《灵龟入海纳离火:海南风水格局的时空能量解析与运势展望》
离火运下的“灵龟腾飞”
一、海南地理风水核心格局:千年“灵龟入海”的能量基底
海南的风水禀赋源于“玄武金龟”的天然地形与“五指山龙脉”的水系格局,这种格局符合《葬经》“势如万马自天而下,形如莲花接地而生”的吉相,为长期发展奠定了“藏风聚气”的能量基础:
地形格局:海南岛整体似“玄武金龟”,万宁、三亚、儋州、东方分别为龟的“四爪”,主干龙(南干龙分支)贯穿全岛,形成“脊梁”支撑,这种格局象征“稳定发展”与“活力四射”。
水系格局:万泉河、南渡江环绕五指山,形成“玉带环腰”的水局,契合“水主财”的风水逻辑;正西、西北方向的海域(虽受越南“大反弓”影响,但仍有气场聚留)为“得令旺财水”,支撑财运积累。
龙脉能量:五指山作为“祖龙”,分出四大支龙(儋州、东方、三亚、万宁),这些支龙走向的城市成为海南“人丁兴旺”的核心区域,其中三亚因“山龙脉优势+八运旺财水”成为过往发展的最大受益者。
二、2026年及以后的“天时”:九紫离火运的爆发期
2024-2043年为下元九紫离火运(先天运2017-2043年,后天运2024-2043年),这是海南的“真正天时”,其核心逻辑是“离火与海南的属性共振”:
离火的属性:离卦象征“光明、科技、文明、南方”,与海南的“热带气候(阳光充足)”“自贸港(开放文明)”“南方地理位置”高度契合。
九运的爆发点:九紫运的“先天运”(2017-2043年)于2020年进入“交接中期”,此时海南自贸港(2020年设立)的政策与“天时”共振,水明堂(西北、西方海域)开始发挥巨大作用,海南将迎来“风生水起”的发展期。
需弥补的缺陷:西北方的琼州海峡是“水明堂缺口”,古代无法修补,但现代可通过跨海工程(如琼州海峡跨海大桥)缓存水气场,链接内陆地势,弥补山峦与水势的不均衡,推动海南“更上一层楼”。
三、2026年及以后的“地利”:区域发展的“能量聚焦”
结合九紫离火运的“火属性”与海南的“地理格局”,2026年及以后的核心发展区域将围绕“龙脉+旺财水”展开:
海口市:作为省会,位于“来龙入口”,是海南的“人丁兴旺”核心城市。若琼州海峡跨海大桥建成,海口将成为“链接内陆的环抱型城市”,财运与人气将大幅提升,成为“第一个真正崛起的城市”。
儋州市:位于“神龟左前爪”,支龙走向此处,未来将形成“新地标矩阵”(如恒大海花岛),依托“龙脉+水局”,成为海南的“经济增长极”之一。
三亚市:虽得八运(2004-2023年)旺财水,但九运(2024-2043年)将依托“山龙脉优势”,继续成为“旅游与高端产业”的核心区域(如凤凰岛、亚特兰蒂斯),但需注意“凶煞龙脉”的化解(如南山寺的观音像已镇住南山岭的“凶煞”)。
四、2026年及以后的“人和”:产业与社会的“离火转型”
九紫离火运的“火属性”将推动海南产业与社会结构的转型,核心趋势包括:
产业趋势:
新能源:离火象征“能量”,海南的“太阳能、风能”资源丰富(全年日照超2000小时),将成为“新能源基地”,支撑“绿色经济”发展。
文旅与文创:离卦主“丽”(美丽、文明),海南的“热带风光、黎苗文化”将成为“文旅核心”,如三亚的“亚特兰蒂斯”、海口的“骑楼老街”,将依托“文化+科技”模式,成为“国际文旅度假胜地”。
数字经济:离火象征“信息”,海南的“江东新区”(自贸港核心园区)将成为“数字经济”的“能量枢纽”,吸引字节跳动、阿里巴巴等企业,推动“产业升级”。
社会趋势:
女性力量崛起:离卦对应“中女”(30-55岁成熟女性),海南的“文旅、文创”产业将成为女性的“主场”,如“黎苗文化”的传承、“女性创业”的支持,推动“性别平等”。
边界意识强化:离火的“光明”特质推动“社会边界”清晰,海南的“社群联结”将更注重“质量”而非“数量”,如“兴趣社群”的专业化、“情感经济”的崛起。
五、2026年及以后的“风险”:需规避的“风水隐患”
尽管海南的“天时地利人和”占优,但仍需规避风水隐患:
琼州海峡的“缺口”:若不修建跨海工程,“水明堂缺口”可能导致“财运流失”,需加快工程进度,链接内陆地势。
三亚的“凶煞龙脉”:南山岭的“龙身小、龙头大”形态仍需“化解”(如南山寺的观音像),避免“凶煞”影响“财运与安全”。
产业的“虚火”:离火的“虚火”可能导致“科技泡沫”(如AI、元宇宙的过度投资),需“坚守伦理底线”,避免“盲目跟风”。
六、结论:海南的“离火未来”
海南的风水局在2026年及以后将进入“天时地利人和”的共振期:
地理格局:“灵龟入海”的能量基底支撑“稳定发展”;
天时:九紫离火运的“火属性”与海南的“热带、开放”属性共振,推动“产业升级”;
地利:海口、儋州、三亚等城市依托“龙脉+旺财水”,成为“经济增长极”;
人和:“新能源、文旅、数字经济”等产业推动“社会转型”,“女性力量”与“边界意识”成为“社会特色”。
尽管需规避“琼州海峡缺口”“凶煞龙脉”“产业虚火”等风险,但海南的“离火未来”仍值得期待,将成为“中国南翼的火眼”(吸纳南海生气)与“离火文明的实验田”(科技伦理、生态文明)。
包含IO脚本
The Feng Shui of the United States《水龙破天心:美国国土风水格局的玄空推演与霸权拐点预警》美国国土风水格局与国运推理:基于玄空飞星模型的分析
一、核心结论
美国国土的玄空风水格局呈现“龙脉强旺但隐患暗藏、水局得势但气散、当前国运处于巅峰但即将转衰”的特征。其核心逻辑基于玄空飞星“立向-龙脉-水局-运期”的四维模型,结合美国地理特征与历史发展,可推导出其未来20年(2024-2043年,下元九运)的国运趋势:经济与科技仍将领先,但军事冲突、内部撕裂与地缘风险将加剧,需警惕“盛极而衰”的拐点。
二、美国国土风水格局的具体分析
1. 立向:水龙局“坐空朝满”,契合平地临水的能量逻辑
玄空风水立向的核心原则是“乘龙、止龙、截龙、虚、气”,其中“虚龙原则”(以明堂为向)与“气龙原则”(以气口为向)适用于美国这类“平地临水”的地理格局。
美国地理特征:华盛顿特区位于波托马克河岸的平地,无高大山脉可“乘龙”(以山为坐),但有密西西比河、波托马克河等大水“止龙”(以水为向)。
立向结论:美国国土的立向为“子山午向”(正北正南),符合“水龙局”(以水为向)的能量逻辑——水主财,故美国经济以“流动型财富”(贸易、金融、科技)为核心。
2. 龙脉:东大龙余脉“强旺但元气受损”,支撑国家核心能量
全球龙脉均发源于昆仑山(万龙之祖),其中“东大龙”(青藏高原→中国北方→蒙古→俄罗斯→跨白令海峡→美洲落基山脉)是美国的核心龙脉。
龙脉走向:东大龙余脉延伸至美国境内,形成落基山脉(美国西部主脉),成为美国的“玄武靠山”(支撑国家稳定的能量核心)。
龙脉隐患:白令海峡的阻隔导致东大龙“元气大伤”(龙气无法像支撑中国昆仑山那样持续输入美国),故美国虽能短期强旺,但长期缺乏“根龙”(昆仑山)的稳定能量支撑。
3. 水局:密西西比河“水破天心”但得“无形水口”庇护,形成“风险与机遇并存”的财富格局
水局是玄空风水“聚财”的关键,美国的核心水局为密西西比河(贯穿全境,流入墨西哥湾)。
“水破天心”的格局:密西西比河从黄石河到新奥尔良的干流基本是直的,两边无千米以上的“捍门水口”(镇锁水流的山脉),符合“水破天心”的凶局特征(破坏稳定、风险极大)。
“无形水口”的庇护:墨西哥湾及加勒比海的“热流”(量子风水学认为)像一堵水墙,阻塞了墨西哥湾的出水,间接阻止了密西西比河的直泄;此外,银河系时间场(1864-2044年)处于“巽向乾”方向,与密西西比河出水方向相反,形成“无形水口大北辰”(比任何水口山峰更有效的能量屏障)。
水局结论:密西西比河的“水破天心”格局虽为凶,但得“无形水口”庇护,故美国能形成“风险与机遇并存”的财富格局——经济强大但易受外部冲击(如2008年金融危机、2020年新冠疫情)。
4. 运期:当前处于下元九运(2024-2043年),科技与文化将主导,但需警惕“盛极而衰”
三元九运是玄空风水“时间维度”的核心模型,每20年为一运,当前(2024-2043年)为下元九运(九紫离火运)。
九运与美国国运:九紫离火运主“科技、文化、新能源”,美国的科技(硅谷、人工智能)、文化(好莱坞、TikTok)与新能源(特斯拉、页岩气)均处于全球领先地位,故九运期间美国仍将保持“超级大国”地位。
运期隐患:九运的“火性”(燥、动)与美国“白虎擎拳”(西部山脉强于东部)的风水格局叠加,易引发“军事冲突”(如俄乌战争、中美贸易战)与“内部撕裂”(如种族矛盾、党派对立)。
三、美国国运的未来趋势推理(2024-2043年)
基于玄空风水模型,美国未来20年的国运将呈现以下趋势:
1. 经济与科技:仍将领先,但需警惕“水破天心”的风险
优势:九紫离火运主“科技”,美国的硅谷、人工智能、新能源(特斯拉、页岩气)仍将引领全球,经济将保持“流动型财富”(贸易、金融、科技)的增长。
风险:密西西比河的“水破天心”格局虽得“无形水口”庇护,但需警惕“水口变薄”(如墨西哥湾海平面上升、热流减弱)的风险,可能导致经济衰退(如2008年金融危机)。
2. 军事与外交:“白虎擎拳”格局主导,冲突与对抗将加剧
风水逻辑:美国西部山脉(落基山脉)强于东部(阿巴拉契亚山脉),形成“白虎擎拳”(主凶恶好战)的风水格局。
趋势推理:九运期间,美国的军事冲突(如俄乌战争、中美贸易战)与外交对抗(如制裁伊朗、朝鲜)将加剧,需警惕“军事消耗”(如阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争)导致国力衰落。
3. 内部社会:“水散财流”格局叠加,撕裂与矛盾将升级
风水逻辑:密西西比河的“水破天心”格局导致“水散财流”(财富无法集中),美国的种族矛盾(黑人与白人)、党派对立(民主党与共和党)、地域分裂(东西海岸与中部)将升级。
趋势推理:九运期间,美国的内部撕裂(如国会山骚乱、种族冲突)将加剧,需警惕“社会动荡”(如大规模抗议、暴力事件)影响国家稳定。
4. 地缘政治:“盛极而衰”的拐点将至,需警惕“他国崛起”的挑战
风水逻辑:银河系时间场(1864-2044年)结束后,“无形水口”(热流)将减弱,密西西比河的“水破天心”格局将暴露,美国的国力将衰落。
趋势推理:九运后期(2034-2043年),美国的国力将逐渐衰落,需警惕“他国崛起”(如中国、印度)的挑战,地缘政治格局将从“美国独霸”转向“多极化”。
四、结论与启示
美国国土的玄空风水格局呈现“强旺但隐患暗藏”的特征,其国运将受“九运科技主导”与“风水隐患”的双重影响。未来20年,美国仍将保持“超级大国”地位,但需警惕“军事冲突”“内部撕裂”“地缘风险”与“盛极而衰”的拐点。
对中国而言,需借鉴美国“科技与文化”的优势,同时规避其“军事好战”“内部撕裂”的隐患,坚持“和平发展”“科技创新”“文化自信”的道路,才能在九运期间实现“民族复兴”的目标。
注:以上分析基于玄空风水模型与历史数据,仅供参考,不构成对美国国运的绝对预测。实际国运受多种因素(政治、经济、科技、文化)影响,需综合判断。
The Feng Shui Pattern of the United States and its National Fortune: An Analysis Based on the Xuan Kong Flying Star Model
I. Core Conclusions
The Xuan Kong Feng Shui pattern of the United States exhibits characteristics of "a strong dragon vein but hidden dangers, a powerful water formation but dissipated energy, and a current peak in national fortune but impending decline." Its core logic is based on the four-dimensional model of Xuan Kong Flying Star—"orientation-dragon vein-water formation-fortune period"—combined with the geographical features and historical development of the United States, leading to the following predictions for its national fortune over the next 20 years (2024-2043, the Lower Yuan Period 9): While its economy and technology will remain leading, military conflicts, internal divisions, and geopolitical risks will intensify, requiring vigilance against the turning point of "prosperity followed by decline."
II. Detailed Analysis of the Feng Shui Pattern of the United States
1. Orientation: The Water Dragon Formation, "Sitting Empty, Facing Full," Aligns with the Energy Logic of Flat Land Facing Water
The core principles of orientation in Xuan Kong Feng Shui are "Riding the Dragon, Stopping the Dragon, Intercepting the Dragon, Emptiness, and Qi." Among these, the "Empty Dragon Principle" (facing from the Bright Hall) and the "Qi Dragon Principle" (facing from the Qi vent) are applicable to the "flat land facing water" geographical pattern of the United States.
Geographical Characteristics of the United States: Washington, D.C., is located on flat land along the Potomac River. There are no high mountains to "ride the dragon" (sitting from the mountain), but there are large rivers such as the Mississippi River and the Potomac River to "stop the dragon" (facing from the water).
Conclusion of Orientation: The orientation of the United States is "Zi Mountain Wu Facing" (due north and due south), which conforms to the energy logic of the "Water Dragon Formation" (facing from the water)—water governs wealth, therefore the US economy is centered on "flowing wealth" (trade, finance, and technology).
2. Dragon Vein: The Eastern Great Dragon's Residual Vein – "Strong but Damaged in Vital Energy," Supporting the Nation's Core Energy
All global dragon veins originate from the Kunlun Mountains (the ancestor of all dragons), with the "Eastern Great Dragon" (Qinghai-Tibet Plateau → Northern China → Mongolia → Russia → across the Bering Strait → Rocky Mountains of the Americas) being the core dragon vein of the United States.
Dragon Vein Route: The residual vein of the Eastern Great Dragon extends into the United States, forming the Rocky Mountains (the main vein of the western United States), becoming the "Black Tortoise Backing Mountain" (the energy core supporting national stability) of the United States.
Dragon Vein Hidden Dangers: The Bering Strait's obstruction has severely damaged the Eastern Great Dragon's vital energy (its dragon energy cannot continuously flow into the United States like it does into the Kunlun Mountains of China). Therefore, although the United States may experience short-term prosperity, it lacks the stable energy support of its "root dragon" (the Kunlun Mountains) in the long term.
3. Water Formation: The Mississippi River, though seemingly "breaking the heart of the sky," is protected by an "invisible water mouth," creating a wealth pattern where "risk and opportunity coexist."
The water formation is key to "accumulating wealth" in Xuan Kong Feng Shui. The core water formation in the United States is the Mississippi River (which flows through the entire country and into the Gulf of Mexico).
The "breaking the heart of the sky" formation: The Mississippi River's main stream from Yellowstone to New Orleans is essentially straight, lacking "guardian gates" (mountains blocking the water flow) exceeding a kilometer in length on either side. This conforms to the inauspicious characteristics of "breaking the heart of the sky" (destabilizing and extremely risky).
The Protection of the "Invisible Waterway": The "hot currents" of the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea (according to quantum feng shui) act like a water wall, blocking the outflow of water from the Gulf of Mexico and indirectly preventing the Mississippi River from flowing directly out. Furthermore, the Milky Way's time field (1864-2044) is in the "Southeast to Northwest" direction, opposite to the outflow direction of the Mississippi River, forming the "Invisible Waterway Great North Star" (an energy barrier more effective than any waterway peak).
Water Pattern Conclusion: Although the Mississippi River's "Water Breaking the Heavenly Heart" pattern is inauspicious, it is protected by the "Invisible Waterway," thus enabling the United States to form a wealth pattern of "risk and opportunity coexisting"—a strong economy but vulnerable to external shocks (such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic).
4. Period of Fortune: Currently in the Lower Yuan Period Nine (2024-2043), technology and culture will dominate, but caution is advised regarding the "rise and fall" phenomenon.
The Three Yuan Nine Periods is the core model of Xuan Kong Feng Shui's "time dimension," with each period lasting 20 years. The current period (2024-2043) is the Lower Yuan Period Nine (Nine Purple Fire Period).
Period Nine and the National Fortune of the United States: The Nine Purple Fire Period governs "technology, culture, and new energy." The United States is a global leader in technology (Silicon Valley, artificial intelligence), culture (Hollywood, TikTok), and new energy (Tesla, shale gas). Therefore, the United States will maintain its "superpower" status during this period.
Hazards During the Period: The "fire" nature (dryness, movement) of Period Nine overlaps with the US's "White Tiger Holding a Fist" Feng Shui pattern (western mountains stronger than the east), potentially triggering "military conflicts" (such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the US-China trade war) and "internal divisions" (such as racial conflicts, partisan conflict).
III. Future Trends in the United States' National Fortune (2024-2043)
Based on the Xuan Kong Feng Shui model, the United States' national fortune over the next 20 years will exhibit the following trends:
1. Economy and Technology: Maintaining its leading position, but the risk of "Water Breaking the Heart of Heaven" needs to be guarded against.
Advantages: The Nine Purple Fire Luck governs "technology." Silicon Valley, artificial intelligence, and new energy (Tesla, shale gas) will continue to lead the world, and the economy will maintain growth driven by "fluid wealth" (trade, finance, technology).
Risks: Although the "Water Breaking the Heart of Heaven" pattern of the Mississippi River is protected by an "invisible water mouth," the risk of "thinning water mouth" (such as rising sea levels in the Gulf of Mexico and weakening heat flow) needs to be guarded against, which may lead to economic recession (such as the 2008 financial crisis).
2. Military and Diplomacy: The "White Tiger Raising its Fist" pattern dominates, and conflicts and confrontations will intensify.
Feng Shui Logic: The western mountain ranges (Rocky Mountains) of the United States are stronger than those in the east (Appalachian Mountains), forming a "White Tiger Raising its Fist" (indicating fierceness and warlikeness) Feng Shui pattern.
Trend Inference: During the Ninth Period, military conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine War and the US-China trade war) and diplomatic confrontations (such as sanctions against Iran and North Korea) in the United States will intensify. We must be wary of "military attrition" (such as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq) leading to a decline in national power.
3. Internal Society: The overlapping of the "water dispersing wealth" pattern will escalate divisions and contradictions.
Feng Shui Logic: The "water breaking the heart of heaven" pattern of the Mississippi River leads to "water dispersing wealth" (wealth cannot be concentrated), which will escalate racial contradictions (between Black and White people), partisan antagonism (Democrats and Republicans), and regional divisions (East Coast, West Coast, and Midwest) in the United States.
Trend Inference: During the Ninth Period, internal divisions in the United States (such as the Capitol Hill riots and racial conflicts) will intensify. We must be wary of "social unrest" (such as large-scale protests and violent incidents) affecting national stability.
4. Geopolitics: The Turning Point of "Rise and Fall" is Approaching; We Must Be Wary of the Challenges from the Rise of Other Nations
Feng Shui Logic: After the end of the Milky Way's time field (1864-2044), the "invisible watercourse" (heat flow) will weaken, and the "water breaking the heart of heaven" pattern of the Mississippi River will be exposed, leading to the decline of American national power.
Trend Reasoning: In the later stages of the Ninth Cycle (2034-2043), American national power will gradually decline, requiring vigilance against the challenges from the rise of other nations (such as China and India). The geopolitical landscape will shift from "American hegemony" to "multipolarity."
IV. Conclusion and Implications
The Xuan Kong Feng Shui pattern of the United States presents the characteristics of "strong prosperity but hidden dangers." Its national fortune will be influenced by both "technology dominance during the Ninth Cycle" and "feng shui hidden dangers." In the next 20 years, the United States will maintain its "superpower" status, but it must be wary of "military conflict," "internal division," "geopolitical risks," and the turning point of "rise and fall."
For China, it is necessary to learn from the United States' advantages in "technology and culture" while avoiding the hidden dangers of its "military belligerence" and "internal divisions," and to adhere to the path of "peaceful development," "technological innovation," and "cultural confidence" in order to achieve the goal of "national rejuvenation" during the Ninth Period.
Note: The above analysis is based on the Xuan Kong Feng Shui model and historical data, and is for reference only. It does not constitute an absolute prediction of the United States' national destiny. Actual national destiny is influenced by multiple factors (political, economic, technological, and cultural), requiring comprehensive judgment.
S&P 500趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:Es已于上周形成多头反转,11 月20 日 很可能是⼀个W.C 浪周线低点,ES 最终应继续上⾏并创出新⾼。
日线复合:日线未进⼊超买(OB),这意味着短期多头趋势可能还能再延续约2–3 天,之后才会形成日线⾼点。
关键因素:周四出现的快速反弹反转日低点,恰好位于 50% 价格回撤 与 38% 时间回撤 附近,这使得 ES 具备完成⼀轮小级别修正的条件,并且最终应当被随后出现的再创新⾼所接续。
交易策略建议:ES 与 NQ 当前均处在适合做多交易的位置,⽌损位不应低于 12 月 17 日收盘价下⽅。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!
一天一家A股公司高管:百济神州生物科技有限公司董事长 欧雷强当资本成为诗行:一位企业掌舵者的价值投资叙事
一、基本信息
欧雷强(John V. Oyler),1969年出生,美国国籍,硕士研究生学历。他是全球创新药企百济神州(北京)生物科技有限公司的联合创始人、执行董事、董事会主席兼首席执行官(2010年至今),也是中国生物医药领域极具影响力的企业家之一。
二、教育背景
1990年:毕业于麻省理工学院(MIT),获理学学士学位(专业未明确提及,但早期职业生涯涉及机械工程与生物领域)。
1996年:毕业于斯坦福大学商学院,获工商管理硕士(MBA)学位。
三、职业生涯经历
欧雷强的职业生涯横跨咨询、创业与生物医药行业,核心经历如下:
1. 咨询行业起步(1990-1997年)
以管理顾问身份加入麦肯锡公司(McKinsey & Company),开启职业生涯。期间积累了战略规划、运营管理与商业咨询经验,为后续创业奠定了基础。
2. 首次进入生物医药行业(1997-1998年)
1997年至1998年,担任Genta Incorporated(纳斯达克上市、肿瘤重点生物制药企业)联席首席执行官。这段经历让他深入接触到生物医药企业的运营模式与研发流程。
3. 第一次创业:电信数据领域(1998-2002年)
1998年,离开Genta后创立Telephia, Inc.(信息商业公司,类似IMS/IQVIA,为决策提供数据服务),并担任总裁。2007年,Telephia以4.49亿美元被尼尔森公司(The Nielsen Company)收购,首次创业获得成功。
4. 回归生物医药:CRO领域创业(2002-2009年)
2002-2004年:担任Galenea Corp(中枢神经系统疾病治疗方法研发企业)首席执行官,积累了生物制药研发管理经验。
2005-2009年:创立BioDuro, LLC(药品开发外包公司,CRO领域),并担任总裁兼首席执行官。2009年,BioDuro以7700万美元被Pharmaceutical Product Development Inc.(PPD)收购。此次创业让他深刻理解了中国生物医药研发的成本优势与人才潜力,为后续进入中国市场埋下伏笔。
5. 联合创立百济神州(2010年至今)
2010年,与王晓东(美国科学院院士、北京生命科学研究所所长)共同创立百济神州(北京)生物科技有限公司,并担任执行董事、董事会主席兼首席执行官。百济神州聚焦肿瘤创新药研发,先后推出百悦泽(泽布替尼,BTK抑制剂)、百泽安(替雷利珠单抗,PD-1抑制剂)等核心产品,成为中国生物医药领域的标杆企业。2019年,欧雷强入选生物技术产业协会(BIO)董事会及其卫生部门理事会,深度参与全球生物医药政策制定。
四、核心成就与荣誉
百济神州发展:带领百济神州从初创企业成长为全球性创新药企,其核心产品百悦泽(泽布替尼)成为全球同类药物领导者,覆盖70多个市场;百泽安(替雷利珠单抗)在中国获批多个适应症,推动中国创新药纳入医保。
行业认可:2019年入选BIO董事会及卫生部门理事会,成为全球生物医药行业的重要参与者;其创业经历被多家媒体报道,成为中国生物医药领域的典型案例。
五、总结
欧雷强的职业生涯以“跨领域、国际化、创新”为核心标签:从咨询到电信,再回归生物医药,每一次转型都抓住了时代机遇;其创业经历覆盖美国与中国市场,深刻理解全球生物医药行业的趋势与需求;作为百济神州的掌舵人,他带领企业实现了从0到1的突破,成为中国创新药走向世界的代表。
John V. Oyler's Professional Profile
I. Basic Information
John V. Oyler, born in 1969, is an American entrepreneur with a master’s degree. He serves as the Co-founder, Executive Director, Board Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of BeiGene (Beijing) Co., Ltd., a global innovative biopharmaceutical company, since 2010. He is widely regarded as one of the most influential entrepreneurs in China’s biopharmaceutical industry.
II. Educational Background
1990: Graduated from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with a Bachelor of Science (B.S.) in an unspecified discipline, though his early career involved mechanical engineering and biology.
1996: Earned a Master of Business Administration (MBA) from Stanford University Graduate School of Business.
III. Professional Career
John Oyler’s career spans consulting, entrepreneurship, and the biopharmaceutical industry, with a clear focus on innovation and global expansion.
1. Consulting: Laying the Foundation (1990–1997)
He began his career as a management consultant at McKinsey & Company, where he gained expertise in strategic planning, operational management, and business consulting—skills that would later underpin his entrepreneurial ventures.
2. Early Biopharmaceutical Experience: Genta Incorporated (1997–1998)
In 1997, Oyler joined Genta Incorporated, a Nasdaq-listed biopharmaceutical company focused on oncology, as Co-Chief Executive Officer (Co-CEO). This role provided him with hands-on experience in the operations and R&D processes of a biotech firm.
3. First Entrepreneurship: Telephia, Inc. (1998–2002)
In 1998, Oyler left Genta to found Telephia, Inc., a data analytics company akin to IMS Health/IQVIA, which provided decision-support data to the pharmaceutical industry. He served as President of Telephia until its acquisition by The Nielsen Company in 2007 for $449 million—a successful exit that marked his first major entrepreneurial achievement.
4. Second Entrepreneurship: BioDuro, LLC (2002–2009)
Between 2002 and 2004, Oyler served as CEO of Galenea Corp, a biotech firm developing treatments for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, further deepening his expertise in biopharmaceutical R&D management.
In 2005, he founded BioDuro, LLC, a contract research organization (CRO) focused on drug development. As President and CEO, he led BioDuro to become a leading player in the CRO space, with its 2009 acquisition by Pharmaceutical Product Development, Inc. (PPD) for $77 million solidifying his reputation as a successful biotech entrepreneur. This experience also exposed him to the cost advantages and talent pool of China’s biopharmaceutical industry, planting the seeds for his future focus on the Chinese market.
5. Co-founding BeiGene: Leading China’s Biopharmaceutical Rise (2010–Present)
In 2010, Oyler partnered with Wang Xiaodong (a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and President of the Beijing Institute of Life Science) to co-found BeiGene (Beijing) Co., Ltd., a company dedicated to developing innovative oncology drugs. As Executive Director, Board Chairman, and CEO, he has led BeiGene from a startup to a global leader in biopharmaceuticals.
Under his leadership, BeiGene has launched two blockbuster products:
BRUKINSA® (zanubrutinib): A BTK inhibitor for lymphoma, which has been approved in over 70 markets worldwide and became the first Chinese-developed oncology drug to receive accelerated approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
TEVIMBRA® (tislelizumab): A PD-1 inhibitor for solid tumors, which has been approved in multiple countries, including China, the U.S., and the European Union (EU).
Oyler’s global vision has been instrumental in BeiGene’s expansion: the company established its first U.S. clinical research and production base in New Jersey in 2024 and continues to advance a pipeline of innovative therapies for cancer and other diseases.
In 2019, he was elected to the Board of Directors of the Biotechnology Innovation Organization (BIO) and its Health Section Board, further cementing his role as a key player in the global biopharmaceutical industry.
IV. Key Achievements and Honors
Leadership at BeiGene: Transformed BeiGene from a startup into a global innovative biopharmaceutical company, with products approved in over 70 markets and a pipeline of over 20 clinical-stage candidates.
Industry Recognition: Elected to the BIO Board of Directors in 2019, becoming one of the few Chinese entrepreneurs to hold such a position in a leading global biotech organization.
Global Impact: Led BeiGene to become the first Chinese company to launch an oncology drug (BRUKINSA®) in the U.S. via the accelerated approval pathway, setting a precedent for Chinese biotech firms entering the global market.
V. Summary
John Oyler’s career is defined by cross-industry expertise, international perspective, and a commitment to innovation. From consulting to entrepreneurship in telecom and biopharmaceuticals, each phase of his career has been marked by a focus on solving complex problems and creating value. As the leader of BeiGene, he has not only built a successful global company but also helped position China as a key player in the global biopharmaceutical industry. His experience and vision make him a respected figure among entrepreneurs and industry leaders worldwide.
(All information is based on public sources, including BeiGene’s official announcements, media reports, and industry databases.)
黄金GOLD趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:周级别超买,周⾼点可能已经临近。
日线复合:日⾼点临近,可能与周⾼点重合。(熊)
关键因素:自10月 28 日低点 开始的上涨看起来属于修正⾏情。12 月初出现了收盘价重叠,这不符合推动浪的特征,⽽是典型的修正⾛势。尽管目前⽆论周还是日线动能都尚未进⼊转势状态,但如果这轮上涨如预期是⼀次修正,下周应当是完成这波上涨的最晚时间窗⼝。
交易策略建议:仍然选择观望策略,直到黄⾦运⾏到⼀个可以确定完成周线低点的位置,⽽这⼀情况在未来⼏周内不太可能出现。在我看来,这轮自 10 月⾼点开始、呈现为横盘震荡区间的修正完成后,⽆论是向上还是向下,都很难获得的有价值的交易机会。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!
跨年妖候选之威帝股份从格雷厄姆投资核心技术角度分析威帝股份(603023)
一、核心结论
威帝股份作为国内商用车车身电子控制领域的领军企业,具备一定的技术积累与市场份额,但技术垄断性较弱、新业务拓展尚未形成规模效应,且近期业绩表现不佳。从格雷厄姆的“安全边际”与“内在价值”核心思想看,其当前估值偏高,不具备显著投资价值,业绩爆炸性预期的概率较低。
二、格雷厄姆投资核心技术角度的具体分析
格雷厄姆的投资逻辑以“安全边际”为核心,强调企业内在价值与市场价格的偏离,重视资产质量、盈利能力、技术壁垒及成长确定性。以下从五大维度展开分析:
(一)基本面:营收增长但盈利下滑,资产质量承压
威帝股份的基本面呈现“营收增长、盈利下滑”的特征,资产质量虽安全但效率低下。
营收与利润:2024年营收6523.57万元(同比+23.10%),净利润505.55万元(扭亏为盈),主要受益于海外客车需求恢复及国内公交订单增加;2025年前三季度营收1.10亿元(同比+85.84%),但净利润仅70.58万元(同比-80.11%),扣非净利润23.48万元(同比-92.40%),盈利质量大幅下滑。
资产质量:2024年末总资产8.85亿元(同比+11.93%),净资产7.84亿元(同比+0.77%),资产负债率11.41%(安全边际高);但2025年三季度末总资产9.18亿元(同比+2.82%),净资产7.82亿元(同比-0.25%),资产扩张主要依赖负债(2025年三季度负债1.36亿元,同比+14.29%),资产效率低下。
(二)渗透率:商用车电子控制渗透率提升,但竞争加剧
威帝股份的核心业务(CAN总线、车身电子控制)处于商用车智能化转型的核心赛道,渗透率持续提升,但竞争加剧导致市场份额面临挤压。
行业渗透率:2024年国内商用车电子控制渗透率约35%(其中新能源商用车渗透率超50%),2025年预计提升至45%(新能源商用车渗透率超60%)。威帝股份的CAN总线产品市场份额约15%(国内商用车车身电子控制领域),但受瑞立科密(气压电控制动系统市占率第一)、亚太股份(线控制动系统)等竞争对手挤压,份额呈下降趋势。
(三)技术垄断性:研发投入不足,专利布局薄弱
威帝股份的技术垄断性较弱,研发投入与专利数量均落后于行业龙头。
研发投入:2024年研发投入1103.91万元(占营收16.92%),2025年前三季度研发投入892.74万元(占营收8.12%),低于行业平均(瑞立科密2024年研发投入占比21.3%)。
专利布局:截至2025年12月,威帝股份拥有专利约50项(其中发明专利12项),主要集中在CAN总线、车身控制领域;而瑞立科密拥有专利约200项(其中发明专利45项),覆盖气压制动、线控制动、智能驾驶等全领域,技术壁垒更高。
(四)产品独家垄断性:无独家产品,竞争依赖性价比
威帝股份的产品无独家垄断性,主要依赖“性价比”与“客户资源”竞争。
核心产品:CAN总线控制系统(市场份额15%)、车身域控制器(市场份额8%)、智能座舱系统(市场份额5%),均为行业通用产品,未形成独家技术或专利壁垒。
竞争策略:通过“低价策略”抢占中低端市场(如新能源客车车身电子控制),但受瑞立科密(高端气压制动)、亚太股份(线控制动)等企业的高端产品挤压,利润空间持续缩小。
(五)业绩爆炸性预期:缺乏核心驱动因素,概率较低
威帝股份的业绩无爆炸性预期,主要因新业务拓展缓慢、传统业务增长乏力及行业竞争加剧。
新业务拓展:2024年12月收购阿法硅51%股权(新能源共性技术研究院),试图切入乘用车领域,但阿法硅2024年营收仅1200万元(同比-35%),净利润亏损150万元,尚未形成规模效应。
传统业务增长:2024年商用车电子控制营收5800万元(同比+20%),2025年前三季度营收8500万元(同比+30%),但受行业竞争加剧(瑞立科密2024年商用车电子控制营收1.2亿元,同比+40%),增长速度低于行业平均。
行业风险:商用车行业进入“存量竞争”阶段(2024年国内商用车销量387.30万辆,同比+2.6%),新能源商用车渗透率提升(2024年占比30%),但威帝股份的新能源商用车电子控制产品(如电池管理系统BMS)尚未形成竞争力,难以受益于行业增长。
三、投资建议
从格雷厄姆的投资核心技术角度看,威帝股份不具备显著投资价值,理由如下:
基本面薄弱:盈利下滑、资产效率低下,安全边际不足;
技术垄断性弱:研发投入不足、专利布局薄弱,无法形成技术壁垒;
产品无独家性:依赖性价比竞争,市场份额面临挤压;
业绩无爆炸性预期:新业务拓展缓慢、传统业务增长乏力,难以实现业绩爆发。
风险提示:商用车行业存量竞争加剧、新能源商用车渗透率提升不及预期、新业务拓展失败。
注:以上分析基于2024-2025年公开数据,投资需谨慎,建议结合最新财报及行业动态调整判断
跨年妖候选之神剑股份从格雷厄姆投资核心技术角度分析神剑股份(002361.SZ)
一、格雷厄姆投资核心技术概述
格雷厄姆作为价值投资的奠基人,其核心技术强调安全边际(资产价值与市场价格的差额)、基本面分析(财务健康、盈利稳定性、资产质量)、护城河(技术、品牌、成本优势)及长期价值(企业持续创造现金流的能力)。对于神剑股份这类双主业(化工新材料+高端装备制造)企业,需结合这些标准评估其投资价值。
二、神剑股份基本面分析(格雷厄姆视角)
格雷厄姆认为,基本面是价值投资的核心,需重点关注财务健康、盈利稳定性及资产质量。
1. 财务健康状况
资产质量:截至2025年9月30日,公司总资产46.23亿元,其中流动资产28.17亿元(占比60.9%),非流动资产18.06亿元(占比39.1%)。流动资产中,应收账款14.48亿元(占比51.4%),货币资金4.86亿元(占比17.3%),短期借款14.98亿元(占比32.4%)。资产负债率51.62%,处于行业合理水平,但短期偿债能力偏弱(流动比率1.31,速动比率1.11),需警惕应收账款回收风险。
盈利稳定性:2025年前三季度,公司实现营业总收入18.34亿元(同比+5.64%),归母净利润3032万元(同比+3.81%),扣非净利润2602.75万元(同比+54.29%)。扣非净利润增速显著高于归母净利润,说明主业盈利能力改善(化工新材料板块利润回升),非经常性收益影响较小。
现金流状况:2025年前三季度,经营活动现金流净额为-1.40亿元(同比减少46.02%),主要因应收账款增加(14.48亿元,同比+19.48%)及预付款项增加(193.77%,同比+193.77%)。现金流虽紧张,但资产负债率稳定,未出现流动性危机。
2. 资产质量与护城河
固定资产与无形资产:公司拥有固定资产22.65亿元(占比49.0%),主要为聚酯树脂生产线及军工制造设备;无形资产1.23亿元(占比2.7%),主要为专利技术(化工领域159项,装备制造领域99项)。固定资产占比高,说明企业属于重资产行业,进入壁垒较高(需大量资金投入生产线)。
无形资产(专利):公司拥有国家级企业技术中心及安徽省聚酯工程技术研究中心,专利储备丰富(化工领域159项,装备制造领域99项),其中低温固化树脂(环保型)、碳纤维复合材料(军工/航空用)为核心专利,形成技术护城河。
3. 盈利稳定性与成长能力
盈利稳定性:2023-2025年,公司净利润分别为1875万元、2171万元、2066万元(前三季度),保持小幅增长;扣非净利润分别为1234万元、1687万元、2603万元(前三季度),2025年增速显著提升(+54.29%),说明主业盈利能力改善(化工新材料板块受益于环保政策,需求增长)。
成长能力:2025年前三季度,营业收入同比增长5.64%,主要因珠海项目投产(聚酯树脂产能提升)及军工订单增加(卫星天线、无人机机体等)。扣非净利润增速远高于营业收入,说明企业成本控制有效(原材料自给率提升,如NPG自供率70%)。
三、行业渗透率分析(格雷厄姆视角)
格雷厄姆认为,行业渗透率反映市场需求增长潜力,高渗透率行业(或细分领域)具备持续增长空间。
1. 化工新材料领域(粉末涂料用聚酯树脂)
行业渗透率:粉末涂料作为环保型涂料,其工业涂料渗透率从2023年的18%提升至2025年的25%(预计),主要因环保政策(如《低挥发性有机物含量涂料产品技术要求》)推动“漆改粉”进程。神剑股份作为全球领先的粉末涂料用聚酯树脂供应商(产能22万吨/年,珠海项目投产后将达32万吨/年),市场占有率约10%-15%(2025年),受益于渗透率提升,需求持续增长。
细分领域渗透率:新能源汽车领域,粉末涂料用于电池壳体、充电桩等部件,2025年需求增速达30%(预计);光伏领域,粉末涂料用于光伏型材,2025年需求占比达10%(预计)。神剑股份的聚酯树脂产品已进入新能源汽车(如特斯拉)及光伏(如隆基绿能)供应链,细分领域渗透率提升为其带来增长潜力。
2. 高端装备制造领域(军工/航空航天)
行业渗透率:军工领域,卫星天线、无人机机体等产品的渗透率较低(预计2025年卫星天线渗透率约5%),但国家星网项目(计划发射1.3万颗卫星)及商业航天(如蓝箭航天、朱雀航天)的爆发,推动需求快速增长。神剑股份作为航天科技集团一级供应商(批量供应卫星天线、反射器),独家为蓝箭航天朱雀三号火箭提供尾段结构件(市占率逾40%),渗透率提升(预计2025年卫星天线市占率达10%)为其带来高增长。
四、发展潜力分析(格雷厄姆视角)
格雷厄姆认为,发展潜力取决于企业的产能扩张、技术研发及市场拓展能力。
1. 产能扩张计划
化工新材料板块:珠海项目(2025年下半年投产)将新增聚酯树脂产能10万吨/年,总产能达32万吨/年,市占率提升至25%(预计)。产能扩张将缓解当前“满产满销”状态(2025年前三季度产能利用率达95%),满足新能源、光伏等新兴领域的需求。
高端装备制造板块:西安嘉业航空(军工制造基地)的无人机机体产能(300架份/季度)及碳纤维复合材料产能(5000吨/年)将根据订单逐步释放,支撑军工及航空航天领域的增长。
2. 技术研发与创新
化工新材料领域:公司持续投入研发(2025年前三季度研发费用占比3.2%),重点开发低温固化树脂(能耗降低30%)、生物基树脂(环保型)等新产品,技术壁垒提升(专利数量行业前三)。
高端装备制造领域:公司掌握碳纤维复合材料(应用于卫星天线、无人机机体)、3D打印(军工零部件)等核心技术,产品附加值提升(卫星天线毛利率达20%以上)。
3. 市场拓展与客户资源
化工新材料板块:公司已进入特斯拉(新能源汽车)、隆基绿能(光伏)等头部企业供应链,客户资源优质,产品远销海外(中东、欧美等地区,占比17.81%)。
高端装备制造板块:公司是航天科技集团(一级供应商)、蓝箭航天(独家尾段结构件供应商)、中车集团(磁悬浮列车碳纤维部件供应商)的核心合作伙伴,客户粘性高(订单持续增长)。
五、业绩爆炸性预期分析(格雷厄姆视角)
格雷厄姆认为,业绩爆炸性预期需基于产能释放、订单增长及行业渗透率提升,且需具备可持续性。
1. 短期(2025-2026年):业绩修复与增长
化工新材料板块:珠海项目投产(2025年下半年)将缓解产能瓶颈,营业收入增速预计达10%-15%(2026年);扣非净利润增速预计达20%-30%(2026年),主要因新能源、光伏等新兴领域的需求增长及成本控制(原材料自给率提升)。
高端装备制造板块:军工订单(卫星天线、无人机机体)2025年预计突破2亿元(同比增长50%以上),2026年预计达3亿元(同比增长50%),主要因国家星网项目及商业航天的爆发。
2. 长期(2027-2030年):可持续增长
化工新材料板块:随着粉末涂料渗透率(工业涂料)提升至30%(2030年预计),公司聚酯树脂产能(32万吨/年)将充分释放,营业收入增速预计达8%-12%(2030年);扣非净利润增速预计达15%-20%(2030年),主要因产品结构优化(高端产品占比提升至30%以上)。
高端装备制造板块:随着商业航天(卫星、火箭)及低空经济(无人机)的发展,公司卫星天线、无人机机体等产品
一天一家A股公司高管:上纬新材料科技股份有限公司董事长 彭志辉(稚晖君)当资本成为诗行:一位企业掌舵者的价值投资叙事
一、基本信息
彭志辉,1993年出生于江西吉安永新县高溪乡梅花村,中国国籍,硕士研究生学历,电子科技大学通信与信息系统专业毕业。他拥有正高级工程师职称,是科技圈知名KOL,因擅长研发硬核机器人及科技创作,被粉丝称为“稚晖君”“野生钢铁侠”。
二、教育背景
本科:2015年毕业于电子科技大学生命科学与技术学院;
硕士:2018年毕业于电子科技大学信息与通信工程学院。
三、职业经历
彭志辉的职业轨迹涵盖科技企业任职与创业,核心经历如下:
OPPO研究院:毕业后,他加入OPPO研究院AI实验室,担任算法工程师,从事AI相关技术研发。
华为技术有限公司:2020年,彭志辉通过七轮面试加入华为“天才少年”计划(最高档年薪201万元),入职计算产品线昇腾部门,主要研究方向为AI边缘异构计算领域。2022年底,他从华为离职。
智元机器人创业:2023年2月,彭志辉与原华为公司副总裁、计算产品线原总裁邓泰华等联合创立智元机器人(全称“上海智元新创技术有限公司”),担任联合创始人、总裁兼CTO。智元机器人专注于具身智能机器人研发,其首款人形机器人“远征A1”于2023年8月亮相,后续推出“灵犀X2”等系列产品。
上纬新材董事长:2025年11月25日,上纬新材通过董事会换届选举,彭志辉当选为第四届董事会董事长,并担任公司战略与可持续发展委员会主任委员。此次任职与智元机器人入主上纬新材的资本运作相关(2025年7月,智元机器人拟通过“协议转让+要约收购”方式获取上纬新材控制权)。
四、其他身份与荣誉
科技KOL:彭志辉是B站“顶流”科技UP主,截至2025年3月,B站粉丝超269万人,微博粉丝超100万人。其发布的《自动驾驶自行车》《钢铁侠迷你机械臂》等视频获广泛关注,其中《自动驾驶自行车》获“Java之父”詹姆斯·高斯林点赞。
社会任职:担任工业和信息化部人形机器人标准化技术委员会副主任委员、上海证券交易所科技创新咨询委员会委员等职务。
荣誉称号:曾获“哔哩哔哩2021年度百大UP主”“2023胡润U30中国创业先锋”“2025中国年度AI人物”“2025福布斯U40”等荣誉。
I. Basic Information
Peng Zhihui was born in 1993 in Gaoxi Township, Yongxin County, Ji'an City, Jiangxi Province, China. He holds a Chinese nationality and a master's degree in Communication and Information Systems from the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China (UESTC). He has the title of Senior Engineer (正高级工程师) and is a well-known tech KOL in the industry, nicknamed "Zhìhuī Jūn" (野生钢铁侠, "Wild Steel Hero") by fans for his expertise in developing hard-core robots and tech innovations.
II. Educational Background
• Undergraduate: Graduated from the School of Life Science and Technology, UESTC in 2015.
• Master's Degree: Graduated from the School of Information and Communication Engineering, UESTC in 2018.
III. Professional Experience
Peng Zhihui's career spans technology enterprises and entrepreneurship, with key roles including:
1. OPPO Research Institute: After graduation, he joined the AI Lab of OPPO Research Institute as an algorithm engineer, focusing on R&D in artificial intelligence.
2. Huawei Technologies: In 2020, he joined Huawei's "Genius Youth Program" (the highest tier with an annual salary of 2.01 million yuan) through seven rounds of interviews. He served as an algorithm engineer in the Computing Product Line's Ascend Division, researching AI edge heterogeneous computing. He left Huawei at the end of 2022.
3. Zhiyuan Robotics (Shanghai Zhiyuan New Innovation Technology Co., Ltd.): In 2023, he co-founded Zhiyuan Robotics with Deng Taihua (former Vice President of Huawei and President of Huawei's Computing Product Line) and others. He serves as Co-founder, President, and CTO. The company focuses on R&D of embodied intelligent robots; its first humanoid robot, "Yuanzheng A1," was unveiled in August 2023, followed by subsequent products such as "Lingxi X2."
4. Swancor Advanced Materials Co., Ltd. (上纬新材): On November 25, 2025, Swancor Advanced Materials (a Shanghai-listed company specializing in new materials) held a board of directors election, and Peng Zhihui was elected Chairman of the Fourth Board of Directors and Director of the Strategic and Sustainable Development Committee. This appointment is related to Zhiyuan Robotics' capital operation to take control of Swancor: in July 2025, Zhiyuan Robotics planned to acquire a controlling stake in Swancor through "agreement transfer + tender offer."
IV. Other Identities and Honors
• Tech KOL: He is a top tech UP主 on Bilibili, with over 2.69 million followers (as of March 2025) and over 1 million followers on Weibo. His videos, such as Autonomous Bicycle and Steel Hero Mini Mechanical Arm, have received widespread attention; Autonomous Bicycle was praised by James Gosling (the "Father of Java").
• Social Positions: He serves as Vice Chairman of the Humanoid Robot Standardization Technical Committee of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and a member of the Science and Technology Innovation Consulting Committee of the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
• Honors: He has received titles such as "Bilibili 2021 Top 100 UP主," "2023 Hurun China U30 Entrepreneur," "2025 China Annual AI Figure," and "2025 Forbes U40."
This profile integrates information from multiple authoritative sources, including company announcements, media reports, and official websites, to provide a comprehensive overview of Peng Zhihui's background, career, and achievements.
原油 CRUDE 趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:混合,在技术因素同步之前,市场不太可能形成持续、稳定的趋势。
日线复合:多头,但仍需要日线⼀个超波多头反转的出现才能确认日线级别的低点已经形成。(牛)
关键因素:自10月⾼点 以来的下跌仍然属于修正结构,但原油已经运⾏⾄⼀个修正应当完成的极限区域。如果日线收盘价跌破 10 月的日线收盘低点,则将构成新的低点,并警告这轮下跌可能并非修正,⽽是趋势性的下跌。
交易策略建议:日线收盘价站上 12/10 的收盘价,是低点完成的初步信号;⽽明确的确认信号是收盘价突破12/5 的摆动⾼点收盘价。鉴于此前已经出现多次假反转与假突破,我会等待收盘价确认站上 12/5 的收盘价,再次建立多头仓位,以把握⼀轮可能持续数月的上涨⾏情。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!
一天一家A股公司高管:中科寒武纪科技股份有限公司董事长陈天石当资本成为诗行:一位企业掌舵者的价值投资叙事
一、基本信息
陈天石,男,1985年6月出生于江西南昌,汉族,中国国籍,无境外永久居留权。他是中科寒武纪科技股份有限公司(以下简称“寒武纪”)创始人、董事长兼CEO,同时也是中国科学院计算技术研究所研究员、九三学社中央委员会促进技术创新工作委员会副主任、第十四届全国政协委员。
二、教育背景
陈天石的教育经历贯穿“天才少年”与“学术深耕”的主线:
1998-2001年:就读于南昌市第二中学(初中);
2001-2005年:考入中国科学技术大学少年班,攻读数学与应用数学专业,获理学学士学位;
2005-2010年:保送至中国科学技术大学计算机学院,师从陈国良院士、姚新教授,攻读计算机软件与理论专业,获工学博士学位。
其教育经历体现了“早慧”与“专注”的特点:16岁进入中科大少年班,25岁完成博士学业,且在本科至博士阶段始终保持对计算机体系结构与人工智能的兴趣,为后续科研与创业奠定了基础。
三、职业经历
陈天石的职业路径分为“学术科研”与“创业实践”两大阶段,两者相互支撑,共同推动其在AI芯片领域的突破:
1. 学术科研阶段(2010-2016年)
博士毕业后,陈天石进入中国科学院计算技术研究所工作,历任助理研究员(2010-2013年)、副研究员(2013-2016年)、研究员(2016年至今)。期间,他专注于计算机体系结构与计算智能的交叉研究,重点探索AI芯片的基础理论与设计方法。
其学术成果丰硕,发表论文40余篇(涵盖IEEE/ACM Transactions、ASPLOS、ISCA、MICRO等国际顶级期刊与会议),并获得多项荣誉:
2014年,论文《DianNao:一种小尺度的高吞吐率机器学习加速器》获ASPLOS最佳论文奖,同年《DaDianNao》获MICRO最佳论文奖;
2011年,获中国计算机学会优秀博士论文奖、中国科学院优秀博士论文奖;
2012年,获全国百篇优秀博士论文提名奖。
这些成果奠定了他在AI芯片领域的学术地位,也为后续创业提供了技术积累。
2. 创业实践阶段(2016年至今)
2016年,陈天石带领团队核心成员创立寒武纪(原名“中科寒武纪科技股份有限公司”),并担任董事长兼CEO。公司名称“寒武纪”源自地质学上的“生命大爆发”时代,寓意“人工智能芯片将引发智能时代的物种大爆发”。
创业初期(2016-2019年):
2016年,推出世界首款终端人工智能专用处理器“寒武纪1A”,并集成至华为Mate10手机,实现AI芯片的商业化落地;
2017年,发布3款新品(能耗比超越“寒武纪1A”),覆盖图像识别、安防监控、智能驾驶等应用领域;
2018年,推出面向视觉领域的“寒武纪1H8”“寒武纪1H16”、面向智能驾驶的“寒武纪1M”,以及人工智能系统软件“Cambricon NeuWare”;
2019年,发布面向边缘人工智能计算的“思元220”芯片,形成“终端-边缘-云端”完整智能芯片产品线。
上市与扩张(2020年至今):
2020年7月20日,寒武纪在科创板上市(股票代码:688256),成为“国内AI芯片第一股”,首日开盘价250元/股,较发行价上涨288%,市值一度突破千亿;
2023年,推出“思元590”芯片(7nm工艺),推理能效比比肩国际巨头,支持国内主流大模型,迎来云端产品线爆发;
2024年,实现单季盈利,营收同比增长43倍;
2025年,寒武纪市值一度突破6000亿元,成为A股“科技龙头”之一。
社会任职:
2023年,当选第十四届全国政协委员、九三学社中央委员会促进技术创新工作委员会副主任;
2025年,获评“第六届全国非公有制经济人士优秀中国特色社会主义事业建设者”。
四、主要成就与荣誉
陈天石的成就涵盖学术研究与商业实践两大领域:
1. 学术成就
提出“算法-架构-芯片”协同设计理念,推动AI芯片从“通用”向“专用”转型;
发表多篇国际顶级论文(如ASPLOS、MICRO最佳论文),引领AI芯片领域的学术发展;
获得国家自然科学奖二等奖、中国科学院杰出科技成就奖等多项学术荣誉。
2. 商业成就
创立寒武纪,成为全球智能芯片领域的先行者,公司估值一度突破6000亿元;
推出多款具有自主知识产权的AI芯片(如“寒武纪1A”“思元590”),实现AI芯片的商业化落地,支持华为、小米等主流厂商的产品;
带领寒武纪成为“国产替代”的核心企业之一,在云端、边缘、终端等领域形成完整产品线。
五、个人特点与理念
陈天石的性格与理念贯穿“专注”“务实”“创新”三大关键词:
专注:深耕AI芯片领域十余年,拒绝短期盈利诱惑,坚持“死磕技术”;
务实:强调“芯片是硅疙瘩,要支持下游应用”,将学术成果转化为实际产品;
创新:提出“寒武纪大爆发”的理念,认为AI芯片将推动智能时代的到来,坚持“做难而正确的事”。
六、总结
陈天石从“天才少年”到“AI芯片创业者”的路径,体现了“学术深耕”与“商业实践”的结合。他创立的寒武纪,不仅推动了中国AI芯片产业的发展,也为全球智能时代提供了“中国方案”。其个人履历中的“教育背景”“学术成果”“商业成就”,共同构成了“科技创业者”的典型样本,激励着更多年轻人投身于硬科技领域。
Chen Tianshi
I. Basic Information
Chen Tianshi, male, born in June 1985 in Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, Han ethnicity, Chinese citizen with no permanent residence abroad. He is the founder, Chairman, and CEO of Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited (hereinafter referred to as "Cambricon"), a researcher at the Institute of Computing Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (ICT), Vice Chairman of the Promotion Committee for Technological Innovation of the Central Committee of Jiusan Society, and a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
II. Educational Background
Chen Tianshi's educational journey is characterized by "prodigy" and "academic dedication":
1998-2001: Studied at Nanchang No. 2 High School (junior high school).
2001-2005: Admitted to the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) Young Talent Class, majoring in Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, and received a Bachelor of Science degree.
2005-2010: Recommended for postgraduate study at USTC's School of Computer Science and Technology, under the supervision of Academician Chen Guoliang and Professor Yao Xin, majoring in Computer Software and Theory, and received a Doctor of Engineering degree.
His academic path reflects "early maturity" and "persistence": entering USTC Young Talent Class at 16, completing his doctorate at 25, and maintaining a consistent interest in computer architecture and artificial intelligence from undergraduate to postgraduate studies, laying a solid foundation for his subsequent academic research and entrepreneurship.
III. Professional Experience
Chen Tianshi's professional career is divided into two interrelated stages: "academic research" and "entrepreneurial practice," both of which have promoted breakthroughs in the field of AI chips:
1. Academic Research Stage (2010-2016)
After graduating with a doctorate, Chen Tianshi joined ICT, serving successively as Assistant Researcher (2010-2013), Associate Researcher (2013-2016), and Researcher (2016-present). During this period, he focused on interdisciplinary research in computer architecture and computational intelligence, exploring the basic theories and design methods of AI chips.
His academic achievements are remarkable. He published over 40 papers in top international journals and conferences (including IEEE/ACM Transactions, ASPLOS, ISCA, MICRO, etc.) and received multiple honors:
2014: His papers DianNao: A Small-Footprint High-Throughput Accelerator for Ubiquitous Machine-Learningwon the ASPLOS Best Paper Award, and DaDianNaowon the MICRO Best Paper Award.
2011: Received the Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award of the China Computer Federation (CCF) and the Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award of ICT.
2012: Nominated for the National Outstanding Doctoral Dissertation Award.
These achievements established his academic status in the field of AI chips and provided technical support for his subsequent entrepreneurship.
2. Entrepreneurial Practice Stage (2016-Present)
In 2016, Chen Tianshi led the core team to establish Cambricon (formerly known as "Cambricon Technologies (Beijing) Co., Ltd.") and served as Chairman and CEO. The company name "Cambricon" is derived from the "Cambrian Explosion" in geology, implying that "AI chips will trigger a great explosion of intelligent species in the era of artificial intelligence."
Early Entrepreneurship (2016-2019):
2016: Launched the world's first terminal AI accelerator "Cambricon 1A," which was integrated into Huawei Mate 10, achieving commercial landing of AI chips.
2017: Released three new products (with better energy efficiency than "Cambricon 1A"), covering applications in image recognition, security monitoring, and intelligent driving.
2018: Launched "Cambricon 1H8" and "Cambricon 1H16" for the vision field, "Cambricon 1M" for intelligent driving, and the artificial intelligence system software "Cambricon NeuWare."
2019: Released the "Cambricon MLU220" chip for edge artificial intelligence computing, forming a complete product line of "terminal-edge-cloud" intelligent chips.
Listing and Expansion (2020-Present):
July 2020: Cambricon was listed on the STAR Market (stock code: 688256), becoming the "first AI chip stock in China." The opening price on the first day was 250 yuan per share, a 288% increase from the issue price, and the market value once exceeded 100 billion yuan.
2023: Launched the "Cambricon MLU590" chip (7nm process), whose reasoning energy efficiency was comparable to international giants, supporting mainstream domestic large models and ushering in an outbreak in the cloud product line.
2024: Achieved quarterly profitability, with revenue growing by 43 times year-on-year.
2025: Cambricon's market value once exceeded 600 billion yuan, becoming one of the "leading technology stocks" in the A-share market.
Social Positions:
2023: Elected as a member of the 14th National Committee of the CPPCC and Vice Chairman of the Promotion Committee for Technological Innovation of the Central Committee of Jiusan Society.
2025: Awarded the title of "Fifth National Outstanding Private Entrepreneur in the Construction of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics."
IV. Main Achievements and Honors
Chen Tianshi's achievements cover both academic research and business practice:
1. Academic Achievements
Proposed the concept of "algorithm-architecture-chip" collaborative design, promoting the transformation of AI chips from "general-purpose" to "specialized."
Published multiple top international papers (such as ASPLOS and MICRO Best Papers), leading the academic development in the field of AI chips.
Received the Second Prize of the National Natural Science Award, the Outstanding Achievement Award of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and other academic honors.
2. Business Achievements
Founded Cambricon, becoming a global pioneer in the field of intelligent chips. The company's valuation once exceeded 600 billion yuan.
Launched multiple independently developed AI chips (such as "Cambricon 1A" and "Cambricon MLU590"), achieving commercial landing and supporting products from mainstream manufacturers such as Huawei and Xiaomi.
Led Cambricon to become a "core domestic enterprise" in "import substitution," forming a complete product line in the fields of cloud, edge, and terminal.
V. Personal Traits and Philosophy
Chen Tianshi's personality and philosophy are centered on three keywords: "focus," "pragmatism," and "innovation":
Focus: Devoted to the field of AI chips for more than a decade, resisting the temptation of short-term profits and adhering to "sticking to technology."
Pragmatism: Emphasized that "chips are silicon lumps and need to support downstream applications," transforming academic achievements into practical products.
Innovation: Proposed the concept of "Cambrian Explosion" in the AI chip industry, believing that AI chips will promote the arrival of the intelligent era and adhering to "doing difficult but correct things."
VI. Summary
Chen Tianshi's path from "prodigy" to "AI chip entrepreneur" embodies the combination of "academic dedication" and "business practice." The Cambricon he founded not only promoted the development of China's AI chip industry but also provided a "Chinese solution" for the global intelligent era. His personal resume, which combines "educational background," "academic achievements," and "business achievements," constitutes a typical sample of a "technology entrepreneur," inspiring more young people to devote themselves to hard technology fields.
S&P 500趨勢與基本交易策略週線複合:混合中性。
日線複合:空頭且未進入超賣(OS)這意味著短期走勢在未來至少 2–3 天內應以橫盤或下行為主,在日線低點完成之前,空頭壓力仍然存在。(熊)
關鍵因素:自上週高點開始的回落應被視為一次修正行情,隨後最終應繼續上行並創出新高。概率較高的最小上行目標為 7026;但如果如日線圖週四的走勢屬於第 1 浪,那麼上行空間應當遠高於 7026。
交易策略建議:下一個日線超波多頭反轉,將構成一個入場結構,行情將完成一次小級別修正,並延續週多頭趨勢,目標有可能顯著高於 10 月高點。修正低點應當在聖誕節前完成,理想情況下,在下週末之前形成。
⚠ 短期交易者應以TradingBox信號系統為準!
S&P 500趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:混合中性。
日线复合:空头且未进⼊超卖(OS)这意味着短期⾛势在未来⾄少 2–3 天内应以横盘或下⾏为主,在日线低点完成之前,空头压⼒仍然存在。(熊)
关键因素:自上周⾼点开始的回落应被视为⼀次修正⾏情,随后最终应继续上⾏并创出新⾼。概率较⾼的最小上⾏目标为 7026;但如果如日线图周四的⾛势属于第 1 浪,那么上⾏空间应当远⾼于 7026。
交易策略建议:下⼀个日线超波多头反转,将构成⼀个 ⼊场结构,⾏情将完成⼀次小级别修正,并延续周多头趋势,目标有可能显着⾼于 10 月⾼点。修正低点应当在圣诞节前完成,理想情况下,在下周末之前形成。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!
一天一家A股公司高管:福晶科技股份有限公司董事长陈辉当资本成为诗行:一位企业掌舵者的价值投资叙事
一、基本信息
陈辉,男,1966年2月出生,中国国籍,无其他国家长期居留权,教授级高级工程师,享受国务院政府特殊津贴。
二、教育背景
本科:清华大学激光物理专业(理学学士)与法学专业(法学学士)双学位;
EMBA:厦门大学管理学院EMBA(工商管理硕士)。
三、职业履历
陈辉的职业经历涵盖国际化企业、科研院所、国有资产管理及上市公司等多个领域,核心经历如下:
1994年之前:
曾在美国Skytek公司担任部门经理,期间主导建成中国科学院在海外的第一个生产性实体,获中科院主要领导高度评价。
1994年-2006年:
回国后加入中科院福建物质结构研究所(以下简称“物构所”)及旗下企业,逐步晋升至核心管理岗位:
历任福晶开发公司代总经理、总经理;
福晶有限公司(福晶科技前身)董事长;
物构所所长助理、副所长;
中科院国有资产经营有限责任公司(国科控股)副总经理。
2006年至今:
2006年6月起,担任福建福晶科技股份有限公司董事长,全面负责公司战略规划与运营管理。
四、主要荣誉与成就
荣誉奖项:
获“福建省新长征突击手”(1996年)、中科院“首届优秀青年”(1997年)、中科院“所级领导班子进步奖”(2000年)等称号;
社会认可:
享受国务院政府特殊津贴(2000年),其领导的福晶科技成为全球领先的激光晶体及光学元器件供应商,产品出口至美、日、德等国家和地区,市场占有率位居国际前列。
五、当前职务
截至2025年12月,陈辉仍担任福建福晶科技股份有限公司董事长,同时兼任公司董事会战略委员会主任委员(召集人)。
综上,陈辉凭借跨领域的教育背景、丰富的管理经验及对激光科技行业的深刻理解,带领福晶科技从科研院所下属企业成长为全球激光晶体领域的领军企业,其职业生涯贯穿“技术研发-企业管理-战略布局”全链条,是中国激光科技产业的重要推动者之一。
I. Basic Information
Chen Hui, male, born in February 1966, Chinese nationality, no long-term residence in other countries. Professor-level Senior Engineer, recipient of the Special Allowance of the State Council.
II. Educational Background
Bachelor's Degree: Double degrees in Laser Physics (Bachelor of Science) and Law (Bachelor of Laws) from Tsinghua University.
EMBA: Executive Master of Business Administration (EMBA) from Xiamen University School of Management.
III. Professional Experience
Chen Hui's career spans multinational enterprises, scientific research institutions, state-owned asset management, and listed companies, with a core trajectory as follows:
Before 1994
He once served as a department manager at Skytek (USA), where he led the establishment of the first productive entity of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) overseas, receiving high recognition from the leadership of CAS.
1994–2006
After returning to China, he joined the Fujian Institute of Research on the Structure of Matter, CAS (hereinafter referred to as "Fujian Institute") and its affiliated enterprises, gradually ascending to core management positions:
Acting General Manager and then General Manager of Fuzhou Fuxing Development Co., Ltd.;
Chairman of Fuzhou Fuxing Co., Ltd. (the predecessor of CASTECH);
Assistant to the Director and then Deputy Director of Fujian Institute;
Deputy General Manager of Chinese Academy of Sciences Holdings Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "CAS Holdings").
2006–Present
Since June 2006, he has served as Chairman of Fujian CASTECH Inc. (stock code: 002222), fully responsible for the company's strategic planning and operational management.
IV. Major Honors and Achievements
Honors
"Fujian New Long March Pacesetter" (1996);
"First Outstanding Young Scientist of CAS" (1997);
"Progress Award for the Leadership Team of CAS Institutes" (2000).
Social Recognition
Recipient of the Special Allowance of the State Council (2000).
Under his leadership, CASTECH has grown into a globally leading supplier of laser crystals and optical components. The company's products are exported to countries and regions such as the United States, Japan, and Germany, with a market share ranking among the top in the international arena.
V. Current Positions
As of December 2025, Chen Hui still serves as Chairman of Fujian CASTECH Inc. and concurrently serves as the Convener of the Strategic Committee of the Company's Board of Directors.
In summary, with a cross-disciplinary educational background, rich management experience, and a profound understanding of the laser science and technology industry, Chen Hui has led CASTECH from a scientific research institute-affiliated enterprise to a global leader in the field of laser crystals. His career has covered the entire chain of "technology R&D - enterprise management - strategic layout," making him one of the important drivers of China's laser science and technology industry.
(All information is based on the official public materials of Fujian CASTECH Inc. and CAS)
欧元EUR趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:尚未进⼊超买区。这通常意味着未来 2–3 周趋势仍应整体多头,直到形成⼀个周线⾼点。(牛)
日线复合:上周五进⼊超买(OB),警告日线⾼点很可能在未来 2–3 天内形成。(牛)
关键因素:任何回落都应被视为周线多头趋势中的小级别修正。
交易策略建议:在日线收盘价不跌破 11/13 的次级收盘低点的前提下,可继续采取做多策略,目标为最终上⾏⾄⼤幅⾼于2025 年 9 月⾼点的⽔平。若收盘价跌破 11/13 的收盘价,这将构成⼀次收盘重叠(closing overlap),这种情况下并不符合应继续向上突破9 月⾼点的推动式趋势特征。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!
黄金GOLD趋势与基本交易策略周线复合:周级别超买,周⾼点可能已经临近。(牛)
日线复合:短期内趋势应横盘或上涨,⾄少再持续⼀两天后日⾼点才会有机会形成。(牛)
关键因素:自10月28日低点开始的上涨看起来属于修正⾏情。12 月初出现了收盘价重叠(closing overlaps),这不符合推动浪(impulse)的特征,⽽是典型的修正⾛势。尽管目前⽆论周还是日线动能都尚未进⼊转势状态,但如果这轮上涨如预期是⼀次修正,下周应当是完成这波上涨的最晚时间窗⼝。
交易策略建议:仍然选择观望策略,直到黄⾦运⾏到⼀个可以确定完成周线低点的位置 —— ⽽这⼀情况在未来⼏周内不太可能出现。目前看来,在这轮自 10 月⾼点开始、呈现为横盘震荡区间的修正完成后,⽆论是向上还是向下,都很难获得的有价值的交易机会。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准!






















