Market State Fear & Greed Bubble Index V1Market State Fear & Greed Bubble Index V1
📊 Comprehensive Market Sentiment Analyzer
This advanced indicator measures market psychology through a multi-dimensional scoring system, combining demand/supply pressure, trend momentum, and statistical extremes to identify fear/greed cycles and trading opportunities.
🎯 Core Features
Five-Factor Fear & Greed Score
Weighted sentiment analysis:
Demand/Supply (25%): Real-time buying/selling pressure
RSI (25%): Momentum extremes
KDJ (20%): Overbought/oversold detection
Bollinger Band % (20%): Statistical positioning
ADX Trend (10%): Trend strength confirmation
Multi-Layer Market State Detection
Extreme Fear/Greed: Statistical bubble identification
Trend Bias: Bullish/Bearish/Neutral classification
Confidence Scoring: Setup reliability assessment
Reversal Alerts: Early trend change signals
Visual Dashboard
Top-right information panel displays:
Fear & Greed Score (0-100)
Market State Classification
Trend Bias & Confidence
Signal Quality & Alerts
📈 Key Components
Fear & Greed Gauge
0-30: Extreme Fear (buying opportunities)
30-47: Fear (accumulation zones)
47-70: Neutral (consolidation)
70-90: Greed (caution zones)
90-100: Extreme Greed (selling opportunities)
Deviation Zones
Red Zone (±17.065): Critical reversal areas
Yellow Zone (±34.135): Warning levels
Blue Zone (±47.72): Statistical extremes where reversals are highly likely. These occur when asset prices are in a bubble that's about to pop.
Signal Types
Buy/Sell Labels: Primary entry/exit signals
Scalp Signals: Short-term opportunities
Bottom/Top Detectors: Extreme reversal zones
Whale Indicators: Institutional activity markers
🚀 Trading Applications
Extreme Fear Setups Conditions:
Fear & Greed Score < 34.135
BB% < 0 or < J-inverted line
RSI < 34.135
Confidence score > 68%
Bullish divergence present
Action: Accumulation positions, scaled entries
Extreme Greed Setup Conditions:
Fear & Greed Score > 68.2
BB% > 100 or > 80 with divergence
RSI > 68.2
ADX showing trend exhaustion
Multiple timeframe resistance
Action: Profit-taking, protective stops
Trend Following
Bullish Conditions:
Sentiment score rising from fear zones
DMI+ above DMI- and rising
Confidence > 75%
Volume supporting moves
Bearish Conditions:
Sentiment declining from greed zones
DMI- above DMI+ and rising
Distribution patterns
Multiple resistance failures
⚙️ Customization Options
Adjustable Parameters:
DMI Settings: DI lengths, ADX smoothing
KDJ Periods: Customizable sensitivity
BB% Range: Statistical band adjustments
Smoothing Options: Demand/Supply filtering
Alert Thresholds: Custom signal levels
Visual Customization:
Color schemes for different market states
Line thickness and style preferences
Information panel display options
Alert sound/visual preferences
📊 Signal Interpretation
Primary Signals:
Green 'B': Strong buy opportunity
Red 'S': Strong sell opportunity
White 'Scalp': Short-term trade
Trade Area: Accumulation/distribution zones
Visual Markers:
🔥: Bullish momentum building
🐻: Bear exhaustion building
🐳: Whale/institutional activity
Color-coded fills: Market state visualization
Confidence Levels:
≥80%: High reliability setups
60-79%: Moderate confidence
<60%: Low confidence, avoid or reduce size
⚠️ Risk Management Guidelines
Critical Rules:
Never trade against extreme sentiment (Extreme Fear → buy, Extreme Greed → sell)
Require multiple confirmation signals
Use confidence scores for position sizing
Avoid When:
Conflicting signals between components
Low volume participation
Confidence score < 50%
Major news events pending
Extreme volatility conditions
💡 Advanced Strategies
Sentiment Cycle Trading
Identify sentiment extremes
Wait for confirmation reversals
Enter with trend confirmation
Exit at opposite sentiment extreme
Use confidence scores and fear & greed scores to scale:
Fear & greed scores < 30 = buy area
Fear & greed score > 60 = sell area
Trend Momentum
Exit: At extreme greed with divergence
Enter: At extreme fear with divergence
📊 Market State Classification
Five Primary States:
EXTREME FEAR (BB% <0, RSI <34, Score <34)
FEAR (Score 34-47, bearish momentum)
NEUTRAL (Score 47-70, consolidation)
GREED (Score 70-90, bullish momentum)
EXTREME GREED (Score >90, BB% >100)
State Transitions:
Fear → Neutral: Early accumulation
Neutral → Greed: Trend development
Greed → Extreme Greed: Distribution
Extreme → Reversal: Trend change
🔍 Information Panel Guide
Real-Time Metrics:
FEAR & GREED: Current sentiment score
Market State: Classification and bias
Trend Bias: Bullish/Bearish/Neutral
Confidence: Setup reliability percentage
Momentum: Current directional strength
Volatility: Market condition assessment
Signal Quality: Trade recommendation
Reversal Imminent: Early warning alerts
🌟 Unique Advantages
Psychological Edge:
Quantifies market emotion through multiple indicators
Identifies bubbles before they pop
Provides statistical confidence for each setup
Combines technical extremes with sentiment analysis
Offers clear visual cues for decision making
Professional Features:
Multi-timeframe sentiment analysis
Real-time confidence scoring
Comprehensive alert system
Institutional activity detection
Clear risk/reward visualization
📚 Educational Value
This indicator teaches:
Market psychology cycles
Statistical extreme identification
Multi-indicator confirmation
Risk quantification methods
Professional trade management
Perfect for traders seeking to understand and profit from market sentiment cycles.
Disclaimer: For educational purposes. Trading involves risk. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results.
基本面分析
Linear Regression Market State IndexStandard Deviation Market Structure Indicator
A Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Market Analysis Tool
🎯 Overview
The Standard Deviation Market Structure (SDMS) indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool that integrates multiple proven methodologies to identify market structure, trend direction, and potential reversal zones. By combining price action, statistical analysis, and momentum indicators across multiple timeframes, SDMS provides traders with a comprehensive view of market dynamics.
✨ Key Features
Multi-Timeframe Integration
Primary analysis on current timeframe
1-hour statistical confirmation for support/resistance levels
Order block extension across 500 future bars
Comprehensive Technical Suite
RSI with Deviation Analysis
Dynamic Order Block Detection
Gaussian Filter Channels
Linear Regression with Statistical Bands
Standard deviation to detect price outliers
Directional Movement Index (DMI/ADX)
Bollinger Band % Analysis
Support/Resistance Line System
Visual Clarity
Color-coded signals and zones
Automatic level management
Clean, intuitive display
📊 Core Components Explained
1. Order Block System
What Are Order Blocks?
Order blocks are price zones where institutional activity has occurred, creating future support or resistance levels. SDMS automatically detects these critical zones.
Detection Logic:
Bullish Order Blocks: Form when price breaks above recent highs following bearish candles
Bearish Order Blocks: Form when price breaks below recent lows following bullish candles
Visual Identification:
Green boxes with "BuOB" labels (support zones)
Red boxes with "BeOB" labels (resistance zones)
Each block shows its boundary price for easy reference
Dynamic Management:
Automatically extends 300 bars into the future
Self-cleaning: removes blocks when price breaches their boundaries
Real-time adjustment to changing market structure
2. Statistical Support/Resistance System
How It Works:
SDMS creates support and resistance lines based on statistical extremes confirmed on the 1-hour timeframe.
Trigger Conditions:
Support Lines (Green): Trigger when 1H Bollinger Band % crosses above 0 and bearish momentum subsides.
Resistance Lines (Red): Trigger when 1H Bollinger Band % crosses below 1 and bullish momentum subsides
The Science Behind BB%:
BB% = (Price - Lower Band) / (Upper Band - Lower Band)
BB% <= 0: Price at statistical oversold extreme; also indicated by white candles.
BB% > 1: Price at statistical overbought extreme; also indicated by white candles.
Line Management:
Maximum of 15 active lines
Oldest lines automatically removed
Lines extend across chart for ongoing reference
3. Trend Analysis Suite
Hull Moving Average (HMA):
55-period smoothed trend indicator
Color-coded: Green = bullish, Red = bearish
Visual band shows trend acceleration/deceleration
Gaussian Channel:
Advanced filtering of market noise
Dynamic channel based on true range volatility
Helps identify mean reversion opportunities
Form a yellow band when price is overbought or oversold zones.
Linear Regression System:
Statistical price modeling
Multiple standard deviation bands (up to 3SD)
Regression-based candlestick visualization
Candles turn white when in overbought zones. Yellow candles indicate extremely overbought zones. Blue candles indicate a bullish trend with high volume.
Bearish candles are bluish-purple when volume is high and red when the volume is within normal ranges or low.
4. Momentum & Oscillator Integration
RSI with Deviation Tracking:
21-period RSI with 30-period smoothing
Tracks deviation from moving average based off linear regression
Identifies momentum divergences
Directional Movement Index:
Multi-period DMI/ADX analysis
Used to detect overbought and oversold zones within the indicator calculations.
Combines with RSI for enhanced signals
Momentum confirmation for all entries/exits
🎯 Trading Signals & Alerts
Buy Signals (Yellow "Buy" Labels)
Multi-Condition Confirmation Required:
RSI Oversold Reversal: RSI crosses above 30
Trend Alignment: HMA showing bullish structure
Momentum Confirmation: DMI alignment
Statistical Support: Price at or near support zones
Risk Management: Multiple confirming indicators
Strong Buy Conditions:
Confluence of order block support + BB% support line
Multiple timeframe alignment
Volume confirmation at key levels
Sell Signals (Red/Yellow "Sell" Labels)
Multi-Condition Confirmation Required:
RSI Overbought Reversal: RSI crosses below 70
Trend Exhaustion: HMA showing bearish structure
Momentum Divergence: DMI bearish alignment
Statistical Resistance: Price at or near resistance zones
Timeframe Confirmation: 1H BB% bearish signals
Strong Sell Conditions:
Confluence of order block resistance + BB% resistance line
Multiple timeframe distribution
Volume surge at resistance
Additional Alerts
RSI Divergence Signals: Triangles showing momentum shifts
Extreme Price Alerts: Circles at statistical extremes
Structure Breaks: Visual cues for order block violations
🎨 Visual System Guide
Color Coding System
Green: Bullish conditions, support zones, rising trends
Red: Bearish conditions, resistance zones, falling trends
Blue: Statistical channels, neutral zones
Yellow: Alert conditions, extreme signals
White: Transition zones, neutral signals
Zone Identification
Buying Pressure Zones: Green/blue tinted areas below price or white candles with white dots within the moving average center line
Selling Pressure Zones: Red tinted areas above price with white dots within the moving average center line
Standard Deviation Zones: Gradient colors showing statistical extremes
⚙️ Customization Options
Adjustable Parameters
RSI Settings: Period, oversold/overbought levels, sensitivity
Order Block Detection: Lookback period, ATR multiplier, extension
Statistical Settings: Gaussian filter poles, regression periods
Support/Resistance: Maximum lines, BB% settings
Visual Preferences: Colors, band displays, alert styles
Input Groups
RSI Trading Strategy
Order Block Configuration
Gaussian Channel Settings
Linear Regression Parameters
DMI/ADX Configuration
Bollinger Band % Settings
📈 Practical Trading Applications
For Swing Traders
Identify Key Levels: Use order blocks + BB% lines for entry/exit planning
Trend Confirmation: HMA + Gaussian channel for trend direction
Risk Management: Standard deviation bands for stop placement
Timing Entries: RSI/DMI alignment for optimal entry timing
For Day Traders
Intraday Levels: Order blocks provide immediate S/R for day trading
Momentum Signals: Real-time RSI/DMI signals for quick moves
Statistical Edges: Gaussian channel for mean reversion plays
Breakout Confirmation: Order block breaks with volume
For Position Traders
Higher Timeframe Structure: 1H BB% lines for major levels
Trend Persistence: HMA for long-term trend identification
Accumulation/Distribution Zones: Order blocks show institutional activity
Multi-Timeframe Alignment: Confirmation across timeframes
🔍 How to Use SDMS Effectively
Step 1: Market Structure Assessment
Identify active order blocks (green/red boxes)
Note BB% support/resistance lines (horizontal lines)
Assess HMA and moving average trend direction (color)
Check Gaussian channel position (preferably outside 2SD)
Step 2: Signal Confirmation
Wait for multiple indicator alignment
look for doji candles.
Confirm with green (bullish) or red (bearish) candles
Confirm with volume if available
Check for confluence of levels
Assess risk/reward based on nearby levels
Step 3: Trade Management
Enter at confirmed support/resistance
Place stops beyond opposite levels
Take profits at next statistical level
Monitor for structure changes
Step 4: Risk Management
Use standard deviation bands for volatility assessment
Never risk more than 1-2% per trade
Adjust position size based on confluence strength
Have predefined exit rules
💡 Advanced Strategies
Strategy 1: Confluence Trading
Setup: Order block + BB% line at same level
Entry: Price tests confluence zone with RSI signal
Stop: Beyond the confluence zone
Target: Next statistical level
Strategy 2: Breakout Trading
Setup: Price approaching order block boundary
Entry: Break with volume + RSI/DMI confirmation
Stop: Re-entry into order block
Target: Next BB% line extension
Strategy 3: Mean Reversion
Setup: Price at Gaussian channel extremes
Entry: RSI reversal signal at channel boundary
Stop: Beyond channel extreme
Target: Channel midline or opposite boundary
⚠️ Important Considerations
Best Market Conditions
Trending Markets: Excellent performance in clear trends
Breakout Scenarios: Strong identification of break levels
Range Markets: Works well with defined ranges
Limitations
Choppy Markets: May give false signals in consolidation
News Events: Fundamental shocks can override technical levels
Timeframe Specific: Optimal on 15-minute to daily charts
Risk Management Rules
Always use stops
Never rely on single signals
Consider market context
Adjust for volatility changes
Keep position sizes consistent
🔧 Technical Specifications
Maximum Lines: 500
Maximum Bars Back: 1000
Maximum Boxes: 500
Calculation Efficiency: Optimized for real-time use
🏆 Why SDMS Stands Out
Unique Advantages
Integrated Approach: Combines multiple methodologies into one tool
Self-Adjusting: Automatically adapts to market changes
Multi-Timeframe: Provides both immediate and higher timeframe context
Visual Clarity: Clean, intuitive display of complex data
Professional Grade: Institutional-level analysis accessible to all traders
Educational Value: Learn how different indicators interact
Understand market structure development
See institutional order flow patterns
Develop disciplined trading habits
📚 Learning Resources
Recommended Study Approach
Start Simple: Focus on order blocks and BB% lines first
Add Complexity: Gradually incorporate other indicators
Paper Trade: Practice without risk
Keep Journal: Document setups and outcomes
Review Regularly: Analyze both wins and losses
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
Overtrading: Wait for high-quality setups
Ignoring Context: Consider overall market conditions
Chasing Signals: Enter at planned levels, not after moves
Risk Mismanagement: Always know your risk before entering
Confirmation Bias: Be objective about signals
🤝 Community & Support
Getting the Most from SDMS
Start with Defaults: Use default settings initially
Adjust Gradually: Make small changes as you understand the tool
Combine with Fundamentals: Use for timing within fundamental context
Stay Disciplined: Follow your trading plan consistently
Continuous Improvement
SDMS is designed for continuous learning. As you use the indicator, you'll develop insights into:
Market microstructure
Institutional trading patterns
Statistical edge identification
Risk management optimization
Risk management is more important than signal accuracy
Patience is required for high-quality setups
Success Factors
Discipline: Following your plan consistently
Patience: Waiting for proper setups
Risk Management: Protecting your capital
Continuous Learning: Improving your skills over time
🌟 Final Thoughts
The Standard Deviation Market Structure indicator represents a sophisticated approach to technical analysis, combining the best elements of price action, statistical analysis, and momentum indicators. While powerful, remember that no indicator guarantees success. SDMS is a tool – your skill, discipline, and risk management determine your trading results.
Use SDMS as part of a comprehensive trading plan, combine it with proper risk management, and continue developing your trading skills. The markets are always teaching – stay humble, stay disciplined, and trade well.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risk of loss. Always consult with a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.
SMC + Dual UT Bot buy and sell AlertsMise a jour avec un EMA 20/50 et vwap
his script is a composite indicator for TradingView (Pine Script v5) that merges Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with a Dual-instance UT Bot. It has been styled with a high-contrast "Neon Cyberpunk" theme (Cyan/Pink) and is fully compliant with the CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license.
Here is a breakdown of its two main components:
1. Smart Money Concepts (SMC)
This portion, originally by LuxAlgo, is designed to identify institutional price levels and structural market shifts. It provides a detailed map of market structure rather than simple entry/exit signals.
Market Structure (BOS & CHoCH):
BOS (Break of Structure): Marks trend continuation (e.g., breaking a higher high in an uptrend).
CHoCH (Change of Character): Marks potential trend reversals (e.g., the first time a higher low is broken in an uptrend).
Order Blocks (OB):
Highlights specific candles where institutional buying or selling likely occurred. These act as high-probability support/resistance zones.
Neon Blue/Cyan for Bullish OBs.
Neon Pink for Bearish OBs.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Identifies imbalances (gaps) in price action where the market often returns to "fill" orders.
Neon Mint for Bullish FVGs.
Neon Red for Bearish FVGs.
Premium/Discount Zones: Automatically plots the range equilibrium (50% level) to help you buy in "Discount" (low) and sell in "Premium" (high) areas.
Liquidity (EQH/EQL): Automatically detects "Equal Highs" and "Equal Lows," which are magnets for price as they represent liquidity pools (stop losses).
2. Dual UT Bot Alerts
This portion provides the actual Entry Signals. It runs two separate instances of the "UT Bot" strategy simultaneously with different sensitivity settings to filter noise.
Instance 1 (Buy Only):
Settings: Key Value = 4, ATR Period = 10 (Faster, more sensitive).
Visual: Plots a Neon Cyan "Buy" label.
Function: Looks for bullish reversals earlier to catch the start of a move.
Instance 2 (Sell Only):
Settings: Key Value = 7, ATR Period = 20 (Slower, smoother).
Visual: Plots a Neon Pink "Sell" label.
Function: Uses a wider ATR band to avoid getting shaken out of shorts too early, focusing on major downtrends.
How to Use It
The strength of this script is confluence.
Wait for a Signal: Look for a UT Bot "Buy" or "Sell" tag.
Confirm with SMC: Check if the signal aligns with SMC concepts.
Example Buy: Did the UT Bot give a "Buy" signal while price was bouncing off a Bullish Order Block?
Example Buy: Did price just sweep Liquidity (EQL) before the Buy signal?
Example Sell: Is the "Sell" signal happening inside a Premium Zone or a Bearish Fair Value Gap?
avant-hier
Notes de version
1. "Pro" Badge Buy/Sell Labels
The standard text signals have been replaced with modern, professional Badge Labels that provide more information at a glance.
Visuals: Instead of simple text, the script now uses label.new to create high-visibility badges.
BUY: A Neon Cyan badge with a Rocket icon (🚀).
SELL: A Neon Pink badge with a Chart icon (📉).
Price Details: Each badge displays the exact Entry Price directly on the label.
Tooltips: If you hover your mouse over a Buy or Sell badge, a tooltip will appear showing the exact Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) prices calculated for that trade.
2. Dynamic Take Profit (TP)
The script now automatically calculates a profit target for every trade the moment a signal is generated.
Calculation: It measures the distance between your Entry Price and the initial Stop Loss (the ATR Trailing Stop).
Risk:Reward: It multiplies that distance by your chosen Risk:Reward Ratio (default is 1.5) to project a TP target.
Visual Line: A Green Line is drawn on the chart at the TP level. It remains active until price hits it or the stop loss.
3. Active Trailing Stop Loss (SL)
The Stop Loss is no longer static; it is now "alive" and manages the trade for you.
Trailing Logic: If Use Trailing SL? is enabled (default), the SL line will automatically move up (for longs) or move down (for shorts) as the trend continues in your favor. It locks in profit by following the UT Bot's ATR trailing band.
Visual Line: A Red Line is drawn at the SL level. You can see it physically step up or down on the chart as the trend progresses.
4. Real-Time Trade Simulation
The script now simulates the lifecycle of a trade directly on the chart:
Active State: When a trade is live, the TP and SL lines extend to the right of the current candle (bar_index + 1), showing you exactly where your exit points are in real-time.
Closed State: Once the price hits either the Green TP line or the Red SL line, the script detects the "Exit." The lines stop extending and turn dotted, indicating that the trade is closed and waiting for the next signal.
Summary of New Settings
You will find a new group in the settings panel called "UT Bot: Trade Management":
TP Risk:Reward Ratio: Adjust this to change how far the Green TP line is placed (e.g., set to 2.0 for 2x return).
Use Trailing SL?: Uncheck this if you want the Red SL line to stay fixed at the initial entry risk level.
avant-hier
Notes de version
1. Live Strategy Performance Dashboard (Backtester)
Since this is an indicator, TradingView does not automatically calculate PnL (Profit and Loss). I have built a custom Simulation Engine inside the script that tracks every UT Bot signal as if you had taken the trade.
Location: Bottom Right of your chart.
Win Rate: Displays the percentage of trades that hit the Take Profit target versus the Stop Loss.
Trades (W/L): Shows the total number of signals generated, broken down by Wins and Losses.
Net Profit (R): Calculates your theoretical profit in "R-Multiples" (Risk Units).
Example: If you set your Risk:Reward to 2.0, every win adds +2R, and every loss subtracts -1R.
Dynamic Colors: The Win Rate and Profit cells turn Neon Cyan if positive (>50% or >0R) and Neon Pink if negative.
2. Multi-Timeframe Trend Dashboard
A new panel at the Top Right gives you an instant "Market Bias" reading so you don't have to scan the whole chart.
SMC Trend: Reads the Smart Money structure (Break of Structure/Change of Character) to determine if the high-level timeframe is BULLISH or BEARISH.
UT Bot Status: Displays the current active signal state:
BUY (Active): You are currently in a Long trade.
SELL (Active): You are currently in a Short trade.
NEUTRAL: No active signal or the last trade hit TP/SL.
3. Integrated Alert System
I have connected the visual lines to the alert system. You can now set a single alert on this indicator, and it will trigger for:
Entry Signals: "UT Long Entry" / "UT Short Entry"
Exits: "Take Profit Hit" / "Stop Loss Hit"
4. Consolidated Settings
To make the script easier to manage, I organized the settings into clear groups:
Dashboards: Toggle the visibility of the new panels or move the Performance Panel to a different corner.
UT Bot: Trade Management: Quickly adjust your Risk:Reward Ratio (e.g., change from 1.5 to 2.0) to see how it affects your Win Rate in real-time on the dashboard.
avant-hier
Notes de version
1. Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Trend Scanner
I have replaced the basic "Market Bias" panel with a comprehensive MTF Trend Dashboard located at the Top Right of your chart.
What it tracks: It simultaneously monitors the trend direction on 5 distinct timeframes:
15 Minute
1 Hour
4 Hour
Daily
Weekly
How it works: It runs a background calculation (using UT Bot settings Key=5, ATR=15) on these higher timeframes without you needing to switch charts.
Visuals:
BULLISH: Highlighted in Neon Cyan.
BEARISH: Highlighted in Neon Pink.
2. Strategic Confluence (How to use it)
This new dashboard transforms the script from a simple "signal generator" into a complete trading system by allowing you to filter trades based on the bigger picture.
The "All-Green" Rule: If you are scalping on a 5-minute chart and you get a BUY signal, check the dashboard. If the 1H, 4H, and Daily are all Neon Cyan (Bullish), that trade has a significantly higher probability of success.
Avoid Counter-Trend Trades: If your main chart says BUY, but the dashboard shows the 4H and Daily are Neon Pink (Bearish), you are trading against the major trend. You might want to skip that trade or reduce your risk size.
3. Summary of Dashboards
You now have two professional-grade panels on your screen:
Bottom Right (Performance): Shows the past results of the strategy on your current timeframe (Win Rate, Profit Factor).
Top Right (Trend): Shows the current state of the market across all timeframes.
SMC_Momentum_Signal## SMC Structure & Momentum Strategy
This indicator is a comprehensive trading tool built on Pine Script v5, utilizing Smart Money Concepts (SMC) combined with trend momentum filters.
### Key Features:
* **Primary Signal (Structure Break):** Identifies potential points of interest based on structural changes (pivots), often associated with Order Blocks or Breaker Blocks.
* **Momentum & Trend Filter:** Uses an 8/21 EMA crossover to define the current trend direction and momentum strength, helping filter out low-probability signals.
* **Dynamic Support/Resistance Zones:** Automatically plots and updates accumulation/distribution zones (Support/Resistance) based on configurable volume lookback periods.
* **Automated Risk Management:** Calculates and plots fixed Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) lines automatically upon entry, based on a user-defined **Risk:Reward Ratio** and volatility (ATR multiplier).
---
**DISCLAIMER:** This tool is intended for educational purposes only. It is not financial advice, and the user should always practice proper risk management. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
P/E, EPS, Price & Price-to-Sales DisplayThis indicator displays key fundamental valuation metrics for the selected stock.
It shows:
Earnings Per Share (EPS)
Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio
Calculated theoretical price based on P/E × EPS
Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio
These values help traders quickly assess valuation without switching to separate financial panels.
🛠 Instructions for Use
Add the indicator to your chart.
Click on the three dots (⋯) next to the indicator name.
Select Move to → New pane above.
Minimize the indicator pane to display only the numerical values.
Hide the plotted lines if you want a clean, numbers-only view.
This setup allows you to monitor fundamental metrics efficiently without cluttering the price chart.
Crypto SupplyThis indicator provides the current crypto token total supply and delta supply. It also provides stable coin current delta supply for comparizon.
You can select the choosen data in the setup. For the token or coin supply you can select to show in token supply or market cap / currency (USD) based supply.
Warning : The time frame selection will provide you the data in the timeframe at the specified date, not the sum over the period. So avoid fixed timeframes from shorter timeframe than the current one.
***CILGIN INDIKATOR***ÇILGIN INDICATOR – User Guide
OVERVIEW
ÇILGIN INDICATOR is a multi-layer trend and momentum confirmation tool designed for discretionary traders.
It combines Relative RSI, EMA structure, SuperTrend logic, Momentum, and optional CCI & ADX filters into a single visual system.
Purpose:
Filter market noise, confirm trend strength, and highlight high-probability Buy / Sell zones.
The indicator works on all symbols and all timeframes.
RELATIVE RSI & MOMENTUM
The indicator can work in two modes:
NORMAL MODE (Formula OFF)
RSI is calculated directly from the chart symbol.
FORMULA MODE (Formula ON)
RSI is calculated from a relative price formula:
Base Symbol / Denominator 1 / Denominator 2
This allows relative strength analysis against indices, sectors, or benchmarks.
RSI SIGNAL LOGIC
RSI Signal Line = SMA of RSI
RSI 50 Level = Trend bias reference
BUY SIGNAL
RSI crosses above the signal line
Optional: RSI must also cross above 50 (Double Confirmation)
SELL SIGNAL
RSI crosses below the signal line
Optional: RSI must also cross below 50
Small arrows on the chart represent RSI-based Buy and Sell signals.
EMA STRUCTURE
Five adaptive EMAs are plotted: EMA 1
EMA 5
EMA 21
EMA 50
EMA 100
EMA lengths automatically adapt to timeframe speed.
EMA BUY LOGIC
Fast EMA crosses above any slower EMA.
EMA SELL LOGIC
Fast EMA crosses below any slower EMA.
EMAs define:
Trend direction
Dynamic support and resistance
Momentum shifts
SUPERTREND SYSTEM
A custom ATR-based SuperTrend is used.
Features:
Optional candle wick usage
Dynamic trailing stop
Visual Buy / Sell labels
SUPERTREND BUY
Trend flips from bearish to bullish.
SUPERTREND SELL
Trend flips from bullish to bearish.
Colored zones visualize the active trend direction.
STRONG BUY & STRONG SELL SIGNALS
A Strong Signal is generated only when multiple conditions agree.
STRONG BUY
RSI Buy Signal
SuperTrend Buy Signal
Optional CCI Filter confirmation
Optional ADX Filter confirmation
STRONG SELL
RSI Sell Signal
SuperTrend Sell Signal
Optional CCI Filter confirmation
Optional ADX Filter confirmation
Strong signals are displayed as large labeled markers: “STRONG BUY”
“STRONG SELL”
Designed for trend-following entries, not market noise.
CCI & ADX FILTERS (OPTIONAL)
CCI FILTER
Buy allowed only if CCI > 0
Sell allowed only if CCI < 0
ADX FILTER
ADX must be above minimum level
Direction confirmed using +DI and -DI
These filters help avoid sideways markets and weak trends.
INFORMATION PANELS
PANEL A (Top Right)
Daily percentage change
Weekly percentage change
Monthly percentage change
Daily volume (millions)
PANEL B (Bottom Right)
Relative RSI value
RSI signal value
Relative momentum
Market status (Bull / Bear)
Provides instant market context without extra indicators.
ALERTS
Built-in alerts are available for:
STRONG BUY
STRONG SELL
Suitable for automation and watchlist monitoring.
BEST PRACTICES
Use Formula Mode for relative strength analysis
Enable CCI & ADX filters on higher timeframes
Combine signals with price action and key levels
Do not use as a standalone trading system
DISCLAIMER
This indicator is a decision-support tool and does not provide financial advice.
Always manage risk and confirm signals with your own analysis.
Angle-able Thick Linean options to get thicker/thick trendlines. personally i dont think 4 pixels is wide enough so i made this, here you go
Daily/Weekly FVG by KrisThis indicator is a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) tool designed to automatically identify and project Fair Value Gaps (Imbalances) from Daily and Weekly timeframes onto your current chart. It helps traders locate higher-timeframe Areas of Interest (POI) and liquidity voids without manually switching charts.
How it works:
The script utilizes `request.security` to fetch High and Low data from Daily and Weekly timeframes. It identifies a Fair Value Gap (FVG) based on the 3-candle formation logic where price moves inefficiently, leaving a gap between the wicks.
- Bullish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly Low is greater than the High of the candle from 2 periods ago.
- Bearish FVG: Identified when the current Daily/Weekly High is lower than the Low of the candle from 2 periods ago.
The indicator draws a box extending to the right to visualize the zone, along with a dotted midline which often acts as a sensitive support/resistance level.
Unique Feature: Smart Mitigation (Auto-Hide)
To keep your chart clean and focused on relevant data, the script includes a "Full Fill" logic. It continuously monitors price action relative to existing FVG boxes.
- If price completely crosses through a box (fully fills the gap), the indicator considers it "mitigated" and automatically hides the box and its midline (sets transparency to 100%).
- This ensures you only see "fresh" or unfilled gaps that are still relevant for trading.
Settings:
- TF Checkboxes (Daily/Weekly FVG): Toggle the visibility of Daily or Weekly gaps independently based on your analysis needs.
- Design Mode:
Colored: Uses classic Green (Bullish) and Red (Bearish) colors for easy trend identification.
Monochrome: Uses Gray tones for a minimalist look that reduces visual noise on the chart.
Usage:
Use these zones to identify potential reversal points or liquidity targets. Since these are higher-timeframe levels, they often carry more weight than intraday imbalances.
KCP Ultimate Supply & Demand Zones [Dr. K.C. Prakash]📊 KCP Ultimate Supply & Demand Zones — Indicator Description
KCP Ultimate Supply & Demand Zones is a professional, non-repainting Smart Money–based indicator designed to identify high-probability institutional Supply and Demand zones with trend confirmation.
It combines price structure, volume expansion, ATR volatility, EMA 200 trend direction, and VWAP alignment to filter only the most reliable zones for intraday and positional trading.
🔑 Core Concept
Markets move due to institutional order flow, not indicators.
This tool detects where institutions likely entered the market and allows traders to trade reactions, breakouts, and retests from those zones — only in the direction of the dominant trend.
⚙️ Key Features
🔴 Supply Zones (Red)
Formed after multiple strong bearish HTF candles
Confirmed with above-average volume
Valid only when price is below EMA 200 & VWAP
Acts as sell / short / resistance zones
🟢 Demand Zones (Green)
Formed after multiple strong bullish HTF candles
Confirmed with volume expansion
Valid only when price is above EMA 200 & VWAP
Acts as buy / long / support zones
GOLD QUANTUM MASTER🥇 GOLD QUANTUM MASTER 🥇
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A high-performance technical analysis suite engineered for institutional-grade precision on Gold (XAUUSD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD). This Core Edition focuses on raw analytical power without external API overhead.
🚀 KEY FEATURES:
• INSTITUTIONAL FOOTPRINT: Advanced volume-to-MA filters to identify "Big Money" participation.
• HTF REVERSAL SCANNER: Specialized logic for 30m, 1H, and 4H charts to detect Pinbar and Engulfing reversals.
• LIQUIDITY FLOW ANALYTICS: Detects and highlights Previous Day High (PDH) and Low (PDL) sweeps.
• TREND EXHAUSTION FILTERS: Built-in RSI divergence logic to prevent entries at trend peaks or bottoms.
• PREMIUM DATA LABELS: Real-time on-chart display of Signal Mode, Quality Score, and dynamic targets.
• NEON VISUAL SYSTEM: High-contrast, glassmorphic layout for maximum clarity during trading sessions.
BEST FOR: Technical Analysts, Manual Traders, and High-Performance Charting.
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The best work on Higher time frames, I still not tested on lower time frames, but should be also precise.
Feel free to adjust the settings to your own needs.
Make your own decisions when you trade, do not put all confidence into a script, it may fail also.
Current High-Low - daily weekly and monthlythis isdicator marks your daily weekly and monthly high and low
Argentina Bonds TIR - Sovereign Bond Yield Curves Indicator# Argentina Bonds TIR
A comprehensive indicator that calculates the Internal Rate of Return (IRR/TIR) for Argentine sovereign bonds and projects future price curves at fixed yield levels.
## Features
**Real-time TIR Calculation**
- Calculates current yield based on market price and expected cashflows
- Uses Newton-Raphson iterative method for precise IRR calculation
- Day count convention: Actual/365 with T+1 settlement
**Automatic Currency Conversion**
- Works with any trading currency: ARS, USD MEP (D suffix), USD Cable (C suffix)
- Automatically converts prices using AL30/AL30D/AL30C ratios
- Bonares use MEP conversion, Globales use Cable conversion
**Yield Curve Projections**
- Projects price curves 150 bars into the future (configurable)
- Fixed TIR lines at 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% (each toggleable)
- Current TIR line showing price trajectory at current yield
- Custom TIR line with user-defined yield value
**Clear Labeling**
- Labels positioned near current date for easy reading (configurable offset)
- Color-coded lines for quick identification
- Info panel showing bond details, prices, TIR, and exchange rates
## Supported Bonds
**Bonares** (Argentina legislation, USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29
**Globales** (Foreign legislation, USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46
## How to Use
1. Apply indicator to any supported bond symbol (e.g., BCBA:AL30D, BCBA:GD35C)
2. The indicator auto-detects bond type and currency
3. View current TIR in the info panel
4. Use projected lines to visualize price targets at different yield levels
5. Toggle individual TIR lines on/off as needed
6. Add a custom TIR line for specific yield analysis
## Settings
**Display**: Show/hide current TIR line, projection bars (30-300), label offset in days
**Fixed TIR Lines**: Individual toggles for 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%
**Custom TIR**: Enable custom TIR line, set value (%), choose color
**Colors**: Customize colors for all lines
## Info Panel
Shows bond ticker, type (Bonar/Global), trading currency, current price, native price, current TIR percentage, MEP and CCL exchange rates.
---
## Español
Indicador que calcula la Tasa Interna de Retorno (TIR) para bonos soberanos argentinos y proyecta curvas de precios futuros a niveles fijos de rendimiento.
### Características
- Cálculo de TIR en tiempo real usando método Newton-Raphson
- Conversión automática de moneda (ARS, USD MEP, USD Cable)
- Líneas de TIR fijas al 7%, 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12%
- Línea de TIR personalizada configurable
- Panel informativo con detalles del bono y tipos de cambio
### Bonos Soportados
- **Bonares** (USD MEP): AE38, AL29, AL30, AL35, AL41, AN29
- **Globales** (USD Cable): GD29, GD30, GD35, GD38, GD41, GD46
---
**DISCLAIMER**: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. Eco Valores S.A. does NOT provide investment advice or recommendations. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
**AVISO LEGAL**: Este indicador es solo para fines informativos y educativos. Eco Valores S.A. NO brinda asesoramiento ni recomendaciones de inversión. Consulte con un asesor financiero calificado antes de invertir.
ICT Levels PDH/PDL/IB/JP/WH/WL/PDCA lightweight reference-level indicator designed for ICT-style execution and prop-evaluation trading.
This script plots only the core, high-signal levels used intraday:
Prior Day High / Low (PDH / PDL)
Initial Balance High / Low (IBH / IBL)
Job Pivot (previous day pivot)
Weekly High / Low
PDC
Right-anchored labels for quick price reference
No signals, no bias — levels only
Auction Context Engine ( Value Area, VWAP & Regime)📌 Indicator Name
Auction Context Engine (Value Area, VWAP & Regime)
Short name: ACE Context
🧠 Description
Auction Context Engine (ACE) is a professional market context and structure indicator based on Auction Market Theory.It is designed to help traders understand where the market is positioned, not to generate trade signals.
ACE focuses on:
• Developing Value Area (VAH / VAL)
• Developing Point of Control (POC)
• Session VWAP positioning
• Volatility regime expansion
• Opening Range context
• Failed auction / trap detection
• Market bias and environment quality
This indicator provides context only and is intended to be used alongside a separate execution strategy or system.
🎯 What This Indicator Is
✔ A context engine
✔ A market structure filter
✔ A bias alignment tool
✔ A regime and environment classifier
❌ What This Indicator Is NOT
✘ Not a signal generator
✘ Not a buy/sell system
✘ Not a strategy
✘ Not a profitability promise
📊 How To Use
Use ACE to answer:
• Is price accepting or rejecting value?
• Is the market in balance or expansion?
• Is VWAP supporting or opposing price?
• Is this a breakout environment or a trap?
• Is volatility expanding?
• Is the market trending or ranging?
You may then use your own execution strategy aligned with this context.
🟢 Core Components
Developing Value Area
• VAH / VAL dynamically update through the session
• POC tracks highest traded volume area
VWAP Position
• Above VWAP = bullish bias
• Below VWAP = bearish bias
Opening Range Context
• Detects breakouts or balance after session open
Volatility Regime
• Identifies expansion vs normal conditions
Failed Auction Detection
• Highlights trap conditions near value extremes
Market Quality
• Strong / Mixed / Weak environment classification
Context Table
• Clean 1-column vertical dashboard with color-coded bias
🔵 Visual Elements
• Developing VAH, VAL, POC lines
• Session VWAP
• Small context dots when environment turns READY
• Compact professional context table
⚙️ Settings
• Value Area bin size
• Value area percentage
• Opening range duration
• Regime expansion factor
• Line colors and thickness
• Context table ON/OFF
• Context dots ON/OFF
🧩 Best Use Case
This indicator is ideal for:
• Intraday trading
• Index futures and equities
• Options context filtering
• Trend / range regime identification
• Professional discretionary traders
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and informational purposes only.It does not constitute financial or investment advice.Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
Global Sovereign Spread MonitorIn the summer of 2011, the yield on Italian government bonds rose dramatically while German Bund yields fell to historic lows. This divergence, measured as the BTP-Bund spread, reached nearly 550 basis points in November of that year, signaling what would become the most severe test of the European monetary union since its inception. Portfolio managers who monitored this spread had days, sometimes weeks, of advance warning before equity markets crashed. Those who ignored it suffered significant losses.
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor is built on a simple but powerful observation that has been validated repeatedly in academic literature: sovereign bond spreads contain forward-looking information about systemic risk that is not fully reflected in equity prices (Longstaff et al., 2011). When investors demand higher yields to hold peripheral government debt relative to safe-haven bonds, they are expressing a view about credit risk, liquidity conditions, and the probability of systemic stress. This information, when properly analyzed, provides actionable signals for traders across all asset classes.
The Science of Sovereign Spreads
The academic study of government bond yield differentials began in earnest following the creation of the European Monetary Union. Codogno, Favero and Missale (2003) published what remains one of the foundational papers in this field, examining why yields on government bonds within a currency union should differ at all. Their analysis, published in Economic Policy, identified two primary drivers: credit risk and liquidity. Countries with higher debt-to-GDP ratios and weaker fiscal positions commanded higher yields, but importantly, these spreads widened dramatically during periods of market stress even when fundamentals had not changed significantly.
This observation led to a crucial insight that Favero, Pagano and von Thadden (2010) explored in depth in the Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. They found that liquidity effects can amplify credit risk during stress periods, creating a feedback loop where rising spreads reduce liquidity, which in turn pushes spreads even higher. This dynamic explains why sovereign spreads often move in non-linear fashion, remaining stable for extended periods before suddenly widening rapidly.
Longstaff, Pan, Pedersen and Singleton (2011) extended this research in their American Economic Review paper by examining the relationship between sovereign credit default swap spreads and bond spreads across multiple countries. Their key finding was that a significant portion of sovereign credit risk is driven by global factors rather than country-specific fundamentals. This means that when spreads widen in Italy, it often reflects broader risk aversion that will eventually affect other asset classes including equities and corporate bonds.
The practical implication of this research is clear: sovereign spreads function as a leading indicator for systemic risk. Aizenman, Hutchison and Jinjarak (2013) confirmed this in their analysis of European sovereign debt default probabilities, finding that spread movements preceded rating downgrades and provided earlier warning signals than traditional fundamental analysis.
How the Indicator Works
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor translates these academic findings into a systematic framework for monitoring credit conditions. The indicator calculates yield differentials between peripheral government bonds and German Bunds, which serve as the benchmark safe-haven asset in European markets. Italian ten-year yields minus German ten-year yields produce the BTP-Bund spread, the single most important metric for Eurozone stress. Spanish yields minus German yields produce the Bonos-Bund spread, providing a secondary confirmation signal. The transatlantic US-Bund spread captures divergence between the two major safe-haven markets.
Raw spreads are converted to Z-scores, which measure how many standard deviations the current spread is from its historical average over the lookback period. This normalization is essential because absolute spread levels vary over time with interest rate cycles and structural changes in sovereign debt markets. A spread of 150 basis points might have been concerning in 2007 but entirely normal in 2023 following the European debt crisis and subsequent ECB interventions.
The composite index combines these individual Z-scores using weights that reflect the relative importance of each spread for global risk assessment. Italy receives the highest weight because it represents the third-largest sovereign bond market globally and any Italian debt crisis would have systemic implications for the entire Eurozone. Spain provides confirmation of peripheral stress, while the US-Bund spread captures flight-to-quality dynamics between the two primary safe-haven markets.
Regime classification transforms the continuous Z-score into discrete states that correspond to different market environments. The Stress regime indicates that spreads have widened to levels historically associated with crisis periods. The Elevated regime signals rising risk aversion that warrants increased attention. Normal conditions represent typical spread behavior, while the Calm regime may actually signal complacency and potential mean-reversion opportunities.
Retail Trader Applications
For individual traders without access to institutional research teams, the Global Sovereign Spread Monitor provides a window into the macro environment that typically remains opaque. The most immediate application is risk management for equity positions.
Consider a trader holding a diversified portfolio of European stocks. When the composite Z-score rises above 1.0 and enters the Elevated regime, historical data suggests an increased probability of equity market drawdowns in the coming days to weeks. This does not mean the trader must immediately liquidate all positions, but it does suggest reducing position sizes, tightening stop-losses, or adding hedges such as put options or inverse ETFs.
The BTP-Bund spread specifically provides actionable information for anyone trading EUR/USD or European equity indices. Research by De Grauwe and Ji (2013) demonstrated that sovereign spreads and currency movements are closely linked during stress periods. When the BTP-Bund spread widens sharply, the Euro typically weakens against the Dollar as investors question the sustainability of the monetary union. A retail forex trader can use the indicator to time entries into EUR/USD short positions or to exit long positions before spread-driven selloffs occur.
The regime classification system simplifies decision-making for traders who cannot constantly monitor multiple data feeds. When the dashboard displays Stress, it is time to adopt a defensive posture regardless of what individual stock charts might suggest. When it displays Calm, the trader knows that risk appetite is elevated across institutional markets, which typically supports equity prices but also means that any negative catalyst could trigger a sharp reversal.
Mean-reversion signals provide opportunities for more active traders. When spreads reach extreme levels in either direction, they tend to revert toward their historical average. A Z-score above 2.0 that begins declining suggests professional investors are starting to buy peripheral debt again, which historically precedes broader risk-on behavior. A Z-score below minus 1.0 that starts rising may indicate that complacency is ending and risk-off positioning is beginning.
The key for retail traders is to use the indicator as a filter rather than a primary signal generator. If technical analysis suggests a long entry in European stocks, check the sovereign spread regime first. If spreads are elevated or rising, the technical setup becomes higher risk. If spreads are stable or compressing, the technical signal has a higher probability of success.
Professional Applications
Institutional investors use sovereign spread analysis in more sophisticated ways that go beyond simple risk filtering. Systematic macro funds incorporate spread data into quantitative models that generate trading signals across multiple asset classes simultaneously.
Portfolio managers at large asset allocators use sovereign spreads to make strategic allocation decisions. When the composite Z-score trends higher over several weeks, they reduce exposure to peripheral European equities and bonds while increasing allocations to German Bunds, US Treasuries, and other safe-haven assets. This rotation often happens before explicit risk-off signals appear in equity markets, giving these investors a performance advantage.
Fixed income specialists at banks and hedge funds use sovereign spreads for relative value trades. When the BTP-Bund spread widens to historically elevated levels but fundamentals have not deteriorated proportionally, they may go long Italian government bonds and short German Bunds, betting on mean reversion. These trades require careful risk management because spreads can widen further before reversing, but when properly sized they offer attractive risk-adjusted returns.
Risk managers at financial institutions use sovereign spread monitoring as an input to Value-at-Risk models and stress testing frameworks. Elevated spreads indicate higher correlation among risk assets, which means diversification benefits are reduced precisely when they are needed most. This information feeds into position sizing decisions across the entire trading book.
Currency traders at proprietary trading firms incorporate sovereign spreads into their EUR/USD and EUR/CHF models. The relationship between the BTP-Bund spread and EUR weakness is well-documented in academic literature and provides a systematic edge when combined with other factors such as interest rate differentials and positioning data.
Central bank watchers use sovereign spreads to anticipate policy responses. The European Central Bank has demonstrated repeatedly that it will intervene when spreads reach levels that threaten financial stability, most notably through the Outright Monetary Transactions program announced in 2012 and the Transmission Protection Instrument introduced in 2022. Understanding spread dynamics helps investors anticipate these interventions and position accordingly.
Interpreting the Dashboard
The statistics panel provides real-time information that supports both quick assessments and deeper analysis. The composite Z-score is the primary metric, representing the weighted average of all spread Z-scores. Values above zero indicate spreads are wider than their historical average, while values below zero indicate compression. The magnitude matters: a reading of 0.5 suggests modestly elevated stress, while 2.0 or higher indicates conditions similar to historical crisis periods.
The regime classification translates the Z-score into actionable categories. Stress should trigger immediate review of risk exposure and consideration of hedges. Elevated warrants increased vigilance and potentially reduced position sizes. Normal indicates no immediate concerns from sovereign markets. Calm suggests risk appetite may be elevated, which supports risk assets but also creates potential for sharp reversals if sentiment changes.
The percentile ranking provides historical context by showing where the current Z-score falls within its distribution over the lookback period. A reading of 90 percent means spreads are wider than they have been 90 percent of the time over the past year, which is significant even if the absolute Z-score is not extreme. This metric helps identify when spreads are creeping higher before they reach official stress thresholds.
Momentum indicates whether spreads are widening or compressing. Rising momentum during elevated spread conditions is particularly concerning because it suggests stress is accelerating. Falling momentum during stress suggests the worst may be past and mean reversion could be beginning.
Individual spread readings allow traders to identify which component is driving the composite signal. If the BTP-Bund spread is elevated but Bonos-Bund remains normal, the stress may be Italy-specific rather than systemic. If all spreads are widening together, the signal reflects broader flight-to-quality that affects all risk assets.
The bias indicator provides a simple summary for traders who need quick guidance. Risk-Off means spreads indicate defensive positioning is appropriate. Risk-On means spread conditions support risk-taking. Neutral means spreads provide no clear directional signal.
Limitations and Risk Factors
No indicator provides perfect signals, and sovereign spread analysis has specific limitations that users must understand. The European Central Bank has demonstrated its willingness to intervene in sovereign bond markets when spreads threaten financial stability. The Transmission Protection Instrument announced in 2022 specifically targets situations where spreads widen beyond levels justified by fundamentals. This creates a floor under peripheral bond prices and means that extremely elevated spreads may not persist as long as historical patterns would suggest.
Political events can cause sudden spread movements that are impossible to anticipate. Elections, government formation crises, and policy announcements can move spreads by 50 basis points or more in a single session. The indicator will reflect these moves but cannot predict them.
Liquidity conditions in sovereign bond markets can temporarily distort spread readings, particularly around quarter-end and year-end when banks adjust their balance sheets. These technical factors can cause spread widening or compression that does not reflect fundamental credit risk.
The relationship between sovereign spreads and other asset classes is not constant over time. During some periods, spread movements lead equity moves by several days. During others, both markets move simultaneously. The indicator provides valuable information about credit conditions, but users should not expect mechanical relationships between spread signals and subsequent price moves in other markets.
Conclusion
The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor represents a systematic application of academic research on sovereign credit risk to practical trading decisions. The indicator monitors yield differentials between peripheral and safe-haven government bonds, normalizes these spreads using statistical methods, and classifies market conditions into regimes that correspond to different risk environments.
For retail traders, the indicator provides risk management information that was previously available only to institutional investors with access to Bloomberg terminals and dedicated research teams. By checking the sovereign spread regime before executing trades, individual investors can avoid taking excessive risk during periods of elevated credit stress.
For professional investors, the indicator offers a standardized framework for monitoring sovereign credit conditions that can be integrated into broader macro models and risk management systems. The real-time calculation of Z-scores, regime classifications, and component spreads provides the inputs needed for systematic trading strategies.
The academic foundation is robust, built on peer-reviewed research published in top finance and economics journals over the past two decades. The practical applications have been validated through multiple market cycles including the European debt crisis of 2011-2012, the COVID-19 shock of 2020, and the rate normalization stress of 2022.
Sovereign spreads will continue to provide valuable forward-looking information about systemic risk for as long as credit conditions vary across countries and investors respond rationally to changes in default probabilities. The Global Sovereign Spread Monitor makes this information accessible and actionable for traders at all levels of sophistication.
References
Aizenman, J., Hutchison, M. and Jinjarak, Y. (2013) What is the Risk of European Sovereign Debt Defaults? Fiscal Space, CDS Spreads and Market Pricing of Risk. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 37-59.
Codogno, L., Favero, C. and Missale, A. (2003) Yield Spreads on EMU Government Bonds. Economic Policy, 18(37), pp. 503-532.
De Grauwe, P. and Ji, Y. (2013) Self-Fulfilling Crises in the Eurozone: An Empirical Test. Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, pp. 15-36.
Favero, C., Pagano, M. and von Thadden, E.L. (2010) How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields? Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(1), pp. 107-134.
Longstaff, F.A., Pan, J., Pedersen, L.H. and Singleton, K.J. (2011) How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk? American Economic Review, 101(6), pp. 2191-2212.
Manganelli, S. and Wolswijk, G. (2009) What Drives Spreads in the Euro Area Government Bond Market? Economic Policy, 24(58), pp. 191-240.
Arghyrou, M.G. and Kontonikas, A. (2012) The EMU Sovereign-Debt Crisis: Fundamentals, Expectations and Contagion. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 22(4), pp. 658-677.
Engulfing Reversal PatternThe Engulfing Reversal Pattern indicator seeks out both bullish and bearish reversal patterns. This indicator offers the user numerous options to modify the indicator to their needs.
Key features:
Ability to adjust the size of the Engulfing candle in comparison to the prior candle
Ability to adjust the number of breakout candles
Indicator adapts to the Time Frame it is being used in
You can choose between identifying only Bearish patterns, only Bullish patterns or both.
Indicator Arrow size can be adjusted in size.
CBDR Standard Deviation V2CBDR
Standard Deviation measures how far price statistically deviates from the central bank dealer range before institutional rebalancing occurs. CBDR defines fair value, while standard deviation highlights liquidity expansion zones. Moves into ±2 SD or beyond often signal stop-loss sweeps and inventory imbalance, where institutions favor mean reversion, not breakouts.
CBDR SD Core Checklist
□ Daily IPDA bias defined
□ Clean CBDR formed (Asia / early London)
□ CBDR high & low marked
□ ±1 and ±2 SD levels plotted
□ Liquidity sweep beyond CBDR
□ No high-impact news in session
CBDR SD Reversal Trade Checklist
□ Price taps ±2 SD or ±2.5 SD
□ Clear rejection (wick / displacement)
□ Entry against the expansion, not on breakout
□ Stop placed beyond liquidity extreme
□ TP1: CBDR boundary
□ TP2: CBDR midpoint (mean)
□ TP3 (optional): Opposite CBDR extreme
□ Invalidate if strong trend displacement continues
This reversal model captures institutional fade trades after liquidity is harvested, keeping execution statistical, disciplined, and prop-firm resilient.
ZTC Key Levels IndicatorPick the levels of your likely and set bias for and entry levels for your needs.
Advanced Concept V4 Change your trading time zone to New York . To maximize readiness for institutional trading setups based on the prescribed models, traders should set alarms for specific times in the New York Time Zone (EST/EDT), which is generally 10.5 hours behind IST.
Asian Stop Hunt Model
The Stop Hunt Model is a liquidity-based strategy designed to exploit market stop-loss sweeps by aligning with the IPDA daily bias. The core idea is to wait for price to sweep the engineered liquidity of the Asian Session High or Low (after 10:30 AM IST). Once the sweep occurs, the trader confirms the market's true direction via a Change of Character (CHoCH) on the lower timeframe. The entry is then taken only on a retest of the resulting price inefficiency, specifically a Balanced Price Range (BPR) or imbalance, which represents the institutional entry point. By targeting the next major liquidity pool with a minimum 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio, the model prioritizes discipline and quality over frequent trading.
The New York Open Model
The New York Open Model is an index-focused strategy (SPX500, NAS100, US30) that trades solely during the New York Session (9:30 AM – 12:30 PM NYT). It establishes a Range Zone high and low from midnight until the open, treating these boundaries as institutional liquidity targets. Execution is triggered by a mandatory liquidity sweep of one side of this range, followed by a confirming Change of Character (CHoCH) on the 1-minute chart. Entry is taken precisely on the retest of a resulting price inefficiency (like an FVG), aiming for the opposite side of the session range, prioritizing simplicity, timing, and controlled risk over external biases like IPDA.
The ATM Strategy
The ATM Strategy is a high-precision, New York-session trading model designed to capture institutional liquidity moves using the IPDA directional bias. The strategy operates by first defining a Range Zone (00:00 to 8:30 AM NY time) where high and low boundaries act as liquidity targets. Execution is restricted to the Trading Zone (8:30AM to 12:30 PM NY time) and is only triggered when price executes a mandatory liquidity sweep of one range boundary that aligns with the IPDA bias. This sweep must then be confirmed on the 1-minute chart by a Change of Character (CHoCH). Final entry is taken on the retest of a resulting price inefficiency (like an FVG or BPR), with targets set at session highs or lows, ensuring institutional-style execution with high clarity and discipline.
The Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR)
The Central Bank Dealer Range (CBDR) model is a disciplined, institutional trading strategy used on the 15-minute chart, primarily focusing on London Session liquidity for major currency pairs. The core idea is to align with Interbank Price Delivery Algorithm (IPDA) bias, which dictates a mandatory liquidity sweep (a false breakout of the previous day's high or low) must occur first. Following this sweep, a visible price imbalance (Fair Value Gap) must form within the London Session. Entry is strictly taken only on the retest of this imbalance zone, confirming institutional order flow, with a fixed target at the opposite boundary of the previous day's range.






















