/Introduction
The Bull Bear Indicator (BBI) identifies bull market conditions and bear market conditions for equity investors so they can avoid missing a bull market or getting caught in a bear market.
/Signals
There are two signals:
1. Bull Market Alert - This indicates prices of stocks in the broader market are rising.
2. Bear market Alert - This indicates prices of stocks in the broader market are falling.
Both signals are indicated by a background colour and an upward/downward triangle. A green background and an upward green triangle below the bar signifies an environment of rising prices. A red background and a downward red triangle above the bar indicates an environment of falling prices.
Lack of a coloured background indicates a transition period from Bull to Bear or Bear to Bull conditions. The transitions may be rapid during periods of high volatility.
/Construction
The indicator is constructed using market breadth, price action and moving averages.
1.Market Breadth:
Definition: Market breadth refers to the number of stocks advancing versus the number declining in the stock market. It provides insight into the overall health and strength of a market move.
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: In a bull market, market breadth is typically strong, with a large number of stocks advancing. This indicates widespread participation in the market rally, confirming the strength and sustainability of the upward trend.
Bear Market Indicators: Conversely, in a bear market, market breadth weakens, with more stocks declining than advancing. This suggests that the downward movement is broad-based across the market, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
How the indicator does this: The number of stocks in a bullish/bearish trend is counted and normalised to a percentage to determine what percentage of stocks in the overall market are bullish/bearish.
2. Price Action:
Definition: Price action involves the study of historical price movements to predict future price direction. It includes analyzing patterns, trends, and the reactions of prices to certain levels (like support and resistance).
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: In a bull market, price action typically shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating an ongoing upward trend. The reaction to support levels is often strong, with prices bouncing off these levels.
Bear Market Indicators: In a bear market, the price action is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Prices tend to break through support levels and bounce off resistance levels, reflecting the dominant downward trend.
3. Trend Analysis:
Definition: Trend analysis involves identifying the direction and strength of market movements. This was done using moving averages.
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: A bull market is often identified by upward-sloping trendlines and prices consistently staying above key moving averages.
Bear Market Indicators: In a bear market, the trendlines slope downwards, and prices remain below key moving averages.
How the indicator does this: The average closing prices of the largest capitalised stocks and their intermediate trend is assessed relative to their moving averages, the moving average combines price action and trend because it is simply the average closing price over time.
/Originality
This indicator is simple and effective in that it uses multiple factors to assess the market environment. Market breadth gives an overview of the participation level in the market trend, price action helps identify specific patterns and reactions to key levels indicating a bull or bear market, and trend analysis provides a macro view of the market direction and its strength. Combining these tools can gives a comprehensive picture of the market environment and help in distinguishing between bull and bear markets. The market environments are boldly marked out through background colours and triangle markers. The indicator performance is only valid from 2002 to date because the market breadth data used is not available before this date.
Why market Market breadth: Because it takes into account all the stocks in the market, this is essential in identifying the level of participation in a trend.
Why moving averages: Because it ensures that the price action and overall trend of the stocks can be monitored over a given lookback period
So together, moving average/price action + market breadth = trend + participation
Note:
The indicator has no predictive power, performance described here does not guarantee future results. Equity markets are particularly volatile and prone to cycles, and individual psychology can significantly affect indicator interpretation. Price data may also vary across exchanges.
/Settings
The parameters are fixed and there is no room for optimisation however, style settings can be modified by the user.
/Tickers
The BBI indicator is ticker agnostic but best viewed on a 1 day chart of the SPY.
The Bull Bear Indicator (BBI) identifies bull market conditions and bear market conditions for equity investors so they can avoid missing a bull market or getting caught in a bear market.
/Signals
There are two signals:
1. Bull Market Alert - This indicates prices of stocks in the broader market are rising.
2. Bear market Alert - This indicates prices of stocks in the broader market are falling.
Both signals are indicated by a background colour and an upward/downward triangle. A green background and an upward green triangle below the bar signifies an environment of rising prices. A red background and a downward red triangle above the bar indicates an environment of falling prices.
Lack of a coloured background indicates a transition period from Bull to Bear or Bear to Bull conditions. The transitions may be rapid during periods of high volatility.
/Construction
The indicator is constructed using market breadth, price action and moving averages.
1.Market Breadth:
Definition: Market breadth refers to the number of stocks advancing versus the number declining in the stock market. It provides insight into the overall health and strength of a market move.
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: In a bull market, market breadth is typically strong, with a large number of stocks advancing. This indicates widespread participation in the market rally, confirming the strength and sustainability of the upward trend.
Bear Market Indicators: Conversely, in a bear market, market breadth weakens, with more stocks declining than advancing. This suggests that the downward movement is broad-based across the market, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.
How the indicator does this: The number of stocks in a bullish/bearish trend is counted and normalised to a percentage to determine what percentage of stocks in the overall market are bullish/bearish.
2. Price Action:
Definition: Price action involves the study of historical price movements to predict future price direction. It includes analyzing patterns, trends, and the reactions of prices to certain levels (like support and resistance).
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: In a bull market, price action typically shows higher highs and higher lows, indicating an ongoing upward trend. The reaction to support levels is often strong, with prices bouncing off these levels.
Bear Market Indicators: In a bear market, the price action is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Prices tend to break through support levels and bounce off resistance levels, reflecting the dominant downward trend.
3. Trend Analysis:
Definition: Trend analysis involves identifying the direction and strength of market movements. This was done using moving averages.
Use in Identifying Bull/Bear Markets:
Bull Market Indicators: A bull market is often identified by upward-sloping trendlines and prices consistently staying above key moving averages.
Bear Market Indicators: In a bear market, the trendlines slope downwards, and prices remain below key moving averages.
How the indicator does this: The average closing prices of the largest capitalised stocks and their intermediate trend is assessed relative to their moving averages, the moving average combines price action and trend because it is simply the average closing price over time.
/Originality
This indicator is simple and effective in that it uses multiple factors to assess the market environment. Market breadth gives an overview of the participation level in the market trend, price action helps identify specific patterns and reactions to key levels indicating a bull or bear market, and trend analysis provides a macro view of the market direction and its strength. Combining these tools can gives a comprehensive picture of the market environment and help in distinguishing between bull and bear markets. The market environments are boldly marked out through background colours and triangle markers. The indicator performance is only valid from 2002 to date because the market breadth data used is not available before this date.
Why market Market breadth: Because it takes into account all the stocks in the market, this is essential in identifying the level of participation in a trend.
Why moving averages: Because it ensures that the price action and overall trend of the stocks can be monitored over a given lookback period
So together, moving average/price action + market breadth = trend + participation
Note:
The indicator has no predictive power, performance described here does not guarantee future results. Equity markets are particularly volatile and prone to cycles, and individual psychology can significantly affect indicator interpretation. Price data may also vary across exchanges.
/Settings
The parameters are fixed and there is no room for optimisation however, style settings can be modified by the user.
/Tickers
The BBI indicator is ticker agnostic but best viewed on a 1 day chart of the SPY.