做空

MQP PRESENTS - MY AMERICAN DREAM PART 3.9 BEAR ROUTE FINAL DRAFT

已更新

HEADER - This is final draft for bear route. This replaces 3.8. This draft with completed due diligence.

SUMMARY - Again, total conviction unless facts (price action) change. But If it is going to happen, it has to happen like this. If not, it's doing something else very different and completely recognizable. Regressions say that route is huge under dog, low move to until end of Thursday before first cover.

DETAILS - I should've cauught the spike to 1803-04 just now. Just didn't have enough energy to map it out last night. Will add notes soon.

NOTES 1 - WAVE ACTION.
1) I missed the turn of the wave for this set up
2) it is the navy wave, marked with top extension path that curves down next Wednesday
3) I missed it because it is has ALREADY TURNED (negative slope) but it is due for one more "wiggle" before the crash like this:

4) and why should it turn again? bc its 3X is about to finish (this is all about odds):

5) FOR CHART ABOVE:
a) so if you look at the first ellipse, it turned there, but awkwardly bc of vertical move down
b) but it did so while its leading lines WERE STILL RISING
c) so it will do the same thing, turn a little bit up and turn hard down
d) that's marked by the hi-light
e) but THAT HILIGHT DOESN'T ACCOUNT FOR THE HOLIDAY
f) so it SHOULD BE WED AND THURSDAY FOR THE A-B-C MOVE

6) AGAIN, TOTAL CONVICTION UNTIL FACTS CHANGE.

7) HERE'S 1 MORE BREAKING DOWN THAT 3X ORANGE WAVE:

for chart above:
a) so that's the same orange wave broken down into halves
b) it is approaching "perfect short" by virtue of momentum
c) so its 1/2 (navy) is leading it down
d) it's 1/4 (dark gray) is leading its 1/2 down
f) BUT ITS 1/8 is OUT OF POSITION
g) like the hi-light last time, I moved it forward and it will be "in position about Tuesday
h) odds of its blue wave moving up in this situation has to be less than 1//32 because its majors are pressing down hard.

NOTES 2 - WITH ALL THAT SAID...
1) history says this setup only holds 4-6 days, and the major move MUST HAPPEN WED-THUR
2) regressions from 49-600 are now neutral or lean a bit short
3) that's basically the ground of this methodology
4) again, have a good weekend

CHRISTMAS DAY NOTES 3 - FINAL RECONCILIATION DRAFT
1) final recon draft is when a a move is "make or break"
2) I will publish when markets reopen bc I need the date setting to reset
3) so I don't have to make my own (it doesn't when you zoom, it just moves)

11:50 AM ET - ROUGH LOOK OF RECON DRAFT

for chart above
1) in theory, bear route should be 4:1
2) but if that spike happens on left side of that circle (which is 1 in 5),
3) then it's bull 3:1 almost immediately
4) so it's a weird inflection

NOTES 5 -- volume doesn't say spike should happen but...

for chart above:

1) a specific "angle" or ratio of IRL still say respect that danger
2) that line needs to break, it just has to hold under it for 24-30 hours and bear route shout hit hard
3) we should know Monday night into Tuesday morning
4) consider more insurance when market reopens, which should be 11:00 AM or 4:00 PM ET Monday

8.06 PM MON NIGHT* AWAY FROM MY PC...
1) I am now long with short insurance
2) my reasoning is this: bears HAVE ZERO EXCUSE TO NOT CRUSH THIS RIGHT NOW
3) and if they miss this opportunity, bulls still have a runaway setup

4) will post more when I can later...

5) from my phone.... I see 1833 soon, say 30 hours, so $1 per hour roughly
6) but it won't happen that way, it should be 1 4-hour bar to 1833

7) that bar... inside next 30 hours

THIS POST HAS ENDED, HERE IS 3.10: