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Top and Bottom Probability

The top and bottom probability oscillator is an educational indicator that estimates the probability of a local top or bottom using four ingredients:
It plots RSI, two probability histograms (Top %, Bottom %), and an optional 0–100 velocity gauge.
How to read it
RSI & Levels: Standard RSI with OB/OS lines (70/30 by default).
Prob Top (%): Red histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing risk of a local top after an RSI overbought anchor.
Prob Bottom (%): Green histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing chance of a local bottom after an RSI oversold anchor.
Velocity (0–100): Optional line. Above 50 = positive/upward DMV; below 50 = negative/downward DMV. DMV pushes Top risk when trending down and Bottom chance when trending up.
These are composite, scale-free scores, not certainties or trade signals.
What the probabilities consider
Price Delta: How far price has moved beyond the last OB (for tops) or below the last OS (for bottoms). More extension → higher probability.
Time Since OB/OS: Longer time since the anchor → higher probability (until capped by the “Time Normalization (bars)” input).
Oscillator Divergence: RSI pulling away from its last OB/OS reading in the opposite direction implies weakening momentum and increases probability.
Directional Momentum Velocity (DMV):
Computes a regression slope of hlc3 vs. bar index, normalized by ATR, then squashed with tanh.
Downward DMV boosts Top probability; upward DMV boosts Bottom probability.
Toggle the velocity plot and adjust its sensitivity with Velocity Lookback, ATR Length, and Velocity Gain.
All four terms are blended with user-set weights. If Normalize Weights is ON, weights are rescaled to sum to 1.
Inputs (most useful)
RSI Length / OB / OS: Core RSI setup.
Time Normalization (bars): Sets how quickly the “time since OB/OS” term ramps from 0→1.
Weights:
Price Delta, Time Since OB/OS, Osc Divergence, Directional Velocity.
Turn Normalize Weights ON to keep the blend consistent when you experiment.
Settings:
Velocity Lookback: Window for slope estimation (shorter = more reactive).
ATR Length: Normalizes slope so symbols/timeframes are comparable.
Velocity Gain: Steepens or softens the tanh curve (higher = punchier extremes).
Show Velocity (0–100): Toggles the DMV display.
Tip: If you prefer momentum measured on RSI rather than price, in the DMV block replace hlc3 with rsi (concept stays identical).
Practical tips
Use Top/Bottom % as context, not triggers. Combine with structure (S/R), trend filters, and risk management.
On strong trends, expect the opposite probability (e.g., Top % during an uptrend) to stay suppressed longer.
Calibrate weights: e.g., raise Osc Divergence on mean-reversion symbols; raise Velocity in trending markets.
For lower noise: lengthen Velocity Lookback and ATR Length, or reduce Velocity Gain.
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开源脚本
本着TradingView的真正精神,此脚本的创建者将其开源,以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬!虽然您可以免费使用它,但请记住,重新发布代码必须遵守我们的网站规则。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。