Crude oil - Sell around 64.30, target 62.00-60.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil is clearly weak. I believe we can sell immediately. There's no need to wait for a major rebound or significant resistance levels. We can sell directly from a small intraday level. Crude oil will continue to fall. The 4-hour chart shows it has already broken through, so there's still room for further decline. Today, we're focusing on selling at 64.30.
Fundamental Analysis:
Yesterday's CPI data was mixed, generally suppressing the US dollar and supporting gold. However, gold's reaction was minimal, and it remains in a period of volatile correction.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 64.30, target 62.00-60.00
原油
Crude oil - Sell around 65.00, target 63.00-61.00Crude Oil Market Analysis:
Crude oil has recently begun to decline, and selling is still evident. There is still room for selling below this level. Today's strategy is to continue selling on rebounds. If the daily line breaks 63.00, it will continue to decline. If it rebounds, consider selling around 65.00. Without major fundamental support, crude oil will struggle to recover on the daily chart.
Fundamental Analysis:
Today, focus on the most important data point this week, the CPI. This economic data has recently seen significant movement, even surpassing the non-farm payroll data.
Trading Recommendations:
Crude oil - Sell around 65.00, target 63.00-61.00
中东紧张局势会否引发全球石油危机?在有关以色列可能对伊朗核设施发动军事行动的报道背景下,全球石油市场正面临剧烈动荡。油价因这一迫在眉睫的威胁已显著上涨,反映出市场的高度不安。人们最担心的是伊朗石油生产可能遭受严重中断,而伊朗作为全球能源供应链中的关键国家,其影响不容忽视。若冲突升级,伊朗可能采取报复行动,例如封锁霍尔木兹海峡——全球最重要的海上石油运输通道。此举可能引发严重的供应危机,重现中东历史危机中的油价暴涨局面。
伊朗当前日产原油约320万桶,其战略重要性远超产量本身。伊朗石油主要出口至中国,构成其经济命脉,一旦中断将产生深远影响。全面冲突可能导致一连串经济后果:油价急剧上涨将加剧全球通胀,甚至可能引发多国经济衰退。尽管全球尚有部分备用产能,但若冲突持续或霍尔木兹海峡被封锁,这些产能难以弥补缺口。依赖石油进口的发展中国家将面临巨大经济压力,而沙特、美国、俄罗斯等主要产油国可能从中获益。
除经济影响外,冲突还将破坏中东地缘政治稳定,阻碍外交努力,并加剧地区紧张局势。从战略角度看,国际社会将更加关注关键海运通道的安全,凸显全球能源供应链的脆弱性。从宏观经济角度看,各国央行将面临控制通胀与维持经济增长的两难境地,可能推动黄金等避险资产价格上涨。当前局势表明,全球能源市场极为脆弱,中东动荡若进一步恶化,可能迅速引发全球性深远影响。






















