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One of my favorite coins, XLM!

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Thought I might as well post charts for my other coins, just so people can follow along if they wish, but mostly to catalogue my good and bad moves (as well as WHY I made them at the time). Then I won't have to keep making more charts, and I can just post regular updates. These are my setups for the next bull cycle anyway.

Stellar Lumens is by far one of my favorite coins. It's one of the cryptocurrencies that I expect to use some day in the not so distant future, which is why I hope to accumulate more. I love their mission, and it has really been a savior in my portfolio during this bear market because support for it has been so ridiculously strong. I originally sold around 4000 satoshis when I thought it would go lower, but it ended up holding up much stronger than any of my other coins. Ended up entering in the 3000-3600 range. This is a long term hold for me, and I have also considered consolidating some of my other coins into XLMBTC.

As for analysis, XLMBTC has clearly broken out of the pennant it has been developing all year. It even tested it as new support after making a slightly higher high. Right now, we seem to be forming another pennant or ascending triangle outside of the original larger triangle. This is very bullish until proven otherwise. Soon I expect a breakout towards a new higher high, with a pit stop around 5k, which is pretty much the only resistance over head at this point, as 4k has been continuously weakened.

BUY:
3600-3800
STOP LOSS: I'm hesitant to suggest any stop loss in crypto, as sometimes there are major flash crashes to test supply before a run up (see LTC last December). However, to avoid risk, a sustained breakdown below 3000 would not look good.

SELL:
5000 breakout target
7000
10000+ If we make it up there.
3000 and below, IF we get selling momentum. Rebuy on new bottom.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. This is one of my personal investments, and what I expect to happen. I am not responsible for your own financial decisions. My scenario may very well not play out. This is more for myself than anything else, but I hope that I can provide some insight on trading psychology, particularly with my updates.

-Victor Cobra

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Either we will drop a bit now and retest the orange triangle one more time or we are breaking up now.

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Actually the bigger triangle should be extended out a bit further. We could actually still range in there until the end of December. I'm still aiming for a possible breakout now though.

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We just surpassed our most recent peak (from mid October). Already added a little to my position at 3880 after closing a stagnant trade on another coin. Let's see how high this can go. Big triangle resistance close to 4200.

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Broke out of the little orange pennant. If it pulls back from here, it has a new possible ascending support around 3750. On the other hand, it could test the bigger triangle resistance at 4200.

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Heading towards 4200 now. Let's see what happens.

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I love this slow, steady upward movement with increasing volume. It's much more sustainable than quick pumps. That said, if this thing breaks out above resistance, it'll pump fast. Let's see if we need to retrace a bit before that happens though.

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Closed my additional small position I opened yesterday at 3880 around 4100.

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Re-entered a little lower. I think I'm gonna let my positions ride for the time being.

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Currently testing the upper resistance of the previous triangle as support. If it fails to hold, we will probably move down to one of the points of interest.

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Still testing that new orange support.

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Bounced off nicely. The fact that BAT has broken out of its downtrend (finally) means that the rest of the market can do the same. Canary in the coal mine situation. XLM may pop here now.

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Looks like we MIGHT need to wait. My perspective might have shifted, in that the entire market may just go sideways for another couple months. Good accumulation time.

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Wish there was an SLT/XLM chart because I made a great trade there. Bought in at 2XLM and added a little at 6XLM. Laddered a couple of sells between 18 and 23 XLM for massive gains. Still have 50% of my SLT in case it goes way higher. Hoping to buy back in lower to accumulate more. Hopefully it was a good move.

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If this flag breaks up, we could be on to test 4200 and then 5000. If it breaks down, we ill be back to this previously orange triangle support (now in red). The target for a breakdown is between 3650 and 3750.

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I think it will most likely break down from the above flag/double top because of the high selling volume on the second top. Additionally, we are entering the weekend, and a Coinbase pump can only happen during the week. Buying pressure may fade for the time being.

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Looks like we actually broke up, but volume is low. We need to see what happens at the blue line. If it can't break through, it'll probably drop. But if it does, we might get a surprise run and other alts should follow.

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It should be noted that we have converging resistance overhead (uptrend channel and long term triangle). This is a huge test for XLM bulls right now. If we break through, it would be a great sign for the whole market and may catch everyone by surprise (especially since it's the weekend, and a 3-day weekend in the US). This is our third attempt at breaking the channel resistance this week. We need to get above 4162 first (previous high).

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Will need a lot of volume to break 4200.

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Broke up last night! The rest of the market looks like it's going to slide along support for a while. Pretty weak at the moment. Time will tell if XLM has enough momentum to target 4500-5000. So far, this is not really the monstrous breakout I was expecting, but nothing ever has to go your way in the market. We seem to be struggling in the low 4300 range for now, but at least we've held above the broken triangle pretty well so far. I did enter a small position with my trading stack at 4150.

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If XLM stays up here and pushes higher, we could see some renewed confidence in the market, leading to a surprise uptick in value across the board. It has often been a market leader this past year (sometimes even moving before BTC).

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Hasn't been able to sustain very well, unfortunately for the market. Got up to 4450. Should have sold my small trading position there. Things look pretty weak across the board. Most alts are sliding down towards the lower ends of their supports. They are bouncing at historical support levels, but these bounces are getting immediately sold. If XLM can't stay above the broken triangle, it won't be good, and it will likely get back to the 3600-3700 zone. XRP looks fairly good though, so this could be a sign that the market is just biding its time before a surprise markup. Honestly I shouldn't be trading this market right now, as things are pretty sideways and nebulous.

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If we break below 4150 (broken triangle support), this will not be good. The whole market seems very precarious right now. Likely because the stock market isn't looking to have a good week. XRP and XLM are strangely doing well, as many other big alts look weak. I speculate this has to do with the fact that XRP and XLM have proven themselves to be solid alternatives to fiat, and if we see an economic collapse, these two coins are the most ready for speedy adoption. Other coins rely on big business and a good economy for their success. XLM can function as a pure currency.

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Broke down. If it can't get back above 4150 convincingly soon, it's down to 3690 or so. Traders are milking this sideways action for all it's worth.

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Realized that I forgot to mention the broken bull pennant, which has recently acted as support. Should've seen that as a potential reversal zone. This is actually more bullish than I expected, and bodes really well for XLM in the coming months!

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We may correct a bit here. Hopefully that orange line continues to hold:

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If it continues up from here, we can break 4500 and move on to test 5000.

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If we hold above this blue resistance line over the weekend, it'll be extremely bullish. On the other hand, we may be forming a double top, with a target of the converging support at the orange and red lines (circled in green)

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Back down to the bottom of the year-long pennant. The market looks bad, so it's possible we could break down soon, if support keeps wearing away. At least we still have some buying going on, as shown by the big wicks on these daily candles.

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On the USD chart, we are just barely resting on yearly support. If the market doesn't turn around any time soon, our next support level is at previous resistance, around 5 to 7 cents. Even though Stellar has shown much strength against BTC this year, that trend might be about to end. On a breakdown from here, 7 cents is likely, as is the 2000 satoshi area.

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Looks like we may be headed much lower, unfortunately. I'm thinking about selling some if we break below support, since this has a ways to fall...however, I'm hesitant since I have such a strong belief in Stellar. Can't ignore technical damage though. We still have a little ways to go before we potentially break down out of the pennant (3580 zone). Let's see what happens if and when we get there:

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The reason why I think we could break down is because we failed to hold the uptrend channel and we also failed to hold above the broken triangle, which means the breakout was actually just a fakeout. We need to see the big pennant hold (teal) and make a higher low at least. Otherwise, it's down to 2900-3000 and then 2100. Stellar has a lot of buying support though, so these dips may be short lived. We'll see! Bearish targets are marked with red X's. Bullish targets would be 4500 and then finally a break of the 5000 resistance.

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Last chance for a bounce here before breaking down. One could go long here with a stop below 3500. Considering selling on a breakdown but part of me really doesn't want to be trading this market right now, since it's so crazy. May just end up adding some more if we get to the 7-10 cent range. We have some support between 10 and 11 cents as well.