Smart Options Regime & Strategy Engine [KedArc Quant]Smart Options Regime & Strategy Engine
Overview
The Smart Options Regime & Strategy Engine is a volatility-aware decision framework designed to help traders objectively determine when to:
* Sell credit spreads
* Buy debit spreads
* Trade iron condors
* Or avoid trading entirely
It combines daily volatility analysis with institutional trend structure to provide clear, actionable recommendations suitable for US and India markets.
Unlike traditional indicators that only show price signals, this engine evaluates the underlying volatility regime and structural trend to answer the most important options question:
Is this a premium selling environment or not?
What problem this solves
Most traders lose money because they:
* Sell options when volatility is too low
* Buy options when volatility is too high
* Trade against higher timeframe trend
* Trade without knowing if there is real volatility edge
This engine solves those problems by analyzing:
* Realized Volatility (actual movement)
* Implied Volatility proxy (VIX or India VIX)
* Volatility Risk Premium (IV minus RV)
* Higher timeframe trend structure
* Lower timeframe trend alignment
* Volatility percentile environment
And then converts this into a clear trade recommendation.
How it helps traders make decisions
The engine provides five possible recommendations:
1. SELL PUT SPREAD
When volatility is favorable and trend is bullish.
2. SELL CALL SPREAD
When volatility is favorable and trend is bearish.
3. IRON CONDOR
When volatility is favorable but market is sideways.
4. DEBIT SPREAD
When volatility expansion favors option buying.
5. WAIT / NO EDGE
When conditions are not favorable for options trading.
This removes guesswork and helps traders align with volatility edge.
Core logic used (Institutional concepts)
This engine evaluates:
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
VRP = Implied Volatility minus Realized Volatility
If VRP is positive, option selling has statistical edge.
If VRP is negative, option buying may have advantage.
Trend structure confirmation using:
* EMA trend alignment
* ADX trend strength
* Multi timeframe confirmation
This ensures trades align with structural trend, not short term noise.
Dashboard explanation
The dashboard displays:
RV
Realized volatility based on daily returns.
IV
Implied volatility proxy from VIX or India VIX.
VRP
Volatility risk premium.
VRP State
Shows whether volatility selling edge exists.
Vol Regime
Indicates volatility environment strength.
Sell Edge
Confirms whether premium selling has statistical advantage.
LTF Trend
Lower timeframe trend direction.
HTF Trend
Higher timeframe trend direction.
Bias
Overall structural direction.
Final Recommendation
Clear trade structure suggestion.
Sell Leg Delta
Suggested option delta range.
Input configuration guide
RV Lookback
Default 20 days. Measures realized volatility stability.
IV Proxy Mode
Auto mode selects correct volatility index automatically:
US markets use CBOE VIX
India markets use India VIX
Trend timeframe
Default 60 minutes. Controls institutional trend direction.
Min Score to allow selling
Default 6. Higher values produce stricter signals.
Dashboard mode
Compact or Full display.
Why this is NOT a mashup indicator
This script is not a mashup of unrelated indicators.
It is a structured volatility decision engine built around a single coherent concept:
Volatility Risk Premium combined with institutional trend confirmation.
Every component directly supports volatility regime identification.
It does not combine random indicators like RSI, MACD, or unrelated oscillators.
Each element exists specifically to answer one question:
Does selling or buying options have statistical edge right now?
How traders can use this in practice
For credit spread sellers:
SELL PUT SPREAD recommendation
Use put credit spreads with delta approximately 0.15 to 0.25
SELL CALL SPREAD recommendation
Use call credit spreads with delta approximately minus 0.15 to minus 0.25
For iron condor traders:
Use delta approximately plus or minus 0.10 to 0.20
For debit spread traders:
Use delta approximately 0.40 to 0.60
Supported markets
US stocks
SPX, SPY, QQQ, NVDA, AAPL, TSLA and others
India markets
NIFTY, BANKNIFTY, and NSE stocks
Works automatically without manual configuration.
Example use cases
NIFTY bullish and VRP positive
Recommendation becomes SELL PUT SPREAD
NVDA bearish and VRP positive
Recommendation becomes SELL CALL SPREAD
Low VRP environment
Recommendation becomes WAIT or DEBIT SPREAD
Sideways market with high VRP
Recommendation becomes IRON CONDOR
Glossary
Realized Volatility (RV)
Actual volatility measured from price movement.
Implied Volatility (IV)
Expected volatility implied from options pricing.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP)
Difference between IV and RV.
Credit Spread
Option selling strategy with defined risk.
Debit Spread
Option buying strategy with defined risk.
Iron Condor
Neutral option selling strategy.
Delta
Measures sensitivity of option price to underlying price movement.
What makes this unique
Focuses on volatility regime, not just price signals.
Provides actionable strategy recommendation, not just signals.
Supports both US and India markets automatically.
Uses institutional volatility logic.
Helps avoid trading during unfavorable volatility conditions.
Important notes
This tool provides decision support based on volatility regime and trend structure.
It does not guarantee profits.
Always apply proper risk management.
Author
KedArc Quant
Systematic Options Strategy Research
Pine Script®指标






















