Today, I'm showing you guys shanghai composite index chart which is measured by DXY. I'm not calling the end of world or something pessimism. As we can see, the index is lack of the 7th. swing before touching down ideal inflection zone. Last week China CPI data fallen to 1.8%. Now the CPI tends to be falling lower which is too low for achieving GDP target. We got clearly warning from Deputy governor of the people's bank of China Mr. Yigang. We got USDCNY weekly closed high enough to break out for it's final target around 7.2 (head- shoulder PO 6.0-6.6-7.2). It's going to be ugly for global indexes when it breaks out. I'm feeling something familiar in the market before last year's striking. A squeezing is incoming again. Take care.
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SPX500 measured by DXY
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Be patient this cycle is a 2001 positive cycle but not like 2008 cycle.
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Nasdaq new high gold rising and DXY compensation. Looks like everything is going well...... Before renminbi strikes again.
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There is no turning point without capital squeezing and volitality and extreme speculation sentiment. (Check out those fibs they're adjusted finely.)
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time window 0310- 0710
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Kiwi is crashing, by the way, as a risk on leading currency is at risk off mode now.
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SPX/DXY is at 21.5 now.
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For those who are singing long songs, this is still bearish.
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We now have Renminbi striking as predicted but the market isn't moving yet. it's very very suspicious that indexes are breaking out to new highs. Before FRB rising rates second time, we could see some DXY pullback for a bounce off from 21.3 level.
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A kindness warning. Don't buy it! A shares is like our old slogan that "using cold water for boiling frogs", would you like to be that frog?
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It is beginning.
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After Brexit from Jul. 2016 to Dec. 2016 the weighted JPY is weakening for 6 months already. NOW everybody saw it with the last impulse. For me it's an alert. Be careful with stocks markets now it's not sustainable without BOJ.
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From my point of view, the 7th. swing is an healthy wave for reaching 2% inflation target and a big chance to buy stocks at bottom. I'm waiting for this crashing for a long time and also China social funds ( retirement funds money) is waiting for this bottom like an hungry predator.
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Today we have confirmed that Renminbi will be tighten in 2017 and should rise rates in the next year.
www.yahoo.com/news/c...36655--business.html
This will be bottomed between 24-25 and DXY should be weakening from there to form a real overheat phase. I think we now have had a stagflation phase already for 20 months first and an overheat after it because FRB rising rates and they inverted inflation. In the overheat phase A shares will rise to pullback about 30% of the collapsing like 2008 crashing because it's inflation sensitive till the China inflation is high enough to hike. Also if the weighted JPY hikes before Renminbi then it's over too. After the Renminbi hike or weighted JPY hike, A shares will go to sleep for 4-5 years to form very very long term stagflation phase. 7 years each, and 1 year lasting. How we called it in English? "impotence"?
www.yahoo.com/news/c...36655--business.html
This will be bottomed between 24-25 and DXY should be weakening from there to form a real overheat phase. I think we now have had a stagflation phase already for 20 months first and an overheat after it because FRB rising rates and they inverted inflation. In the overheat phase A shares will rise to pullback about 30% of the collapsing like 2008 crashing because it's inflation sensitive till the China inflation is high enough to hike. Also if the weighted JPY hikes before Renminbi then it's over too. After the Renminbi hike or weighted JPY hike, A shares will go to sleep for 4-5 years to form very very long term stagflation phase. 7 years each, and 1 year lasting. How we called it in English? "impotence"?
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This is NOT a signal.
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The first round inflations are very high with Renminbi's hike, about 8%- 10%. You should be ready for the huge rising price in China with interests higher.
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After the MLF, PBOC raised SLF (short-term lending facility 1D,7D,1M) by 0.1%, ( 1D by 0.35%) the Renminbi 10Y bonds market is falling and the interests going higher, a tightening among those big banks happens. It's very soon that the long term interests shall rise and we should have a rising cycle starts form Spring 2017. It's a very good sign of the A shares and the global inflations.
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A warning !!! Renminbi is gonna collapse in March!!! We now know in the meeting PBOC is showing the weakness again and refused to hike. CFETS, SDR basket, BIS basket, are all near the edge of Abyss!!! Be careful! Sell all of your A shares !!!
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Horizon breaking out, 28-35-42, may go to 49, could be slow but after US dollar hiking pause, major wave.
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There's a sign of the Chinese speculators are piling into buying A shares now. This is the bad sentiments from our analysis. We suggest taking all profits and waiting for the pull back before the August close. Our prediction of Renminbi's hike is still valid.
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New evidence is showing that weighted Yen rising and inflation rising won’t hurt SPX500 and DAX30. If we look back 2010 when the same situation happened the A shares is topping after several Yuan’s hikes. Be careful here, China market may slowly go down with hikes. In fact, China should do something like the USA at this point for supporting the stock market but I doubt it.
The DXY weakness is still supporting this chart but chose your sectors wisely in a condition where may be Yuan’s hikes. (Miners but not Maotai)
The DXY weakness is still supporting this chart but chose your sectors wisely in a condition where may be Yuan’s hikes. (Miners but not Maotai)
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New evidence is supporting Yuan's hike soon, please choose your sectors wisely... this index is still going higher with banks, miners, industrials, chemical materials, core inflations...
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Bearish now, only hike can save it, but I doubt it.
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Bearish now, only hike can save it, but I doubt it.
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Bullish now. (It's very hard for analysis with Renminbi's uncertainty)
A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
A Renminbi's small rates cut on Nov. 2017 is predicted today, there might be a second cut on Dec. 2017, then a flat and a pegging with US dollar. Bullish signal for China stocks market in 20 months but chose your sectors wisely ( chuangye sector may be the best one).
This's the newest prediction which will meet the 6.83 plat form and an USDCNY pegging for 20 months for sharing the same inflation with the USA (will be lower after 20 months pegging).
President Trump prefers regularity and force, this is what he wants and also fulfills the China new dictator's growing appetites... ugly than Trump.
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Very hard one to predict: A shares indexes are Bearish now, please choose your sectors wisely.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
A Renminbi's deposit rates hike may have been hidden by the PBOC. Something like the year of 2010 is happening in the markets now. When the western people are enjoying the inflations and the stocks rising the China markets are taking hits by the Japanese Yen's rising. If China hikes the US hikes shall be paused soon, they let the risks open fire at will.
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China stock markets are bearish now only the deposit hiking may change the future. It’s very clear food is over and the core will be used by central banks. Funny thing is that when every road leads to an dead end, there’s the only way to do it right now, but will they do it? Stupidizing...
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Watching it very carefully now...
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Stay put with cash, we don't know if Chinese Yuan deposit hikes will crash it or not.
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We're approaching USDCNY 11th. Aug. 2015 same level here.
What if you've invested China SZSE index
What if you've invested XAUCNY
What if you've invested China SZSE index
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Risk warning, Hong Kong hang seng index topping:
1; The Hong Kong monetary authority (HKMA) is selling us dollar reserves at hk $7.85.
2; Historically, the Hong Kong dollar will raise interests rates and tightening.
3; The hang seng index is forming a mid-term top, correcting in 20 months, an overheat period.
4. Hong Kong investors should sell shares, pay attention to core inflation, and hold Hong Kong dollars, or buy a one-year term deposit.
5; Don't buy dollars blindly.
6; Pay attention to Hong Kong property market, whether Hong Kong house prices fall will be decided by the Hong Kong dollar loan interests rates.
1; The Hong Kong monetary authority (HKMA) is selling us dollar reserves at hk $7.85.
2; Historically, the Hong Kong dollar will raise interests rates and tightening.
3; The hang seng index is forming a mid-term top, correcting in 20 months, an overheat period.
4. Hong Kong investors should sell shares, pay attention to core inflation, and hold Hong Kong dollars, or buy a one-year term deposit.
5; Don't buy dollars blindly.
6; Pay attention to Hong Kong property market, whether Hong Kong house prices fall will be decided by the Hong Kong dollar loan interests rates.
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Holding your breath, picking bottom soon. We've predicted a fireworks in months from China stock market. The PBOC should raise deposite interests in this case, start from 1.5% one year, it can go as high as 4.14%, we're talking about historical high in 12 months.
This is a signal, please don't miss it!
This is a signal, please don't miss it!
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Due to the PBOC money policy mistakes, we have a crashing into 28-30 point where this index measured by the DXY. Please zoom out and look at the trend line has been drawn from 2006 low. The pitch fork line lower edge is showing around 28, the trend line looks like will be breached.
After that low, we may have some huge market change in Renminbi or the BOJ, the Japanese Yen may do the same thing like 2013 again.
Let see, There’re some opportunities in this market but need to be careful to choose the sectors. Again, the core inflation related growth is the choice.
After that low, we may have some huge market change in Renminbi or the BOJ, the Japanese Yen may do the same thing like 2013 again.
Let see, There’re some opportunities in this market but need to be careful to choose the sectors. Again, the core inflation related growth is the choice.
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We repeat the Shanghai Composite Index 2200 target and DXY higher to 98 or 102 target. From the leading index point if view, China term of trade will be worse. It looks like a ban trade to China around world will happen, the door is closing, from inside and outside. Crazy stagflation in Renminbi, and Chinese populist in charge the power.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
Stock market should drop to September before the FRB, could be worse, slowly drop into December and US dollar hike again.
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Technically speaking, this index measured by DXY has been over sold, investors should have an opportunity after Renminbi's personal deposit interests raise. This chart is showing a capital flow will flow from US dollar into China Shenzhen stock market. We don't know what will cause this, but it looks like something will happen later to change the market.
1; trade war pausing.
2; Brexit results in risk on.
3; China QE.
4; Weighted Yen easing.
1; trade war pausing.
2; Brexit results in risk on.
3; China QE.
4; Weighted Yen easing.
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If this is the beginning of all melt-up we should have the raise soon.
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Please click "load new bars" to see we've reached pitch fork bottom now. You guys also can see the fake head has formed on Jan. 2018 at the pitch fork upper edge line. Due to the food stock sector in shanghai index need more corrections is too high, this can go lower to 24-26 area. We prefer to look at Shenzhen index more than shanghai index.
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Source: yahoo
finance.yahoo.com/ne...asian-042310529.html
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.
finance.yahoo.com/ne...asian-042310529.html
It’s too early to say it, the Renminbi’s personal deposit interests is still negative, which will make assets price from buying rise to drop. PBOC didn’t understand the negative rules.
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Can go lower with USDCNY higher to 7.1-7.2 area where's to trigger the personal interests hike or cut 1 year loan interests, in the Renminbi.
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good inflection zone, as predicted before. If the ratio rises then the DXY needn't drop too low till the squeezing happens.