With XAUUSD around 2062.90 today, bullion has shown tentative recovery off its November depths below $1620. However, price remains capped under the pivotal 200-day moving average around $1803, unable to reclaim meaningful support lost since March.
The economic calendar and macro backdrops offer conflicted signals for traders. Cooling inflation and receding Fed rate bets provide some fundamental relief, yet recession fears linger menacingly. Persistent haven demand should buttress dips barring sharp pivots in dollar or yields.
Momentum studies like the trusty 85-day RSI reflect listless indecision - treading water near 50. Global recession worries hamper conviction either way despite calmer inflation data enabling Fed pauses. Geopolitical risks from Russia/China also periodically haunt markets.
M
XAUUSD
y prognosis leans neutral in these opening days of 2024. Range trading under the 200-day average appears the path of least resistance until either growth stabilizes fueling inflation reacceleration, or markets gain clearer Fed pause visibility.
Pivotal technical resistance holds at $1803/$1825, with support at $1970 large put open interest. Close attention must fall on upcoming U.S. data and Fed speakers for trends. Yet choppy holiday conditions may impede momentum near-term.
The economic calendar and macro backdrops offer conflicted signals for traders. Cooling inflation and receding Fed rate bets provide some fundamental relief, yet recession fears linger menacingly. Persistent haven demand should buttress dips barring sharp pivots in dollar or yields.
Momentum studies like the trusty 85-day RSI reflect listless indecision - treading water near 50. Global recession worries hamper conviction either way despite calmer inflation data enabling Fed pauses. Geopolitical risks from Russia/China also periodically haunt markets.
M
XAUUSD
y prognosis leans neutral in these opening days of 2024. Range trading under the 200-day average appears the path of least resistance until either growth stabilizes fueling inflation reacceleration, or markets gain clearer Fed pause visibility. Pivotal technical resistance holds at $1803/$1825, with support at $1970 large put open interest. Close attention must fall on upcoming U.S. data and Fed speakers for trends. Yet choppy holiday conditions may impede momentum near-term.