This will be bottomed between 24-25 and DXY should be weakening from there to form a real overheat phase. I think we now have had a stagflation phase already for 20 months first and an overheat after it because FRB rising rates and they inverted inflation. In the overheat phase A shares will rise to pullback about 30% of the collapsing like 2008 crashing because it's inflation sensitive till the China inflation is high enough to hike. Also if the weighted JPY hikes before Renminbi then it's over too. After the Renminbi hike or weighted JPY hike, A shares will go to sleep for 4-5 years to form very very long term stagflation phase. 7 years each, and 1 year lasting. How we called it in English? "impotence"?
The DXY weakness is still supporting this chart but chose your sectors wisely in a condition where may be Yuan’s hikes. (Miners but not Maotai)
A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
What if you've invested China SZSE index
What if you've invested XAUCNY
1; The Hong Kong monetary authority (HKMA) is selling us dollar reserves at hk $7.85.
2; Historically, the Hong Kong dollar will raise interests rates and tightening.
3; The hang seng index is forming a mid-term top, correcting in 20 months, an overheat period.
4. Hong Kong investors should sell shares, pay attention to core inflation, and hold Hong Kong dollars, or buy a one-year term deposit.
5; Don't buy dollars blindly.
6; Pay attention to Hong Kong property market, whether Hong Kong house prices fall will be decided by the Hong Kong dollar loan interests rates.
This is a signal, please don't miss it!
After that low, we may have some huge market change in Renminbi or the BOJ, the Japanese Yen may do the same thing like 2013 again.
Let see, There’re some opportunities in this market but need to be careful to choose the sectors. Again, the core inflation related growth is the choice.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
1; trade war pausing.
2; Brexit results in risk on.
3; China QE.
4; Weighted Yen easing.
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.