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比特币4H级别上涨中枢初具雏形，后市如何发展？——接上篇《比特币4H级别第三段上涨如约而至，且看后市如何分解》
2025/8/14
维持上篇8/11的观点，比特币走完1H上涨中枢a后，在走a —— A转化。目前4H中枢A已经完成了一笔下——上，现在正在走一笔1H向下.
由于前两笔1H下——上波动较大，意味着市场分歧较大，因此这个A需要更长的时间消化，预计还需5-7天，等待日线MA10(即4H MA60 同等效果) 上来与价格粘合，再走1H离开段。
由于中枢高低点已经基本确认，接下来的几天时间仍然非常好操作，放好心态，大胆高空低多。
后续，等待次级别也就是1H离开段形成，预计会背离形成4H一卖。
需要注意，后续1H离开段，在客观上来讲即使终点在之前预计的124000-13000都属于趋势背离。而从4H级别三段上涨来看，终点在124000-134000范围都属于明显的趋势背离。但主观上来看12500-12900可能更合理。
原因从分形几何的观点来看：1) 这一笔4H向上起点的底分型不太强势，对比前两笔（4/7和6/23）力度非常差；2）a和A的形态在前两笔如此相似,但后续中枢内部可能会不相似。a通过 下——上——下三笔，没有收敛，快速利落上去；而A已经通过 下——上 两笔行情快速发散，连续遭遇两次空头袭击，后续第四笔预计无法离开，要通过收敛之后才能上去；3）这笔4H向上，中枢刚离开日线中枢上沿就形成来回拉扯，这意味着此日线中枢引力巨大，目前这一笔4H向上受到牵制，后续向上结束后4H一笔向下回踩仍然有非常大的概率拉回日线中枢。后续4H一笔向下回踩如果给稳住在日线中枢中轴以上，那行情还算健康，归于震荡。否则，会形成向下通道。当然个人更倾向于第一种情况。
当然，这些都是偏向于预测的逻辑，具体的左侧信号要等 MACD背离、次级别趋势背离，右侧信号等均线跌破拐头、次级别二卖等。
总之，目前行情走势非常健康，等待4H中枢A逐步完成，再等A——b转化。这个阶段非常好做单，不必恐惧，保持耐心即可，反正也还没到该恐惧的时候。
标普500趋势与交易策略周线复合：整体熊市横盘至下跌持续3-4周。（熊）
日线复合：日高点临近。
关键因素：下周是4月低点以来的第18周，标普的特性周趋势反转通常在15-18周，如果行情再次产生新高点也应该非常短暂。
交易策略建议：如果每日收盘价低于 6325.25价格将继续走低。
⚠ 短期交易者应以 TradingBox,信号系统为准
金汇得手：黄金开盘拉升 接近3363继续做多 美元指数昨天收长下影阴线，今日关注97.8-97.2区间，强支撑96.9附近。
黄金昨天震荡上涨，不过晚间触及3370附近出现回落，日线收十字星。早盘3356一线企稳拉升10美金多，目前不是太好操作，不过我们还是建议低多为主。目前支撑就是日内地点附近，触及可以做多。小周期支撑在3362附近，接近这个位置可以先多。目标先看3371附近，破位依旧看3378，行情一旦站稳3378，大概率还会去3400上方。
操作建议：接近3362或日内低点多，3380或90上方再短空。昨天3343多，3350多，3354多，3374空单没到。
原油昨天比较符合预期，62.6受阻回落，最低到61.3附近企稳，日线收阴线十字星。结合大周期，今天倾向震荡偏多，因为周线不支持大涨。建议接近61.7或昨天低点多，上方接近昨天高点不破小止损空，或63.2附近再空。分析仅供参考，实盘为准。
如何利用前一日的高低点来判断市场偏见（daily bias）和流动性抽离（draw on liquidity）？如何利用前一日的高低点来判断市场偏见（daily bias）和流动性抽离（draw on liquidity）：
使用前一日高低点、周高低点、摆动点（swing points）、失败位移（failure to displace）以及次日模型（next day model）等概念。
前一日的高点和低点是判断市场偏见和流动性抽离的重要参考：
如果价格没有突破前一日的高点或低点，则可能趋向于触及这些水平。
前一日高点和低点也可以作为流动性池，用于框定反转。
如何根据前一日高低点来预测价格走势？
例如在上升趋势中预期价格会触及前一日高点，在下降趋势中预期价格会触及前一日低点。
每周的高点和低点可以用来框定更长时间周期的市场偏见和反转点：
当价格触及或未能突破周高低点时，可以预期价格会出现反转。
在周线图上标记出周高低点，并观察价格在这些点位附近的反应。
旧的高点和低点可以作为潜在的反转点。
当价格未能突破摆动点时，可以形成市场偏见。
如果价格未能跌破一个摆动低点，偏见可能是上涨；反之，如果价格未能突破一个摆动高点，偏见可能是下跌。
利用前一天的价格行为来预测次日的价格走势。
当价格未能突破前一天的低点时，预期次日价格上涨。
当价格触及并回撤到前一天的高点时，预期次日价格下跌。
如何在不同时间框架上应用次日模型，例如在日线图和小时图上。
使用前一日高低点和摆动点来确定入场时机和目标。
如何在伦敦时段识别价格模式并执行交易？
结合公平价值缺口（fair value gap）和次日模型来制定交易计划。
如何在纽约时段利用相应工具进行交易，并设置止损和盈利目标？
核心观点是通过分析前一日的高低点、周高低点、摆动点以及价格对这些关键点的位移情况，交易员可以有效地判断市场的短期偏见和流动性抽离点。这些技术可以帮助交易员在不同的时间框架上制定交易策略，并提高交易的成功率。个人多个实例进一步说明这些概念的实际应用，展示了如何将理论转化为具体的交易决策。
價格一開盤就跳走？交易老手的跳空防禦術公開！
跳空開盤是交易中少數真正能讓人措手不及的情況。你可能前一晚才設好計劃、設定好停損，隔天醒來，價格卻直接跳過你的防線。此時，原本精心規劃的交易邏輯形同虛設，接下來的一切取決於你是否有備而來。
為何市場會跳空？
市場之所以會跳空，原因其實很簡單：有新資訊在非交易時間出現，市場便立即調整價格來反映這些消息。
這些資訊可能涵蓋整體宏觀層面，例如利率決議、地緣政治事件或亞洲、歐洲地區公布的經濟數據；也可能與特定公司或產業有關，例如財報或重大新聞。
跳空現象在股票市場最為常見，因為股票多半在有限時段交易，而重大訊息常在盤後釋出，結合低流動性，就容易出現劇烈跳動。至於期貨與ETF這類24小時交易或近全天候追蹤的產品，所謂「跳空」更多時候只是自然的價格延續，而非劇變。
範例：META 跳空上漲
META（Facebook母公司）在財報後出現大幅跳空，價格突破多層技術阻力，伴隨成交量激增。若站在多方這一邊，這是意料之外的收穫；但若持空，則很可能措手不及。因此，事先思考跳空的可能性，是交易準備的重要一環。
統計怎麼說？
大量研究顯示，大多數跳空最終會被「回補」。也就是說，跳空上漲後容易回跌，跳空下跌後有機會反彈。但這並非絕對。
若跳空幅度大，且伴隨明確催化因素（如政策宣示、強勁財報等），往往可能展開單邊強趨勢。這類「趨勢日」常常在開盤前15分鐘就定下當日高點或低點，接著一口氣走到底。
範例：Apple 跳空
Apple 的5分鐘圖表顯示，開盤跳空常有回補傾向。但若背後有實質利多催化，也有可能拉出強趨勢，這是交易者不可輕忽的可能性。
如果跳空對你不利，怎麼辦？
當市場跳空直接越過你的停損點，原本的風控計劃形同作廢，這時候的核心目標只有一個：控制損失。
很多交易者在這種情況下容易陷入「凍結模式」，不知如何應對。正確的做法應該是：
立即減倉：先賣出部分部位，止血優先；
重新設立停損點：可以參考當日的開盤高/低點，或者根據ATR（平均真實區間）動態設置；
避免情緒操作：這不是搶救交易的時機，而是避免虧損進一步擴大的防禦動作。
如果你原本準備進場但被跳空打亂呢？
有時候你本來在等一個突破機會，市場卻直接跳過你設定的進場點，讓你措手不及。
這時候要回到交易架構本身是否仍然有效這個問題：
若結構仍在、跳空具說服力，你可以調整倉位，用較小部位換取更寬的停損空間，維持相同風險；
但若跳空看起來像是過熱或假突破，那就該等待更強的確認訊號再行介入，而不是「硬上」。
提前有準備，是處理跳空的關鍵
跳空無法預測，但可以準備。
如果價格跳空對你不利，就減倉、重新設置風控區間；
如果價格跳空對你有利，也別輕忽其風險，適度調整部位和進場策略。
交易的核心不是要做到完美，而是在混亂中保持主動權與紀律。跳空是市場的一部分，你不用預測它，但你必須知道如何應對它。
免责声明：本资料仅供信息和学习用途。提供的信息不构成投资建议，也未考虑任何投资者的个人财务状况或目标。任何涉及过去表现的信息均不可靠地指示未来结果或表现。社交媒体渠道对于英国居民不适用。差价合约和差价交易是复杂的金融工具，因杠杆效应而伴随着快速亏损的高风险。 82.67%的零售投资者在与本提供者交易差价合约和差价交易时亏损。 您应考虑您是否了解差价合约和差价交易的运作方式，并且是否能够承担高风险以避免资金损失。
ETH-----Sell around 4565, target 4630 areaAugust 13th ETH Contract Technical Analysis:
Today, the daily chart closed with a small bullish candlestick pattern, with prices rising continuously. The price is above the moving average, and the accompanying indicator is forming a golden cross. The overall upward trend is very clear, and the price has experienced a slight retracement before continuing to rise and breaking through the high to a new all-time high. Therefore, we should continue to buy on pullbacks, but we should still be aware of the risk of pullbacks caused by news and data. The short-term hourly chart shows a low near 4565 and a high near 4685. The current candlestick pattern is continuous, but the accompanying indicator is overbought, so it is not advisable to buy directly. The future market trend is complex, so waiting for a pullback to buy is a safer option.
Today's ETH Short-Term Contract Trading Strategy:
Buy on pullbacks to 4565, with a stop loss at 4535 and a target of 4630.
8.13比特币行情本文撰写时间15:56
以太坊再创高点，逼近历史新高，截至目前最高点位4682，比特币短期震荡，维持在12万附近震荡，昨日高点120270附近，目前大饼震荡走势，以太不断拉升；
昨日我们比特币布局点位是11900附近，目前小亏损状态，比特币日线上上方12万附近压力依旧有效，日线收的上影线并未被突破，就算昨日消息面是利多，比特币也没有给到我们止损位，空单继续持有，因为以太坊的上涨导致大饼没有能走出更深的下跌，昨日下跌低点是118050位置，大饼继续看目标116000-114200区间，自行把握进场机会；
日线图上看，以太坊这波从1384位置涨到4682是基本上没有给到大的回调机会，前面4100压力被破，以太坊也就将去试探历史高点，昨日我们做短线空布局，是大饼有做空信号，本以为以太会给个回调进场的机会，但无奈多头太强，强势拉升再度刷新短线高点，昨日以太做了空布局的朋友，小损一波，目前以太坊不适合做空，这次以太坊表现还是不错，前面大饼在上12万的时候以太坊走势很弱，现在也能视为补涨，历史高点4877位置这次我认为是守不住的，昨晚CPI数据公布，低于预期，通胀数据符合预期，9月降息的机会很大，这一消息面也促使以太坊走出反弹，以太开始拉高，后市将是山寨的天下，这段时间大家可以关注下山寨的动向，找机会做一些布局，以太坊交易方面，做多不做空，目前高位不要追，等待回调后做布局，回调点位大概4300附近，以太坊这波反弹预计会到达5350-5400附近，自行把握进场机会；
短线交易，控制风险，盈亏自理；
Crude oil - Sell around 64.30, target 62.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil is clearly weak. I believe we can sell immediately. There's no need to wait for a major rebound or significant resistance levels. We can sell directly from a small intraday level. Crude oil will continue to fall. The 4-hour chart shows it has already broken through, so there's still room for further decline. Today, we're focusing on selling at 64.30.
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday's CPI data was mixed, generally suppressing the US dollar and supporting gold. However, gold's reaction was minimal, and it remains in a period of volatile correction.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 64.30, target 62.00-60.00
Gold - Sell near 3358, target 3340-3320Gold Market Analysis:
Yesterday's daily doji formed a doji, signaling a short-term market swing. The broader selling trend in gold remains evident. This is the first correction after the sharp daily drop, and it's a normal technical correction. Trading can be done by scalping back and forth by a dozen or so pips. If you want to follow the trend, sell at a high price. Yesterday, we planned to sell at 3358, 3355, and 3348. Today, I'm sticking with the strategy of selling. We're focusing on a single point; if it doesn't break, we can continue selling. Yesterday, we analyzed 3380, a bottleneck in the market. If it breaks, it will essentially form a large V-shaped pattern, leaving us with time to adjust our strategy. Yesterday's low was 3330, so it's almost certain that selling will continue today. However, the volatile market is also likely to continue. Try to sell only after the market rebounds.
During the Asian session, keep an eye on the first resistance level at 3358. Continue selling near this level. If it unexpectedly breaks above, 3367 is also a selling opportunity. The longer gold hovers within this range, the greater the potential for further declines. The probability of a direct reversal on the daily chart is low. The next level of support is around 3300, where we anticipate a major daily rebound.
Support levels are 3330 and 3300, while resistance levels are 3358 and 3367. The dividing line between strength and weakness is 3350.
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday's CPI data was mixed, generally supporting gold while suppressing the US dollar. However, the price action was minimal, and gold is expected to maintain a period of volatile correction.
Trading Recommendations:
Gold - Sell near 3358, target 3340-3320
Gold prices are waiting for a major breakthrough!Market News:
Spot gold prices fluctuated in early Asian trading on Wednesday (August 13), currently trading around $3,345/oz. Mild US inflation data for July has further intensified market bets on a September Federal Reserve rate cut, and a weakening US dollar has boosted the appeal of international gold. Combined with the positive news of an extended US-China tariff truce, the gold market is at a critical turning point!
For London gold prices, expectations of a rate cut are a strong catalyst, as lower interest rates weaken the dollar's appeal and reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. While gold could face short-term pressure if inflation unexpectedly spikes, the current data reinforces its position as a safe-haven asset, attracting buyers from other currencies, particularly as a weaker US dollar further reduces the cost of gold.
While the market will focus in the short term on this week's PPI, unemployment benefits, and retail sales data, in the long term, the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy and geopolitical uncertainty will continue to support gold's upside potential.
Technical Analysis:
The US dollar index surged, then retreated back to 98.0. Gold dipped to 3330.9 in late trading before bottoming out and rebounding, closing with a small bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. The daily chart is currently trading at the middle Bollinger Band level, with the RSI indicator adjusting towards its neutral 50-value midpoint. The hourly Bollinger Bands are converging, the moving averages are converging, and the RSI is moving towards its midpoint. The four-hour chart saw heavy volume dip to the 30-level, testing the lower Bollinger Band before re-entering 3350. The 10-day and 7-day moving averages are converging. Gold trading strategies continue to favor short-term trading in a wide range.
Based on the current gold market trend analysis, the prevailing pattern remains a broad, sweeping range between 3450 and 3250, a stalemate that has persisted for two to three months. This pattern of holding highs, breaking lows, and maintaining a sustained decline indicates that the previous bullish, volatile market has been disrupted. The new structure could face two potential scenarios: one is a transitional period of neither strong nor weak sweeping activity, building momentum through broad consolidation for subsequent direction; the other is a turning point above 3400, with the market gradually extending downward, leading to a volatile selling strategy.
Given the non-unilateral nature of the structure, after such a significant decline, caution is warranted regarding the need for corrections in the Asian session. The intraday strength will depend on the strength and duration of the correction. If the rebound is weak and the market is effectively suppressed, the market may continue to fluctuate in a bearish, volatile market. Conversely, if key support is maintained and the market stabilizes, a return to a sweeping transition could occur.
Trading strategy:
Short-term gold: Buy at 3322-3325, stop loss at 3314, target at 3350-3370;
Short-term gold: Sell at 3357-3360, stop loss at 3369, target at 3330-3310;
Key points:
First support level: 3332, second support level: 3318, third support level: 3303
First resistance level: 3355, second resistance level: 3368, third resistance level: 3380
