Morning Peak Fade

Morning Peak Fade is an intraday analysis tool that identifies and measures the probability of early session rallies turning into sharp pullbacks.

📊 Core Idea
• Many stocks surge after the open, reaching an intraday peak before fading lower.
• This script anchors at the first significant morning high and tracks the drawdowns that follow within a customizable time window.
• It provides:
• Probability of a fade after the peak
• Average and maximum drawdown statistics
• Event-day hit rate (how often such setups occur)

🎯 Use Cases
• Spot potential “fade setups” where early enthusiasm exhausts quickly.
• Quantify how often chasing the morning high turns into a losing trade.
• Backtest opening range failure or fade strategies with hard data.

⚙️ Features
• Customizable thresholds for the initial surge (relative to prior close).
• Marks the peak (max) and subsequent low (min) used in calculations.
• Draws a reference line at the surge threshold to visualize when the fade triggers.
• Outputs summary stats directly on the chart.