GOLD - COT report full analysis

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I repost here my weekend's COT analysis what I posted on twitter as a private idea 2 days ago.
We were waiting for today's gold pop.

The Commitment of Traders report ( COT ) is published at the close of every Friday's trade and it always shows the Tuesday COT data. The formula for Blees rating uses the Commercial Traders net contract holdings at the date of the current COT report. We inserted the Blees rating into the daily chart .

If we accept that the bear market in gold ended in 2015 December we have to accept the fact that the Blees rating must be used with the commercial net short position and open interest in the bull market...
In the bear market the Blees rating at 100 meant that price slowly turning up and we will have some kind of a rally. When these rallies topped the Blees never reached the 0 level usually it was turning down from 30-40, and sometimes already from 60-70.

In 2015 December and 2016 January price was in a range for 2 months and the Blees were near to 100 for weeks. It was a very bullish sign. At the same time the commercial net short position was at extreme low levels: below 100k. For a few days it was near to zero!
From the 1st of Feb to 22nd March the net short went up : it was between 100 and 200k.
From the 22nd March to 13th June net short positions were between 200 and 300k. But there was an interesting thing at the last 2 weeks of May. The net short position dropped by 100k in 2 weeks...
Commercials were closing their shorts in the first correction. At that time gold printed its ICL.
From the 13th of June to 27th Sept the commercial net short climbed up above 300k. It was a record high level.
In July-August- September the commercial long positions were coming down slowly from 470k to 410k but price was just in a range. And when we had the steep drop at the beginning of October commercials immediately closed 25% of their short positions in a week. The net short positions dropped by 100k by this week Tuesday...
At the same time the blees popped to 35 . Though at the bear market a 35 blees were not an important number for a rally to begin based on the 30th May Blees rating jump and commercial net short drop we will have a strong rally again.
评论: Just a short reminder: daily swing will be completed at 1265.21$.
The rally will shift gear at that point. DO NOT TRY TO SHORT AT RESISTANCES.
This is going to be a powerful rally this time.
评论: We are under "bull protection".
I hope you enjoy...
评论: It's very exciting to watch how banks are preparing
the fleece of small players.
THey've stopped out the shorts at the range breakout.
Now they are entering withthe shorts at lower prices again in the last big hourly candle.
Though we are just testing back the daily swing level.
评论: It's too late for a lower low.
If they wanted a lower low could have been a lower low in the last 8 days.
评论: I will come out with a new gold post today.
I few people are getting nervous again.
I think there is nothing to worry about guys. We are just bouncing from the daily 10 EMA and I think by the close we will be around 1268$ : closing above the 200 SMA.
评论: I few people are getting nervous again. = But I see a few people are getting nervous again.
评论: The contract dump starts again today. ( No question this is an american seller "it" doesn't like to trade in the night)
It's very important if natural buying pressure could win again this paper manipulation today.
This can't last for long. One will have to give up. Buck looks technically stronger atm, but when two such manipulated securities involved you never know...

It's been a pretty freaken' strong rally which, obviously doesn't help Gold at all). I wish we had something similar in Gold.

So far today we crushed last before one resistance on the way to 100.00, breaking out upwards of what originally looked like a bearish flag! 50MA crossed in a bullish manner its 100MA counterpart last week and the 200MA yesterday. The indicators also don't look very bearish. With all the respect, it's hard to see a strong bullish case for Gold in these circumstances...

The short side of the long looks a bit strong for my liking
VirtualFax bracken
Same here
There is a good chance of this happening. One more leg down. Check this EW count.
+1 回复
pedrolbe pbartashevich
"i think the chance is 0.0000000001% for 1200$"...
and that´s how you loose money..
VirtualFax pbartashevich
I have come up with the same potential scenario. Though I wouldn't sell my longs yet but, at least, will hedge if the pattern continues developing within the channel.

Apri thanks for great medium term insight. A great analyst to bring a balance view with patterns to look at in long and short term I found to manage risk outlook to make a personal decision if you want to keep through the bumps (unexpected retracements to be expected) and which pump you might encounter with deep retracements I found with retrace and resistance to skip> with daily and weekly insight from weekly to hourly charts that have been very good with both sentiments in either bull and bear. Having the balance with Apri insight which so incredible and a master of his field and Steve in his just brings it so together for risk to hold the ride or drop as each one decides to a plan of his commitment. It's a privilege to see Apri at work and thanks again. As I am in my neck with jnug and nug keeping my finger on the pulse to manage risk the best in my swing trading Apri has given my most insight.
Do you trust this?
I love his software i know its giving a sell signal, but I wouldn't dare to short it now.
It's extremely dangerous.
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