While price action has so far followed my previous chart, I now believe we will see a deeper retracement. You will see we didn't take out the stops at the 0.86 level and instead have put in a triple bottom (H4 chart and lower). From here price has now rallied creating optimism for the bulls in order to build sell stops below the triple bottom. I see this current bounce having an upper limit of 1.97 which would run the buy stops at 1.86 and run into the body of the daily breaker & 2018 yearly open. But then again, it could leave those stops and turn back down at 1.80.
As per this new chart, I think we will see a bottom between 0.50 - 0.64; and I would expect it to happen either this weekend or early next week. You will also notice the old ATH at 0.399 as an extended target.
Here are some points which have led me to this conclusion;
- Stops at 0.64 left intact (triple bottom created)
- Daily breaker low (1.80) and open (1.97) to act as resistance
- 1.27 fib extension from 0.65 low to 1.80 lines up with a stop run at 0.64
- AB = CD measured move (chart snapshot below) lines up with the old daily high (0.495) which also closes the void on the daily chart
- RSI divergence between Jan 12 to Jan 18 on H4 and other timeframes (lower high in price & higher high on RSI)
- As a point of confluence, you will notice the two blue boxes. The first was created from the 2018 open to the January high. This box was then copied and used to measure an identical move down using the 2018 open as the median. As you can see it lines up with a stop run at the 0.64 level.
Daily chart showing void and breaker
H4 RSI divergence
As per this new chart, I think we will see a bottom between 0.50 - 0.64; and I would expect it to happen either this weekend or early next week. You will also notice the old ATH at 0.399 as an extended target.
Here are some points which have led me to this conclusion;
- Stops at 0.64 left intact (triple bottom created)
- Daily breaker low (1.80) and open (1.97) to act as resistance
- 1.27 fib extension from 0.65 low to 1.80 lines up with a stop run at 0.64
- AB = CD measured move (chart snapshot below) lines up with the old daily high (0.495) which also closes the void on the daily chart
- RSI divergence between Jan 12 to Jan 18 on H4 and other timeframes (lower high in price & higher high on RSI)
- As a point of confluence, you will notice the two blue boxes. The first was created from the 2018 open to the January high. This box was then copied and used to measure an identical move down using the 2018 open as the median. As you can see it lines up with a stop run at the 0.64 level.
Daily chart showing void and breaker
H4 RSI divergence
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It looks like the H3 breaker 50% level has been respected. This may be the top of the retracement.
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Still expecting more downward momentum. We will wait and see if the H2 breaker holds.
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The median of the H2 breaker is still holding strong
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Just running some further analysis has brought this possibility to my attention. See the charts below for another potential pathway to the lower levels
Here are some other charts for reference showing the completed moves
Here are some other charts for reference showing the completed moves
