9月11日黄金分析基本面分析
欧洲时段早段持续稳定上涨,并将大宗商品推至新的周高点,买家现在希望在 2,525-2,526 美元供应区域之外建立上行势头。美元(USD)正在努力利用过去三天的涨幅,并在美联储(Fed)的鸽派预期下从月度高点回落。反过来,这被视为推动资金流向无收益黄色金属的关键因素。
与此同时,风险偏好情绪普遍疲弱,引发了一些避险资金流入,并推动金价接近过去一小时的历史高点。然而,多头可能不会为任何进一步的上行走势做准备,而是宁愿在最新的美国消费者通胀数据发布之前暂停。美国关键的CPI报告将在调查市场对美联储9月降息规模的预期并确定贵金属下一步的方向性走势方面发挥关键作用。
技术分析
今天早些时候,金价在欧洲交易中上涨至 2529 点,有望突破历史高点。当前欧洲交易中关键区域2529附近可能会将价格推回到2540。顶部将推向心理港口区域,即斐波那契水平2555。相反,如果2029年未能突破,价格可能很快会推向2517 CPI 数据之前的区域以及美国时段。消息公布后重看2495支撑位和2555阻力位。因为如果消息推高的话,直到2540和2555区域才会有好的入场机会。
上方阻力:2535 - 2540 - 2550-2555…
支持:2512 - 2506 - 2499 - 2493 - 2485
卖出 2537 - 2529 止损 2442
卖出 2554 - 2556 止损 2559
买入 2508 - 2506 止损 2503
买入 2496 - 2494。止损 2491
Goldprediction
9月10日黄金价格分析基本面分析
黄金价格难以利用昨日从 2,485 美元支撑区反弹的机会,并在周二吸引了一些抛售。然而,由于交易员似乎不愿在本周美国通胀数据公布前进行方向性押注,该商品在欧洲交易时段早盘维持在 2,500 美元的心理关口上方。关键的美国消费者价格指数 (CPI) 定于周三公布,随后周四将公布生产者价格指数 (PPI)。这些数据将影响市场对美联储本月晚些时候降息规模的预期,并为无收益的黄金提供新的方向性动力。
在关键数据风险面前,美元 (USD) 接近上周创下的月度高点,因市场看跌押注美联储 9 月份将进一步降息。再加上全球股市的强劲表现,避险黄金有望受到打压。尽管下跌,XAU/USD 仍限制在过去三周左右维持的熟悉区间内,表明交易员对短期走势犹豫不决。这使得等待大幅抛售之后再定位近期从上周五美国就业报告公布后测试的历史高点附近回调的做法更为谨慎。
技术分析
黄金仍在接近关键的 2507 价格区域。欧洲时段正试图突破这一水平以恢复上升趋势。该区域的卖出信号可能是当价格在欧洲时段中段上涨且无法突破时,我们卖出并持有到美国时段。如果 2495 区域被突破,我们将在 2483 区域持有到美国时段。如果黄金上涨至 2507,我们不买入,等待在 2515-2517 区域卖出。目的地是 2507-2505 区域。
卖出 2516 - 2518。止损 2522
买入 2485 - 2483。止损 2479
买入 2473 - 2471。止损 2467
9.2 Analysis of short-term gold operationsGold is long near 2490.
In the 4-hour period, there is a pressure level of 2530 on the top and a first-line support of 2492 on the bottom (it cannot fall after being touched multiple times). It is not a unilateral trend at present, so it still takes a long time to fall back. The middle track of the Bollinger Bands runs horizontally, and the price of gold is supported by the lower track of the Bollinger Bands. You can go long if it is close to 2492.
There is non-agricultural data this week. Gold will definitely break this week. The shock pattern between 2492-2530 will not last long. If you grasp the signal well, the big market is about to emerge.
Trading strategy: Gold is long near 2492, stop loss is 2482, target is 2510
What kind of analysis and suggestions do you have on the trend of gold? Everyone is welcome to like and comment.
8月30日黄金价格分析基本面分析
乐观的美国增长报告和初请失业金人数推低了美联储 (Fed) 9 月份进一步降息的预期,导致金价承压,但并未产生任何收益。然而,中东地缘政治紧张局势升级以及俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的战争可能会提振避险需求,从而有利于黄金。
投资者将密切关注美国通胀数据,以了解有关美联储潜在降息规模的更多细节。美联储青睐的通胀指标核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数预计 7 月份同比增长 2.7%,而 6 月份 PCE 指数弱于预期。可能促使美联储开始降息周期,从而提振 XAU/美元。
技术分析
欧洲时段金价在创下历史新高之前被推高。如果2525阻力位在美国时段开始前被突破,我们将在2450附近出现新的ATH。如果金价跌破2525并且美国介入,可能会推动金价进一步突破目前的支撑位2503-2494,这是未来的障碍金价周五的波动结束后将走向 2485。
电阻:2530 - 2535 - 2543 - 2550 - 2558 - 2568
支持:2513 - 2505 - 2500 - 2494 - 2485 - 2472
卖出区域 2541 - 2543 止损 2547
卖出区域 2548 - 2550 止损 2554
买入区域 2509 - 2507 止损 2503
买入区域2485-2483 止损2480
8月27日黄金分析☘️基本面分析
周二,美元 (USD) 温和回升,黄金价格在负值区域内交易。不过,美联储 (Fed) 主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 (Jerome Powell) 在杰克逊霍尔发出的央行将开始降息的信号可能会支撑贵金属。较低的利率通常对黄金有利,因为它们降低了持有无息资产的机会成本。此外,中东地缘政治紧张局势加剧可能会进一步提振传统避险资产黄金。
中国人民银行 (PBOC) 在 7 月份停止购买黄金,这是其储备连续第三个月没有购买黄金。交易员将关注 8 月份的数据以寻找新的动力。由于中国是世界上最大的黄金生产国和消费国,对中国经济放缓和贵金属需求的担忧可能会拖累金价。 8 月消费者信心指数和价格指数
☘️技术分析:
黄金在 2516 阻力区附近交易,并朝着今天最重要的 2525 附近进发。当欧洲时段结束时价格收于 2516 上方时,黄金将朝着 2525 进发,并在美国时段开始时创下新高。如果黄金在欧洲时段开始时跌破 2509 区域,价格将很快被推至 2502,这是在找到今天的买入区域 2495 附近的一个值得注意的水平。
SELL zone 2525 - 25277 stoploss 2530
SELL price zone 2545 - 2547 stoploss 2551
BUY price zone 2496 - 2494 stoploss 2490
BUY price zone 2486- 2484 stoploss 2480
Gold sold in 1933-1938
The market continued to be in a unilateral decline mode this week. Today gold once again came to the 1928 first-line position. I personally think that the initial jobless claims data later will be even more bearish. So today is the best time to sell gold.
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Gold sells high and buys low
The market is currently struggling with two stocks of news. The long and short sides are in a fierce game. Mainly based on bulls' risk aversion. Bullish on gold. The bears are using the Fed's rate hike as a medium. Bearish on the market. The current price of gold is around 1960. The short-term remained at the 1966-1954 first-line shock. Although there is no big trading opportunity, but when there is a high point or a low point in the band. It is still possible to complete the transaction through accurate trading signals. thus making money.
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Gold: Latest Trading Strategies
Fundamentals of Gold:
In early Asian trading on Monday, March 13th, spot gold maintained its strong upward trend, with the price hovering around $1881 per ounce, up nearly $15 on the day. Earlier, the price of gold had risen more than $20, as the Fed's "rescue" action sparked an increase in market risk appetite, which dealt a major blow to the dollar and stimulated a surge in gold prices. After Silicon Valley Bank's bankruptcy, the Fed announced a new emergency loan program on Sunday to strengthen the banking system's capacity, which will help ensure that banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors and prevent other banks from experiencing similar runs.
Currently, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March has plummeted from 75% to less than 10%, and the probability of a 50 basis point hike in May has been wiped out. There are increasing calls in the market for the Fed to consider pausing or even cutting interest rates. The Fed and the U.S. Treasury's emergency measures to support banks have been well-received by the market, improving risk appetite and dealing a blow to the dollar. Market anxiety is also running high ahead of this week's U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, especially after Fed Chairman Powell recently emphasized that the pace of tightening will be based on "overall data".
Technical Analysis of Gold:
After the release of the non-farm payroll report last Friday night, the market's expectations for a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed in March cooled somewhat, and the U.S. dollar index continued to dive, nearly breaking through the 104 level. Driven by the risk aversion sparked by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and the non-farm payroll report, spot gold broke through three key levels of $1850, $1860, and $1870, before giving back some gains to close up 1.97% at $1867.03 per ounce, marking a new closing high since February 10th and achieving two consecutive weeks of gains. The highest point of gold was around 1869, with the closing price settling around 1867 in the following period.
On the 4-hour chart, a bottom-up rebound wave broke through the secondary high of 1858 to form a reversal, while the double bottom rebound of 1805 and 1810 formed a 4-hour double bottom rebound, with the neckline of 1858 forming a breakthrough. The top-bottom reversal this week has changed from resistance to support at 1858, which is the reversal point of the neckline and also the support of the bulls. The 4-hour chart also shows a bottom-up rebound, which is also an upward wave, with a wave of 1810 forming a surge in volume, and after a retracement, it is gathering strength again.
In the beginning of the week, pay attention to the second rebound support point. In the short term, there may be some back and forth, as this is the first upward reversal and the moving average indicator has not yet turned upward, so short-term consolidation is needed. On the 1-hour chart, gold is oscillating upwards based on the middle rail. Last Friday, it broke through 1858 and retraced to 1854 before stabilizing, which is also the strong and weak critical point of this week, and strength will not break below 1854. In the Asian session, there is a gap in prices, so it is not urgent to chase the high, wait for the gap to be filled before participating in a low long position.
Trading Strategy:
Short around $1885, take profit at $1870-1865;
Long around $1865, take profit at $1880-1890
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