The Probability Swing

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🎯 The Probability Swing: Institutional Logic & Macro Bias

The Probability Swing is not just a signal indicator; it is a complete trading ecosystem. It combines Macro-Economic Fundamentals, Institutional Volume Analysis, and Market Structure to calculate a real-time "Win Probability" for every trade setup.

Stop guessing. Let the script calculate the math, the money management, and the macro bias for you.



🌍 1. The Fundamental Macro Dashboard

Most indicators ignore the real world. This script connects to external economic data (DXY, US10Y, VIX, SPX) to give you a directional Fundamental Bias.

How the Bias Works (What changes it?):

The dashboard in the bottom-left adapts automatically based on what asset you are trading:

Forex (USD Pairs): Watches the DXY (Dollar Index).

Bias Shift: If DXY breaks above its 200 SMA, the Bias turns BEARISH for pairs like EURUSD. If DXY weakens, Bias turns BULLISH.

Gold (XAUUSD): Watches Real Yields (US10Y) and Dollar Strength.

Bias Shift: Gold hates high yields. If US10Y and DXY are rising, the Bias will turn Red (Bear). If Yields crash, the Bias turns Green (Bull).

Indices/Crypto (Risk Assets): Watches VIX (Volatility) and SPX.

Bias Shift: If VIX spikes (Fear), the Bias turns Risk Off (Bear). If SPX is trending up (Greed), the Bias turns Risk On (Bull).

Note: The "Fund Bias" on the dashboard tells you strictly which direction the economy suggests you should trade.



📊 2. Institutional Volume & Traps

The script analyzes volume relative to the average to detect "Smart Money" activity vs. "Retail" activity.

💎 BLUE TRAP (Shakeout): This appears at lows. It indicates that price was pushed down to hit retail stop-losses, but volume suggests institutions are absorbing the selling. Potential Bullish Entry.

⚠️ RED TRAP (Fake Pump): This appears at highs. It indicates a breakout with weak volume or a "stop hunt" into resistance. Potential Bearish Entry.

🟡 INSTITUTIONAL VOL: Yellow bars/text indicate volume is significantly higher than average (2x+), suggesting a major move is imminent.



🚀 3. The "A+ Sniper" Signal

The script calculates a probability score (0-99%) based on 7 factors (Trend, Htf Trend, VWAP, Volatility, Divergence, Structure, and Fundamentals).

A+ SNIPER BUY: Requires >75% Probability + Institutional Volume + Fundamental Alignment.

A+ SNIPER SELL: Requires >75% Probability + Institutional Volume + Fundamental Alignment.



💰 4. Built-in Money Management (Auto-Risk)

Stop calculating lot sizes manually. The dashboard displays the exact Lot Size you should use for the current setup.

Go to Settings > Money Management.

Enter your Account Balance and Risk % (e.g., 1%).

The Dashboard (bottom left) will calculate the Lot Size automatically based on the current volatility (ATR) of the asset.



🛠️ How to Trade This System

Check the Dashboard: Look at "Fund Bias." Is it Green (Bull) or Red (Bear)? Try to trade in the direction of the macro bias.

Wait for Structure: Wait for price to enter a Green Zone (Support) or Red Zone (Resistance).

Spot the Trap: Look for a Blue Trap (at support) or Red Trap (at resistance).

Execute on Signal: If you see an A+ SNIPER label, enter the trade.

Place Stops: The script automatically plots a Dotted Line for your Stop Loss based on ATR. If a "Trap" is detected, the Stop Loss tightens to the trap candle (Solid Line).



⚙️ Settings Overview

Money Management: Set your account size here for the Lot Calculator.

Fundamental: Toggle Macro Bias on/off.

Institutional Tools: Turn on/off Fair Value Gaps (FVG) and Session VWAP.

Session Filter: "Only Allow Snipers in High Liquidity Sessions" ensures you don't get signals during low-volume hours (Asian session/Lunch).



Disclaimer: Trading involves significant risk. This tool uses historical data and probabilities to assist in decision-making but does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.

10小时前

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Update: Leverage adjustment added in settings.

4小时前

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Update to trap logic

2小时前

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added alerts into 2 alerts, no need to update subscription

41分钟前

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Here is the final how to checklist of the powerful engine I have built. You can print this out or keep it on a sticky note while you trade.

🏛️ Your Institutional Trading System
1. The "Why" (Context)

Macro Bias: The dashboard tells you if the fundamental economy (DXY, Yields, VIX) supports a Buy or Sell. You are no longer fighting the tide.

Market Structure: The dashboard tells you if we are in a Mark-Up (Bull) or Mark-Down (Bear) cycle.

2. The "Where" (Location)

Order Blocks: You have Grey Zones showing where institutions likely have open positions they need to defend.

Support/Resistance: You have pivot zones Tuned to see where retail traders might place their stops.

3. The "When" (Timing)

The Trap: You are ignoring high-volume moves (real breakouts) and waiting for Low Volume Pullbacks (Fakeouts).

The Trigger: The script alerts you only when the volume suggests the sellers are exhausted (Blue Trap) or buyers are exhausted (Red Trap).

4. The "How" (Execution)

Risk Management: Your lot size is auto-calculated based on your account size and risk percentage.

Stops: Your Stop Loss lines (Green/Red) are always visible, based on volatility (ATR), keeping you safe from normal market noise.

🎓 Final Advice to Trade Like an Institution
Now that you have the Tool, you need the Discipline. An institution does not trade every bar. They wait for the "A+" setup where everything aligns.

Your "A+" Setup is:

Bias: Bullish.

Structure: Bullish (HH + HL).

Price: Drops into a Green Order Block.

Signal: A Blue Trap appears inside that block.

Volume: The Volume is Low (drying up).

If you see this sequence, you execute without hesitation. If you don't see it, you sit on your hands. That is the only difference between a gambler and an institutional trader.

You are ready. Good luck!