FX Realized Volatility *The downward signal for Euqities!?*

The Russel 2000 put in a new ath today as capital is moving further out the risk curve. Risk-Assets continue to rally to the upside.

This will last until we see a lasting driver happening on a real time basis that drag pull equties down


When volatility rises, we need to see the DRIVER of the volatility have persistence behind it as opposed to one off shocks.
We are not there yet as volatility in FX and bonds continues to compress since the April lows in equities.

Equities will continue to rally until long end yields blow out or the carry trade unwinds. Long end yields blowing out is not occuring on an imminent basis but the FX side of things could be a significant risk soon.

Its all about: When will that liquidity beginn to create inflation or a problem in the currency

Monitoring the equity vol, Bond vol and FX volatiliy is crucial here
You can watch them via:

VIX,
Move,
+ i build an Trading view modell which conducts the vol of the major FX pairs.
(its 100% free)


If you just want it simple, just look at USD & EUR vol as they are the most trades foreign exchange currencies.

Watching these 2 Risks (Vol & long-end) will put you upfront most people in the market.

Once we see information in the underlying economy shifting i will adjust my views as they relate to every major asset class.

But for now we are likely moving higher in basically every risky asset.


**Feel free to ask me any questions**