Where is bitcoin's bottom? Have we seen this before?

2018年12月4日

I've compared bitcoin 2018 to bitcoin 2014-2015, the pattern rhymes and is a useful comparison. Here I explained why 3,000 is likely - descending triangle breakdown target on a log scale is a 50% breakdown from 6k. Triangle breakdown nearly complete at time of posting.
The previous bear market is useful, however, NASDAQ's dot com bubble and crash provides a different insight into the extent of the selloff before a bottom is found. Note: timelines here are chosen to show similarities behind charts. Most important TA for btc is the 1D (1W) with 120, 200 and 350 MAs (20, 30 & 50).

Similarities:
- strong bull run, low highs and higher lows, prior highs (resistance) later act as support
- RSI stays in oversold range for many periods, ranging back and forth
- steep run up, strong sell off at peak, flash rebound to a lower high, and then another strong sell off

Differences:
- btc consolidation period lasts very long, very short for IXIC
- in addition to lower highs, NASDAQ also had lower lows, bitcoin held a low of 6k for most of 2018

How NASDAQ helps:
Prior lows on NASDAQ align with prior lows/highs on the bull run. I added values to NASDAQ's run up to mimic bitcoin price levels, these may help find btc bottom.
If btc falls like IXIC, we could see a drop to 3k with a break down to about ~2900 and a strong bounce up from 3k. This is a move i have been expecting for months, however IXIC chart shows that this bounce may be a bull trap. May get rejected around 5k with a hidden bearish divergence. If this happens we could see a selloff to 1800 and bottom there, if we fall similar to NASDAQ.

i remain bullish for Jan-Feb timeline as the MAs discussed above should roll under price and I am optimistic on the VanEck ETF proposal.