CycleTrend | QuantEdgeB

📊 CycleTrend | QuantEdgeB

The CycleTrend strategy is a comprehensive trend-following system that integrates multiple advanced techniques, including on-chain data analysis, macroeconomic indicators, trend filters, and statistical smoothing functions.
This strategy dynamically adapts to market conditions by blending traditional technical analysis tools with modern quantitative finance approaches, making it a powerful hybrid model suitable for different market regimes.

🔗 The Core Framework of CycleTrend
🧩 1️⃣ Multi-Dimensional Market Analysis
CycleTrend incorporates four key dimensions of market structure, ensuring that it captures long-term, medium-term, and short-term trends while filtering out noise.
✔ On-Chain Data (MosaicMix) → Detects long-term trends using blockchain analytics.
✔ Macro & Risk Indicators (RiskMosaic) → Measures macroeconomic influences on market behavior.
✔ ChronoSync (Technical Trend-Following Signals) → Blends multiple trend-following indicators for directional bias.
✔ Sentival TF (Statistical Sentiment Analysis) → Uses Z-score-based mean-reversion indicators for overbought/oversold conditions.

📊 2️⃣ How These Components Work Together
Each component contributes a specific function to the strategy:
1. On-Chain Analysis (MosaicMix) → Market Strength
o Short-Term Holder MVRV → Measures unrealized profit/loss based on recent Bitcoin holders.
o Profit & Loss Ratio with MVRV Rate of Change (PLRoC) → Filters out weak market conditions using profit/loss trend dynamics.
o Final On-Chain Signal → Determines if on-chain data suggests a bullish or bearish phase.
2. RiskMosaic (Macroeconomic & Risk Model) → Risk-Regime Detection
o Tracks 10 key economic variables like RSI, China Equity Index, PMI, BTC supply trends, and silver ratio.
o Uses Z-score normalization to measure relative trends across macro indicators.
o Identifies shifts in macroeconomic risk sentiment and aligns CycleTrend to major economic cycles.
3. ChronoSync (Technical Trend Model) → Precise Trade Execution
o VIDYA ATR Gaussian Filter → Detects long-term trend momentum with adaptive smoothing.
o KIJUN ATR & Dual SD Kijun → Captures structural price movements while filtering short-term volatility.
o VIDYA Loop Function → Iteratively tracks trend momentum over an extended period.
o PRC-ALMA Adaptive Bands & Bollinger Bands % SD → Adapts trend signals based on mean-reverting conditions.
o Final ChronoSync Score → Aggregates all trend-following components to generate high-probability directional bias.
4. Sentival TF (Mean-Reversion & Momentum Filter) → Smart Entry/Exit Signals
o MVRV Z-Score → Measures how overbought/oversold Bitcoin is relative to historical valuations.
o SOPR, BB%, RSI, RoC, and NUPL Indicators → Filters out low-confidence trade setups by adding statistical validation.
o Final Sentival Signal → A quantitative assessment of whether a trade setup has a statistical edge.

🛠️ 3️⃣ CycleTrend Signal Generation
Once all four components (On-Chain, Macro, ChronoSync, and Sentival) produce signals, they are blended into a final CycleTrend score (TPI):
TPI=On-Chain RiskMosaic + Sentival-Chrono Trend BiasTPI = \text{On-Chain RiskMosaic + Sentival-Chrono Trend Bias}
The strategy then applies threshold-based decision rules:
✔ Go Long (BUY) → If TPI>LuTPI > Lu (Long Threshold)
✔ Go Short (SELL) → If TPI<SuTPI < Su (Short Threshold)
These entry/exit signals dynamically adjust based on market conditions, allowing CycleTrend to trade adaptively.

🚀 Why This Strategy Works
✔ Hybrid Trend-Following & Risk-Adaptive System → Works in trending and ranging markets.
✔ Incorporates On-Chain and Macro Factors → Provides a deeper understanding of market sentiment.
✔ Filters Out False Signals with Statistical Analysis → Reduces whipsaws and improves entry timing.
✔ Adjusts to Different Market Phases → Dynamically adapts to volatility cycles and economic shifts.
✔ Scientifically Validated Approach → Uses Z-score normalization, Gaussian filters, and statistical thresholds for optimal trade execution.

📌 Summary
CycleTrend is a state-of-the-art universal strategy that blends:
✅ Quantitative Finance 📊
✅ Blockchain On-Chain Analysis 🟢
✅ Macroeconomic Insights 🌍
✅ Statistical Signal Processing 🔍
By integrating multiple timeframes, risk models, and sentiment-driven filters, CycleTrend remains robust across different market regimes—whether trending or ranging.
This unique approach ensures that the system stays ahead of market cycles, delivering strong and consistent performance. 🚀

🔹 Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee success in financial markets.
🔹 Strategic Advice: Always backtest, optimize, and align parameters with your trading objectives and risk tolerance before live trading.