OBVX Conviction Bias

🧮 The OBVX Conviction Bias overlay tracks the flow of directional volume using the classic On-Balance Volume calculation, then filters it through a layered moving average system to expose crowd commitment, pressure transitions, and momentum fatigue. The tool applies two smoothed averages to the OBV line—a fast curve and a longer-term baseline scaled using Euler’s constant (2.718)—and visualizes their relationship using a color-coded crossover ribbon and pressure fills. When used correctly, it reveals whether a move is being supported by meaningful volume, or whether the crowd is starting to disengage.

🚦 The core signal compares OBV to its fast moving average. When OBV climbs above the short average, it fills green—suggesting real directional effort. When OBV sinks below, the fill turns maroon—flagging fading conviction or pullback potential. A second fill between the short and long OBV moving averages captures the broader trend of volume intention. If the short is above the long, this space fills greenish, showing constructive pressure. If it flips, the fill fades red, signaling crowd hesitation, rotation, or early exhaustion.

⚖️ All smoothing is user-selectable, defaulting to VWMA for effort-sensitive structure. The long-term average is auto-scaled using the natural exponential multiplier (2.718), offering rhythm that reflects the curve of participation. OBVX Conviction Bias isn’t trying to predict—it’s trying to show you where the crowd is leaning, and whether that lean is gaining traction or losing strength.

🧐 Ideal Use-Cases:

• Detect divergence between volume flow and price action
• Confirm breakout validity with volume alignment
• Fade breakouts where OBV fails to follow through
• Time pullback entries when OBV pressure resumes in trend direction

🍷 Recommended Pairings:

• ZVOL to measure whether volume is statistically significant or just noise (as shown)
• RVOL Effort Matrix to validate crowd effort by tier and structure zone
• SUPeR TReND 2.718 and/or MA Ribbons for directional confluence
• ATR Turbulence to track volatility-phase alignment with volume intention