黄金GOLD趋势与基本交易策略周线复合：周线从超卖反转，暗示周⾼点已经完成，价会出现 横盘或下⾏ 3–4 周，直到形成周线低点。（熊）
日线复合：超波反转，日线低点已接近或已完成，但任何反弹都应被视为 周线熊市中的 3–4 天左右修正。（牛）
关键因素：黄⾦和白银目前都处于完成周线甚⾄月线⾼点的位置。
交易策略建议：若只要周线动能趋势仍为熊且未进⼊超卖（OS）区，保持做空为主。
⚠ 短期交易者应以TradingBox信号系统为准！
X-indicator
比特币 CME 出现 1% 缺口，技术分析比特币 CME 出现 1% 缺口，技术分析
今早，比特币 CME 期货图表上出现了约 1% 的价格缺口。
由于该缺口是在大幅下跌之后形成的，短期内需要关注**回补缺口（Gap Fill）以及**再次测试近期低点（Retest of Lows）的可能性。
Coinbase 溢价（Coinbase Premium）仍处于负值区间，但相比昨日略有回升，显示出美国现货市场的卖压有所减轻。
此外，未平仓合约（Open Interest）有所增加，数据显示**空头头寸**正在上升。
这表明在近期下跌过程中卖压不断累积，可能导致在缺口完全回补之前，市场出现 短期波动性加剧与盘整阶段。
总结：
CME 缺口范围：约 1%
市场结构：短期下跌后进入盘整阶段
Coinbase 溢价：仍为负值，但略有改善
未平仓合约：增加（空头头寸流入）
📍短期内，关键在于观察价格是否进入**缺口回补区间**并**再次测试近期低点**，同时维持在 98K 附近的支撑位，这一水平在短期内仍然至关重要。
11.5 以太坊价格今日行情：以太坊通道下轨支撑，3150附近同步布局多单，开启新一轮上升趋势（以太坊合约交易）以太坊下跌通道下轨3057，第4浪下跌结构完整。
目前看第5浪上涨，目标看前高。
开单建议：3150附近做多，止损3000。
11.5 比特币走势分析：比特币五四浪调整完成！98,000支撑布局五浪上涨，10万附近布局多单，目标前高（比特币合约交易）军长11.5 比特币价格今日行情：当前价格已触及98,000附近关键支撑区域，该位置被判定为中长期波浪结构中的重要转折点。从10月中旬开始的五四浪调整结构已接近完成，最后阶段的c浪下跌目标位基本达成。随着关键支撑区间的测试完成，预计将启动五五浪上涨行情，这轮上升趋势有望突破前高。
以太坊同样到达通道下轨的3000美元支撑区域，该位置与比特币形成共振支撑。经过长期震荡整理后，价格在关键支撑位附近显示出企稳迹象。以太坊将跟随比特币开启新一轮上涨行情，上涨目标指向前期高点位置。
开单建议方面，当前101000附近开始分批布局多单，比特币止损设置在97,000下方。以太坊同步布局多单，止损3000。建议采用分批建仓策略，合理控制仓位风险，把握五浪上涨行情的中长期机会。
金汇得手：黄金日线收阴 今日主空辅多操作 美元指数昨天探底回升收长下影阳线，今天关注99.8-100.4区间。
黄金昨天日内震荡洗盘，晚间下破跌至3928附近，日线收阴。正常走势今天还有低点，所以反弹空为主。日线阻力3982附近，触及可以做空。凌晨反弹高点在3975附近，应该会在3975下方运行。小时线阻力在3956附近，也是日内多空分水，触及先空。如果行情走弱，估计3944都到不了，下方先看昨晚低点3928一线。一旦有效下破3915未必挡住，估计还会去3905甚至前低3886附近，不破可以多。有效小破3866再看20美金，接近上个月低点可以再多。
操作建议：接近3856-73空，走弱的话3944先跌，下方接近3900或3886多。昨天早间给到3977多，欧美盘3985多，3999走。
原油昨天61受阻回落跌至60附近，日线收长下影阴线，还是偏震荡。今天接近昨天高点不破空，接近59.6不破小止损多。分析仅供参考，实盘为准。
亚马逊连续跳空上扬 AI 热潮推动股价重估亚马逊（Amazon）近日出现了大型股中罕见的走势——连续两次明显的向上跳空缺口。这显示市场正在快速重新评估亚马逊在 AI 生态系统中的角色，一系列利好消息正在点燃新的上涨动能。
AI 催化剂引发股价重估
首个缺口出现在上周五，亚马逊公布第三季度财报后，重新点燃了市场对其长期成长故事的信心。公司云计算业务 AWS（Amazon Web Services）营收同比增长 20%，表现超出预期。管理层的积极表态、利润率的改善以及零售业务的稳健表现，缓解了市场对亚马逊在 AI 竞赛中落后的担忧。
CEO Andy Jassy 表示，AWS 的增长“达到了自 2022 年以来未曾见过的速度”，显示出公司最具盈利能力的部门正重新加速。
随后第二个催化剂登场。周一，当 OpenAI 宣布与 AWS 达成 380 亿美元的合作协议后，亚马逊股价再次跳空高开。这笔重大交易使 ChatGPT 的开发商与亚马逊的云端基础设施联系更加紧密。根据协议，OpenAI 将在未来七年内使用 AWS 的计算资源，包括 Nvidia 芯片。除可观的潜在收入外，此举也强化了 AWS 在全球 AI 发展核心中的地位，并降低了 OpenAI 对微软 Azure 的依赖。对亚马逊而言，这无疑是对其近期 AI 投资的有力验证，也标志着其云计算业务正重获竞争动能。
高动能突破需要纪律操作
从技术面来看，亚马逊周线图显示股价突破新高并伴随成交量放大。日线图则清晰反映出市场情绪的迅速转变，两次连续的跳空几乎形成指数型的上升轨迹。这类缺口往往象征市场在快速重定价时的“足迹”，投资者急于调整仓位以反映新信息的强度。对亚马逊而言，财报与 OpenAI 合作的双重催化几乎重置了市场对未来增长的预期。
然而，如此爆发性的走势同样要求交易者保持纪律。双缺口既可能代表动能延续，也可能是短线超涨信号。短线交易者将密切关注股价能否稳在突破区上方整固；若能在高位盘整，则有机会构筑新一波上升基础。但若买盘热度减弱、下方缺口开始回补，则可能意味着行情已提前透支。
目前整体趋势依然明显偏多，受益于基本面改善与投资需求的上升。关键问题已不在于亚马逊的故事是否改变，而在于股价能否在这波情绪性重估后稳住。两次快速跳空上扬意味着市场已全面意识到亚马逊在 AI 领域的潜力。
AMZN 周线图
过往表现并非未来结果的可靠指标
AMZN 日线图
过往表现并非未来结果的可靠指标
免责声明 ：本文仅供信息与学习用途，不构成投资建议，也未考虑任何投资者的个人财务状况或投资目标。任何与过往绩效相关的资料均非未来表现的可靠指标。
差价合约（CFD）及点差投注属高杠杆投资产品，风险极高，可能导致资金迅速亏损。**85.24% 的零售投资账户在进行 CFD 与点差交易时出现亏损。**请确保您了解这些产品的运作方式，并谨慎评估自身是否能承担高风险损失。
ETHUSDT｜4H 节奏管理：11/5–6 减仓锁利；3500–3700 等信号再空一句话总结：
自 10/27 高点后，ETH 已完成约 -28% 的第一段下跌，建议 11/5–6 分批锁利，待 3500–3700 区间出现明确空头再启动信号后，再执行第二段。
——————————————
Why（逻辑）
10/26–11/03：ETH 在 4400 阻力区反复钝化后转弱；
11/02 起：美元再启动 + Crypto 广度同步转弱；
当前价 3.2k 附近，已接近前期供给区下沿，短线追空风险上升。
——————————————
Plan（执行）
11/5–6：减仓 30–50%，锁定第一段收益，保留部分底仓。
二次入场观察区：3500–3700；
条件满足再空（满足 3/5 即可）：
1️⃣ H1/H4 出现两根反包；
2️⃣ M15/M5 出现 v6/v7 下拐；
3️⃣ Crypto10 广度下降；
4️⃣ OI/资金费率转正→再转负；
5️⃣ DXY/美债同步上拐。
——————————————
Invalidate（失效）
H4 收盘 > 3920：减半仓观望；
D1 收盘 > 4050：脚本暂停；
D1 收盘 > 4400：空头计划终止。
“Gold Macro Trend 2018–2025 ”Hey everyone! Let’s fix the MA labels first—my bad earlier! It’s: white = 6-month MA, green = 1-year MA, yellow = 18-month MA, red = 2-year MA. Now let’s dive back into this gold daily chart, tying it to 2025’s global macro economy. Why’s this rally so enduring? Why do slopes swing from mellow to steep? Macro economics is the real hidden driver!
1. Trend Structure: A Step-by-Step Bull Market Fueled by Macro
Gold’s 2018-2025 move is a three-stage ride: macro logic kicks in → technicals confirm → money floods in. Every upswing locks into key macro beats:
1. Bottoming Phase (2018-Mid 2022): Strategic Buying Amid Macro Jitters
The world was all over the place back then: U.S. trade protectionism heated up, China-U.S. tensions rose, and after the Fed’s aggressive 2018 rate hikes, markets started betting on looser policy. Global cash scrambled for safe havens.On the chart: Prices bounced around lows, while the 6-month (white), 1-year (green), 18-month (yellow), and 2-year (red) MAs shifted from scattered to converging upward. That’s sovereign funds and central banks quietly piling in. WGC data shows central banks bought gold nonstop—they were hedging against shaky dollar credibility and rising geopolitical risks, laying the groundwork for the bull run.
2. Rally Kickoff (Mid 2022-2024): Macro Meets Technical Breakthrough
From 2022 onward, macro drivers went full throttle: the Russia-Ukraine war sparked safe-haven buys, the Fed’s brutal rate hikes (to fight inflation) shifted to rate-cut hints in 2023, and de-dollarization picked up steam (dollar’s share in global reserves kept falling).Technicals followed suit: Prices broke out of a long consolidation, rallying steadily along the 6-month (white) and 1-year (green) MAs with a gradually steeper slope. That’s institutional money pouring in. Macro-wise, gold had three winning cards—inflation hedge, safe haven, de-dollarization. Technically, MAs formed a bullish alignment, and every pullback to the 1-year (green) MA was a buying chance. The rally had serious staying power.
3. Accelerated Sprint (Late 2024-2025): Macro Hype + Emotional Frenzy
2025’s macro backdrop is gold’s dream: The Fed cut rates twice (down to 3.75%-4%) and stopped quantitative tightening, fueling global liquidity hopes. Meanwhile, Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts dragged on, the IMF cut global growth to 2.7%, and safe-haven demand stayed red-hot. Most importantly, central bank gold buying surged—220 tons in Q3 2025, with 43% of central banks planning more purchases.On the chart: The slope spiked to nearly 70 degrees, prices soaring away from the 6-month (white) MA. That’s retail investors and short-term traders chasing the hype. Macro logic (rate cuts + safe havens + central bank buys) lit a fire, and technical breakthroughs amplified gains. But it’s also sowing seeds of a pullback—short-term overbought conditions and profit-taking pressure are building.
2. MA Code: Macro Money’s Cost Consensus
With the correct MA labels (white: 6-month, green: 1-year, yellow: 18-month, red: 2-year), each MA is a cost floor for different macro players, backed by solid logic:
1. 6-Month MA (White): Institutions’ Policy Radar
This is institutional investors’ (6-12 month holdings) policy compass. The Fed’s 2025 rate-cut pace and inflation data swing their gold positions.
When the Fed hints at cuts, institutions push prices up along this MA—steady slope means policy expectations match money flows.
If hot inflation sparks rate-hike fears, prices may test this MA, but as long as rate cuts are on track, institutions will step in to buy.
2. 1-Year MA (Green): Long-Term Money’s Safety Net
This is the macro floor for long-term investors (1-2 year holdings), rooted in de-dollarization and geopolitical risks.In 2025, central banks keep buying gold and reducing dollar reserves—this trend keeps the 1-year (green) MA rising, acting as the bull run’s anchor. Even above $4,000/oz, central banks don’t stop—they’re safeguarding financial security. As long as this MA holds, gold’s long-term bull case stays intact.
3. 18-Month (Yellow) & 2-Year (Red) MAs: Super-Long-Term Money’s Big Picture
These are strategic cost lines for sovereign funds and central banks, reflecting global economic restructuring.
The 2-year (red) MA’s upward trend mirrors the end of dollar dominance—OMFIF predicts the dollar’s reserve share will drop to 52% by 2035, boosting gold’s value as a non-sovereign asset.
The 18-month (yellow) MA’s support ties to geopolitical endurance—with conflicts ongoing and global nuclear warheads rising for the first time in 30 years, super-long money holds tight, making this MA a rock-solid support.
3. Slope Secrets: Macro Sentiment Thermometer
Slope changes show how intense macro sentiment is and how fast money is flowing—different slopes mean different macro scenarios:
1. Gentle Slope (2022-Early 2024, 40-50 Degrees): Macro Logic Unfolding Steadily
A steady, slow climb matched gradual macro progress: Fed near the end of hikes → rate-cut hopes, on-again-off-again geopolitics, and steady central bank buying.Institutions called the shots here, slowly rallying and pulling back to the 1-year (green) MA to shake out weak hands while waiting for macro confirmation. For traders, this was the sweet spot—clear macro logic + solid technical support. Pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA were low-risk buys, backed by both macro and technicals.
2. Steep Slope (Late 2024-2025, Nearly 70 Degrees): Macro Hype Overdrive
A sharp slope means macro sentiment went wild: Fed rate cuts landed, central bank buying surprised to the upside, geopolitics worsened—markets shouted “gold only goes up,” drawing short-term traders and retail.But this slope is risky: Macro expectations are overstretched. The Fed has limited room for more cuts, and any de-escalation in conflicts could trigger a quick exit by speculators. Technically, prices are way too far from the 6-month (white) MA—mean reversion (pullback to longer MAs) is inevitable to cool down overheated expectations.
3. Consolidation Ahead: Macro Reckoning + Technical Repair
After a steep run, consolidation is all about balancing macro expectations. Markets wait for the Fed’s next move and geopolitical updates, while profit-takers lock in gains.
If macro logic holds (rate cuts + safe havens), prices will stabilize quickly after testing the 1-year (green) MA and rally again.
If macro shifts (e.g., inflation sparks rate-hike fears), we may see a deeper pullback to the 18-month (yellow) MA. But as long as the 2-year (red) MA climbs, de-dollarization and central bank buying will limit losses—adjustments are just opportunities.
4. Hidden Risks & Opportunities: Macro + Technical Confirmation
For real trading, you need both macro and technical signals to align—otherwise, it’s a low-probability bet:
1. Risk Signals: Macro Shift + Technical Breakdown
Macro: Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish (pauses cuts), China-U.S. trade tensions ease, geopolitics cool down—safe-haven demand dries up.
Technical: Prices close below the 1-year (green) MA for weeks, and the 6-month (white) MA turns down. That’s a double whammy—macro expectations reversed + money fleeing. Cut positions fast.
2. Opportunity Signals: Macro + Technical Alignment
Short-term: Stable macro (Fed stays on rate-cut path), prices pull back to the 6-month (white) MA with shrinking volume. Light positions for a quick bounce.
Medium-term: Macro gets stronger (better-than-expected central bank buying, geopolitics worsen), prices pull back to the 1-year (green) MA with bullish candlesticks. That’s institutional money buying—ideal for medium-term positions.
Long-term: Macro trends hold (de-dollarization + global uncertainty), prices test the 2-year (red) MA and stabilize. That’s a strategic buy for super-long funds—go big if you’re in it for the long haul.
5. Wrap-Up: Macro Sets Direction, Technicals Time Entries
Here’s the core: Macro economics decides gold’s long-term direction (rate cuts + de-dollarization + safe havens), while technicals (MAs, slopes, consolidation) dictate the timing. Trade with macro as your foundation and technicals as your guide:
Long-term investors: Watch the 2-year (red) MA + macro trends. As long as the Fed’s rate-cut cycle continues, central banks keep buying, and de-dollarization persists, hold on—short-term swings are just noise.
Medium-term traders: Focus on the 1-year (green) MA + policy events. After Fed meetings or WGC data releases, buy on pullbacks to the 1-year (green) MA if it holds, sell if it breaks. Follow the macro rhythm for swings.
Short-term traders: Stick to the 6-month (white) MA + sentiment. Buy when prices rally along it, dip-buy on pullbacks, and take quick profits. Don’t fight the macro trend—never short gold in a rate-cut cycle!
Simply put, this gold chart is a technical mirror of 2025’s global macro economy. MA support reflects macro money’s consensus, slope changes show sentiment swings, and consolidation marks macro expectation rebalancing. Nail the macro-technical alignment, and you’ll ride this bull run profitably—no more second-guessing!
(Note: This analysis is based on historical charts and macro data, not investment advice. Gold trading is risky—geopolitics, policy shifts, and liquidity can trigger big moves. Trade wisely!)
SOL短线跌破160关口，空头继续占优SOL短线跌破160关口，空头继续占优。
150整数关口附近会有一波支撑支撑，守不住就要看140了。
当前还在下杀，反弹没量，别急着抄底接飞刀，等底背离信号再动。
艾略特波浪分析 – XAUUSD | 2025年11月4日
🔹 动能分析
日线（D1）：
D1动能已进入超买区域——这表明上升动能正在减弱，今天或明天可能出现趋势反转。
4小时（H4）：
H4动能目前处于超卖区，并正准备向上反转。
这意味着市场可能会连续出现4到5根上涨的H4蜡烛，使动能重新进入超买区域。
1小时（H1）：
H1动能也正在上升，说明短期内可能正在形成新的上升趋势。
🔹 波浪结构
日线（D1）：
目前正在形成一个WXY修正结构。
波浪W似乎已经完成，当前的走势属于波浪X。
然而，这个X浪相对较浅，并且D1动能已经进入超买区域，因此很可能还会有最后一波上升，以完成X浪后再出现反转。
4小时（H4）：
由于D1已处于超买区，主要情景仍然是黄色(4)浪结构。
不过，由于H4动能正准备向上反转，因此很可能会出现最后一波上涨来完成X浪，然后市场可能恢复下跌趋势。
1小时（H1）：
在H1级别，价格正在形成红色WXY结构作为X浪。
W浪已经完成，目前价格正在红色X浪中运行。
在这段X浪中，正在形成一个黑色abcde三角形，当前价格位于三角形的**下边界（ac线）**附近。
如果黑色e浪在ac线附近结束，则该三角形结构完成 → 价格可能会突破上边界，继续上升形成Y浪。
→ 这与H4和H1动能的上升信号相一致。
相反，如果价格跌破ac线并跌至3927以下，则说明日线D1上的紫色X浪已结束，市场可能重新进入下行趋势，与D1动能方向一致。
🔹 交易计划
Buy Stop： 4000
Stop Loss： 3973
Take Profit： 4050
⚠️ 注意： 当前蜡烛区间较大 → 止损也相对较宽，因此建议降低仓位并严格控制风险。
11.4 以太坊价格今日行情：以太坊双锯齿下跌确认！C浪下跌开启，目标直指前低3400附近，反弹分批布局空单（以太坊合约交易）以太坊小级别看ABC下跌结构，C浪下跌没走完。
目前处于C浪下跌，预计破前面3400的低点。
开单建议：反弹做空。
