BTC: Why this ascending triangle is bearish, not bullish
I've seen many charts of people eagerly proclaiming that the bottom is in, because an ascending triangle is forming, and that is super bullish!
Well sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but most of the time, and ascending triangle in a bearmarket is a bearish continuation pattern.
And this here shows all the signs of such a pattern:
1. Volume is declining more and more
2. Strong impulse move from 6500 to 3100, and then long sidewayish ping/pong action
3. Volume not high enough yet to be bottom
Here's an excellent video explaining this pattern:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdfVMK4...
Apart from that, why is BTC taking so long to decide?
1d and 3d bbands are still quite wide, need to narrow more.
Also 1w bband is approaching fast.
Most of the time, the ascending triangle in such a configuration breaks downwards between 50-75% of triangle completion.
On bitmex, we're a bit over half of triangle completion, so it can still go on doing this boring ping-pong for weeks until it hits the upper resistance line.
Also 3d and 1w stoch RSI are still massively overbought.
This let's me think that the likelihood for a bearish continuation with a final low is at around 80%.
But BTC could surprise us with a weird upwards break. This would need to happen with large volume. But the probability for that is maximum 20% imho.
Well sorry to be the bringer of bad news, but most of the time, and ascending triangle in a bearmarket is a bearish continuation pattern.
And this here shows all the signs of such a pattern:
1. Volume is declining more and more
2. Strong impulse move from 6500 to 3100, and then long sidewayish ping/pong action
3. Volume not high enough yet to be bottom
Here's an excellent video explaining this pattern:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQdfVMK4...
Apart from that, why is BTC taking so long to decide?
1d and 3d bbands are still quite wide, need to narrow more.
Also 1w bband is approaching fast.
Most of the time, the ascending triangle in such a configuration breaks downwards between 50-75% of triangle completion.
On bitmex, we're a bit over half of triangle completion, so it can still go on doing this boring ping-pong for weeks until it hits the upper resistance line.
Also 3d and 1w stoch RSI are still massively overbought.
This let's me think that the likelihood for a bearish continuation with a final low is at around 80%.
But BTC could surprise us with a weird upwards break. This would need to happen with large volume. But the probability for that is maximum 20% imho.
评论:
If BTC daily candle closes at or above MA200/log resistance, the trade is cancelled and bullish breakout confirmed.