XRP/比特币做多
"XRP Is Not A Real Crypto" Let Me Tell You Something
已更新
Sorry for the sarcastic title, but I just want to clear the air a bit. This is my opinion, so you don't have to take me seriously if you really disagree...although I'd also love to hear counter-arguments.
Let me start off by explaining what I've been up to since September/October. If you want to get straight to the XRP analysis, skip the following 3 paragraphs:
When I started this Tradingview account, it was for my own personal growth and also to see how good I've become at technical analysis. I lost money in the beginning of 2018 (along with a lot of people), but I took the opportunity to observe a severe bear market and even do my best to figure out where the floor is, as well as where good entry points would be to establish a long term portfolio. I'm young, and I wanted to create a diverse portfolio that may be lucrative in the future. I don't care about how much money I have now. I also just find markets and general psychology fascinating. The visual aspect of TA attracts me because I'm an artist. I find it intuitive to estimate where potential pivot areas will be.
Back in November, I suggested that we would have a buying opportunity soon, as I was seeing some weakness in the market. I did not predict that we would sustain a drop below 6K, but I did speculate that no matter what happened, even if we dropped further, the earliest possible end to the bear market would be sometime in late January/early February, 2019. You can read back on that post (linked at the bottom). The idea was even titled "A Test of Patience." Since September, all of my purchases are in profit, believe it or not (a significant change from most of 2018). The reason why I'm in profit since September is because I bought XRP when it broke out against Bitcoin and Ethereum at MAJOR long term resistance levels. It has still generally remained above or slightly below 30 cents since then, even with Bitcoin breaking down.
In the last few months, I've been slowly establishing positions on coins that I see as having long term bullish potential, but only as I see them showing signs of bottoming out. For example, I entered ETH and LTC only recently at $107 and $32 respectively, I entered NEO in the $6-7 area with my TRX profits, and ONT at $0.60. I also bought NANO a couple of times at $0.80, but it's starting to show weakness, so I haven't added to that one in a while. These buys have potential to go negative, in terms of profit, and I'm prepared for that. But technical indicators and close observation of price flow led me to feel fairly confident about these entries. In addition to adding to certain positions, I've reduced or completely exited my positions in certain coins (GVT, ENG, WTC for example). This is because their potential remains extremely speculative, and their volume is worrying. WTC in particular I think needs an entire rebrand and restructuring if it's going to inspire any significant amount of confidence. I also swapped my entire TRX stack for NEO. TRX actually might very well outperform NEO, but I sense more general positivity from the NEO/ONT community, as well as a much better user experience.
Sorry for the tangent - just wanted to explain what my strategy has been over the last several months. Now onto the analysis.
As you can see, XRPBTC broke down from its uptrend, and has since been grinding down slowly in a rather large falling wedge. This is a bullish pattern, especially since XRP made a big reversal in the fall already, and simply needs to consolidate. I think that once we break out of the wedge, or if the 8800-8900 resistance is broken, we will finally see a rather enormous impulse in XRP. This can happen this week, or it can grind through the wedge for a bit longer.
Fundamentally, I think XRP is positioned to become a bit like the Netflix of crypto. Why do I say this? They've been amassing power in the banking sector quite rapidly. Just as Netflix started out as a video delivery service and making Blockbuster obsolete, XRP has made similarly strategic moves. Their goal is not to be a coin used by banks. Their goal is to TAKE OVER a significant portion of the banking system. They want to BECOME the bank. They want to be "The Standard." I know it's a meme at this point, but it describes their aspirations pretty accurately.
It's always good to look at the long game. This is Ripple's long game. Netflix's long game was to become the go to home theater and online streaming service. Will Ripple succeed? That remains to be seen. However, if you're invested in crypto for the potential life-changing money, I think it would be silly to overlook XRP. Many people hate on it because it's "centralized" and it goes against what many people see to be the original purpose of crypto. If you fundamentally disagree with their mission, then by all means don't buy their coins. It'll be on Coinbase soon, which will give it some more exposure. Remember, Coinbase rumors helped fuel the blow-off rise to $3.50 in December 2017.
As you can see on the long term log chart, we are consolidating similarly to how we were between 2015 and 2017. It took us 2 years to break out of that range, so it's possible we will stay in this USD range for a while yet. I think we can expect a rise to $0.50 at least soon before heading back down to test the lower part of the range. If we DO happen to break down, the next support can be found in the $0.12-0.13 area, as shown in pink. On this chart, I've drawn what a potential bullish scenario would look like. This would mean the next peak might be close to the $30 mark.
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. This is for educational purposes only, and for my own personal reference. Please leave a like and I'm happy to have a discussion about this as well. Open to criticism.
-Victor Cobra
Let me start off by explaining what I've been up to since September/October. If you want to get straight to the XRP analysis, skip the following 3 paragraphs:
When I started this Tradingview account, it was for my own personal growth and also to see how good I've become at technical analysis. I lost money in the beginning of 2018 (along with a lot of people), but I took the opportunity to observe a severe bear market and even do my best to figure out where the floor is, as well as where good entry points would be to establish a long term portfolio. I'm young, and I wanted to create a diverse portfolio that may be lucrative in the future. I don't care about how much money I have now. I also just find markets and general psychology fascinating. The visual aspect of TA attracts me because I'm an artist. I find it intuitive to estimate where potential pivot areas will be.
Back in November, I suggested that we would have a buying opportunity soon, as I was seeing some weakness in the market. I did not predict that we would sustain a drop below 6K, but I did speculate that no matter what happened, even if we dropped further, the earliest possible end to the bear market would be sometime in late January/early February, 2019. You can read back on that post (linked at the bottom). The idea was even titled "A Test of Patience." Since September, all of my purchases are in profit, believe it or not (a significant change from most of 2018). The reason why I'm in profit since September is because I bought XRP when it broke out against Bitcoin and Ethereum at MAJOR long term resistance levels. It has still generally remained above or slightly below 30 cents since then, even with Bitcoin breaking down.
In the last few months, I've been slowly establishing positions on coins that I see as having long term bullish potential, but only as I see them showing signs of bottoming out. For example, I entered ETH and LTC only recently at $107 and $32 respectively, I entered NEO in the $6-7 area with my TRX profits, and ONT at $0.60. I also bought NANO a couple of times at $0.80, but it's starting to show weakness, so I haven't added to that one in a while. These buys have potential to go negative, in terms of profit, and I'm prepared for that. But technical indicators and close observation of price flow led me to feel fairly confident about these entries. In addition to adding to certain positions, I've reduced or completely exited my positions in certain coins (GVT, ENG, WTC for example). This is because their potential remains extremely speculative, and their volume is worrying. WTC in particular I think needs an entire rebrand and restructuring if it's going to inspire any significant amount of confidence. I also swapped my entire TRX stack for NEO. TRX actually might very well outperform NEO, but I sense more general positivity from the NEO/ONT community, as well as a much better user experience.
Sorry for the tangent - just wanted to explain what my strategy has been over the last several months. Now onto the analysis.
As you can see, XRPBTC broke down from its uptrend, and has since been grinding down slowly in a rather large falling wedge. This is a bullish pattern, especially since XRP made a big reversal in the fall already, and simply needs to consolidate. I think that once we break out of the wedge, or if the 8800-8900 resistance is broken, we will finally see a rather enormous impulse in XRP. This can happen this week, or it can grind through the wedge for a bit longer.
Fundamentally, I think XRP is positioned to become a bit like the Netflix of crypto. Why do I say this? They've been amassing power in the banking sector quite rapidly. Just as Netflix started out as a video delivery service and making Blockbuster obsolete, XRP has made similarly strategic moves. Their goal is not to be a coin used by banks. Their goal is to TAKE OVER a significant portion of the banking system. They want to BECOME the bank. They want to be "The Standard." I know it's a meme at this point, but it describes their aspirations pretty accurately.
It's always good to look at the long game. This is Ripple's long game. Netflix's long game was to become the go to home theater and online streaming service. Will Ripple succeed? That remains to be seen. However, if you're invested in crypto for the potential life-changing money, I think it would be silly to overlook XRP. Many people hate on it because it's "centralized" and it goes against what many people see to be the original purpose of crypto. If you fundamentally disagree with their mission, then by all means don't buy their coins. It'll be on Coinbase soon, which will give it some more exposure. Remember, Coinbase rumors helped fuel the blow-off rise to $3.50 in December 2017.
As you can see on the long term log chart, we are consolidating similarly to how we were between 2015 and 2017. It took us 2 years to break out of that range, so it's possible we will stay in this USD range for a while yet. I think we can expect a rise to $0.50 at least soon before heading back down to test the lower part of the range. If we DO happen to break down, the next support can be found in the $0.12-0.13 area, as shown in pink. On this chart, I've drawn what a potential bullish scenario would look like. This would mean the next peak might be close to the $30 mark.
This is not financial advice, and I'm not a professional. This is for educational purposes only, and for my own personal reference. Please leave a like and I'm happy to have a discussion about this as well. Open to criticism.
-Victor Cobra
注释
Fairly strong rejection at previous support turned resistance (around 8800). If I were going to buy in, I'd look for an entry at the bottom of the wedge, at a lower support, or if we break 8800 with conviction. 注释
Looking like we might test 8800 again. Volume keeps increasing, so we may actually be able to break out here.注释
We failed to test, and have headed down towards our lower supports again. Looks like the wedge may extend out further.注释
Looking at the daily chart and volume, we seem to have broken out a bit and retested support, making a higher low. It's possible we try to break out of the wedge again, which would give us a target in the 8600 area soon. Whether or not it breaks remains to be seen. 注释
To me, it looks like it's about to try and reverse the trend. I'll update in a few days based on what plays out. It's pretty clear what the setup would be if one were to go long on a breakout.注释
Also note the difference between these two reversal attempts. The one from January 30th failed to bounce when it went back to support. Our current price action tells us that buyers are a bit more excited to get in. 注释
Looking a bit weaker now than I'd expected. Much of this is because Bitcoin has failed to make a higher high, unlike many other coins in this market. If we can't hold 8000, the wedge support is now around 7700. Below that, we have support around 6800 and at the long term uptrend. This isn't a buy signal until we break out of the wedge with confidence. Could take quite a while, but you never know. 注释
I think odds are increasing that we break out of the wedge to the upside. The ultimate oscillator is showing a lot of room to grow. The resistance is currently in the 8500-8600 area. The market is continuing to look bullish, despite yesterday's drop. 注释
Looks like the wedge is indeed extending further for now.注释
Made another attempt at breaking the wedge today! This one was more convincing. Maybe we can get some follow-through and finally see a sustained rally. 
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