8月27日黄金分析☘️基本面分析
周二,美元 (USD) 温和回升,黄金价格在负值区域内交易。不过,美联储 (Fed) 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 在杰克逊霍尔发出的央行将开始降息的信号可能会支撑贵金属。较低的利率通常对黄金有利,因为它们降低了持有无息资产的机会成本。此外,中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧可能会进一步提振传统避险资产黄金。
中国人民银行 (PBOC) 在 7 月份停止购买黄金,这是其储备连续第三个月没有购买黄金。交易员将关注 8 月份的数据以寻找新的动力。由于中国是世界上最大的黄金生产国和消费国,对中国经济放缓和贵金属需求的担忧可能会拖累金价。 8 月消费者信心指数和价格指数
☘️技术分析:
黄金在 2516 阻力区附近交易,并朝着今天最重要的 2525 附近进发。当欧洲时段结束时价格收于 2516 上方时,黄金将朝着 2525 进发,并在美国时段开始时创下新高。如果黄金在欧洲时段开始时跌破 2509 区域,价格将很快被推至 2502,这是在找到今天的买入区域 2495 附近的一个值得注意的水平。
SELL zone 2525 - 25277 stoploss 2530
SELL price zone 2545 - 2547 stoploss 2551
BUY price zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490
BUY price zone 2486- 2484 stoploss 2480
Goldprediction
Gold sold in 1933-1938
The market continued to be in a unilateral decline mode this week. Today gold once again came to the 1928 first-line position. I personally think that the initial jobless claims data later will be even more bearish. So today is the best time to sell gold.
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Gold sells high and buys low
The market is currently struggling with two stocks of news. The long and short sides are in a fierce game. Mainly based on bulls' risk aversion. Bullish on gold. The bears are using the Fed's rate hike as a medium. Bearish on the market. The current price of gold is around 1960. The short-term remained at the 1966-1954 first-line shock. Although there is no big trading opportunity, but when there is a high point or a low point in the band. It is still possible to complete the transaction through accurate trading signals. thus making money.
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Gold: Latest Trading Strategies
Fundamentals of Gold:
In early Asian trading on Monday, March 13th, spot gold maintained its strong upward trend, with the price hovering around $1881 per ounce, up nearly $15 on the day. Earlier, the price of gold had risen more than $20, as the Fed's "rescue" action sparked an increase in market risk appetite, which dealt a major blow to the dollar and stimulated a surge in gold prices. After Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, the Fed announced a new emergency loan program on Sunday to strengthen the banking system's capacity, which will help ensure that banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors and prevent other banks from experiencing similar runs.
Currently, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has plummeted from 75% to less than 10%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike in May has been wiped out. There are increasing calls in the market for the Fed to consider pausing or even cutting interest rates. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury's emergency measures to support banks have been well-received by the market, improving risk appetite and dealing a blow to the dollar. Market anxiety is also running high ahead of this week's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, especially after Fed Chairman Powell recently emphasized that the pace of tightening will be based on "overall data".
Technical Analysis of Gold:
After the release of the non-farm payroll report last Friday night, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March cooled somewhat, and the U.S. dollar index continued to dive, nearly breaking through the 104 level. Driven by the risk aversion sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the non-farm payroll report, spot gold broke through three key levels of $1850, $1860, and $1870, before giving back some gains to close up 1.97% at $1867.03 per ounce, marking a new closing high since February 10th and achieving two consecutive weeks of gains. The highest point of gold was around 1869, with the closing price settling around 1867 in the following period.
On the 4-hour chart, a bottom-up rebound wave broke through the secondary high of 1858 to form a reversal, while the double bottom rebound of 1805 and 1810 formed a 4-hour double bottom rebound, with the neckline of 1858 forming a breakthrough. The top-bottom reversal this week has changed from resistance to support at 1858, which is the reversal point of the neckline and also the support of the bulls. The 4-hour chart also shows a bottom-up rebound, which is also an upward wave, with a wave of 1810 forming a surge in volume, and after a retracement, it is gathering strength again.
In the beginning of the week, pay attention to the second rebound support point. In the short term, there may be some back and forth, as this is the first upward reversal and the moving average indicator has not yet turned upward, so short-term consolidation is needed. On the 1-hour chart, gold is oscillating upwards based on the middle rail. Last Friday, it broke through 1858 and retraced to 1854 before stabilizing, which is also the strong and weak critical point of this week, and strength will not break below 1854. In the Asian session, there is a gap in prices, so it is not urgent to chase the high, wait for the gap to be filled before participating in a low long position.
Trading Strategy:
Short around $1885, take profit at $1870-1865;
Long around $1865, take profit at $1880-1890
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