According to last weeks commitment of traders (COT) report which covers positions held amongst three groups of traders (Commercial hedgers more commonly known as the Smart Money hedgers, Non-commercials and Non-reportables) through Tuesday the 29th September showed the Smart Money is still aggressively shorting Soybeans along with agriculture commodities in general. Their total shorts against agriculture contracts hit another multi-year low, with extreme bearish readings on Soybeans, in particular, totalling -218,443 contracts at (3) (previous week -201,737 contracts).
Non-commercial (funds etc) positions totalled 239,872 contracts, an increase of 21,306 contracts from the week prior. And Non-reportables (small speculators) totalled -21,429 contracts (previous week -16,829).
It’s important to note that when commercial hedgers reach multi-year extremes, as they are now, they have a tendency to drive the markets. In contrast to that, non-commercials who typically always take the opposite side to the commercials usually get caught out at these likely turning points. From a technical perspective, the soybean weekly chart suggests we are toying with multi-year overhead resistance zone (R) and weekly prices are being capped by the 400 period moving average, which has proven to be a reliable source at turning points.
Smart money trade set-ups, such as this one are for the mid to long term.
Non-commercial (funds etc) positions totalled 239,872 contracts, an increase of 21,306 contracts from the week prior. And Non-reportables (small speculators) totalled -21,429 contracts (previous week -16,829).
It’s important to note that when commercial hedgers reach multi-year extremes, as they are now, they have a tendency to drive the markets. In contrast to that, non-commercials who typically always take the opposite side to the commercials usually get caught out at these likely turning points. From a technical perspective, the soybean weekly chart suggests we are toying with multi-year overhead resistance zone (R) and weekly prices are being capped by the 400 period moving average, which has proven to be a reliable source at turning points.
Smart money trade set-ups, such as this one are for the mid to long term.