US dollar slips as dovish Fed comments weigh; yen falls

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday, as investors weighed dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that boosted expectations for a rate cut next month and limited the greenback's upside against major currencies.

The U.S. currency, however, rose against the yen, as investors remained on the lookout for signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency.

Volume was thinner than normal due to a holiday in Japan and a holiday-thinned week in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday.

In afternoon trading, the euro EURUSD rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1526, which put the dollar index down 0.1% at 100.15 DXY. Against the Swiss franc, the dollar slid 0.1% to 0.8079 franc USDCHF.

The dollar slightly extended its fall after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that available data showed the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 policy meeting.

His remarks followed those of New York Fed President John Williams on Friday who said that the U.S. central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk.

Following their comments, Fed fund futures have increased the chances of an interest rate cut of a quarter-point next month to 80%, from 30% before their remarks, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.

Several regional Fed governors, however, argued for delaying further easing until there is clear evidence that inflation is on track to fall to the Fed's 2% target from a still-elevated level.

"There's a bifurcation within the Fed right now — those focusing on backward-looking data versus those that are forward-looking," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.

"Certainly, interest rate fundamentals move currencies."

He noted, though, that there were times that the dollar has not moved in line with expectations — when the Fed is cutting rates, the dollar should be falling.

Markets are also gearing up for potential catalysts, including the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due later in the week.

YEN WOES, STERLING FLAT

The yen fell against the dollar, which rose 0.2% to 156.755 yen, just shy of its 10-month high hit last week of 157.90. USDJPY.

Japan's currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world, prompting traders to ask whether Japanese authorities might step in to stop their currency weakening further.

The yen, however, managed to gain some ground last Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline.

Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade on Thursday a possible window for authorities to step in.

Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television program on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.

"I think if Japan wanted to intervene, this would have been a good day to do it and would have caught the market by surprise with Japan on holiday," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global in New York.

"The fact that they did not intervene today suggested that the bar is still high for intervention."

In other currency pairs, sterling GBPUSD was marginally higher at $1.3108 against the dollar ahead of Wednesday's budget announcement. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is seeking a balance between spending to support faltering growth and demonstrating to investors that Britain can meet its fiscal targets.

Cryptocurrency markets, meanwhile, steadied over the weekend. Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $88,495.19 BTCUSD, lifted by more Fed officials' easing remarks on Monday.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her view that she supports a December rate cut, noting that she's not confident that the central bank can get ahead of a weak labor market.