Volume Cloud [LucF]

2019年3月21日

A strictly volume-based cloud. It plots current volume (green line) over its 20-period linear regression (red line) on the chart. Unlike Ichimoku's cloud, it is not offset. While probably not something that you would have on your charts all the time, it can provide a useful way to study the interaction between price and volume.

Because the green line is the current volume, you can forego volume columns when using the indicator.

Volume Cloud does have practical uses. I will show here how I use volume to help me in selecting better probability entries, with only Volume Cloud and my TLD indicator on the chart (the Volume Columns are there to provide context for first-time users of the Volume Cloud).

When looking for entries, I’m trying to find spots where a reversal from a bottom or a continuation after a pause is confirmed by increasing volume (preferably above average) candles with proper wick/body structure. The candle structure of increasing volume candles is important because for me, it provides granularity on the volume action during the candle. I view wicks as failed tests and body height as reinforcement of the price movement. As for candles where volume is not increasing, I mostly ignore them. This is a simplified account of my mindset; just the stories I trade with and that I believe provide an edge—and profits. I certainly don’t pretend having found an infallible way to trade, and there is much more to it that I can explain here, but let’s look at a chart.

Point 1: Solid increasing volume and above average down candle, but I don’t enter on big candles. The volume on that candle has reached a new high though, so I’m thinking bearish sentiment for the next bars.
Point 2: Nicely formed above average increasing volume candle, but I’m looking to short. A similar’ish candle 4 bars back was followed by non-descript action. After 2, a test of past resistance fails before reaching it and a lower low and then a lower high bring us to point 3.
Point 3: Exactly what I’m looking for. No upper wick, solid body that’s not too big, and the highest volume reached on chart yet as a bonus. I enter on the following candle and because of the solid context, I can use a tight stop at the previous candle’s high. Going down, I will move my stop to the high of any increasing volume candle going in my direction, starting when that point is at least as far from my entry as my stop (RR=1).
Point 4: This is the last point where I move my stop at the candle’s high and get stopped out at the following candle for a RR=3.75 trade. Notice how the very high volume at point 4 generates a relatively small body. This is often a sign of stopping volume that portends a reversal or a pause.
Point 5: A first above average increasing volume candle, but with longish wicks that don’t fit my idea of a solid candle. Definitely not a strong enough sign to bet on a reversal from the recent strong descent.
Point 6: This candle is a different story altogether. No lower wick, reasonably sized body, double the volume of previous candle and a close way above the previous 20 candles. Long entry with stop at candle 6’s low. I don’t move my stop on the candle following my entry because it wouldn’t put me at RR=1, so the first time I move my stop up is at candle just before point 7.
Point 7: I get stopped out for RR=3 after that candle because I will have moved my stop a second time, at candle’s 7 low.

I didn’t make these trades (can’t even short on Binance yet), and while this is a typical a posteriori story, it does reflect what I do in reality.