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XRP/BTC Poloniex. Are we on an Elliot Wave ride?

POLONIEX:XRPBTC   瑞波币/比特币
Hi Everyone.

Global trend is going up. The price is trapped in 0.618 Fibo retracement (the 2014-12-09 support) and the currently downtrend.
All coins are moving up...

I know is to early to think on the end of being "kicked on the floor" after the "bloodbath", BUT, I don't know how to confirm the Elliot Wave with just wave1 and wave2. At this point, I need your help with your comments to keep learning.

Target 1 (Wave 3): 0.00044490

So, what you think?
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