A Rising Wedge in the XLE is setting up a short

XLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are displaying significant bearish divergences, and regardless of seasonality, the macro picture is suggesting global slowing of demand for energy. Therefore, the sum of the evidence makes this look like a good short candidate for a swing trade.

Where it gets a little more tricky is deciding how to get short. As mentioned above, there's about a 2/3 chance of a reversal. The problem is that historically speaking, the average moves of the reversals (-8%) aren't much to get excited about. Over the next 30 days, the Options market is anticipating about +/ $8.84 of movement. This aligns nicely with the idea of a breakdown from the wedge, which could take price down to the Point Of Control on the Volume Profile aruond $76.

All things considered, I like the idea of trading this with a defined risk position like a vertical spread. Something like buying the $80 PUT and selling the $78 in the July 1st expiration. This is trading for about a $0.51 debit and would mature to somewhere north of $1.00 if XLE falls to $76 over the next 37 days.

Thanks for reading; all the standard risk disclaimers apply.