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经济下行期的投资策略:基于伯南克大萧条理论的启示 The Great Depression Theory
本文根据前美联储主席、诺贝尔经济学奖得主伯南克巨著《大萧条》的研究分析,结合其核心经济观点。本人进行如下详细剖析(请勿转载):
①二级市场的强弱主要与以下几个因素有关:
1. 货币政策
宽松的货币政策,如降低利率、增加货币供应,会刺激投资需求,资金流入股市,推动股市上涨。
紧缩的货币政策则会抑制投资,资金流出股市,导致股市下跌。
2. 信贷市场
信贷扩张时期,企业和个人更容易获得贷款,资金进入股市推高股价。
信贷紧缩时期,贷款难度加大,资金流出股市,股价下跌。
3. 通货膨胀预期
通胀预期上升时,投资者倾向于配置实物资产如股票,推高股价。
通胀预期下降时,投资者减少股票配置,股价承压。
4. 经济增长前景
经济向好预期会提振企业盈利预期,吸引资金流入,股市上涨。
经济衰退预期则会打击企业盈利预期,资金撤离,股市下跌。
5. 市场信心
市场信心充足时,投资者风险偏好提高,资金活跃度高,股市向好。
市场信心不足时,投资者风险规避,资金活跃度低,股市低迷。
总之,宏观经济政策、信贷环境、通胀预期、经济前景、市场情绪等因素,共同影响着资金的流向,进而决定了二级市场的强弱。政策制定者需要综合平衡,避免极端,维护金融市场稳定。
②投资者应该从以下几个维度来应对经济下行期的投资:
1. 货币政策传导机制视角
伯南克强调货币政策通过信贷渠道影响实体经济
投资建议:
关注央行货币政策动向,特别是信贷投放力度
在货币宽松初期适度加仓金融、地产等高杠杆行业
警惕货币政策收紧时期的信用收缩风险
2. 债务-通缩螺旋理论
经济下行期债务违约上升导致通缩,通缩加重债务负担
投资建议:
避免高负债企业,选择现金流稳定、负债率低的公司
配置必需消费、医疗等防御性行业
关注政府债务刺激政策带来的投资机会
3. 金融加速器效应
资产价格下跌导致抵押品价值下降,进一步恶化融资环境
投资建议:
控制投资杠杆,保持充足流动性
分散投资组合,降低单一资产风险
逐步建仓,避免追涨杀跌
4. 预期管理理论
市场预期对经济走势有重要影响
投资建议:
关注政策信号和市场情绪变化
在悲观预期充分释放时逢低布局
避免跟随短期市场情绪剧烈波动
5. 系统性风险防范
金融体系的脆弱性可能放大经济冲击
投资建议:
优选具有核心竞争力的行业龙头
关注国家战略性新兴产业
配置部分黄金等避险资产
6. 长期视角
经济周期具有自我修复能力
投资建议:
保持长期投资思维,避免短期频繁操作
把握产业升级和结构转型机会
在市场底部区域分批建仓优质资产
核心要点:
1. 保持充足流动性,控制投资杠杆
2. 选择优质资产,注重风险防范
3. 把握政策和预期变化带来的机会
4. 维持长期投资思维,耐心等待市场修复
这些建议基于伯南克对大萧条的深入研究,强调了在经济下行期要特别注意防范系统性风险,同时也要把握政策和预期变化带来的投资机会。投资者需要在防守和进攻之间找到平衡,既要控制风险,也要为未来的市场反弹做好准备。
This article is based on the research and analysis of the book "The Great Depression" by former Federal Reserve Chairman and Nobel laureate in economics, Ben Bernanke, combined with his core economic views. I have conducted the following detailed analysis (please do not repost):
① The strength of the secondary market is mainly related to the following factors:
1. Monetary Policy
Loose monetary policies, such as lowering interest rates and increasing money supply, stimulate investment demand, drive funds into the stock market, and push up stock prices.
Tight monetary policies, on the other hand, suppress investment, cause funds to flow out of the stock market, and lead to stock market declines.
2. Credit Market
During periods of credit expansion, it is easier for businesses and individuals to obtain loans, and funds entering the stock market drive up stock prices.
During periods of credit tightening, loan difficulties increase, funds flow out of the stock market, and stock prices fall.
3. Inflation Expectations
When inflation expectations rise, investors tend to allocate physical assets such as stocks, pushing up stock prices.
When inflation expectations fall, investors reduce their allocation to stocks, putting pressure on stock prices.
4. Economic Growth Prospects
Expectations of a strong economy boost corporate earnings expectations, attract capital inflows, and drive up stock markets.
Expectations of an economic recession, on the other hand, dampen corporate earnings expectations, cause capital outflows, and lead to stock market declines.
5. Market Confidence
When market confidence is high, investor risk appetite increases, fund activity is high, and the stock market performs well.
When market confidence is low, investors are risk-averse, fund activity is low, and the stock market is sluggish.
In summary, macroeconomic policies, credit environment, inflation expectations, economic prospects, market sentiment, and other factors jointly influence the flow of funds, which in turn determines the strength of the secondary market. Policymakers need to balance comprehensively and avoid extremes to maintain financial market stability.
② Investors should approach investing during economic downturns from the following perspectives:
1. Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism
Bernanke emphasizes that monetary policy affects the real economy through credit channels
Investment advice:
Pay attention to central bank's monetary policy stance, especially credit supply
Moderately increase positions in high-leverage sectors like finance and real estate during early monetary easing
Be cautious of credit contraction risks when monetary policy tightens
2. Debt-Deflation Spiral Theory
Rising defaults during economic downturns lead to deflation, which exacerbates debt burdens
Investment advice:
Avoid highly indebted companies; choose firms with stable cash flows and low debt ratios
Allocate to defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare
Look for investment opportunities from government debt stimulus policies
3. Financial Accelerator Effect
Falling asset prices decrease collateral values, further worsening financing conditions
Investment advice:
Control investment leverage and maintain ample liquidity
Diversify portfolios to reduce single-asset risks
Build positions gradually to avoid chasing ups and downs
4. Expectation Management Theory
Market expectations significantly influence economic trends
Investment advice:
Monitor policy signals and changes in market sentiment
Establish positions at lows when pessimistic expectations are fully released
Avoid following short-term volatile market emotions
5. Systemic Risk Prevention
Vulnerabilities in the financial system may amplify economic shocks
Investment advice:
Prefer industry leaders with core competitiveness
Focus on national strategic emerging industries
Allocate a portion to safe-haven assets like gold
6. Long-term Perspective
Economic cycles have self-correcting abilities
Investment advice:
Maintain a long-term investment mindset; avoid frequent short-term trading
Seize opportunities from industrial upgrades and structural transformations
Build positions in quality assets in phases near market bottoms
Key points:
1. Maintain sufficient liquidity and control investment leverage
2. Select quality assets with emphasis on risk prevention
3. Seize opportunities arising from policy and expectation changes
4. Maintain a long-term investment mindset and patiently await market recovery
These recommendations, based on Bernanke's in-depth study of the Great Depression, emphasize the importance of guarding against systemic risks during economic downturns while also seizing investment opportunities brought about by policy and expectation shifts. Investors need to find a balance between defense and offense, controlling risks while preparing for future market rebounds.
AI基于缠论给出的btc 4h时间周期分析建议1. 走势类型
• 从图表中可以看到,整体处于上涨趋势,多个中枢(黄框区域)在运行过程中进行了震荡调整,并且不断向上突破。
• 重要中枢区域:
• 第一个中枢(标记为2):价格震荡后形成突破,趋势继续上行。
• 第二个中枢(标记为3):长时间横盘震荡,随后向上突破,形成新高。
• 当前价格正位于上升通道趋势线的支撑附近(图中右上方),这也是一个关键支撑位。
2. MACD指标
• MACD死叉:目前MACD出现死叉,能量柱逐渐缩短,说明短期多头力量减弱,市场可能会出现回调或震荡。
• 回调需求:由于价格连续上涨,市场存在一定回调的需求,短期风险较高。
3. 关键支撑和压力位
• 支撑位:当前价格在上升趋势线附近,如果跌破趋势线,可能会回调至前中枢区域(约100,000附近)。
• 压力位:上方的短期高点(约108,000),如果能站稳并突破,将继续向新高进发。
操作建议(仅供参考):
1. 持有多单的投资者:
• 短期注意上升趋势线支撑(约105,000附近),一旦跌破,可考虑减仓或止盈一部分。
• 如果站稳支撑位且MACD转为金叉,可以继续持有等待新一轮上涨。
2. 等待进场的投资者:
• 可在支撑区域附近(100,000-105,000区间)分批建仓,但需等待确认支撑有效。
• 若价格直接跌破重要支撑,则需耐心等待更低的位置介入。
3. 风险控制:
• 当前市场处于高位震荡,需谨防回调风险,建议设置止损,避免大幅回撤。
总结:
市场处于上涨趋势的回调阶段,短期需观察上升趋势线的支撑有效性,谨慎操作,等待趋势进一步明朗。
美元/人民币:救救我! USD/CNY: Save me!个人观点,请勿转载!
市场有双无形的手,这双手目前还在等待时机出手!
目前个人二级市场仓位保持在30%-40%(在各金融指数没有形成有效趋势,切忌不能重仓)
金融指数参考:美元指数(下跌趋势打开利好CHINA二级市场)、美元/人民币(下跌趋势打开利好CHINA二级市场)、上证指数、A50、恒生指数(DDDD)
根据古典经济学家亚当·斯密探讨了自由市场经济的理论和实践,以及如何通过劳动分工、市场竞争和自我利益来促进国家财富的增长。在面对目前经济基本面的困难,失业率上升和实体经济萧条,我们可以借鉴《国富论》中的一些思想来制定具体的应对措施。
首先,我们需要促进劳动市场的灵活性和多样性。政府可以通过简化就业法规、减少企业用工成本和提供职业培训等方式,增加劳动市场的吸引力和适应性。这样可以帮助更多的人找到工作,从而降低失业率。
其次,政府应该采取措施支持实体经济的发展。这可以通过减税、提供贷款优惠、扶持中小企业等方式来实现。同时,政府还应该鼓励创新和技术进步,提高生产效率和 产品质量 ,以提高国内外市场的竞争力。
此外,互联网和移动电话的普及已经对人们的生活方式产生了深远影响,其中包括导致民众精神的影响和社会活动的降低。政府应该积极引导互联网和移动电话的健康发展,提高人们的网络素养,避免过度依赖电子产品导致的生活方式不良变化。同时,政府也可以通过举办公共文化活动、体育赛事等方式,鼓励人们参与现实生活中的社会活动,增强社区凝聚力和身体健康。
综上所述,通过提高劳动市场的灵活性和多样性,支持实体经济的发展,以及引导互联网和移动电话的健康发展,我们可以有效应对当前经济基本面所面临的挑战,促进社会经济的持续健康发展。
以上只是个人天马行空般的假设,非传统经济学理论,不作为任何行动派参考
Personal opinion, please do not reprint!
The market has two invisible hands, and these hands are still waiting for the opportunity to act!
At present, the personal secondary market position is maintained at 30%-40% (if there is no effective trend in various financial indexes, it is best not to overweight)
Financial index reference: US dollar index (downward trend opens up the CHINA secondary market), US dollar/RMB (downward trend opens up the CHINA secondary market), Shanghai Composite Index, A50, Hang Seng Index
According to the classical economist Adam Smith, he explored the theory and practice of free market economy and how to promote the growth of national wealth through division of labor, market competition and self-interest. In the face of China's current difficulties in economic fundamentals, rising unemployment and depression in the real economy, we can draw on some ideas in "The Wealth of Nations" to formulate specific countermeasures.
First, we need to promote the flexibility and diversity of the labor market. The government can increase the attractiveness and adaptability of the labor market by simplifying employment regulations, reducing corporate labor costs and providing vocational training. This can help more people find jobs and thus reduce unemployment.
Second, the government should take measures to support the development of the real economy. This can be achieved through tax cuts, loan concessions, and support for small and medium-sized enterprises. At the same time, the government should also encourage innovation and technological progress, improve production efficiency and product quality, and enhance competitiveness in domestic and foreign markets.
In addition, the popularity of the Internet and mobile phones has had a profound impact on people's lifestyles, including the impact on people's spirit and the decline of social activities. The government should actively guide the healthy development of the Internet and mobile phones, improve people's network literacy, and avoid adverse changes in lifestyle caused by over-reliance on electronic products. At the same time, the government can also encourage people to participate in social activities in real life and enhance community cohesion and physical health by holding public cultural activities and sports events.
In summary, by improving the flexibility and diversity of the labor market, supporting the development of the real economy, and guiding the healthy development of the Internet and mobile phones, we can effectively respond to the challenges facing the current economic fundamentals and promote the sustained and healthy development of the social economy.
The above is just my wild assumptions, not traditional economic theory, and is not a reference for any activists.
望周知由于工作原因,后期降低发布个股观点频率,公开发布的个股只作为个人Mark不作荐,若有跟票者盈亏自负,望周知,感谢大家点赞支持!😊
Due to work-related reasons, the frequency of publishing individual stock opinions will be reduced in the future. Proceed with caution and cherish the journey. Publicly shared stocks are only for personal marking purposes and not recommendations. For those who choose to follow, stop-loss should be controlled within 6%, while there is no upper limit for profit-taking (for stocks hitting the daily limit, regardless of whether the limit is maintained, they can be held for up to 7 more days). Please take note.Thank you for your support!😊
AI图表分析与操作建议(IO/USDT 30分钟周期)结合缠论核心逻辑与当前图表结构(中枢、背驰、走势级别)及MACD指标,以下是具体分析和操作思路:
一、走势结构分析
1. 大趋势方向
• 整体走势处于上升趋势,形成了多个上涨中枢,价格呈现震荡上行。
• 高点:4.777
• 关键低点:1.415、2.17、2.6
• 当前价格:3.812,正处于回调后的震荡区间内。
2. 中枢形成与突破
• 第一个中枢(2.133 – 2.17 区域):横盘整理后选择向上突破。
• 第二个中枢(3.033 – 3.618 区域):价格多次回踩确认后向上突破,形成新高。
• 高点4.777回调:价格在高点出现顶背驰,随后进入下跌,当前已回调至3.6 – 3.7支撑区间。
3. 背驰现象
• 顶背驰:
• 在4.777高点,MACD柱体与快慢线未能同步创新高,动能减弱,预示价格回调。
• 底背驰:
• 当前在3.735 附近,MACD绿柱缩短,快慢线接近金叉,显示下跌动能衰竭,有可能形成底部反弹。
二、操作建议与思路
1. 短线操作(30分钟级别)
关注当前区间:
• 支撑位:3.735 – 3.6 区域
• 压力位:4.2 – 4.3 区域
操作思路:
1. 确认底部信号买入:
• 观察 3.735 附近是否出现底背驰信号:
• MACD绿柱缩短,快慢线金叉;
• K线形成止跌信号(如阳包阴、锤子线等)。
• 分批买入,止损设在3.6 下方。
2. 反弹目标与卖出:
• 若反弹至4.2 – 4.3 区域,关注MACD动能:
• 若动能未放量,存在二次回调风险,可减仓获利。
• 上方强压力位:4.5 和 4.777,突破前需谨慎。
2. 中线操作(趋势跟随)
1. 布局关键支撑区域:
• 在3.6 – 3.7 区域观察结构确认支撑有效,可以分批加仓,目标为挑战前高。
2. 目标与风险:
• 第一目标:4.2 – 4.3 区域
• 第二目标:突破后挑战4.5 和 4.777 高点
• 若跌破3.6 支撑位,需止损离场,等待更低位置重新布局。
三、风险控制
1. 仓位管理:
• 分批操作,避免一次性重仓进场。
• 将资金分为短线仓位和中线仓位,灵活调整操作。
2. 止损设置:
• 短线止损:3.6 下方
• 中线止损:若跌破重要趋势线或低点(如3.6),需果断止损。
3. MACD信号确认:
• 重点关注MACD绿柱缩短、金叉信号,以及价格走势形成的底背驰确认,作为买入依据。
四、总结
1. 短线策略:
• 在 3.735 – 3.6 区域 寻找底背驰买点,反弹目标看至 4.2 – 4.3 区域,遇阻减仓。
2. 中线布局:
• 支撑有效时加仓,中线目标挑战前高 4.5 和 4.777。
3. 风险管理:
• 严格执行止损,确保仓位控制在合理范围,减少回调带来的风险。
买在哀鸿遍野,卖在人声鼎沸!认知层面的投资第一堂课买在哀鸿遍野,卖在人声鼎沸,炮火中挺进,烟花中撤退,大家恐惧我贪婪,大家贪婪我恐惧。喜绿爱跌、愁红恨涨、追跌杀涨、买阴卖阳,这些都是认知层面的投资第一堂课
上证综合指数(沪指)在不同时间周期下的**供需关系**,结合供需区间和K线走势可以进行分析。以下是详细解读:
1. **供需关系基础理解**
- **绿色区域**代表**需求区**(支撑区域):价格在这些区域附近有较强的买入意愿,通常会反弹。
- **红色区域**代表**供给区**(压力区域):价格接近这些区域时,会遇到较强的卖出压力,可能回落。
- 通过这些区域可以判断价格反转的潜在区域,并结合K线形态验证供需力量的平衡或失衡。
2. **各周期供需分析**
**5分钟图(左上角)**
- 价格下跌后反弹,目前接近短期供给区(红色区域)。
- 说明短期卖压较强,如果价格未能突破供给区,则可能回落。
**15分钟图(上中)**
- 同样显示一个较强的供给区,价格接近此区域后遇阻下跌。
- 需求区(绿色区域)在更低的位置起到支撑作用。
**1小时图(上右中)**
- 价格在供给区附近回落,体现出卖方力量主导。
- 下方需求区有支撑,短期内可能震荡。
**2小时图(右上)**
- 价格接近长期供给区后再次回落,显示出更强的卖压。
- 下方需求区分布较大,价格支撑的力度更强。
**4小时图(左下角)**
- 价格在供需平衡中波动,短期内需求区提供支撑,反弹动能较弱。
**日线图(中下)**
- 日线显示出价格正在触及供需平衡点。
- 如果需求区支撑有效,价格有望在此区域反弹。
**周线图(下右中)**
- 价格反弹遇到供给区,显示出较强的卖压。
- 下方需求区支撑仍然有效,长期走势需要关注多空力量平衡。
**月线图(右下角)**
- 大级别月线图显示长期供给区压力较大。
- 下方需求区则表现为关键支撑区域,说明中长期需要积累动能突破压力区。
3. **总结与建议**
- **短期策略**:价格在5分钟和15分钟图供给区遇阻,短线回调概率较高,需关注需求区的支撑情况。
- **中期策略**:1小时到4小时图供需平衡区显示多空力量相对均衡,可等待突破方向。
- **长期策略**:日线、周线及月线级别显示长期供给区压力较强,投资者需关注需求区的反弹力度以及未来量能配合情况。
Buy in the midst of widespread grief, sell in the midst of a clamor of people, advance in the midst of gunfire, retreat in the midst of fireworks, everyone is afraid but I am greedy, everyone is greedy but I am afraid. I like green and love falling, I hate red and hate rising, I chase falling and kill rising, I buy Yin and sell Yang, these are the first lessons of investment at the cognitive level
This technical analysis chart shows the **supply and demand relationship** of the **Shanghai Composite Index** (Shanghai Stock Index) in different time periods, which can be analyzed by combining the supply and demand range and the K-line trend. The following is a detailed interpretation:
1. **Basic understanding of supply and demand relationship**
- **Green areas** represent **demand areas** (support areas): Prices have a strong willingness to buy near these areas and usually rebound.
- **Red areas** represent **supply areas** (pressure areas): When prices approach these areas, they will encounter strong selling pressure and may fall back.
- Through these areas, the potential areas for price reversal can be judged, and the balance or imbalance of supply and demand forces can be verified by combining the K-line pattern.
2. **Supply and demand analysis of each cycle**
**5-minute chart (upper left corner)**
- After the price fell, it rebounded and is currently close to the short-term supply area (red area).
- It shows that the short-term selling pressure is strong. If the price fails to break through the supply area, it may fall back.
**15-minute chart (upper middle)**
- It also shows a strong supply area. The price encounters resistance and falls after approaching this area.
- The demand area (green area) plays a supporting role at a lower position.
**1-hour chart (upper right middle)**
- The price fell back near the supply area, reflecting the dominant force of sellers.
- There is support in the demand area below, and it may fluctuate in the short term.
**2-hour chart (upper right)**
- After the price approaches the long-term supply area, it fell again, showing stronger selling pressure.
- The demand area below is larger, and the price support is stronger.
**4-hour chart (lower left corner)**
- The price fluctuates in the balance of supply and demand. The demand area provides support in the short term, and the rebound momentum is weak.
**Daily chart (lower middle)**
- The daily chart shows that the price is reaching the balance point of supply and demand.
- If the demand zone support is effective, the price is expected to rebound in this area.
**Weekly chart (lower right middle)**
- The price rebound encounters the supply zone, showing strong selling pressure.
- The support of the lower demand zone is still effective, and the long-term trend needs to pay attention to the balance of long and short forces.
**Monthly chart (lower right corner)**
- The large-scale monthly chart shows that the long-term supply zone has greater pressure.
- The lower demand zone is a key support area, indicating that it is necessary to accumulate momentum to break through the pressure zone in the medium and long term.
3. **Summary and suggestions**
- **Short-term strategy**: The price encounters resistance in the supply zone of the 5-minute and 15-minute charts, and the probability of short-term correction is high. It is necessary to pay attention to the support of the demand zone.
- **Medium-term strategy**: The supply and demand balance zone of the 1-hour to 4-hour chart shows that the long and short forces are relatively balanced, and the breakthrough direction can be waited for.
- **Long-term strategy**: Daily, weekly and monthly levels show that the long-term supply zone has strong pressure. Investors need to pay attention to the rebound strength of the demand zone and the future volume coordination.
Through the above analysis of **supply and demand relationship**, the potential price trend can be comprehensively judged by combining trading volume, K-line pattern and market momentum. For traders, the supply and demand area is an important support and pressure point, which helps to optimize entry and exit strategies.
通过以上**供需关系**的分析,可以结合成交量、K线形态和市场动能综合判断价格的潜在走势。对于交易者来说,供需区域是重要的支撑和压力点,有助于优化入场和出场策略。
12月16日量化题材以及个股 Quantitative themes and individual stocks量化结果,总结如下:
1. 从题材热度来看,新能源车、军工、光伏等题材热度较高,分别为 88.9%、83.3% 和 77.8%。这些行业可能受到政策支持或市场看好,吸引了较多资金流入。
2. 半导体、医药生物的热度适中,分别为 66.7% 和 55.6%。这两个行业是长期看好的方向,虽然热度不及前几个,但仍有过半数个股呈现活跃态势。
3. 白酒、消费电子的热度相对较低,只有 33.3%。可能是这两个行业近期缺乏明显的利好刺激,市场参与度不高。
4. 从涨幅来看,涨幅最大的是光伏,有 11.1% 的个股涨幅超过 7%。其次是新能源车,有 22.2% 的个股涨幅在 5-7% 之间。
5. 半导体、军工虽然整体热度高,但涨幅并不突出,主要集中在 3-5% 区间。医药生物涨幅也较为平淡。
6. 白酒和消费电子虽然热度低,但并非都是下跌的。白酒有 1/3 的个股涨幅在 1-3%,消费电子涨跌参半,各有 1/3。
总的来看,新能源车、光伏是当前最活跃的题材,半导体、军工、医药生物紧随其后,白酒和消费电子则相对低迷。不过仍需关注个股表现,同一题材内部也会有差异。图表只能作为参考,投资还需结合基本面等其他因素综合判断。
The quantitative results are summarized as follows:
1. In terms of the popularity of themes, new energy vehicles, military industry, photovoltaics and other themes are relatively popular, at 88.9%, 83.3% and 77.8% respectively. These industries may be supported by policies or optimistic about the market, attracting more capital inflows.
2. The popularity of semiconductors and pharmaceutical biology is moderate, at 66.7% and 55.6% respectively. These two industries are long-term optimistic directions. Although the popularity is not as high as the previous ones, more than half of the stocks are still active.
3. The popularity of liquor and consumer electronics is relatively low, only 33.3%. It may be that these two industries lack obvious positive stimuli recently, and the market participation is not high.
4. In terms of the increase, photovoltaics have the largest increase, with 11.1% of stocks increasing by more than 7%. The second is new energy vehicles, with 22.2% of stocks increasing by 5-7%.
5. Although semiconductors and military industry are hot overall, the increase is not outstanding, mainly concentrated in the 3-5% range. The increase in pharmaceuticals and biology is also relatively flat.
6. Although liquor and consumer electronics are not hot, not all of them are falling. One-third of liquor stocks rose by 1-3%, and consumer electronics stocks rose and fell, with 1/3 each.
In general, new energy vehicles and photovoltaics are the most active themes at present, followed by semiconductors, military industry, and pharmaceuticals and biology, while liquor and consumer electronics are relatively sluggish. However, it is still necessary to pay attention to the performance of individual stocks, and there will be differences within the same theme. The chart can only be used as a reference, and investment needs to be combined with other factors such as fundamentals for comprehensive judgment.