And this was it! A WXYXZ pattern. So beautifully portrayed by and easily seen into the the indicators.
I'm really not going to go into much detail here, because those who have been following me already know what's going on pretty much. I listed this off as a scenario, and its going to happen.
Though, this post does say short, I think we need a bounce here to a B level. Even though I did just enter a short at 9150 for a few hour - trade, I think its imperative that we get more bounce here before we really start to go lower. Everything is just really oversold. I do NOT think we bounce a lot. 10k is actually a very target. $9.6k is more realistic to me before we descend down to the 7.5k or lower area. That is when I open up a short and just walk away from the screen for a few days haha.
Remember, we have a very strong support line there at the white line. Which I find to be really the only relevant support, other than a . Notice that the extension for this is a . I think if we break $7.5k, then 6k is definitely a strong support that we could find a reversal at. Anything below will definitely be monitored and updated on this post.
Good luck guys, hope you guys are playing it safe out there!
Guys, I wish I could be more bullish than this for this B wave, but for now, I can't. So here are the setups for a small short, and a decent long.
Possible path, right now we are channeling until we break this resistance.
So lets say it does fall from the channel. I think that that would almost be too bearish, with the fact that we are already oversold by so much, we need more relief to the downtrend than what is being showed here for this supposed "B" wave.
This is still a hypothetical situation, but this could also serve as an alternative wave count. Where wave 1 was very extended, wave 3 was shorter therefore, wave 5 is shorter and resonates at the .618 level at $8,200.
This is if it falls from this channel. I see need of bullish divergence and retests of lower lows before we get a sharp bounce on the B wave. So just keep this in mind. This is not the main wave count, but I want to show what is possible.
Just passed thru the channel resistance. But guys, we have crazy resistance at the $9500 level. 1, wave E cannot be longer than wave C because wave C was shorter than wave A.
So .786 extension of wave C is right at 9500. Second resistance line would intersect right there. AND we have a pretty big sell wall there.
1 hr Stoch has been pretty overbought for a while, along with the 2 and 3 hr charts. So I would expect some drop here soon.
I'm not saying we cant go higher, but I think we need to go lower first. Be careful, Be careful, be careful if you are a bull.
Didn't quite finish this TA because It was dropping pretty hard as I started it, but I wanted to show you all before something crazy happens. Here are support levels and resistances. I think its very likely that we fall due to an ABC count on the B wave, and I'm pretty bearish right now. I'm just waiting on more confirmation to enter a position. But Guys, I'm just incredibly bearish. And if we find support here somehow, and go up, no doubt in my mind I will enter a short.
Alright, guys, here's the fun TA i've been waiting on! I didn't want to get into this because I guess I just wanted more confirmation of how this would go. But notice the similarities in these too drops.
We have the same support to the drop in the box, along with that volume pattern i mentioned before. So how do we make targets? Well a 1.618 extension of this previous drop from the local fib would extend us down to a double bottom where our previous low was, at $6.3k. But we notice on the last drop to the left, the last wave down was .786% of its previous drop. So if we apply that to this, then it'll leave us down at $7k. Thats our reversal pocket (indicated in the green box). Now, if we drop below that, then we could be in a heep of trouble. But I really just don't think that that is likely.
If you noticed in my last post, I've been trying out the pitchfork. I'm good at applying elliot wave with channels, so why not add on some extra power with the pitch fork. Notice the pitchfork I'm using on this current downtrend. I'll go into detail with that on the next post!
Here we go guys, how we move through this channel for the next day or 2 is how we manage each zone's "responsibilities. The blue zone is just a 1.5x extension from the medial. And the medial is just the previous channels' resistance. Based on our movements through the pitchfork, we can have a gauge on momentum when wave count is properly applied. This will allow us to quickly notify support and resistance zones where we can look for order flips.
I urge you all to keep in mind that we get a higher high above 9.5k, then you can damn near disregard this. We must keep pushing lower for this pitchfork to remain valid. Meaning the wave count must be correct. If you can properly apply wave count to other TA tools, then Jesus is it beautiful.
Remember, I do expect a bounce here to $9,250. But because we got that crossover on the 55 30 minute EMA, and we breached 9k and other major support zones. This sell-off should be pretty crazy. I can't argue enough how much patience is important here for the bulls. Don't dive in if you want to hit the bottom. If you don't care to hit the bottom, then just WAIT for reversal. You can end up with a similar (or most likely better) position if you just wait for that hard snap to occur like the last time we hit $6k. Plus, you'll have a much easier time breathing knowing we are on an uptrend.
Good luck guys! Remember, I believe this downtrend is confirmed. But there is no telling how low we go. Ladder profits along the way to reduce market risk. And just add back to your shorts when we hit critical resistances.
So this is my short-term layout. I definitely look to take profit in the 8.2-8.3k region, and possibly flip my order. I think our 5 waves end there, and we could see some support at this level based off of where we dropped before.
I'd also like to point this out, just for an argumentive case. Is that on the 1 hour chart, we see that the candles have successfully been supported by this support line. It possible that we reverse, not likely, but let's not lose guard here.
So we're making great progress on our targets, with wave 1 concluded. Working on wave 2 right now, and I'll have an update for that. I'm having a hell of a lot of fun with these pitchforks, they're so freaking fun and easy to use. All it does its make the parallel channels for you :D.
We found support at the cross between the medial and the outer layer for the last drop. And when we fell into the white medial section, we snapped up and my buy order was pleased.
So, what i've done was create a new pitchfork based on this previous fall, and hopefully we can use it for this next fall. Where the medial section is at the end of wave 1. Our bottom support is supported be the previous channel's resistance, and our top resistance is a parallel line to the beginning of wave 1. It's looking lovely. I'll show what's going on now as well as what I'm looking for before I enter my next long and short!
You guessed it!! ANOTHER FREAKING PITCHFORK.
Remember, all a pitchfork is is a channel. And a channel can be considered a flag when it sits at an angle. This is angle up! Hence... BEAR FLAG. This WILL fall!
Now, do we extend to $8838? Yes, I believe so. I think we still need to go higher and give the downtrend some rest. So if you decide to go long here. Please wait for confirmation. And if it falls from support and it doesn't snap back quickly. Then you're probably in trouble. Bitcoin is a ticking time bomb. So use tight stop losses for long positions in these scalps.
So i had thought this B wave was a little too quick in consolidation and needed some more time before we fell a lot again, but I had certainly fell for the trap of us going lower. I lost a good 2% as I noticed what happened right when I woke up. I even dreamed about the reversal hahaha. But, do we still end up going lower? I believe so, I think these waves going up get rejected. That is simply my bias. I don't think the bulls survive this thing. But, we must always keep the open eye.
Stopped right at resistance, but do we go forward? Its either now or never for the bulls. If we fail to break through this area with volume, they may not continue higher. A break of $9700 could signal a rally to $10k. But so far there are a lot of resistances this thing needs to break through:
55 3 hr EMA
Stoch RSI overbought region
It's already gained 10% in a very short period of time, it's hard to think it goes higher here.
What the bulls need is a level retrace to a normal fib level. If they fail to do so, then guys, you know what this looks like? A bear flag ready to fall to $7k.
Good gawd... We all know what this formation means... I haven't entered a short yet, because I woke up a little late, and it looks like we could possible get a retest of that high. If we do, then BOMBS AWAY
Guys, what do you notice in these pictures?
The set up is very similar to the feb 6th drop, right? We are NOT bullish yet! Even though it may seem like it, 12 hour indicators are all showing bearishness. So based on the crash of feb 6th, it shows that we can still be pretty bearish/oversold in our indicators, and another big drop can STILL happen.
Now, I'm not saying to just dump on the market right now. But if you are a bull you should be careful. If we break 10.5k, then I'd have to consider this a bullish run. We can still extend to 10k, its very possible. But we have massive resistance at those points, and it would lead to nearly every time frame under 8hrs to be overbought in the stoch RSI. We're losing strength on this run. But we must be careful, and use tight stop losses if you are a bull. If you're a bear, your stop losses could probably be a little wider, around 3-4%. The bulls are fighting hard, but they're creating a more narrow path to grow. And narrow paths get destroyed.
This is why I think I should wait before I get into a short. I think that we finish 5 small waves here to 10k.
Here are my bullish counts. But man... Are these bogus. Guys, I'm just so biased on the bear side. All I see are ABCs rather than 12345. I even saw an analyst or two that said the last high and low (of what I call wave AB) were 1 and 2. But look at how low 2 gets... seriously. The only thing that divides those from a full 100% retrace is a wick. It's literally like a 96% retrace.
Like I said, this will have to break 10.5k for me to really get bullish. This just seems to be a pump and dump to me. I mean, look at how bullish the retrace would be after the completion of those first 5 waves (on the first option) are. That completely looks leveraged to me. Where the bulls are just holding onto dear life. Maybe so that they can get a higher price for the short?
Sorry that I am so biased here, but it's been this gut (and deeply analyzed moment) since the start of the last uptrend. I'd really need to be convinced to go long for the long-term here. I think we go down. It's just a matter of HOW we do it. Figuring out HOW is typically the most difficult part. Because as a day trader you uses margin trading, I try to really nail the top here. I use very tight stop losses and really work to manage my risk. But when we get in moments like these, I can't help but to think we go down, and get a little more generous with stop losses. Because that is how much I honestly believe we are going down based on indicators. It's not just because I want it to happen. But nothing quite shows me otherwise, YET!
I guess this proves my point even more. See how easily we can break this down into 3s? I think we bounce here to $9.5k before dropping again maybe. Very upset that I woke up late and couldn't catch the top. I definitely thought we'd get another try for the high, so that's my mistake. And I probably should have shorted as soon as we broke support. But I guess my patience is killing me here.