Axel Alts

Overview
Axel Alts is a higher-timeframe-aware overlay that forms a two-line support band for altcoins using a sticky, threshold-and-step progression. It draws an Upper Support (mid) and a Lower Support (low) derived from evolving local lows, with smoothed transitions and an optional halving-cycle bear-window background.

The goal is disciplined context: identify controlled pullbacks into support in constructive regimes and avoid emotional chasing. All core settings are fixed for consistent behavior across symbols.
Core logic (concepts, not implementation)
• Two baseline levels are computed as fractional distances from the current base and then smoothed.
• A sticky mechanism advances each line toward its target only when deviation is material, and in capped steps. This reduces whipsaw and preserves structure.
• Visual easing smooths transitions so curves remain stable and readable.
• Rendering accounts for higher-timeframe structure and uses interpolation on lower timeframes for visual continuity; values do not look ahead and finalize on higher-timeframe closes.
• An optional bear-window background is derived from halving dates to flag a more cautious phase between the late part of one cycle and the run-up to the next.
Inputs
• Parameters are locked (lengths, fractions, sticky thresholds/steps, easing radii, bear-window bounds). No user-tweakable inputs—this prevents overfitting and improves repeatability.
How to read it
• The zone between Upper Support and Lower Support is the preferred “controlled pullback” area in constructive regimes.

• Persistent closes above Upper Support indicate strength; orderly reactions into the band can be constructive.

• Sustained closes below Lower Support warn of deterioration; be cautious with aggressive longs until recovery.
• The bear-window background suggests a more conservative stance on risk and size.
• Confirmations are best taken on daily/weekly closes; short-term pokes through the band are often noise.
Practical use cases
• Altcoin rotation: prioritize names holding the band; de-prioritize those persisting below it.
• Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) context: scale within the band during favorable regimes.
• Risk framing: tighten or reduce exposure on breaks below Lower Support or during the bear window.
• Confluence: combine with volume/volatility tools and market-wide risk gauges.
Best practices
• Rely on daily/weekly closes for confirmation.
• Pair with market structure (HH/HL vs. LH/LL) and higher-timeframe support/resistance.
• Consider broader cycle context (e.g., halving windows) before scaling risk.
Technical notes
• Non-repainting: values finalize on the close of the higher timeframe used by each calculation.
• Interpolation on lower timeframes is for continuity only; it is not forward-looking.
• Bear-window boundaries are fixed and derived from publicly known Bitcoin halving dates.
• The fill between lines is fixed in the current configuration.
Who it is for
• Traders who want a fixed-rules, repeatable context for alt pullbacks and trend health.
• Systematic users who prefer deterministic, non-tunable overlays for portfolio discipline.
Limitations & disclosures
• Closed-source; for educational and analytical use only.
• Not financial advice. Markets involve risk; past performance does not guarantee future results.
Release notes
• Includes sticky progression for both support lines with eased transitions.
• Improved visual continuity on lower timeframes while respecting higher-timeframe structure.
• Added halving-based bear-window highlighting (bounds are fixed).
Originality & why closed-source
This is not a reimplementation of public open-source scripts. Axel Alts integrates (1) sticky threshold-and-step progression, (2) dual support lines built from fractional levels off evolving lows with separate smoothing, (3) visual easing for stability, and (4) a halving-based bear window. The interaction of thresholds/steps, smoothing, and the regime window is proprietary and tuned to retain structure while limiting lag. The source is closed to protect this implementation.
Integration, not a mashup
Axel Alts is a single, self-contained framework. It does not merely merge indicators; its components are designed to work together to form a unified support band with a clear reading protocol (hold within the band, caution below, close-based confirmations, optional bear-window context).
Indicator, not a strategy
This publication is an indicator overlay, not a trading strategy. It includes no backtests, position logic, performance claims, or risk assumptions. Use it as analytical context within your own risk management.
Comparison to common tools
Compared to standard moving-average channels or volatility bands, Axel Alts emphasizes (1) structure retention via sticky thresholds/steps, (2) smoother visuals through eased transitions, and (3) explicit cycle context via the halving-based bear window.