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BTC Risk
The BTC Risk Metric is a normalized market-cycle indicator designed to quantify how risky Bitcoin is to buy or hold at any point in time relative to its own historical behaviour.
It measures how far price has deviated from its long-term trend by calculating the logarithmic distance between Bitcoin’s price and a long-duration moving average (a 377-day simple moving average), then scales that distance by time to account for Bitcoin’s exponential growth.
This raw value is tracked against its historical extremes and normalized into a 0–1 range, where values near zero correspond to deep, low-risk accumulation zones typically seen around major cycle bottoms, and values near one correspond to high-risk conditions historically associated with late-cycle tops. Rather than predicting price, the metric provides a relative, regime-aware framework for assessing risk across cycles, allowing different market phases to be compared on a consistent scale.
It measures how far price has deviated from its long-term trend by calculating the logarithmic distance between Bitcoin’s price and a long-duration moving average (a 377-day simple moving average), then scales that distance by time to account for Bitcoin’s exponential growth.
This raw value is tracked against its historical extremes and normalized into a 0–1 range, where values near zero correspond to deep, low-risk accumulation zones typically seen around major cycle bottoms, and values near one correspond to high-risk conditions historically associated with late-cycle tops. Rather than predicting price, the metric provides a relative, regime-aware framework for assessing risk across cycles, allowing different market phases to be compared on a consistent scale.
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免责声明
这些信息和出版物并非旨在提供，也不构成TradingView提供或认可的任何形式的财务、投资、交易或其他类型的建议或推荐。请阅读使用条款了解更多信息。