After redrawing some trend lines and looking at what bitcoin is doing, it still seems bitcoin is in a falling wedge. Which is of course a pattern which normally breaks to the upside. Sellers are showing early signs of exhaustion, even though the macro trend; encapsulated within the wedge hasn't changed. I think we will follow this pattern and get a breakout around early spring as chart patterns usually breakout early about 70-85% of the way through. This would line up with a test of the .786 fib.
If we do bounce from the fib at ~5.4k we would most likely make a bullish divergence on the weekly from.
Also, if we do in fact bounce from the .786 fib at 3120 the RSI will probably return to 30 or lower. So it may make a lower low or a double bottom on the weekly. This would be a hidden bullish divergence. This may not happen with the RSI but seems possible.
If we do bounce from the fib at ~5.4k we would most likely make a bullish divergence on the weekly from.
Also, if we do in fact bounce from the .786 fib at 3120 the RSI will probably return to 30 or lower. So it may make a lower low or a double bottom on the weekly. This would be a hidden bullish divergence. This may not happen with the RSI but seems possible.
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We may also make a hidden bullish divergence on the weekly if we bounce from 5.4k as predicted. The RSI will probably return to 30 or lower meaning the RSI would have been a lower low (or neutral) while the price making a higher low. This would be a signal of the end of the long-term downtrend and a reversal to the upside..