OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
已更新 0_dte
USAGE
This script guages the probability of an underlying moving a certain amount on expiration day, to aid the popular "0 dte" strategy. The script counts how many next-day moves exceeded a given magnitude in the past, under similar conditions. The inputs are:
mark_mode:
- "open": measures the magnitude as "open to close"--a true 0 dte.
- "previous close": for lazy people who don't want to wake up early. measures magnitude from the previous day's close.
move_mode:
- "percent": measures moves that exceed a given percentage.
- "absolute": measures moves that exceed a point value.
move-dir: measure only up moves, down moves, or both.
vol_model: the model for realized volatility. (may add more later).
min_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is above this value.
max_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is below this value.
precision: number of digits printed in the output table.
EXAMPLE:
- mark_mode: "previous close"
- move_mode: "percent"
- move_dir: "up"
- move_mag: 0.07
- vol_model: hv30
- min_vol: 0.2
- max_vol: 0.5
These settings will count the number of trading days that closed 7% higher than the previous day's close, when the previous day's realized volatility (annualized) was between 20% and 50%. The outputs are:
- current vol: green plot. Today's realized vol. Shown for convenience.
- max and min vol: red plots. Also shown for convenience.
- count: the number of days that exceeded the chosen magnitude, when the previous day's realized volatility was within the chosen bounds.
- total: the total number of days where realized volatility was within the chosen bounds
- probability: count / total. the percentage of days that exceeded the move when volatility was within the bounds.
- move: plotted as a purple line. purple "X" labels are plotted above
- bars where the move exceeded the magnitude threshold and volatility was in-bounds. a "hit".
CONCLUSION
This script is based on the idea that realized volatility has some bearing on future volatility. By seeing what happened in the past when volatility was close to its current value, we may be able to assess the probability that our short put will be in the money, tomorrow, and our account devastated.
NOTE: Unlike many of my other scripts, all percentages--both inputs and outputs--are given in fractional form. E.g., 0.01 means 1%.
This script guages the probability of an underlying moving a certain amount on expiration day, to aid the popular "0 dte" strategy. The script counts how many next-day moves exceeded a given magnitude in the past, under similar conditions. The inputs are:
mark_mode:
- "open": measures the magnitude as "open to close"--a true 0 dte.
- "previous close": for lazy people who don't want to wake up early. measures magnitude from the previous day's close.
move_mode:
- "percent": measures moves that exceed a given percentage.
- "absolute": measures moves that exceed a point value.
move-dir: measure only up moves, down moves, or both.
vol_model: the model for realized volatility. (may add more later).
min_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is above this value.
max_vol: only measure moves when realized vol is below this value.
precision: number of digits printed in the output table.
EXAMPLE:
- mark_mode: "previous close"
- move_mode: "percent"
- move_dir: "up"
- move_mag: 0.07
- vol_model: hv30
- min_vol: 0.2
- max_vol: 0.5
These settings will count the number of trading days that closed 7% higher than the previous day's close, when the previous day's realized volatility (annualized) was between 20% and 50%. The outputs are:
- current vol: green plot. Today's realized vol. Shown for convenience.
- max and min vol: red plots. Also shown for convenience.
- count: the number of days that exceeded the chosen magnitude, when the previous day's realized volatility was within the chosen bounds.
- total: the total number of days where realized volatility was within the chosen bounds
- probability: count / total. the percentage of days that exceeded the move when volatility was within the bounds.
- move: plotted as a purple line. purple "X" labels are plotted above
- bars where the move exceeded the magnitude threshold and volatility was in-bounds. a "hit".
CONCLUSION
This script is based on the idea that realized volatility has some bearing on future volatility. By seeing what happened in the past when volatility was close to its current value, we may be able to assess the probability that our short put will be in the money, tomorrow, and our account devastated.
NOTE: Unlike many of my other scripts, all percentages--both inputs and outputs--are given in fractional form. E.g., 0.01 means 1%.
版本注释
- annualize volatility with 252, rather than 365 trading periods- fixed misnamed condition
开源脚本
本着TradingView的真正精神，此脚本的创建者将其开源，以便交易者可以查看和验证其功能。向作者致敬！虽然您可以免费使用它，但请记住，重新发布代码必须遵守我们的网站规则。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。