So as you can see from the chart, the last time we were this far above the 200MA was March last year (27%). Before that it was 2008 (~50%). Today we are now around 40% away from the 200MA. We are at the top of the trend, under Resistance R3 on the daily, Stochastic doesnt have any more room to go up (computer will probably say no at some point), BB is overstretched. There is also indication that we are starting to form a head and shoulders pattern with left shoulder and head forming on the daily.
Yet the market is still in euphoria (VIX is 15, XVI is 12, US10Y bonds are 1.5%), it seems that everything is just fine.... Until it's not. These types of market movements have happened before, and as the monthly shows, the end result is usually the same.
“When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy.”
— Warren Buffett
Yet the market is still in euphoria (VIX is 15, XVI is 12, US10Y bonds are 1.5%), it seems that everything is just fine.... Until it's not. These types of market movements have happened before, and as the monthly shows, the end result is usually the same.
“When investing, pessimism is your friend, euphoria the enemy.”
— Warren Buffett