Initial Balance + Extensions

10月9日

Overview
Tracks the Initial Balance (IB) range formed during the first hour of trading (9:30-10:30 AM EST) and projects extension levels to identify potential price targets throughout the session.
What It Does

Monitors the 9:30-10:30 AM EST period to establish IB High, IB Low, and Midline
Calculates extension levels at 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of the IB range (both above and below)
Identifies directional bias by comparing the 10:30 AM close to the IB midline
Tracks historical statistics showing breakout frequency and extension hit rates
Updates in real-time during the IB session

Key Features

Live updating IB levels during market hours
Customizable extension percentages (toggle 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%)
Visual directional bias signal (bullish/bearish candle shading at 10:30 AM)
Comprehensive statistics table with breakout rates and extension success percentages
Historical view of past IB levels (configurable lookback period)
Fully customizable colors, labels, and display options

Best Use Cases

Day trading: Use IB levels as support/resistance and extensions as profit targets
Breakout trading: Enter on IB High/Low breaks with defined targets
Range trading: Trade within IB when contained days are likely
Market profiling: Understand price acceptance and rejection zones

Settings
All visual elements are customizable including:

Line colors (default: gray for neutral appearance)
Label styles and sizes
Extension level visibility
Statistics table position and size
Historical data display (0-10 past days)

Technical Notes

Optimized for US market hours (EST/EDT timezone)
Works on any timeframe (1min, 5min, 15min recommended)
Best suited for liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY, QQQ, stocks)
Statistics accumulate over time for improved accuracy

Educational Purpose
Based on Initial Balance theory from Market Profile, this indicator helps traders identify key price levels and understand market structure during the trading day. It is not financial advice and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan.
Note: Past performance statistics do not guarantee future results. Always practice proper risk management.

10月15日

版本注释

table update

10月15日

版本注释

added noon timing to table

10月15日

版本注释

table update

5天前

版本注释

Added extensions and tracking up to 200%
Added Day of the week tracking
Added IB range size tracking with customizable range - Select ES/NQ/RTY from dropdown for preset ranges
Added previous days ranges
All features optionable

3小时前

版本注释

## Overview
Advanced Initial Balance tracking system with proprietary statistical validation for ES, NQ, and RTY futures. Unlike standard IB indicators that simply plot extension levels, this implementation includes a real-time probability engine that analyzes historical success rates across different market conditions, days of the week, and range sizes.

## What Makes This Unique

**Statistical Probability Engine**
- Tracks historical hit rates for each extension level (25%-200%)
- Calculates day-of-week specific probabilities (Monday behavior differs from Friday)
- Adjusts expectations based on IB range size (narrow/normal/wide classification)
- Uses weighted rolling calculations prioritizing recent market behavior

**Adaptive Range Classification**
Categorizes each IB range using instrument-specific thresholds (ES/NQ/RTY presets) because narrow IB days show different extension patterns than wide IB days. This classification drives probability adjustments displayed in the statistics table.

**Multi-Timeframe Touch Detection**
Actively monitors whether extensions were touched, timing of first touch (pre/post-noon), price acceptance vs rejection, and sequential progression patterns. Enables insights like "when 25% touches in first 30min, 50% reaches 73% of the time."

**Enhanced Directional Bias**
The 10:30 AM bias signal (close vs midline) includes visual candle shading, historical accuracy tracking, and day-of-week correlation analysis. Different days show different bias follow-through reliability.

## How It Works

**Initial Balance Calculation (9:30-10:30 AM EST)**
- IB High: Highest price in first hour
- IB Low: Lowest price in first hour
- IB Midline: (High + Low) / 2
- IB Range: High - Low

**Extension Levels**
- Upside: IB High + (Range × percentage)
- Downside: IB Low - (Range × percentage)
- Available: 25%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 150%, 200%

**Directional Bias (10:30 AM)**
- Close > Midline = Bullish (green shading)
- Close < Midline = Bearish (red shading)

**Statistical Database Tracks:**
1. Extension touch rates per level
2. Day-of-week performance patterns
3. Range size correlations (narrow/normal/wide)
4. Pre-noon vs post-noon timing
5. Bias signal accuracy rates

The statistics table updates live, showing breakout frequency, extension hit rates, current range vs historical average, and day-specific data.

## How to Use

**Day Trading**
- Wait for 10:30 AM IB completion and bias confirmation
- Enter breakouts when bias aligns with direction
- Use extensions as profit targets based on historical hit rates
- Size stops relative to IB range (narrow range = tighter stops)

**Breakout Trading**
- Monitor 10:30 bias for directional confirmation
- Enter on IB High/Low break with aligned bias
- Target 25% initially, trail to 50%+ based on statistics
- Check day-of-week data (Friday patterns differ from Monday)

**Range Trading**
- Trade within IB when statistics show low breakout probability
- Use IB High/Low as support/resistance
- Favor mean reversion on historically contained days

**Market Profiling**
- Compare current IB range to average for volatility assessment
- Track acceptance/rejection at extensions to identify key zones
- Use multi-day history to see price level clustering
- Distinguish trending (frequent extensions) vs balanced (contained) markets

## Settings

**Extensions:** Toggle 25%-200% levels individually, customize colors/styles/labels

**Visual:** IB line colors, midline options, bias shading, historical display (0-10 days)

**Statistics Table:** Position (9 locations), size (3 options), toggle stats, colors

**Instruments:** ES/NQ/RTY presets or custom range thresholds

## Technical Notes

- Optimized for US hours (EST/EDT with auto DST)
- Works any timeframe (1-5min recommended)
- Best on liquid instruments (ES, NQ, RTY, SPX)
- Statistics accumulate over time (30+ days minimum, 100+ optimal)
- Designed for regular hours (9:30-4:00 PM EST)

## Why Protected Source

The statistical probability engine, adaptive range classification algorithms, weighting formulas, day-of-week correlation calculations, and range normalization techniques represent proprietary methods developed through extensive testing. These specific mathematical approaches differentiate this from standard IB implementations and constitute protected intellectual property.

## Educational Context

Based on Initial Balance theory from Market Profile. This implementation adds quantitative validation through statistical tracking, range classification, and probability analysis to traditional qualitative IB observations.

## Risk Disclaimers

**Not financial advice.** Educational tool only. Past statistics don't guarantee future results. Market conditions change. Always use proper risk management, position sizing, and stop losses. Historical extension hit rates show correlation, not causation. Indicator performance during extended hours not tracked.