Next week is the FOMC rate decision and the markets are pretty confident that there will be no change from the group according to Fed Funds futures (subtracting the contract value of the time frame we are looking for from 100 gives you the loose implied rate).
Interestingly though, the OECD said this morning it expects the Fed to peak at 5.25-5.50 percent which would entail another 25bp rate hike sometime soon. Also, there has been something of a 'hawkish' (or really 'less dovish') shift of late regarding the expectations for policy over the second half of next year. Currently the most anemic forecast for rate cuts in the second half of the year since early March.
Generally, this seems like it is setting up a backdrop that could surprise to either the upside or downside with the right/wrong prodding.
Interestingly though, the OECD said this morning it expects the Fed to peak at 5.25-5.50 percent which would entail another 25bp rate hike sometime soon. Also, there has been something of a 'hawkish' (or really 'less dovish') shift of late regarding the expectations for policy over the second half of next year. Currently the most anemic forecast for rate cuts in the second half of the year since early March.
Generally, this seems like it is setting up a backdrop that could surprise to either the upside or downside with the right/wrong prodding.
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