Hear me out... The past 2 weeks have been interesting for Gold. Price broke out of a HTF down trend range, originating in March/22. The main driver of the bearish price action has been macroeconomic events mainly decisions by the Feds - Interest rates are one of their main tools for bringing down inflation. With the last CPI reading being less than the previous reading, and not only being less but also being under forecasted, that signals inflation is potentially coming down. Given this news, it becomes higher probability the Feds lower their extreme stance with rate hikes. A 50bps rate hike is currently an 85% favourite for the next FOMC meeting, where as 1 month ago the majority of investors favoured a 75bps rate hike. This news is being priced in, as we saw last week Gold was nothing but bullish. This week, however, it is likely price may need to retrace; the market tends to overreact, and it may need to reconsider the news. Inflation might not be going away as quick as the most recent news would suggest. What do you think, is it beginning to look like sells are more favourable - or do you think bulls still have control?
My Chart:
Blue Solid Line = HTF Downtrend
Blue dotted line = potentially new HTF Downtrend
Red Boxes = Zones of potential resistance for price to get through
Red line = My rough description of where price action could go in the short term
My Chart:
Blue Solid Line = HTF Downtrend
Blue dotted line = potentially new HTF Downtrend
Red Boxes = Zones of potential resistance for price to get through
Red line = My rough description of where price action could go in the short term