Jurik Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB) on EMA [Loxx]Jurik Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB) on EMA is an exponential moving average with adaptive price trend duration inputs. This purpose of this indicator is to introduce the formulas for the calculation Composite Fractal Behavior. As you can see from the chart above, price reacts wildly to shifts in volatility--smoothing out substantially while riding a volatility wave and cutting sharp corners when volatility drops. Notice the chop zone on BTC around August 2021, this was a time of extremely low relative volatility.
This indicator uses three previous indicators from my public scripts. These are:
JCFBaux Volatility
Jurik Filter
Jurik Volty
The CFB is also related to the following indicator
Jurik Velocity ("smoother moment")
Now let's dive in...
What is Composite Fractal Behavior (CFB)?
All around you mechanisms adjust themselves to their environment. From simple thermostats that react to air temperature to computer chips in modern cars that respond to changes in engine temperature, r.p.m.'s, torque, and throttle position. It was only a matter of time before fast desktop computers applied the mathematics of self-adjustment to systems that trade the financial markets.
Unlike basic systems with fixed formulas, an adaptive system adjusts its own equations. For example, start with a basic channel breakout system that uses the highest closing price of the last N bars as a threshold for detecting breakouts on the up side. An adaptive and improved version of this system would adjust N according to market conditions, such as momentum, price volatility or acceleration.
Since many systems are based directly or indirectly on cycles, another useful measure of market condition is the periodic length of a price chart's dominant cycle, (DC), that cycle with the greatest influence on price action.
The utility of this new DC measure was noted by author Murray Ruggiero in the January '96 issue of Futures Magazine. In it. Mr. Ruggiero used it to adaptive adjust the value of N in a channel breakout system. He then simulated trading 15 years of D-Mark futures in order to compare its performance to a similar system that had a fixed optimal value of N. The adaptive version produced 20% more profit!
This DC index utilized the popular MESA algorithm (a formulation by John Ehlers adapted from Burg's maximum entropy algorithm, MEM). Unfortunately, the DC approach is problematic when the market has no real dominant cycle momentum, because the mathematics will produce a value whether or not one actually exists! Therefore, we developed a proprietary indicator that does not presuppose the presence of market cycles. It's called CFB (Composite Fractal Behavior) and it works well whether or not the market is cyclic.
CFB examines price action for a particular fractal pattern, categorizes them by size, and then outputs a composite fractal size index. This index is smooth, timely and accurate
Essentially, CFB reveals the length of the market's trending action time frame. Long trending activity produces a large CFB index and short choppy action produces a small index value. Investors have found many applications for CFB which involve scaling other existing technical indicators adaptively, on a bar-to-bar basis.
What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter?
One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive.
What is the Jurik Moving Average?
Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines.
Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun.
Modifications and improvements
1. Jurik's original calculation for CFB only allowed for depth lengths of 24, 48, 96, and 192. For theoretical purposes, this indicator allows for up to 20 different depth inputs to sample volatility. These depth lengths are
2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 16, 24, 32, 48, 64, 96, 128, 192, 256, 384, 512, 768, 1024, 1536
Including these additional length inputs is arguable useless, but they are are included for completeness of the algorithm.
2. The result of the CFB calculation is forced to be an integer greater than or equal to 1.
3. The result of the CFB calculation is double filtered using an advanced, (and adaptive itself) filtering algorithm called the Jurik Filter. This filter and accompanying internal algorithm are discussed above.
历史波动率(HV)
Sentient levelThe indicator presented here is made based on the study published on NSE:INDIAVIX . Basically it shows 2 sigma (by default) trading ranges of the next day (by default) of indices e.g. NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY . Everyday three new lines get plotted automatically on the chart of the instrument (preferably NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY ) you want to trade. Generally it's expected that the index to be traded within the ranges however in case of major gap-up or gap-down if the index opens above the higher range or below the lower range then it's assumed that the day to remain very volatile. This three lines can be considered as important support/resistance . Default parameters are set in consideration of day trading however user can modify them manually as per their trading style.
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Historical Volatility RatioHistorical volatility is an indicator of the extent to which a price may diverge from its average in a given period. Hence, increased price fluctuation results in a higher historical volatility value. It is important to keep in mind that the historical volatility figure does not indicate the price direction but rather how unstable a price is.
Volatility is generally a measure of the riskiness of an investment. Increased volatility serves as an indication of increased uncertainty and risk. The opposite is also true; decreased volatility serves as an indication for lowered uncertainty and risk. As commonly expected in financial instrument trading, HV can be used along with other trading patterns, trends, and other indicators to identify instruments that they consider to be risky or highly volatile.
Historical volatility can be utilized as an instrument by traders who only trade underlying financial instruments. Measuring the instability of a market can impact the expectation of an investor on how much or to what extent the market may change and offers some guidance in making price forecasts and executing a trade.
A high volatility can imply a possible change of trend when aggressive buying/selling enters the market because the large transaction volumes will trigger notable price reversals.
Furthermore, historical volatility does not assess the probability of loss primarily, even though it can be used to provide an indication thereof.
HV can be used to assess by how much the price of a security shifts from its average value. In markets where a predominant trend exists, historical volatility provides an overview of the extent to which traded prices may have deviated from a central or moving average price. In smooth markets with a strong predominant trend, low volatility levels can be expected even though prices may fluctuate drastically as time passes.
This version is just a smoother version of standard HV. This is achieved by dividing HV of 2 different periods.
trailing_drawdown
Description:
Drawdown was a tool to measure historical risk, derived from measuring current wealth from its previous peak, casually from portfolio construction (weights allocation), will consider to having a minimum drawdown. In this indicator, the drawdown for individual assets is utilized to measure its value or percentage from its trailing peak (default to 1-yr period).
Drawdown:
drawdown = (price/peaks)-1
Feature:
Static: display drawdown as percentage
Dynamic: display drawdown as value
Index Reversal Range with Volatility Index or VIXWhat is the Indicator?
• The indicator is a visualization of maximum price in which the respective index can go up to in comparison with it's Volatility Index or VIX.
Who to use?
• Intraday
• Swing
• Position
• Long term Investors
• Futures
• Options
• Portfolio Managers
• Mutual Fund Managers
• Index Traders
• Volatility based Traders
• Long term Investors and Options Traders gets the maximum benefit
What timeframe to use?
• 1 Year: Position & Investors
• 6 Months: Position & Investors
• 3 Months: Swing & Position
• 1 Month: Swing & Position
• 1 Week: Swing
• 1 Day: Swing
• 1 Hour: Intraday & Swing
What are Upper and Lower lines?
• Upper Line: If the index price reach closer to the Upper line there is a high chance of reversal to Bearish trend.
• Lower Line: If the index price reach closer to the Lower line there is a high chance of reversal to Bullish trend.
• This need to be confirmed with multiple levels like Daily, Weekly, Monthly etc.
How to use?
• If the price reach closer to that level there is a high chance of reversal from the current trend.
• To identify the reversal zone of the index.
• To identify the trend.
• Option Traders can Sell a Call or Put Option from that level.
• Long term Investors, Position or Swing traders can plan for a Long entry.
• Intraday traders can use lower timeframes to do the same.
Indicator Menu
• Input VIX: Identify the VIX Symbol of your Index and type it in the box.
• For example for NIFTY Index chart type INDIAVIX in the box.
• Choose multiple timeframes according to your convenience.
How to turn on indicator Name and Value labels?
• Right side of the screen >
• Right click on the Price scale >
• Labels > Indicators and financial name labels, Indicators and financial value labels
Further Reading:
• Various videos and reading materials are available about this method.
ATR with MAOVERVIEW
The Average True Range Moving Average (ATRMA) is a technical indicator that gauges the amount of volatility currently present in the market, relative to the historical average volatility that was present before. It adds a moving average to the Average True Range (ATR) indicator.
This indicator is extremely similar to the VOXI indicator, but instead of measuring volume, it measures volatility. Volume measures the amount of shares/lots/units/contracts exchanged per unit of time. Volatility, on the other hand, measures the range of price movement per unit of time.
The purpose of this indicator is to help traders filter between non-volatile periods in the market from volatile periods in the market without introducing subjectivity. It can also help long-term investors to determine market regime using volatility without introducing subjectivity.
CONCEPTS
This indicator assumes that trends are more likely to start during periods of high volatility, and consolidation is more likely to persist during periods of low volatility. The indicator also assumes that the average true range (ATR) of the last 14 candles is reflective of the current volatility in the market. ATR is the average height of all the candles, where height = |high - low|.
Suppose the ATR of the last 14 candles is greater than a moving average of the ATR(14) of the last 20 candles (this occurs whenever the indicator's filled region is colored BLUE). In that case, we can assume that the current volatility in the market is high.
Suppose the ATR of the last 14 candles is less than the moving average of the ATR(14) of the last 20 candles (this occurs whenever the indicator's filled region is colored RED). In that case, we can assume that the current volatility in the market is low.
HOW DO I READ THIS INDICATOR?
If the ATR line is above the ATR MA line (indicated by the blue color), the current volatility is greater than the historical average volatility.
If the ATR line is above the ATR MA line (indicated by the red color), the current volatility is less than the historical average volatility.
EWMA Implied Volatility based on Historical VolatilityVolatility is the most common measure of risk.
Volatility in this sense can either be historical volatility (one observed from past data), or it could implied volatility (observed from market prices of financial instruments.)
The main objective of EWMA is to estimate the next-day (or period) volatility of a time series and closely track the volatility as it changes.
The EWMA model allows one to calculate a value for a given time on the basis of the previous day's value.
The EWMA model has an advantage in comparison with SMA, because the EWMA has a memory.
The EWMA remembers a fraction of its past by a factor A, that makes the EWMA a good indicator of the history of the price movement if a wise choice of the term is made.
Full details regarding the formula :
www.investopedia.com
In this scenario, we are looking at the historical volatility using the anual length of 252 trading days and a monthly length of 21.
Once we apply all of that we are going to get the yearly volatility.
After that we just have to divide that by the square root of number of days in a year, or weeks in a year or months in a year in order to get the daily/weekly/monthly expected volatility.
Once we have the expected volatility, we can estimate with a high chance where the market top and bottom is going to be and continue our analysis on that premise.
If you have any questions, please let me know !
LS Volatility Index█ OVERVIEW
This indicator serves to measure the volatility of the price in relation to the average.
It serves four purposes:
1. Identify abnormal prices, extremely stretched in relation to an average;
2. Identify acceptable prices in the context of the main trend;
3. Identify market crashes;
4. Identify divergences.
█ CONCEPTS
The LS Volatility Index was originally described by Brazilian traders Alexandre Wolwacz (Stormer) , Fabrício Lorenz , and Fábio Figueiredo (Vlad)
Basically, this indicator can be used in two ways:
1. In a mean reversion strategy , when there is an unusual distance from it;
2. In a trend following strategy , when the price is in an acceptable region.
Perhaps the version presented here may have some slight differences, but the core is the same.
The original indicator is presented with a 21-period moving average, but here this value is customizable.
I made some fine tuning available, namely:
1. The possibility of smoothing the indicator;
2. Choose the type of moving average;
3. Customizable period;
4. Possibility to show a moving average of the indicator;
5. Color customization.
█ CALCULATION
First, the distance of the price from a given average in percentage terms is measured.
Then, the historical average volatility is obtained.
Finally the indicator is calculated through the ratio between the distance and the historical volatility.
To facilitate visualization, the result is normalized in a range from 0 to 100.
When it reaches 0, it means the price is on average.
When it hits 100, it means the price is way off average (stretched).
█ HOW TO USE IT
Here are some examples:
1. In a return-to-average strategy
2. In a trend following strategy
3. Identification of crashes and divergences
█ THANKS AND CREDITS
- Alexandre Wolwacz (Stormer), Fabrício Lorenz, Fábio Figueiredo (Vlad)
- Feature scaler (for normalization)
- HPotter (for calc of Historical Volatility)
Volatility Calculator for Daily Top and Bottom RangeWith the usage of ATR, applied on the close of the daily candle, I am calculated the volatility channels for the TOP and BOTTOM
Based on this logic, we can estimate, with a huge confidence factor, where the prices are going to be compressed for the trading day.
Having said that, lets take a look at the data gathered among the most important financial markets:
SPX
TOP CROSSES : 2116
BOT CROSSES : 1954
Total Daily Candles : 18908
Occurance ratio = 0.215
NDX
TOP CROSSES : 1212
BOT CROSSES : 1183
Total Daily Candles : 9386
Occurance ratio = 0.255
DIA
TOP CROSSES : 759
BOT CROSSES : 769
Total Daily Candles : 6109
Occurance ratio = 0.25
DXY
TOP CROSSES : 1597
BOT CROSSES : 1598
Total Daily Candles : 13156
Occurance ratio = 0.243
DAX
TOP CROSSES : 1878
BOT CROSSES : 1848
Total Daily Candles : 13155
Occurance ratio = 0.283
BTC USD
TOP CROSSES : 416
BOT CROSSES : 417
Total Daily Candles : 4290
Occurance ratio = 0.194
ETH USD
TOP CROSSES : 247
BOT CROSSES : 268
Total Daily Candles : 2452
Occurance ratio = 0.21
EUR USD
TOP CROSSES : 820
BOT CROSSES : 805
Total Daily Candles : 7489
Occurance ratio = 0.217
GOLD
TOP CROSSES : 1722
BOT CROSSES : 1569
Total Daily Candles : 13747
Occurance ratio = 0.239
USOIL
TOP CROSSES : 1077
BOT CROSSES : 1089
Total Daily Candles : 10231
Occurance ratio = 0.212
US 10Y
TOP CROSSES : 1302
BOT CROSSES : 1365
Total Daily Candles : 9075
Occurance ratio = 0.294
Based on this, we can assume with a very high confidence ( 70-80%) that the market is going to stay, within the range created from the BOT and TOP ATR points.
ATR and IV Volatility TableThis is a volatility tool designed to get the daily bottom and top values calculated using a daily ATR and IV values.
ATR values can be calculated directly, however for IV I recommend to take the values from external sources for the asset that you want to trade.
Regarding of the usage, I always recommend to go at the end of the previous close day of the candle(with replay function) or beginning of the daily open candle and get the expected values for movements.
For example for 26April for SPX, we have an ATR of 77 points and the close of the candle was 4296.
So based on ATR for 27 April our TOP is going to be 4296 + 77 , while our BOT is going to be 4296-77
At the same time lets assume the IV for today is going to be around 25% -> this is translated to 25 / (sqrt (252)) = 1.57 aprox
So based on IV our TOP is going to be 4296 + 4296 * 0.0157 , while our BOT is going to be 4296 - 4296 * 0.0157
I found out from my calculations that 80-85% of the times these bot and top points act as an amazing support and resistence points for day trading, so I fully recommend you to start including them into your analysis.
If you have any questions let me know !
IR% - Intraday Range (% or $)Shows the percentage difference between the High and Low of the price bar expressed as a percent of the Open of that bar. In the settings, you can change to Price Change instead of percent change. This will show the price change between the High and Low for each price bar.
It can be used on any time frame.
I use it on the daily chart . I note the daily figure, and that lets me know how far the price tends to move during a typical day (no gaps included).
If using on another time frame other than the daily, then it is an intrabar calculation, not intraday.
Apply a moving average to it to see the average intraday movement after the open when using a daily chart .
The IR% of a 1-minute chart tells you the price range of that one-minute price bar, and a weekly chart will show the price range of each weekly price bar.
It only measures high to low versus the candle's open price. It does not include gaps between candles, which makes it different than the ATR. ATR is more useful for swing trading, where the trader may be holding through gaps in price, and thus wants to factor them in.
The IR% is useful for day traders because it shows how much a stock tends to move during the day (intraday range), when using a daily chart . ATR is not as effective for this because it includes gaps, which day traders can't generally capitalize on.
If the IR% is fluctuating between 5% and 10% over the last 50 days or so (on the daily chart ), day traders know that AFTER the open, the price is likely to move 5% to 10% from high point to low point. This can help with establishing profit targets, seeking out stocks that tend to move a lot within the day, or avoid these types of stocks if they are undesirable to you. Seek out low IR% stocks if you prefer lower movement during your selected time frame.
A stock may have an ATR% of 5% but ATR doesn't tell us if that movement occurred after the open or includes a gap. Some stocks are prone to gaps. They may gap 4% most days, and then only move 1% during the day. This will still be a 5% ATR%, but most of that movement ISN'T capturable each day. The IR% for this stock would only be 1%, not 5% like the ATR suggests.
I developed this because I like day trading volatile stocks, and I wanted a measure that ONLY includes movement during the day, and doesn't include price gaps in the calculation. Because as a day trader, gaps don't matter to me. I can only make money on what happens during the day, after the open.
It is similar to another indicator called Average Day Range (ADR). Although most ADR calculations are already calculated as an average (so I don't see each individual value) or plots things on the chart. This may be useful for some people, but I wanted to see the data on each price bar, have the option to add a moving average or not, and not have anything plotted on the price chart. It also nice to be able to flip from % to $ dollar movement if desired.
Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS :
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
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ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS :
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
intraday_bondsStatistics for assisting with intraday bond trading, using five minute periods and one hour ranges. There are two tables, a volatility table and a correlation table. The correlation table shows the correlation of five minute returns (absolute) between the four different bond contracts that trade on the CME. The volatility table shows for each contract:
- The current realized volatility, based on the previous one hour of realized volatility. This figure is annualized for easy comparison with options contracts.
- The current realized volatility's z-score, based on all available data.
- The tick range of an "N" standard deviation move over one hour. Choose "N" using the stdevs input.
- The previous hour's true range (high - low).
The ranges are expressed in ticks.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 index options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the indices (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS:
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 implied volatility I used their volatility indices: VIX and VXN (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de los índices S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el S&P500 y el Nasdaq-100 (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los índices (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS:
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de S&P500 y Nasdaq-100 utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: VIX y VXN (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Nearest Percentile Moving Average BandsWhile coding some filters into another indicator for Long/Short I noticed that ta.nearest.percentile might be the most useful tool in pinescript I've ever encountered.
While percentile_nearest can be used for all kind of things I decided to code moving averages from it and made bands for bottom percentage and top percentage.
The indicator will calculate the top % price of the given bar length.
Example settings:
length: 150
percentile: 99
So when using 99% it will draw a green line when price is moving above the top 1% price of the last 150 candles. It then calculates if the price is below the bottom 1% of the last 150 candles.
Trading use:
Use this indicator to check if the market is leaving normal territory. This signals a breakout move for example the dogecoin pump or the top of the range. I use this indicator to catch bull/bear moves for botting purposes. An other use would be to countertrend trade after the move has ended. With price being in top 1% for a while it is very probable that we see a large correction.
Below example of dogecoin pumps:
SVDThis indicator aims to compare between two charts if trader isn't sure which one is more active and powerful, it does NOT show entries or help your chart analysis directly.
The main features of this indicator is to show vitality and range of any given chart.
Volatility: it calculates the average profit of every swing in the range and the final result will be the chart volatility, which indicate how profitable this chart is.
Range: it calculates the profit of the whole range compared to the total price. (E.g. range bottom is 0.1 and range top is 0.2 the range will be 100%)
Extra: indicator shows the total direction of the chart in term of (STRONG UPTREND, UPTREND, SIDEWAYS, DOWNTREND, STRONG DOWNTREND), if you got (Somthing_wrong) please contact me.
How to use: apply the indicator on different charts that you have chosen and the higher (volatility & range) the more profitable the chart is.
inputs:
Lookback length: how long the range is (how many candles are included).
How intense should the Swing be: how many candles should be counted as a confirmation complete swing.
Show counted Swings: if checked as true, will show the swings counted in the volatility calculation.
For any notes on the indicator to be edited, or for another indicator ideas please comment.
Percentage Range IndicatorThe Percentage Range Indicator is useful for assessing the volatility of pairs for percentage-based grid bots. The higher the percentage range for a given time period, the more trades a grid bot is likely to generate in that period. Conversely, a grid bot can be optimised by using grids that are less than the Percentage Range Indicator value.
I have been using the Percentage Range Indicator based on the one hour time period and 168 periods of smoothing (seven days based on one-hour periods).
Enjoy.
Basic Shannon Entropy & DerivativesThis script performs the basic Shannon entropy on the closing value of the stock. Additionally, it performs the trailing first and second derivatives of the Shannon Entropy, giving you more information about its movement.
You can change the "Source" to be whatever value you like.
Sessions with High/Low DiffThe main purpose of this indicator is to facilitate backtesting, but it may also be useful for traders to easily identify the current
active/open trading sessions on lower-timeframe charts.
This indicator also tracks the session high/low difference and plots it as a label on the last candle of the session once the last
bar of that session has finished printing and a new candle opened. The position and direction of the label is based on the
session open and close - if the session open is greater than the session close (which would equate to the equivalent of a red candle),
the label will be printed UNDER the last candle, and vice versa if the session close is above the session open.
The number printed inside the label is the difference between the session high and the session low, scaled to the minimum tick value of the chart.
Note #1: There is a Pinescript maximum of 500 labels allowed on any chart. While I could have gotten fancy and done some wizardry with label arrays,
I didn't really see a point to it. If labels are enabled for all 4 sessions at the same time, that would still have them available for the past 125
sessions, which would be about 6 months (approx 252 trading days per year, and this would cover 125 of them). If you limit to 2 sessions, you double
your potential look-back to almost a year (250 days out of the 252 average trading days each year), and for a single session, you double it yet again
to just under 2 years.
Note #2: As this indicator tracks open, high, low, and close for each session, it can potentially be enhanced (or forked) to construct "session candles".
I'm not sure what use this would be to anyone, but the pieces are there should someone find a use for it.
While it would be easy to add alerts on sessions opening/closing, I didn't see a purpose or value in that as it would be little more than a
glorified alarm clock. If I get enough demand to add them, I will gladly consider it.
rv_iv_vrpThis script provides realized volatility (rv), implied volatility (iv), and volatility risk premium (vrp) information for each of CBOE's volatility indices. The individual outputs are:
- Blue/red line: the realized volatility. This is an annualized, 20-period moving average estimate of realized volatility--in other words, the variability in the instrument's actual returns. The line is blue when realized volatility is below implied volatility, red otherwise.
- Fuchsia line (opaque): the median of realized volatility. The median is based on all data between the "start" and "end" dates.
- Gray line (transparent): the implied volatility (iv). According to CBOE's volatility methodology, this is similar to a weighted average of out-of-the-money ivs for options with approximately 30 calendar days to expiration. Notice that we compare rv20 to iv30 because there are about twenty trading periods in thirty calendar days.
- Fuchsia line (transparent): the median of implied volatility.
- Lightly shaded gray background: the background between "start" and "end" is shaded a very light gray.
- Table: the table shows the current, percentile, and median values for iv, rv, and vrp. Percentile means the value is greater than "N" percent of all values for that measure.
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Volatility risk premium (vrp) is simply the difference between implied and realized volatility. Along with implied and realized volatility, traders interpret this measure in various ways. Some prefer to be buying options when there volatility, implied or realized, reaches absolute levels, or low risk premium, whereas others have the opposite opinion. However, all volatility traders like to look at these measures in relation to their past values, which this script assists with.
By the way, this script is similar to my "vol premia," which provides the vrp data for all of these instruments on one page. However, this script loads faster and lets you see historical data. I recommend viewing the indicator and the corresponding instrument at the same time, to see how volatility reacts to changes in the underlying price.
Portfolio Performance - Effects of RebalancingFunction:
- Can be used to evaluate the performance of a portfolio containing 2 assets over a set time interval
- Shows the % return of the portfolio over the time interval defined by the user
- Includes a threshold rebalancing algorithm to show the effects that rebalancing has on the portfolio over the long term
- Created to evaluate of the performance of portfolios containing different weightings of stocks and bonds over time assuming that the user would rebalance the portfolio when asset weights crossed a threshold
Instructions:
- To be used with dividends adjustments turned on
- Add this script to a symbol. e.g. AMEX:SPY
- Click the chart to define the entry time and the exit time. i.e. the time interval
- Define the initial investment of the portfolio. Default setting is $100,000
- Define the second asset to be included in the portfolio. e.g. BATS:AGG
- The strategy comes pre-populated with a portfolio that has a weight of 80% asset 1 and 20% asset 2. i.e. 80% AMEX:SPY and 20% BATS:AGG if the symbols mentioned above were chosen
- The 7 lines show the weighted % return of each portfolio over the time period defined by the user
- Each line (except the blue) is the return based on a different rebalancing threshold. The default settings are 1%, 2.5%, 5%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 30%
- The blue line is the % return of a portfolio that was made up of 100% asset 1 over the time interval. i.e. 100% AMEX:SPY
- Asset weights and rebalancing thresholds are adjustable via the settings
- Each plot can be turned on and turned off via a tick box in the settings
[BM] SSS 50% Rule EvaluatorSara Strat Sniper 50% Rule Evaluator
█ OVERVIEW
This indicator is based on Sara Strat Sniper's - 50% Rule for trading Outside Bars and helps you to evaluate the historical success rate of that rule.
█ FEATURES
Calculation
• You can choose to evaluate only the current bar to see if it forms an outside bar (success) or not (fail), but you can also choose to include the next bar to see if that one forms a compound outside bar.
• You can enable a start and/or end date to limit the calculation period.
Table
• Show or hide the table with the calculation results.
• Show or hide the calculation details (up/down data).
• Position of the table, opacity, cell width and text size can be customized.
Colors
• Table colors can be customized.
• You can choose to show the inside/outside bars in customizable bar colors.
• You can choose to identify successful/failed/recovered outside bars in customizable background colors.
█ LIMITATIONS
• This script uses a special characteristic of the `security()` function allowing the inspection of intrabars — which is not officially supported by TradingView.
• Intrabar inspection only works on some chart timeframes: 5, 10, 15, 30, 45 and 195 minutes, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 hours, 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 days, 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 and 12 months. The script’s code can be modified to run on other resolutions.
• There is a limit to how far back intrabar calculations can be performed, and is dependant on both the intrabar resolution and your subscription (which determines the number of available bars).
