XLF has been consolidating within a 6-month symmetrical triangle pattern (from October
15, 2014 low and December 29, 2014 high). The key support lies at 23.78 (March 26, 2015 low), near the triangle lower bounds and the 200 day moving average currently at 23.64. While the 23.78/23.64 support area holds dips, if bulls manage to reclaim 24.54 decisively (April 16, 2015 high near the triangle upper bounds), that would suggest a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 24.78 (March 23, 2015 high) then 25.14 (December 29, 2014 record peak). However, a breakdown below the 23.64 support area would signal topping and weaken towards 22.89 (February 2, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish while above the 200 day moving average
15, 2014 low and December 29, 2014 high). The key support lies at 23.78 (March 26, 2015 low), near the triangle lower bounds and the 200 day moving average currently at 23.64. While the 23.78/23.64 support area holds dips, if bulls manage to reclaim 24.54 decisively (April 16, 2015 high near the triangle upper bounds), that would suggest a triangle breakout and trigger further gains towards 24.78 (March 23, 2015 high) then 25.14 (December 29, 2014 record peak). However, a breakdown below the 23.64 support area would signal topping and weaken towards 22.89 (February 2, 2015 low).
Outlook:
Short term: neutral
Long term: bullish while above the 200 day moving average
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