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XAUUSD Bearish momentum (French & English)

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Bonjour !
Si on regarde le momentum en daily Timeframe , on voit que l'or fait ses plus grosses chutes quand celui-ci tombe sous zéro en même temps qu'une réjection quand il essaye de recover (ce qui correspond à des périodes de faibles volumes, comme actuellement);
Hier, il y a eu le cross à zéro mais l'USDX qui était (/ est encore?) dans sa phase de vérification pour son inverse H&S pattern en yearly Timeframe l'a permis de tenir. Cela est aussi du à l'incertitude vis-à-vis des politiques que la Fed va adopter pour l'économie: hawkish vs Dovish (après tout ces QEs , Hawkish est plus probable);

Comme Black Swan qui pourrait re justifier la hausse de l'or, il y a la menace du variant Delta + qui, si se renforce encore , pourrait poser problème pour l'économie même si on est plutôt dans une dynamique d'effort vaccinal au niveau mondial. Autre évènement du type, qui pourrait justifier une hausse de l'or, serait une faillite des entreprises zombies, maintenues en vie par les QEs précédents, et, qui pourraient faire effet domino et généraliser la crise.
Sinon, le rapport le plus récent du CFTC sur le comex montre que la majorité des gros joueurs commerciaux sont déjà Bearish alors que ceux non-commerciaux sont encore enthousiastes mais moins nombreux (ces derniers ayant tendance à overextend les Tops);
C'est ainsi qu'actuellement, en considérant le marché comme un jeux de probabilité, je dirais short term bearish et mid/long term bullish pour l'or
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Hi !
If we look at the momentum in daily Timeframe , we can see that gold makes its biggest falls when it falls below zero while, at the same time, there's a rejection when it tries to recover (which corresponds to periods of low volumes, as currently);
Yesterday, there was the cross at zero but the USDX which was (/is still?) in its verification phase for its inverse H&S pattern in yearly Timeframe allowed it to hold. This is also due to the uncertainty regarding the policies that the Fed will adopt for the economy: hawkish vs Dovish (after all those QEs , hawkish is more probable);

For Black Swan's like events, which could re-justify the rise of gold , there is the threat of the Delta + variant which, if it strengthens further, could pose a problem for the economy even if we rather are in a dynamic of global vaccine effort. Another event of the type, which could justify that rise, would be a bankruptcy of the zombie companies, kept alive by the previous QEs , and, which could have a domino effect and generalize the crisis.
Otherwise, the most recent CFTC report on the comex shows that the majority of the big commercial players are already Bearish while the non-commercial ones are still enthusiastic but less numerous (as the later tends to overextend Tops);
Thus, currently, considering the market as a probability game, I would say short term bearish and mid/long term bullish for gold

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注释

Note: Average opening price of the commercial players during the period of that report: 1807 (my play is to put short orders at that same level: and if you look how price behaved last days, when it went close to that level, it got rejected faster than it took to reach that point; majority wins)

注释

Update on Fed's policy: doesn't plan to go hawkish right now since, the covid crisis isn't behind yet though the economy is already showing signs of recovery plus inflation (would be Bullish if gold prices were lower but at this level, it's likely mixed news) -> (I will think about that and update here asap)

注释

"Gold gained traction on Thursday despite a report from the World Gold Council that indicated global gold demand declined in the first half of 2021 from the same period in 2020, as investment in the precious metal dropped by 60%."
It's the pullback in the DXY that fueled the current rise; because of Fed's Dovish policy extension judging that the economy hasn't recovered yet, though it shows signs of.

注释

The current rise doesn't look sustainable because it has solely been fueled by the DXY's fall.. (volumes/global demand are really low which has been confirmed by the WGC this morning; also, the 10-year Treasury note TMUBMUSD10Y, 1.265% was yielding 1.26%);
but, it could take some time before gold's price fall (between weeks & 1-2 months), towards Fed's next meeting, since Powell plans to remain Dovish for the moment.
That Dovishness could lead to DXY falling again, making gold rise or, like we've been seing last days and weeks, making it dodge its due fall trading sideways.

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