Bitcoin Stock To Flow Rainbow Indicator

2020年4月21日

Hello everyone,

I have finished to create the Bitcoin stock to flow indicator, rainbow version.
It's a Bitcoin price prediction model.

What is Stock To Flow ?

Stock is the size of the existing stockpiles or reserves and flow is the yearly production.
The formula is : Stock divided by flow ( Stock_to_flow = STOCK / FLOW )

The supply of bitcoins is fixed in the source code.

What we know :

• Blocks are created every 10 minutes ( average )
  
• In 2009, 50 Bitcoins was created every 10 minutes , so 300 Bitcoins per hour, 7200 per day, 2628000 per year
  
• The Halving happened each 210000 blocks , the average time between halving is around 1300-1400 days.
  

The mathematical formula that I used for the rainbow line is : exp(-1,84) * (Stock_to_flow ^ 3,36)
And the mathematical formula that I used for the " top price line " is : 1.2 * (Stock_to_flow ^ 3)

The rainbow line IS the prediction model .

We can observe that :

• The price follow the rainbow line
  
• After each halving, the price grow and touch few month after the rainbow line
  
• When the price is between the rainbow line and the " top price line ", habitually, it's followed by a drop of the price below the rainbow line.
  
  • Special thanks to PlanB.
    

2024年9月18日

版本注释

Updated version