BTC 5-MA Multi Cross Strategy By Hardik Prajapati Ai TradelabThis strategy is built around the five most powerful and commonly used moving averages in crypto trading — 5, 20, 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs (Simple Moving Averages) — applied on a 1-hour Bitcoin chart.
Core Idea:
The strategy aims to identify strong bullish trends by confirming when the price action crosses above all key moving averages. This alignment of multiple MAs indicates momentum shift and helps filter out false breakouts.
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⚙️ How It Works:
1. Calculates 5 Moving Averages:
• 5 MA → Short-term momentum (fastest signal)
• 20 MA → Near-term trend confirmation
• 50 MA → Mid-term trend filter
• 100 MA → Long-term trend foundation
• 200 MA → Macro-trend direction (strongest support/resistance)
2. Buy Condition (Entry):
• A Buy is triggered when:
• The price crosses above the 5 MA, and
• The closing price remains above all other MAs (20, 50, 100, 200)
This signals that momentum is aligned across all time horizons — a strong uptrend confirmation.
3. Sell Condition (Exit):
• The position is closed when price crosses below the 20 MA, showing weakness in short-term momentum.
4. Visual Signals:
• 🟢 BUY triangle below candles → Entry signal
• 🔴 SELL triangle above candles → Exit signal
• Colored MAs plotted for trend clarity.
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📈 Recommended Usage:
• Chart: BTC/USDT
• Timeframe: 1 Hour
• Type: Trend-following crossover strategy
• Ideal for: Identifying major breakout moves and confirming trend reversals.
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⚠️ Notes:
• This script is meant for educational and backtesting purposes only.
• Always apply additional confirmation tools (like RSI, Volume, or VIX-style filters) before live trading.
• Works best during trending markets; may produce whipsaws in sideways zones.
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Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
References
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Universal Breakout Strategy [KedArc Quant]Description:
A flexible breakout framework where you can test different logics (Prev Day, Bollinger, Volume, ATR, EMA Trend, RSI Confirm, Candle Confirm, Time Filter) under one system.
Choose your breakout mode, and the strategy will handle entries, exits, and optional risk management (ATR stops, take-profits, daily loss guard, cooldowns).
An on-chart info table shows live mode values (like Prev High/Low, Bollinger levels, RSI, etc.) plus P&L stats for quick analysis.
Use it to compare which breakout style works best on your instrument and timeframe, whether intraday, swing, or positional trading
🔑 Why it’s useful
* Flexibility: Switch between breakout strategies without loading different indicators.
* Clarity: On-chart info table displays current mode, relevant indicator levels, and live strategy P&L stats.
* Testing efficiency: Quickly A/B test different breakout styles under the same backtest environment.
* Transparency: Every trade is rule-based and displayed with entry/exit markers.
🚀 How it helps traders
* Lets you experiment with breakout strategies quickly without loading multiple scripts.
* Helps identify which breakout method fits your instrument & timeframe.
* Gives clear on-chart visual + statistical feedback for confident decision-making.
⚙️ Input Configuration
* Breakout Mode → choose which strategy to test:
* *Prev Day* → breakouts of yesterday’s High/Low.
* *Bollinger* → Upper/Lower BB pierce.
* *Volume* → Breakout confirmed with volume above average.
* *ATR Stop* → Wide range breakout using ATR filter.
* *Time Filter* → Breakouts inside defined session hours.
* *EMA Trend* → Breakouts only in EMA fast > slow alignment.
* *RSI Confirm* → Breakouts with RSI confirmation (e.g. >55 for longs).
* *Candle Confirm* → Breakouts validated by bullish/bearish candle.
* Lookback / ATR / Bollinger inputs → adjust sensitivity.
* Intrabar mode → option to evaluate breakouts using bar highs/lows instead of closes.
* Table options → show/hide info table, show/hide P&L stats, choose corner placement.
📈 Entry & Exit Logic
* Entry → occurs when breakout condition of chosen mode is met.
* Exit → default exits via opposite signals or optional stop/target if enabled.
* Session filter → optional auto-flat at session end.
* P&L management → optional daily loss guard, cooldown between trades, and ATR-based stop/take profit.
❓ FAQ — Choosing the best setup
Q: Which strategy should I use for which chart?
* *Prev Day Breakouts*: Best on indices, FX, and liquid futures with strong daily levels.
* *Bollinger*: Works well in range-bound environments, or crypto pairs with volatility compression.
* *Volume*: Good on equities where breakout strength is tied to volume spikes.
* *ATR Stop*: Suits volatile instruments (commodities, crypto).
* *EMA Trend*: Useful in trending markets (stocks, indices).
* *RSI Confirm*: Adds momentum filter, better for swing trades.
* *Candle Confirm*: Ideal for scalpers needing visual confirmation.
* *Time Filter*: For intraday traders who want signals only in high-liquidity sessions.
Q: What timeframe should I use?
* Intraday traders → 5m to 15m (Time Filter, Candle Confirm).
* Swing traders → 1H to 4H (EMA Trend, RSI Confirm, ATR Stop).
* Position traders → Daily (Prev Day, Bollinger).
* Breakout
A trade entry condition triggered when price crosses above a resistance level (for longs) or below a support level (for shorts).
* Prev Day High/Low
Formula:
Prev High = High of (Day )
Prev Low = Low of (Day )
* Bollinger Bands
Formula:
Basis = SMA(Close, Length)
Upper Band = Basis + (Multiplier × StdDev(Close, Length))
Lower Band = Basis – (Multiplier × StdDev(Close, Length))
* Volume Confirmation
A breakout is only valid if:
Volume > SMA(Volume, Length)
* ATR (Average True Range)
Measures volatility.
Formula:
ATR = SMA(True Range, Length)
where True Range = max(High–Low, |High–Close |, |Low–Close |)
* EMA (Exponential Moving Average)
Weighted moving average giving more weight to recent prices.
Formula:
EMA = (Price × α) + (EMA × (1–α))
with α = 2 / (Length + 1)
* RSI (Relative Strength Index)
Momentum oscillator scaled 0–100.
Formula:
RSI = 100 – (100 / (1 + RS))
where RS = Avg(Gain, Length) ÷ Avg(Loss, Length)
* Candle Confirmation
Bullish candle: Close > Open AND Close > Close
Bearish candle: Close < Open AND Close < Close
Win Rate (%)
Formula:
Win Rate = (Winning Trades ÷ Total Trades) × 100
* Average Trade P&L
Formula:
Avg Trade = Net Profit ÷ Total Trades
📊 Performance Notes
The Universal Breakout Strategy is designed as a framework rather than a single-asset optimized system. Results will vary depending on the chart, timeframe, and asset chosen.
On the current defaults (15-minute, INR-denominated example), the backtest produced 132 trades over the selected period. This provides a statistically sufficient sample size.
Win rate (~35%) is relatively low, but this is balanced by a positive reward-to-risk ratio (~1.8). In practice, a lower win rate with larger wins versus smaller losses is sustainable.
The average P&L per trade is close to breakeven under default settings. This is expected, as the strategy is not tuned for a single symbol but offered as a universal breakout framework.
Commissions (0.1%) and slippage (1 tick) are included in the simulation, ensuring realistic conditions.
Risk management is conservative, with order sizing set at 1 unit per trade. This avoids over-leveraging and keeps exposure well under the 5-10% equity risk guideline.
👉 Traders are encouraged to:
Experiment with inputs such as ATR period, breakout length, or Bollinger parameters.
Test across different timeframes and instruments (equities, futures, forex, crypto) to find optimal setups.
Combine with filters (trend direction, volatility regimes, or volume conditions) for further refinement.
⚠️ Disclaimer This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
Market Sentiment Trend Gauge [LevelUp]Market Sentiment Trend Gauge simplifies technical analysis by mathematically combining momentum, trend direction, volatility position, and comparison against a market benchmark, into a single trend score from -100 to +100. Displayed in a separate pane below your chart, it resolves conflicting signals from RSI, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and market correlations, providing clear insights into trend direction, strength, and relative performance.
THE PROBLEM MARKET SENTIMENT TREND GAUGE (MSTG) SOLVES
Traditional indicators often produce conflicting signals, such as RSI showing overbought while prices rise or moving averages indicating an uptrend despite market underperformance. MSTG creates a weighted composite score to answer: "What's the overall bias for this asset?"
KEY COMPONENTS AND WEIGHTINGS
The trend score combines
▪ Momentum (25%): Normalized 14-period RSI, capped at ±100.
▪ Trend Direction (35%): 10/21-period EMA relationships,
▪ Volatility Position (20%): Price position, 20-period Bollinger Bands, capped at ±100.
▪ Market Comparison (20%): Daily performance vs. SPY benchmark, capped at ±100.
Final score = Weighted sum, smoothed with 5-period EMA.
INTERPRETING THE MSTG CHART
Trend Score Ranges and Colors
▪ Bright Green (>+30): Strong bullish; ideal for long entries.
▪ Light Green (+10 to +30): Weak bullish; cautiously favorable.
▪ Gray (-10 to +10): Neutral; avoid directional trades.
▪ Light Red (-10 to -30): Weak bearish; exercise caution.
▪ Bright Red (<-30): Strong bearish; high-risk for longs, consider shorts.
Reference Lines
▪ Zero Line (Gray): Separates bullish/bearish; crossovers signal trend changes.
▪ ±30 Lines (Dotted, Green/Red): Thresholds for strong trends.
▪ ±60 Lines (Dashed, Green/Red): Extreme strength zones (not overbought/oversold); manage risk (tighten stops, partial profits) but trends may persist.
Background Colors
▪ Green Tint (>+20): Bullish environment; favorable for longs.
▪ Red Tint (<-20): Bearish environment; caution for longs.
▪ Light Gray Tint (-20 to +20): Neutral/range-bound; wait for signals.
Extreme Readings vs. Traditional Signals
MSTG ±60 indicates maximum alignment of all factors, not reversals (unlike RSI >70/<30). Use for risk management, not automatic exits. Strong trends can sustain extremes; breakdowns occur below +30 or above -30.
INFORMATION TABLE INTERPRETATION
Trend Score Symbols
▲▲ >+30 strong bullish
▲ +10 to +30
● -10 to +10 neutral
▼ -30 to -10
▼▼ <-30 strong bearish
Colors: Green (positive), White (neutral), Red (negative).
Momentum Score
+40 to +100 strong bullish
0 to +40 moderate bullish
-40 to 0 moderate bearish
-100 to -40 strong bearish
Market vs. Stock
▪ Green: Stock outperforming market
▪ Red: Stock underperforming market
Example Interpretations:
-0.45% / +1.23% (Green): Market down, stock up = Strong relative strength
+2.10% / +1.50% (Red): Both rising, but stock lagging = Relative weakness
-1.20% / -0.80% (Green): Both falling, but stock declining less = Defensive strength
UNDERSTANDING EXTREME READINGS VS TRADITIONAL OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
⚠️ Critical distinctions
Traditional Overbought/Oversold Signals:
▪ Single indicator (like RSI >70 or <30) showing momentum excess
▪ Often suggests immediate reversal or pullback expected
▪ Based on "price moved too far, too fast" concept
MSTG Extreme Readings (±60):
▪ Composite alignment of 4 different factors (momentum, trend, volatility, relative strength)
▪ Indicates maximum strength in current direction
▪ NOT a reversal signal - means "all systems extremely bullish/bearish"
Key Differences:
▪ RSI >70: "Price got ahead of itself, expect pullback"
▪ MSTG >+60: "Everything is extremely bullish right now"
▪ Strong trends can maintain extreme MSTG readings during major moves
▪ Breakdowns happen when MSTG falls below +30, not at +60
Proper Usage of Extreme Readings:
▪ Risk Management: Tighten stops, take partial profits
▪ Position Sizing: Reduce new position sizes at extremes
▪ Trend Continuation: Watch for sustained extreme readings in strong markets
▪ Exit Signals: Look for breakdown below +30, not reversal from +60
TRADING WITH MSTG
Quick Assessment
1. Check trend symbol for direction.
2. Confirm momentum strength.
3. Note relative performance color.
Examples:
▲▲ 55.2 (Green), Momentum +28.4, Outperforming: Strong buy setup.
▼ -18.6 (Red), Momentum -43.2, Underperforming: Defensive positioning.
Entry Conditions
▪ Long: stock outperforming market
- Score >+30 (bright green)
- Sustained green background
- ▲▲ symbol,
▪ Short: stock underperforming market
- Score <-30 (bright red)
- Sustained red background
- ▼▼ symbol
Avoid Trading When:
▪ Gray zone (-10 to +10).
▪ Rapid color changes or frequent zero-line crosses (choppy market).
▪ Gray background (range-bound).
Risk Management:
▪ Stop Loss: Exit on zero-line crossover against position.
▪ Take Profit: Partial at ±60 for risk control.
▪ Position Sizing: Larger when signals align; smaller in extremes or mixed conditions.
KEY ADVANTAGES
▪ Unified View: Weighted composite reduces noise and conflicts.
▪ Visual Clarity: 5-color system with gradients for rapid recognition.
▪ Market Context: Relative strength vs. SPY identifies leaders/laggards.
▪ Flexibility: Works across timeframes (1-min to weekly); customizable table.
▪ Noise Reduction: EMA smoothing minimizes false signals.
EXAMPLES
Strong Bull: Trend Score 71.9, Momentum Score 76.9
Neutral: Trend Score 0.1, Momentum Score -9.2
Strong Bear: Trend Score -51.7, Momentum Score -51.5
PERFORMANCE AND LIMITATIONS
Strengths: Trend identification, noise reduction, relative performance versus market.
Limitations: Lags at turning points, less effective in extreme volatility or non-trending markets.
Recommendations: View on multiple timeframes, combine with price action and fundamentals.
VWAP Momentum Oscillator How It Works
Core Calculation Method
The oscillator combines four key market measurements into a single, normalized reading:
1. Price-VWAP Deviation: `(Close - VWAP) / VWAP × 100`
2. VWAP-MA Momentum: `(VWAP - MovingAverage) / MovingAverage × 100`
3. Anchored VWAP Strength: Average of high/low anchor deviations from rolling VWAP
4. Range Position: `(Close - PeriodLow) / (PeriodHigh - PeriodLow) × 100 - 50`
Dynamic Signal Line
The signal line uses an EMA that automatically adjusts its length based on your chart timeframe:
- Futures: Always covers 23 hours of trading (1,380 minutes)
- Stocks: Always covers 6.5 hours of trading (390 minutes)
- Examples: 276 periods on 5-min futures chart, 1,380 periods on 1-min futures chart
Trading Signals
🟢 Buy Signals
- Condition: Main oscillator crosses above signal line while below zero
- Logic: Momentum turning bullish from oversold conditions
- Visual: Green "BUY" label below price action
🔴 Sell Signals
- Condition: Main oscillator crosses below signal line while above zero
- Logic: Momentum turning bearish from overbought conditions
- Visual: Red "SELL" label above price action
⚠️ Extreme Warnings
- Extreme Overbought: Red triangle when oscillator crosses above +4.0
- Extreme Oversold: Green triangle when oscillator crosses below -4.0
- Purpose: Risk management alerts, not entry/exit signals
Oscillator Zones
Interpretation Guide
- Above +2.0: Strong bullish momentum zone (green background)
- 0 to +2.0: Mild bullish territory
- 0 to -2.0: Mild bearish territory
- Below -2.0: Strong bearish momentum zone (red background)
- Above +4.0: Extreme overbought (caution advised)
- Below -4.0: Extreme oversold (potential reversal zone)
Customization Options
Moving Average Settings
- EMA/SMA Toggle: Choose between exponential or simple moving average
- Color Customization: Adjust MA line color and width
Visual Controls
- Bullish/Bearish Colors: Customize momentum zone colors
- Signal Line: Toggle visibility and adjust color
- Line Widths: Control thickness of all plot lines
Anchor Modes
- NY Session Only: Anchors reset at NY market open (9:30 AM ET)
- 24H NY Day: Anchors reset at NY calendar day change (midnight ET)
Best Practices
Timeframe Selection
- Scalping: 1-5 minute charts for quick momentum changes
- Day Trading: 5-15 minute charts for clearer trend signals
- Swing Trading: 1-4 hour charts for major momentum shifts
Signal Confirmation
- Wait for crossovers: Don't trade on oscillator position alone
- Respect extreme levels: Exercise caution above +4 or below -4
- Use with price action: Combine with support/resistance levels
Risk Management
- Extreme zones: Reduce position size when oscillator is extended
- Failed signals: Exit quickly if momentum doesn't follow through
- Market context: Consider overall trend direction and market volatility
Technical Specifications
Calculation Components
- Base Length: 1,380 periods (futures) / 390 periods (stocks)
- Signal Line: Dynamic EMA covering one full trading day
- Smoothing: 3-period SMA on raw oscillator (adjustable)
- Update Frequency: Real-time on every price tick
Performance Notes
- Resource Efficient: Optimized calculations minimize CPU usage
- Memory Friendly: Uses incremental VWAP calculations
- Fast Loading: Minimal historical data requirements
Version History & Development
This oscillator evolved from advanced VWAP overlay strategies, transforming complex multi-line analysis into a single, actionable momentum gauge. The indicator maintains the sophistication of institutional VWAP analysis while providing the clarity needed for retail trading decisions.
Core Philosophy
Traditional VWAP indicators show where price is relative to volume-weighted averages, but they don't quantify momentum or provide clear entry/exit signals. This oscillator solves that problem by normalizing all VWAP relationships into a single, bounded indicator that works consistently across all timeframes and asset classes.
---
Open Source License: This indicator is provided free for the TradingView community. Feel free to modify and enhance according to your trading needs.
KD The ScalperWe have to take the trade when all three EMAs are pointing in the same direction (no criss-cross, no up/down, sideways). All 3 EMAs should be cleanly separated from each other with strong spacing between them; they are not tangled, sideways, or messy. This is our first filter before entering the trade. Are the EMAs stacked neatly, and is the price outside of the 25 EMA? If price pulls back and closes near or below the 25 or 50 EMA and breaks the 100 EMA, we don't trade. Use the 100 EMA as a safety net and refrain from trading if the price touches or falls below the 100 EMA.
1. Confirm the trend- All 3 EMAs must align, and they must spread
2. Watch price pull back to the 25th or the 50 EMA
3. Wait for the price to bounce - And re-approach the 25 EMA
Why is this powerful?
Removes 80% of the low-probability Trades
It keeps you out of choppy markets
Avoids Reversal Traps
Anchors us to momentum
We take the entry when the price moves up again and touches the 25 EMA from below, and then when it breaks above the 25 EMA, or even better, when a lovely green bullish candle forms. A bullish candle indicates good momentum. When a bullish candle closes in green, it means the momentum has increased significantly. This is when we enter a long trade, with the stop-loss just below the 50 EMA and the profit target being 1.5 times the stop-loss.
The same rule applies to the bearish trade.
AI Trading Alerts v6 — SL/TP + Confidence + Panel (Fixed)Overview
This Pine Script is designed to identify high-probability trading opportunities in Forex, commodities, and crypto markets. It combines EMA trend filters, RSI, and Stochastic RSI, with automatic stop-loss (SL) & take-profit (TP) suggestions, and provides a confidence panel to quickly assess the trade setup strength.
It also includes TradingView alert conditions so you can set up notifications for Long/Short setups and EMA crosses.
⚙️ Features
EMA Trend Filter
Uses EMA 50, 100, 200 for trend confirmation.
Bull trend = EMA50 > EMA100 > EMA200
Bear trend = EMA50 < EMA100 < EMA200
RSI Filter
Bullish trades require RSI > 50
Bearish trades require RSI < 50
Stochastic RSI Filter
Prevents entries during overbought/oversold extremes.
Bullish entry only if %K and %D < 80
Bearish entry only if %K and %D > 20
EMA Proximity Check
Price must be near EMA50 (within ATR × adjustable multiplier).
Signals
Continuation Signals:
Long if all bullish conditions align.
Short if all bearish conditions align.
Cross Events:
Long Cross when price crosses above EMA50 in bull trend.
Short Cross when price crosses below EMA50 in bear trend.
Automatic SL/TP Suggestions
SL size adjusts depending on asset:
Gold/Silver (XAU/XAG): 5 pts
Bitcoin/Ethereum: 100 pts
FX pairs (default): 20 pts
TP = SL × Risk:Reward ratio (default 1:2).
Confidence Score (0–4)
Based on conditions met (trend, RSI, Stoch, EMA proximity).
Labels:
Strongest (4/4)
Strong (3/4)
Medium (2/4)
Low (1/4)
Visual Panel on Chart
Shows ✅/❌ for each condition (trend, RSI, Stoch, EMA proximity, signal now).
Confidence row with color-coded strength.
Alerts
Long Setup
Short Setup
Long Cross
Short Cross
🖥️ How to Use
1. Add the Script
Open TradingView → Pine Editor.
Paste the full script.
Click Add to chart.
Save as "AI Trading Alerts v6 — SL/TP + Confidence + Panel".
2. Configure Inputs
EMA Lengths: Default 50/100/200 (works well for swing trading).
RSI Length: 14 (standard).
Stochastic Length/K/D: Default 14/3/3.
Risk:Reward Ratio: Default 2.0 (can change to 1.5, 3.0, etc.).
EMA Proximity Threshold: Default 0.20 × ATR (adjust to be stricter/looser).
3. Read the Panel
Top-right of chart, you’ll see ✅ or ❌ for:
Trend → Are EMAs aligned?
RSI → Above 50 (bull) or below 50 (bear)?
Stoch OK → Not extreme?
Near EMA50 → Close enough to EMA50?
Above/Below OK → Price position vs. EMA50 matches trend?
Signal Now → Entry triggered?
Confidence row:
🟢 Green = Strongest
🟩 Light green = Strong
🟧 Orange = Medium
🟨 Yellow = Low
⬜ Gray = None
4. Alerts Setup
Go to TradingView Alerts (⏰ icon).
Choose the script under “Condition”.
Select alert type:
Long Setup
Short Setup
Long Cross
Short Cross
Set notification method (popup, sound, email, mobile).
Click Create.
Now TradingView will notify you automatically when signals appear.
5. Example Workflow
Wait for Confidence = Strong/Strongest.
Check if market session supports volatility (e.g., XAU in London/NY).
Review SL/TP suggestions:
Long → Entry: current price, SL: close - risk_pts, TP: close + risk_pts × RR.
Short → Entry: current price, SL: close + risk_pts, TP: close - risk_pts × RR.
Adjust based on your own price action analysis.
📊 Best Practices
Use on H1 + D1 combo → align higher timeframe bias with intraday entries.
Risk only 1–2% of account per trade (position sizing required).
Filter with market sessions (Asia, Europe, US).
Strongest signals work best with trending pairs (e.g., XAUUSD, USDJPY, BTCUSD).
Anchored EMA/VWAP### Anchored EMA/VWAP Indicator
**Description:**
The **Anchored EMA/VWAP Indicator** is a powerful and versatile tool designed for traders seeking to analyze price trends and momentum from a user-defined anchor point in time. Built for TradingView using Pine Script v6, this indicator calculates and displays multiple **Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs)**, **Volume-Weighted Exponential Moving Averages (VWEMAs)**, and a **Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)**, all anchored to a specific date and time chosen by the user. By anchoring these calculations, traders can focus on price action relative to significant market events, such as news releases, earnings reports, or key support/resistance levels.
The indicator supports multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, allowing users to compute EMAs, VWEMAs, and VWAP on a higher or custom timeframe (e.g., 5-minute, 1-hour, daily) while overlaying the results on the current chart. It also includes customizable cross signals for EMA and VWEMA pairs, marked with distinct shapes (circles, diamonds, squares) to highlight potential trend changes or reversals. These features make the indicator ideal for trend-following, momentum trading, and identifying key price levels across various markets, including stocks, forex, cryptocurrencies, and commodities.
**Key Features:**
- **Anchored Calculations**: EMAs, VWEMAs, and VWAP start calculations from a user-specified anchor time, enabling analysis relative to significant market moments.
- **Multi-Timeframe Support**: Compute indicators on any timeframe (e.g., 60-minute, daily) and display them on the chart’s timeframe for flexible analysis.
- **Customizable EMAs and VWEMAs**: Four EMAs and four VWEMAs with adjustable lengths (default: 9, 21, 50, 100) and colors, with options to show or hide each.
- **Volume-Weighted Metrics**: VWAP and VWEMAs incorporate volume data, providing a more robust representation of market activity compared to standard EMAs.
- **Cross Signals**: Visual markers (circles, diamonds, squares) for crossovers between EMA and VWEMA pairs, with customizable visibility to highlight bullish (up) or bearish (down) signals.
- **User-Friendly Interface**: Organized input groups for General, EMA, VWEMA, VWAP, Arrow Settings, and Cross Visibility, with intuitive inline inputs for length and color customization.
- **Visual Clarity**: Overlaid on the price chart with distinct colors and line styles (dotted for EMAs, dashed for VWEMAs, solid for VWAP) to ensure easy interpretation.
**How to Use:**
1. **Set the Anchor Time**: Click a specific bar or enter a date/time (default: June 1, 2025) to start calculations from a significant market event.
2. **Select Timeframe**: Choose a timeframe (e.g., "5" for 5-minute, "D" for daily) to compute the indicators, allowing alignment with your trading strategy.
3. **Customize EMAs and VWEMAs**: Adjust lengths and colors for up to four EMAs and VWEMAs, and toggle their visibility to focus on relevant lines.
4. **Enable VWAP**: Display the anchored VWAP to identify volume-weighted price levels, useful as dynamic support/resistance.
5. **Monitor Cross Signals**: Enable cross visibility for specific EMA or VWEMA pairs to spot potential trend changes. Bullish crosses (e.g., shorter EMA crossing above longer EMA) are marked with green shapes below the bar, while bearish crosses are marked with red shapes above the bar.
6. **Interpret Signals**: Use EMA/VWEMA crossovers for trend confirmation, VWAP as a mean-reversion level, and volume-weighted VWEMAs for momentum analysis in high-volume markets.
**Use Cases:**
- **Trend Trading**: Identify trend direction using EMA and VWEMA crossovers, with shorter lengths (e.g., 9, 21) for faster signals and longer lengths (e.g., 50, 100) for trend confirmation.
- **Mean Reversion**: Use the anchored VWAP as a dynamic support/resistance level to trade pullbacks or breakouts.
- **Event-Based Analysis**: Anchor the indicator to significant events (e.g., earnings, economic data releases) to analyze price behavior post-event.
- **Multi-Timeframe Strategies**: Combine higher timeframe EMAs/VWAPs with lower timeframe price action for high-probability setups.
**Settings:**
- **Anchor Time**: Set the starting point for calculations (default: June 1, 2025).
- **Timeframe**: Choose the timeframe for calculations (default: 5-minute).
- **EMA/VWEMA Lengths**: Default lengths of 9, 21, 50, and 100 for both EMAs and VWEMAs, adjustable per user preference.
- **Colors**: Customizable colors with slight transparency for visual clarity.
- **Cross Visibility**: Toggle specific EMA and VWEMA cross signals (e.g., EMA1/EMA2, VWEMA1/VWEMA3) to reduce chart clutter.
- **Arrow Colors**: Green for bullish crosses, red for bearish crosses.
**Notes:**
- The indicator is overlaid on the price chart, ensuring seamless integration with price action analysis.
- VWEMAs and VWAP are volume-sensitive, making them particularly effective in markets with significant volume fluctuations.
- Ensure the anchor time is set to a valid historical or future bar to avoid calculation errors.
- Cross signals are conditional on non-NA values to prevent false positives during initialization.
**Author**: NEPOLIX
**Version**: 6 (Pine Script v6)
**Published**: For TradingView Community
This indicator is a must-have for traders looking to combine anchored, volume-weighted, and multi-timeframe analysis into a single, customizable tool. Whether you're a day trader, swing trader, or long-term investor, the Anchored EMA/VWAP Indicator provides actionable insights for informed trading decisions.
Crypto Market Dominance Stacked with LabelsA professional stacked area chart showing the dominance of major crypto market segments: BTC, ETH, Top 100 Altcoins, and #101+ Altcoins. Each layer is color-coded for clarity and includes dynamic labels with the current dominance percentage. Provides a clear visual representation of market share trends for traders, analysts, and crypto enthusiasts.
Features:
Stacked visualization of BTC, ETH, Top 100, and small-cap altcoins (#101+).
Color-coded areas for easy identification.
Dynamic labels showing each category’s current dominance percentage.
Horizontal reference lines for percentage levels.
Approximates top 100 and #101+ altcoins using TOTAL2 and TOTAL3 market cap tickers.
Use Case:
Track how market share shifts between BTC, ETH, large altcoins, and smaller altcoins over time. Ideal for analyzing trends, spotting dominance changes, and visualizing overall crypto market structure.
Bollinger Bands Difference Score
Bollinger Bands Difference Score (TradingView – Pine Script v6)
The **Bollinger Bands Difference Score** is a volatility-based scoring system designed to help traders quickly assess whether a stock is in a **strong trend, neutral zone, or weak setup**. It transforms the raw **Bollinger Band Width (BB-Diff)** into a **normalized score (0–100)** and classifies conditions with intuitive thresholds.
---
### 🔹 What is Bollinger Bands Difference (BB-Diff)?
* **Bollinger Bands** are built from a moving average with upper and lower bands set by standard deviations.
* The **difference (or width)** between the bands reflects market volatility.
* A **high difference** = wide bands = strong volatility (breakout/trend).
* A **low difference** = narrow bands = low volatility (consolidation).
This indicator standardizes BB-Diff into a score and smooths it for cleaner signals.
---
### 🔹 Key Features
1. **BB-Diff Scoring System**
* Converts Bollinger Band width into a **0–100 normalized score**.
* Higher score → higher volatility/trend strength.
* Lower score → consolidation or weaker momentum.
2. **Signal Levels**
* **Strong Zone (≥ 70):** Indicates strong trend strength or expansion in volatility.
* **Neutral Zone (40–70):** Sideways or undecided price action.
* **Weak Zone (≤ 20):** Suggests very low volatility, potential upcoming squeeze.
3. **Score Smoothing**
* Applies a moving average to reduce noise.
* Helps avoid false signals during choppy markets.
4. **Visual Enhancements**
* Plots the score as a line (0–100 scale).
* Adds horizontal reference lines for **Strong**, **Neutral**, and **Weak** levels.
* Background colors automatically highlight **bullish strength (green)** or **weakness (red)**.
---
### 🔹 How to Use
* **Trend Confirmation:**
Look for scores **above 70** → suggests trend continuation or volatility breakout.
* **Consolidation Watch:**
Scores in the **20 or below** zone may precede volatility squeezes → breakout setups.
* **Neutral Zone:**
Scores between **40–70** suggest sideways price action; avoid aggressive trades.
* **Combine with Price Action:**
Use with support/resistance, candlestick patterns, or momentum indicators for confirmation.
---
### 🔹 Best Practices
* Great as a **volatility filter** before entries.
* Use in combination with **RSI, MACD, or OBV** for directional bias.
* Works well for **breakout trading** (when score rises from low levels).
* Monitor on multiple timeframes for alignment.
---
✅ **In summary:** The **Bollinger Bands Difference Score** is a simple yet powerful tool that quantifies volatility strength into an actionable score, making it easier to spot strong trends, consolidation phases, and potential breakout opportunities.
Extremum Range MA Crossover Strategy1. Principle of Work & Strategy Logic ⚙️📈
Main idea: The strategy tries to catch the moment of a breakout from a price consolidation range (flat) and the start of a new trend. It combines two key elements:
Moving Average (MA) 📉: Acts as a dynamic support/resistance level and trend filter.
Range Extremes (Range High/Low) 🔺🔻: Define the borders of the recent price channel or consolidation.
The strategy does not attempt to catch absolute tops and bottoms. Instead, it enters an already formed move after the breakout, expecting continuation.
Type: Trend-following, momentum-based.
Timeframes: Works on different TFs (H1, H4, D), but best suited for H4 and higher, where breakouts are more meaningful.
2. Justification of Indicators & Settings ⚙️
A. Moving Average (MA) 📊
Why used: Core of the strategy. It smooths price fluctuations and helps define the trend. The price (via extremes) must cross the MA → signals a potential trend shift or strengthening.
Parameters:
maLength = 20: Default length (≈ one trading month, 20-21 days). Good balance between sensitivity & smoothing.
Lower TF → reduce (10–14).
Higher TF → increase (50).
maSource: Defines price source (default = Close). Alternatives (HL2, HLC3) → smoother, less noisy MA.
maType: Default = EMA (Exponential MA).
Why EMA? Faster reaction to recent price changes vs SMA → useful for breakout strategies.
Other options:
SMA 🟦 – classic, slowest.
WMA 🟨 – weights recent data stronger.
HMA 🟩 – near-zero lag, but “nervous,” more false signals.
DEMA/TEMA 🟧 – even faster & more sensitive than EMA.
VWMA 🔊 – volume-weighted.
ZLEMA ⏱ – reduced lag.
👉 Choice = tradeoff between speed of reaction & false signals.
B. Range Extremes (Previous High/Low) 📏
Why used: Define borders of recent trading range.
prevHigh = local resistance.
prevLow = local support.
Break of these levels on close = trigger.
Parameters:
lookbackPeriod = 5: Searches for highest high / lowest low of last 5 candles. Very recent range.
Higher value (10–20) → wider, stronger ranges but rarer signals.
3. Entry & Exit Rules 🎯
Long signals (BUY) 🟢📈
Condition (longCondition): Previous Low crosses MA from below upwards.
→ Price bounced from the bottom & strong enough to push range border above MA.
Execution: Auto-close short (if any) → open long.
Short signals (SELL) 🔴📉
Condition (shortCondition): Previous High crosses MA from above downwards.
→ Price rejected from the top, upper border failed above MA.
Execution: Auto-close long (if any) → open short.
Exit conditions 🚪
Exit Long (exitLongCondition): Close below prevLow.
→ Uptrend likely ended, range shifts down.
Exit Short (exitShortCondition): Close above prevHigh.
→ Downtrend likely ended, range shifts up.
⚠️ Important: Exit = only on candle close beyond extremes (not just wick).
4. Trading Settings ⚒️
overlay = true → indicators shown on chart.
initial_capital = 10000 💵.
default_qty_type = strategy.cash, default_qty_value = 100 → trades fixed $100 per order (not lots). Can switch to % of equity.
commission_type = strategy.commission.percent, commission_value = 0.1 → default broker fee = 0.1%. Adjust for your broker!
slippage = 3 → slippage = 3 ticks. Adjust to asset liquidity.
currency = USD.
margin_long = 100, margin_short = 100 → no leverage (100% margin).
5. Visualization on Chart 📊
The strategy draws 3 lines:
🔵 MA line (thickness 2).
🔴 Previous High (last N candles).
🟢 Previous Low (last N candles).
Also: entry/exit arrows & equity curve shown in backtest.
Disclaimer ⚠️📌
Risk Warning: This description & code are for educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Trading (Forex, Stocks, Crypto) carries high risk and may lead to full capital loss. You trade at your own risk.
Testing: Always backtest & demo test first. Past results ≠ future profits.
Responsibility: Author of this strategy & description is not responsible for your trading decisions or losses.
IV Rank (tasty-style) — VIXFix / HV ProxyIV Rank (tasty-style) — VIXFix / HV Proxy
Overview
This indicator replicates tastytrade’s IV Rank calculation—but built entirely inside TradingView.
Because TradingView does not expose live option-chain implied volatility, the script lets you choose between two widely used price-based IV proxies:
VIXFix (Williams VIX Fix): a fast-reacting volatility estimate derived from price extremes.
HV(30): 30-day annualized historical volatility of daily log returns.
The goal is to approximate the “rich vs. cheap” option volatility environment that traders use to decide whether to sell or buy premium.
Formula
IV Rank answers the question: Where is current implied volatility relative to its own 1-year range?
𝐼
𝑉
𝑅
=
𝐼
𝑉
𝑐
𝑢
𝑟
𝑟
𝑒
𝑛
𝑡
−
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐿
𝑜
𝑤
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐻
𝑖
𝑔
ℎ
−
𝐼
𝑉
1
𝑦
𝐿
𝑜
𝑤
×
100
IVR=
IV
1yHigh
−IV
1yLow
IV
current
−IV
1yLow
×100
IVcurrent: Current value of the chosen IV proxy.
IV1yHigh/Low: Highest and lowest proxy values over the user-defined lookback (default 252 trading days ≈ 1 year).
IVR = 0 → Current IV equals its 1-year low
IVR = 100 → Current IV equals its 1-year high
IVR ≈ 50 → Current IV sits mid-range
How to Use
High IV Rank (≥50–60%)
Options are relatively expensive → short-premium strategies (credit spreads, iron condors, straddles) may be more attractive.
Low IV Rank (≤20%)
Options are relatively cheap → long-premium strategies (debit spreads, calendars, diagonals) may offer better risk/reward.
Combine with your own analysis, liquidity checks, and risk management.
Inputs & Customization
IV Source: Choose “VIXFix” or “HV(30)” as the volatility proxy.
IVR Lookback: Rolling window for 1-year high/low (default 252 trading days).
VIXFix Parameters: Length and stdev multiplier to fine-tune sensitivity.
Info Label: Optional on-chart label displays current IV proxy, 1-year high/low, and IV Rank.
Alerts: Optional alerts when IVR crosses 50, falls below 20, or rises above 80.
Notes & Limitations
This indicator does not pull real option-chain IV.
It provides a close structural analogue to tastytrade’s IV Rank using price-derived proxies for markets where options data is not directly available.
For live option IV, use broker platforms or third-party data feeds alongside this script.
Tags: IV Rank, Implied Volatility, Tastytrade, VIXFix, Historical Volatility, Options, Premium Selling, Debit Spreads, Market Volatility
3-Level DCA Buy Strategy🎯 3-Level DCA Buy Strategy - Smart Dollar Cost Averaging
Professional DCA strategy that systematically accumulates positions during market dips. Enhanced with daily trend analysis for intelligent accumulation.
🚀 Key Features
- 3-Level Buying System: Automatic purchases at 5%, 10%, 15% drops from cycle highs
- Daily Trend Analysis: 1-day timeframe trend confirmation
- Smart Peak Detection: 100-period lookback for meaningful peaks
- Volume Filter: Optional volume confirmation system
- USD-Based Positions: Fixed dollar amounts per level
- Never Sells: Pure accumulation philosophy (buy-only)
📊 How It Works
1. Peak Identification: Detects highest price in last 100 periods
2. Daily Trend Check: Confirms price above 50 SMA on 1D timeframe
3. Drop Tracking: Calculates percentage drops from cycle high
4. Systematic Buying: Executes predetermined amounts at each level
5. Cycle Reset: Renews buy permissions when new peaks form
⚙️ Default Settings
- Buy Levels: 5%, 10%, 15% drops
- Position Sizes: $100, $150, $200
- Peak Period: 100 bars
- Higher Timeframe: 1 Day (1D)
- Pyramiding: 500 order capacity
🎨 Visual Elements
- Orange Circles: Mark cycle highs
- Colored Lines: Green/Blue/Red buy levels
- Triangle Signals: Buy point indicators
- Live Panel: Real-time statistics
- Background Colors: Trend and drop level indicators
🔔 Alert System
- Instant notifications for each buy level
- New peak detection alerts
- Major drop warnings (>20%)
- Daily trend change notifications
💡 Ideal Use Cases
- Crypto Accumulation: Bitcoin, Ethereum and major altcoins
- Stock DCA: Long-term portfolio building
- Volatile Markets: Capitalizing on price fluctuations
- Emotional Trading Prevention: Automated and disciplined buying
📈 Strategy Logic
This strategy follows the "buy the dip" philosophy. It waits during market rises and systematically builds positions during declines. Only buys when daily trend is bullish, providing protection during major bear markets.
⚠️ Important Notes
- Buy-only strategy - never sells positions
- Requires sufficient capital for multiple entries
- Most effective in trending and volatile markets
- Always backtest before live trading
- Risk management is your responsibility
🛠️ Customization Options
All parameters are fully customizable: drop percentages, position amounts, timeframes, visual elements and more. Suitable for both beginner and experienced investors.
🎯 Publishing Feature
Note: Strategy includes temporary 1-day sell cycle for TradingView publishing requirements. This feature can be disabled for normal DCA mode operation.
⭐ If you find this strategy helpful, please like and follow! Visit the profile for more trading tools.
Bar Index & TimeLibrary to convert a bar index to a timestamp and vice versa.
Utilizes runtime memory to store the 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎 and 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎_𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 values of every bar on the chart (and optional future bars), with the ability of storing additional custom values for every chart bar.
█ PREFACE
This library aims to tackle some problems that pine coders (from beginners to advanced) often come across, such as:
I'm trying to draw an object with a 𝚋𝚊𝚛_𝚒𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡 that is more than 10,000 bars into the past, but this causes my script to fail. How can I convert the 𝚋𝚊𝚛_𝚒𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡 to a UNIX time so that I can draw visuals using xloc.bar_time ?
I have a diagonal line drawing and I want to get the "y" value at a specific time, but line.get_price() only accepts a bar index value. How can I convert the timestamp into a bar index value so that I can still use this function?
I want to get a previous 𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗 value that occurred at a specific timestamp. How can I convert the timestamp into a historical offset so that I can use 𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗 ?
I want to reference a very old value for a variable. How can I access a previous value that is older than the maximum historical buffer size of 𝚟𝚊𝚛𝚒𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎 ?
This library can solve the above problems (and many more) with the addition of a few lines of code, rather than requiring the coder to refactor their script to accommodate the limitations.
█ OVERVIEW
The core functionality provided is conversion between xloc.bar_index and xloc.bar_time values.
The main component of the library is the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object, created via the 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() function which basically stores the 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎 and 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎_𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 of every bar on the chart, and there are 3 more overloads to this function that allow collecting and storing additional data. Once a 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object is created, use any of the exported methods:
Methods to convert a UNIX timestamp into a bar index or bar offset:
𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚖𝚙𝚃𝚘𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡(), 𝚐𝚎𝚝𝙽𝚞𝚖𝚋𝚎𝚛𝙾𝚏𝙱𝚊𝚛𝚜𝙱𝚊𝚌𝚔()
Methods to retrieve the stored data for a bar index:
𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝙰𝚝𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡(), 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝙲𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎𝙰𝚝𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡(), 𝚟𝚊𝚕𝚞𝚎𝙰𝚝𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡(), 𝚐𝚎𝚝𝙰𝚕𝚕𝚅𝚊𝚛𝚒𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎𝚜𝙰𝚝𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡()
Methods to retrieve the stored data at a number of bars back (i.e., historical offset):
𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎(), 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝙲𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎(), 𝚟𝚊𝚕𝚞𝚎()
Methods to retrieve all the data points from the earliest bar (or latest bar) stored in memory, which can be useful for debugging purposes:
𝚐𝚎𝚝𝙴𝚊𝚛𝚕𝚒𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚂𝚝𝚘𝚛𝚎𝚍𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊(), 𝚐𝚎𝚝𝙻𝚊𝚝𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚂𝚝𝚘𝚛𝚎𝚍𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊()
Note: the library's strong suit is referencing data from very old bars in the past, which is especially useful for scripts that perform its necessary calculations only on the last bar.
█ USAGE
Step 1
Import the library. Replace with the latest available version number for this library.
//@version=6
indicator("Usage")
import n00btraders/ChartData/
Step 2
Create a 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object to collect data on every bar. Do not declare as `var` or `varip`.
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData() // call on every bar to accumulate the necessary data
Step 3
Call any method(s) on the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object. Do not modify its fields directly.
if barstate.islast
int firstBarTime = chartData.timeAtBarIndex(0)
int lastBarTime = chartData.time(0)
log.info("First `time`: " + str.format_time(firstBarTime) + ", Last `time`: " + str.format_time(lastBarTime))
█ EXAMPLES
• Collect Future Times
The overloaded 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() functions that accept a 𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚜𝙵𝚘𝚛𝚠𝚊𝚛𝚍 argument can additionally store time values for up to 500 bars into the future.
//@version=6
indicator("Example `collectChartData(barsForward)`")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData(barsForward = 500)
var rectangle = box.new(na, na, na, na, xloc = xloc.bar_time, force_overlay = true)
if barstate.islast
int futureTime = chartData.timeAtBarIndex(bar_index + 100)
int lastBarTime = time
box.set_lefttop(rectangle, lastBarTime, open)
box.set_rightbottom(rectangle, futureTime, close)
box.set_text(rectangle, "Extending box 100 bars to the right. Time: " + str.format_time(futureTime))
• Collect Custom Data
The overloaded 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() functions that accept a 𝚟𝚊𝚛𝚒𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎𝚜 argument can additionally store custom user-specified values for every bar on the chart.
//@version=6
indicator("Example `collectChartData(variables)`")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
var map variables = map.new()
variables.put("open", open)
variables.put("close", close)
variables.put("open-close midpoint", (open + close) / 2)
variables.put("boolean", open > close ? 1 : 0)
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData(variables = variables)
var fgColor = chart.fg_color
var table1 = table.new(position.top_right, 2, 9, color(na), fgColor, 1, fgColor, 1, true)
var table2 = table.new(position.bottom_right, 2, 9, color(na), fgColor, 1, fgColor, 1, true)
if barstate.isfirst
table.cell(table1, 0, 0, "ChartData.value()", text_color = fgColor)
table.cell(table2, 0, 0, "open ", text_color = fgColor)
table.merge_cells(table1, 0, 0, 1, 0)
table.merge_cells(table2, 0, 0, 1, 0)
for i = 1 to 8
table.cell(table1, 0, i, text_color = fgColor, text_halign = text.align_left, text_font_family = font.family_monospace)
table.cell(table2, 0, i, text_color = fgColor, text_halign = text.align_left, text_font_family = font.family_monospace)
table.cell(table1, 1, i, text_color = fgColor)
table.cell(table2, 1, i, text_color = fgColor)
if barstate.islast
for i = 1 to 8
float open1 = chartData.value("open", 5000 * i)
float open2 = i < 3 ? open : -1
table.cell_set_text(table1, 0, i, "chartData.value(\"open\", " + str.tostring(5000 * i) + "): ")
table.cell_set_text(table2, 0, i, "open : ")
table.cell_set_text(table1, 1, i, str.tostring(open1))
table.cell_set_text(table2, 1, i, open2 >= 0 ? str.tostring(open2) : "Error")
• xloc.bar_index → xloc.bar_time
The 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎 value (or 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎_𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 value) can be retrieved for any bar index that is stored in memory by the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object.
//@version=6
indicator("Example `timeAtBarIndex()`")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData()
if barstate.islast
int start = bar_index - 15000
int end = bar_index - 100
// line.new(start, close, end, close) // !ERROR - `start` value is too far from current bar index
start := chartData.timeAtBarIndex(start)
end := chartData.timeAtBarIndex(end)
line.new(start, close, end, close, xloc.bar_time, width = 10)
• xloc.bar_time → xloc.bar_index
Use 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚖𝚙𝚃𝚘𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡() to find the bar that a timestamp belongs to.
If the timestamp falls in between the close of one bar and the open of the next bar,
the 𝚜𝚗𝚊𝚙 parameter can be used to determine which bar to choose:
𝚂𝚗𝚊𝚙.𝙻𝙴𝙵𝚃 - prefer to choose the leftmost bar (typically used for closing times)
𝚂𝚗𝚊𝚙.𝚁𝙸𝙶𝙷𝚃 - prefer to choose the rightmost bar (typically used for opening times)
𝚂𝚗𝚊𝚙.𝙳𝙴𝙵𝙰𝚄𝙻𝚃 (or 𝚗𝚊) - copies the same behavior as xloc.bar_time uses for drawing objects
//@version=6
indicator("Example `timestampToBarIndex()`")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
startTimeInput = input.time(timestamp("01 Aug 2025 08:30 -0500"), "Session Start Time")
endTimeInput = input.time(timestamp("01 Aug 2025 15:15 -0500"), "Session End Time")
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData()
if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory
int startBarIndex = chartData.timestampToBarIndex(startTimeInput, ChartData.Snap.RIGHT)
int endBarIndex = chartData.timestampToBarIndex(endTimeInput, ChartData.Snap.LEFT)
line1 = line.new(startBarIndex, 0, startBarIndex, 1, extend = extend.both, color = color.new(color.green, 60), force_overlay = true)
line2 = line.new(endBarIndex, 0, endBarIndex, 1, extend = extend.both, color = color.new(color.green, 60), force_overlay = true)
linefill.new(line1, line2, color.new(color.green, 90))
// using Snap.DEFAULT to show that it is equivalent to drawing lines using `xloc.bar_time` (i.e., it aligns to the same bars)
startBarIndex := chartData.timestampToBarIndex(startTimeInput)
endBarIndex := chartData.timestampToBarIndex(endTimeInput)
line.new(startBarIndex, 0, startBarIndex, 1, extend = extend.both, color = color.yellow, width = 3)
line.new(endBarIndex, 0, endBarIndex, 1, extend = extend.both, color = color.yellow, width = 3)
line.new(startTimeInput, 0, startTimeInput, 1, xloc.bar_time, extend.both, color.new(color.blue, 85), width = 11)
line.new(endTimeInput, 0, endTimeInput, 1, xloc.bar_time, extend.both, color.new(color.blue, 85), width = 11)
• Get Price of Line at Timestamp
The pine script built-in function line.get_price() requires working with bar index values. To get the price of a line in terms of a timestamp, convert the timestamp into a bar index or offset.
//@version=6
indicator("Example `line.get_price()` at timestamp")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
lineStartInput = input.time(timestamp("01 Aug 2025 08:30 -0500"), "Line Start")
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData()
var diagonal = line.new(na, na, na, na, force_overlay = true)
if time <= lineStartInput
line.set_xy1(diagonal, bar_index, open)
if barstate.islastconfirmedhistory
line.set_xy2(diagonal, bar_index, close)
if barstate.islast
int timeOneWeekAgo = timenow - (7 * timeframe.in_seconds("1D") * 1000)
// Note: could also use `timetampToBarIndex(timeOneWeekAgo, Snap.DEFAULT)` and pass the value directly to `line.get_price()`
int barsOneWeekAgo = chartData.getNumberOfBarsBack(timeOneWeekAgo)
float price = line.get_price(diagonal, bar_index - barsOneWeekAgo)
string formatString = "Time 1 week ago: {0,number,#}\n - Equivalent to {1} bars ago\n\n𝚕𝚒𝚗𝚎.𝚐𝚎𝚝_𝚙𝚛𝚒𝚌𝚎(): {2,number,#.##}"
string labelText = str.format(formatString, timeOneWeekAgo, barsOneWeekAgo, price)
label.new(timeOneWeekAgo, price, labelText, xloc.bar_time, style = label.style_label_lower_right, size = 16, textalign = text.align_left, force_overlay = true)
█ RUNTIME ERROR MESSAGES
This library's functions will generate a custom runtime error message in the following cases:
𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() is not called consecutively, or is called more than once on a single bar
Invalid 𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚜𝙵𝚘𝚛𝚠𝚊𝚛𝚍 argument in the 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() function
Invalid 𝚟𝚊𝚛𝚒𝚊𝚋𝚕𝚎𝚜 argument in the 𝚌𝚘𝚕𝚕𝚎𝚌𝚝𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊() function
Invalid 𝚕𝚎𝚗𝚐𝚝𝚑 argument in any of the functions that accept a number of bars back
Note: there is no runtime error generated for an invalid 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚖𝚙 or 𝚋𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡 argument in any of the functions. Instead, the functions will assign 𝚗𝚊 to the returned values.
Any other runtime errors are due to incorrect usage of the library.
█ NOTES
• Function Descriptions
The library source code uses Markdown for the exported functions. Hover over a function/method call in the Pine Editor to display formatted, detailed information about the function/method.
//@version=6
indicator("Demo Function Tooltip")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData()
int barIndex = chartData.timestampToBarIndex(timenow)
log.info(str.tostring(barIndex))
• Historical vs. Realtime Behavior
Under the hood, the data collector for this library is declared as `var`. Because of this, the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object will always reflect the latest available data on realtime updates. Any data that is recorded for historical bars will remain unchanged throughout the execution of a script.
//@version=6
indicator("Demo Realtime Behavior")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
var map variables = map.new()
variables.put("open", open)
variables.put("close", close)
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
if barstate.isrealtime
varip float initialOpen = open
varip float initialClose = close
varip int updateCount = 0
updateCount += 1
float latestOpen = open
float latestClose = close
float recordedOpen = chartData.valueAtBarIndex("open", bar_index)
float recordedClose = chartData.valueAtBarIndex("close", bar_index)
string formatString = "# of updates: {0}\n\n𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗 at update #1: {1,number,#.##}\n𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 at update #1: {2,number,#.##}\n\n"
+ "𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗 at update #{0}: {3,number,#.##}\n𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 at update #{0}: {4,number,#.##}\n\n"
+ "𝚘𝚙𝚎𝚗 stored in memory: {5,number,#.##}\n𝚌𝚕𝚘𝚜𝚎 stored in memory: {6,number,#.##}"
string labelText = str.format(formatString, updateCount, initialOpen, initialClose, latestOpen, latestClose, recordedOpen, recordedClose)
label.new(bar_index, close, labelText, style = label.style_label_left, force_overlay = true)
• Collecting Chart Data for Other Contexts
If your use case requires collecting chart data from another context, avoid directly retrieving the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 object as this may exceed memory limits .
//@version=6
indicator("Demo Return Calculated Results")
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
timeInput = input.time(timestamp("01 Sep 2025 08:30 -0500"), "Time")
var int oneMinuteBarsAgo = na
// !ERROR - Memory Limits Exceeded
// chartDataArray = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", ChartData.collectChartData())
// oneMinuteBarsAgo := chartDataArray.last().getNumberOfBarsBack(timeInput)
// function that returns calculated results (a single integer value instead of an entire `ChartData` object)
getNumberOfBarsBack() =>
chartData = ChartData.collectChartData()
chartData.getNumberOfBarsBack(timeInput)
calculatedResultsArray = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", getNumberOfBarsBack())
oneMinuteBarsAgo := calculatedResultsArray.size() > 0 ? calculatedResultsArray.last() : na
if barstate.islast
string labelText = str.format("The selected timestamp occurs 1-minute bars ago", oneMinuteBarsAgo)
label.new(bar_index, hl2, labelText, style = label.style_label_left, size = 16, force_overlay = true)
• Memory Usage
The library's convenience and ease of use comes at the cost of increased usage of computational resources. For simple scripts, using this library will likely not cause any issues with exceeding memory limits. But for large and complex scripts, you can reduce memory issues by specifying a lower 𝚌𝚊𝚕𝚌_𝚋𝚊𝚛𝚜_𝚌𝚘𝚞𝚗𝚝 amount in the indicator() or strategy() declaration statement.
//@version=6
// !ERROR - Memory Limits Exceeded using the default number of bars available (~20,000 bars for Premium plans)
//indicator("Demo `calc_bars_count` parameter")
// Reduce number of bars using `calc_bars_count` parameter
indicator("Demo `calc_bars_count` parameter", calc_bars_count = 15000)
import n00btraders/ChartData/1
map variables = map.new()
variables.put("open", open)
variables.put("close", close)
variables.put("weekofyear", weekofyear)
variables.put("dayofmonth", dayofmonth)
variables.put("hour", hour)
variables.put("minute", minute)
variables.put("second", second)
// simulate large memory usage
chartData0 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData1 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData2 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData3 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData4 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData5 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData6 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData7 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData8 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
chartData9 = ChartData.collectChartData(variables)
log.info(str.tostring(chartData0.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData1.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData2.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData3.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData4.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData5.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData6.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData7.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData8.time(0)))
log.info(str.tostring(chartData9.time(0)))
if barstate.islast
result = table.new(position.middle_right, 1, 1, force_overlay = true)
table.cell(result, 0, 0, "Script Execution Successful ✅", text_size = 40)
█ EXPORTED ENUMS
Snap
Behavior for determining the bar that a timestamp belongs to.
Fields:
LEFT : Snap to the leftmost bar.
RIGHT : Snap to the rightmost bar.
DEFAULT : Default `xloc.bar_time` behavior.
Note: this enum is used for the 𝚜𝚗𝚊𝚙 parameter of 𝚝𝚒𝚖𝚎𝚜𝚝𝚊𝚖𝚙𝚃𝚘𝙱𝚊𝚛𝙸𝚗𝚍𝚎𝚡().
█ EXPORTED TYPES
Note: users of the library do not need to worry about directly accessing the fields of these types; all computations are done through method calls on an object of the 𝙲𝚑𝚊𝚛𝚝𝙳𝚊𝚝𝚊 type.
Variable
Represents a user-specified variable that can be tracked on every chart bar.
Fields:
name (series string) : Unique identifier for the variable.
values (array) : The array of stored values (one value per chart bar).
ChartData
Represents data for all bars on a chart.
Fields:
bars (series int) : Current number of bars on the chart.
timeValues (array) : The `time` values of all chart (and future) bars.
timeCloseValues (array) : The `time_close` values of all chart (and future) bars.
variables (array) : Additional custom values to track on all chart bars.
█ EXPORTED FUNCTIONS
collectChartData()
Collects and tracks the `time` and `time_close` value of every bar on the chart.
Returns: `ChartData` object to convert between `xloc.bar_index` and `xloc.bar_time`.
collectChartData(barsForward)
Collects and tracks the `time` and `time_close` value of every bar on the chart as well as a specified number of future bars.
Parameters:
barsForward (simple int) : Number of future bars to collect data for.
Returns: `ChartData` object to convert between `xloc.bar_index` and `xloc.bar_time`.
collectChartData(variables)
Collects and tracks the `time` and `time_close` value of every bar on the chart. Additionally, tracks a custom set of variables for every chart bar.
Parameters:
variables (simple map) : Custom values to collect on every chart bar.
Returns: `ChartData` object to convert between `xloc.bar_index` and `xloc.bar_time`.
collectChartData(barsForward, variables)
Collects and tracks the `time` and `time_close` value of every bar on the chart as well as a specified number of future bars. Additionally, tracks a custom set of variables for every chart bar.
Parameters:
barsForward (simple int) : Number of future bars to collect data for.
variables (simple map) : Custom values to collect on every chart bar.
Returns: `ChartData` object to convert between `xloc.bar_index` and `xloc.bar_time`.
█ EXPORTED METHODS
method timestampToBarIndex(chartData, timestamp, snap)
Converts a UNIX timestamp to a bar index.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
timestamp (series int) : A UNIX time.
snap (series Snap) : A `Snap` enum value.
Returns: A bar index, or `na` if unable to find the appropriate bar index.
method getNumberOfBarsBack(chartData, timestamp)
Converts a UNIX timestamp to a history-referencing length (i.e., number of bars back).
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
timestamp (series int) : A UNIX time.
Returns: A bar offset, or `na` if unable to find a valid number of bars back.
method timeAtBarIndex(chartData, barIndex)
Retrieves the `time` value for the specified bar index.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
barIndex (int) : The bar index.
Returns: The `time` value, or `na` if there is no `time` stored for the bar index.
method time(chartData, length)
Retrieves the `time` value of the bar that is `length` bars back relative to the latest bar.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
length (series int) : Number of bars back.
Returns: The `time` value `length` bars ago, or `na` if there is no `time` stored for that bar.
method timeCloseAtBarIndex(chartData, barIndex)
Retrieves the `time_close` value for the specified bar index.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
barIndex (series int) : The bar index.
Returns: The `time_close` value, or `na` if there is no `time_close` stored for the bar index.
method timeClose(chartData, length)
Retrieves the `time_close` value of the bar that is `length` bars back from the latest bar.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
length (series int) : Number of bars back.
Returns: The `time_close` value `length` bars ago, or `na` if there is none stored.
method valueAtBarIndex(chartData, name, barIndex)
Retrieves the value of a custom variable for the specified bar index.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
name (series string) : The variable name.
barIndex (series int) : The bar index.
Returns: The value of the variable, or `na` if that variable is not stored for the bar index.
method value(chartData, name, length)
Retrieves a variable value of the bar that is `length` bars back relative to the latest bar.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
name (series string) : The variable name.
length (series int) : Number of bars back.
Returns: The value `length` bars ago, or `na` if that variable is not stored for the bar index.
method getAllVariablesAtBarIndex(chartData, barIndex)
Retrieves all custom variables for the specified bar index.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
barIndex (series int) : The bar index.
Returns: Map of all custom variables that are stored for the specified bar index.
method getEarliestStoredData(chartData)
Gets all values from the earliest bar data that is currently stored in memory.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
Returns: A tuple:
method getLatestStoredData(chartData, futureData)
Gets all values from the latest bar data that is currently stored in memory.
Namespace types: ChartData
Parameters:
chartData (series ChartData) : The `ChartData` object.
futureData (series bool) : Whether to include the future data that is stored in memory.
Returns: A tuple:
Machine Learning Gaussian Mixture Model | AlphaNattMachine Learning Gaussian Mixture Model | AlphaNatt
A revolutionary oscillator that uses Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM) with unsupervised machine learning to identify market regimes and automatically adapt momentum calculations - bringing statistical pattern recognition techniques to trading.
"Markets don't follow a single distribution - they're a mixture of different regimes. This oscillator identifies which regime we're in and adapts accordingly."
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🤖 THE MACHINE LEARNING
Gaussian Mixture Models (GMM):
Unlike K-means clustering which assigns hard boundaries, GMM uses probabilistic clustering :
Models data as coming from multiple Gaussian distributions
Each market regime is a different Gaussian component
Provides probability of belonging to each regime
More sophisticated than simple clustering
Expectation-Maximization Algorithm:
The indicator continuously learns and adapts using the E-M algorithm:
E-step: Calculate probability of current market belonging to each regime
M-step: Update regime parameters based on new data
Continuous learning without repainting
Adapts to changing market conditions
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🎯 THREE MARKET REGIMES
The GMM identifies three distinct market states:
Regime 1 - Low Volatility:
Quiet, ranging markets
Uses RSI-based momentum calculation
Reduces false signals in choppy conditions
Background: Pink tint
Regime 2 - Normal Market:
Standard trending conditions
Uses Rate of Change momentum
Balanced sensitivity
Background: Gray tint
Regime 3 - High Volatility:
Strong trends or volatility events
Uses Z-score based momentum
Captures extreme moves
Background: Cyan tint
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💡 KEY INNOVATIONS
1. Probabilistic Regime Detection:
Instead of binary regime assignment, provides probabilities:
30% Regime 1, 60% Regime 2, 10% Regime 3
Smooth transitions between regimes
No sudden indicator jumps
2. Weighted Momentum Calculation:
Combines three different momentum formulas
Weights based on regime probabilities
Automatically adapts to market conditions
3. Confidence Indicator:
Shows how certain the model is (white line)
High confidence = strong regime identification
Low confidence = transitional market state
Line transparency changes with confidence
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⚙️ PARAMETER OPTIMIZATION
Training Period (50-500):
50-100: Quick adaptation to recent conditions
100: Balanced (default)
200-500: Stable regime identification
Number of Components (2-5):
2: Simple bull/bear regimes
3: Low/Normal/High volatility (default)
4-5: More granular regime detection
Learning Rate (0.1-1.0):
0.1-0.3: Slow, stable learning
0.3: Balanced (default)
0.5-1.0: Fast adaptation
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📊 TRADING STRATEGIES
Visual Signals:
Cyan gradient: Bullish momentum
Magenta gradient: Bearish momentum
Background color: Current regime
Confidence line: Model certainty
1. Regime-Based Trading:
Regime 1 (pink): Expect mean reversion
Regime 2 (gray): Standard trend following
Regime 3 (cyan): Strong momentum trades
2. Confidence-Filtered Signals:
Only trade when confidence > 70%
High confidence = clearer market state
Avoid transitions (low confidence)
3. Adaptive Position Sizing:
Regime 1: Smaller positions (choppy)
Regime 2: Normal positions
Regime 3: Larger positions (trending)
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🚀 ADVANTAGES OVER OTHER ML INDICATORS
vs K-Means Clustering:
Soft clustering (probabilities) vs hard boundaries
Captures uncertainty and transitions
More mathematically robust
vs KNN (K-Nearest Neighbors):
Unsupervised learning (no historical labels needed)
Continuous adaptation
Lower computational complexity
vs Neural Networks:
Interpretable (know what each regime means)
No overfitting issues
Works with limited data
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📈 PERFORMANCE CHARACTERISTICS
Best Market Conditions:
Markets with clear regime shifts
Volatile to trending transitions
Multi-timeframe analysis
Cryptocurrency markets (high regime variation)
Key Strengths:
Automatically adapts to market changes
No manual parameter adjustment needed
Smooth transitions between regimes
Probabilistic confidence measure
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🔬 TECHNICAL BACKGROUND
Gaussian Mixture Models are used extensively in:
Speech recognition (Google Assistant)
Computer vision (facial recognition)
Astronomy (galaxy classification)
Genomics (gene expression analysis)
Finance (risk modeling at investment banks)
The E-M algorithm was developed at Stanford in 1977 and is one of the most important algorithms in unsupervised machine learning.
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💡 PRO TIPS
Watch regime transitions: Best opportunities often occur when regimes change
Combine with volume: High volume + regime change = strong signal
Use confidence filter: Avoid low confidence periods
Multi-timeframe: Compare regimes across timeframes
Adjust position size: Scale based on identified regime
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⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
Machine learning adapts but doesn't predict the future
Best used with other confirmation indicators
Allow time for model to learn (100+ bars)
Not financial advice - educational purposes
Backtest thoroughly on your instruments
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🏆 CONCLUSION
The GMM Momentum Oscillator brings institutional-grade machine learning to retail trading. By identifying market regimes probabilistically and adapting momentum calculations accordingly, it provides:
Automatic adaptation to market conditions
Clear regime identification with confidence levels
Smooth, professional signal generation
True unsupervised machine learning
This isn't just another indicator with "ML" in the name - it's a genuine implementation of Gaussian Mixture Models with the Expectation-Maximization algorithm, the same technology used in:
Google's speech recognition
Tesla's computer vision
NASA's data analysis
Wall Street risk models
"Let the machine learn the market regimes. Trade with statistical confidence."
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Developed by AlphaNatt | Machine Learning Trading Systems
Version: 1.0
Algorithm: Gaussian Mixture Model with E-M
Classification: Unsupervised Learning Oscillator
Not financial advice. Always DYOR.
Supertrend [TradingConToto]Supertrend — ADX/DI + EMA Gap + Breakout (with Mobile UI)
What makes it original
Supertrend combines trend strength (ADX/DI), multi-timeframe bias (EMA63 and EMA 200D equivalent), a structural filter based on the distance between EMA2400 and EMA4800 expressed in ATR units, and a momentum confirmation through a previous high breakout.
This is not a random mashup — it’s a sequence of filters designed to reduce trades in ranging markets and prioritize mature trends:
Direction: +DI > -DI (trend led by buyers).
Strength: ADX > mean(ADX) (avoids weak, choppy phases).
Short-term bias: Close > EMA63.
Long-term bias: Close > EMA4800 ≈ EMA200 daily on H1.
Momentum: Close > High (immediate breakout).
Structure: (EMA2400 − EMA4800) > k·ATR (ensures separation in ATR units, filters out flat phases).
Entries & exits
Entry: when all six conditions are met and no open position exists.
Exit: if +DI < -DI or Close < EMA63.
Visuals: EMA63 is painted green while in position and red otherwise, with a supertrend-style band; “BUY” labels appear below the green band and “SELL” labels above the red band.
UI: includes a compact table (mobile-friendly) showing the state of each condition.
Default parameters used in this publication
Initial capital: 10,000
Position size: 10% of equity (≤10% per trade is considered sustainable).
Commission: 0.01% per side (adjust to your broker/market).
Slippage: 1 tick
Pyramiding: 0 (only one position at a time)
Adjust commission/slippage to match your market. For US equities, commissions are often per share; for spot crypto, 0.10–0.20% total is common. I publish with 0.01% per side as a conservative example to avoid overestimating results.
Recommended backtest dataset
Timeframe: H1
Multi-cycle window (e.g. 2015–today)
Symbols with high liquidity (e.g. NASDAQ-100 large caps, or BTC/ETH spot) to generate 100+ trades. Avoid cherry-picked short windows.
Why each filter matters
+DI > -DI + ADX > mean: reduce counter-trend trades and weak signals.
Close > EMA63 + Close > EMA4800: enforce trend alignment in short and long horizons.
Breakout High : requires immediate momentum, avoids early entries.
EMA gap in ATR units: blocks flat or compressed structures where EMA200D aligns with price.
Limitations
The breakout filter may skip healthy pullbacks; the design prioritizes continuation over perfect entry price.
No fixed trailing stop/TP; exits depend on trend degradation via DI/EMA63.
Results vary with real costs (commissions, slippage, funding). Adjust defaults to your broker.
How to use
Apply it on a clean chart (no other indicators when publishing).
Keep in mind the default parameters above; if you change them, mention it in your notes and use the same values in the Strategy Tester.
Ensure your dataset produces 100+ trades for statistical validity.
Dow Theory Indicator## 🎯 Key Features of the Indicator
### 📈 Complete Implementation of Dow Theory
- Three-tier trend structure: primary trend (50 periods), secondary trend (20 periods), and minor trend (10 periods).
- Swing point analysis: automatically detects critical swing highs and lows.
- Trend confirmation mechanism: strict confirmation logic based on consecutive higher highs/higher lows or lower highs/lower lows.
- Volume confirmation: ensures price moves are supported by trading volume.
### 🕐 Flexible Timeframe Parameters
All key parameters are adjustable, making it especially suitable for U.S. equities:
Trend analysis parameters:
- Primary trend period: 20–200 (default 50; recommended 50–100 for U.S. stocks).
- Secondary trend period: 10–100 (default 20; recommended 15–30 for U.S. stocks).
- Minor trend period: 5–50 (default 10; recommended 5–15 for U.S. stocks).
Dow Theory parameters:
- Swing high/low lookback: 5–50 (default 10).
- Trend confirmation bar count: 1–10 (default 3).
- Volume confirmation period: 10–100 (default 20).
### 🇺🇸 U.S. Market Optimizations
- Session awareness: distinguishes Regular Trading Hours (9:30–16:00 EST) from pre-market and after-hours.
- Pre/post-market weighting: adjustable weighting factor for signals during extended hours.
- Earnings season filter: automatically adjusts sensitivity during earnings periods.
- U.S.-optimized default parameters.
## 🎨 Visualization
1. Trend lines: three differently colored trend lines.
2. Background fill: green (uptrend) / red (downtrend) / gray (neutral).
3. Signal markers: arrows, labels, and warning icons.
4. Swing point markers: small triangles at key turning points.
5. Info panel: real-time display of eight key metrics.
## 🚨 Alert System
- Trend turning to up/down.
- Strong bullish/bearish signals (dual confirmation).
- Volume divergence warning.
- New swing high/low formed.
## 📋 How to Use
1. Open the Pine Editor in TradingView.
2. Copy the contents of dow_theory_indicator.pine.
3. Paste and click “Add to chart.”
4. Adjust parameters based on trading style:
- Long-term investing: increase all period parameters.
- Swing trading: use the default parameters.
- Short-term trading: decrease all period parameters.
## 💡 Parameter Tips for U.S. Stocks
- Large-cap blue chips (AAPL, MSFT): primary 60–80, secondary 25–30.
- Mid-cap growth stocks: primary 40–60, secondary 18–25.
- Small-cap high-volatility stocks: primary 30–50, secondary 15–20.
EMA20 Cross Strategy with countertrades and signalsEMA20 Cross Strategy Documentation
Overview
The EMA20 Cross Strategy with Counter-Trades and Instant Signals is a Pine Script (version 6) trading strategy designed for the TradingView platform. It implements an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossover system to generate buy and sell signals, with optional trend filtering, session-based trading, instant signal processing, and visual/statistical feedback. The strategy supports counter-trades (closing opposing positions before entering new ones) and operates with a fixed trade size in EUR.
Features
EMA Crossover Mechanism:
Uses a short-term EMA (configurable length, default: 1) and a long-term EMA (default: 20) to detect crossovers.
A buy signal is generated when the short EMA crosses above the long EMA.
A sell signal is generated when the short EMA crosses below the long EMA.
Instant Signals:
If enabled (useInstantSignals), signals are based on the current price crossing the short EMA, rather than waiting for the candle close.
This allows faster trade execution but may increase sensitivity to price fluctuations.
Trend Filter:
Optionally filters trades based on the trend direction (useTrendFilter).
Long trades are allowed only when the short EMA (or price, for instant signals) is above the long EMA.
Short trades are allowed only when the short EMA (or price) is below the long EMA.
Session Filter:
Restricts trading to specific market hours (sessionStart, default: 09:00–17:00) if enabled (useSessionFilter).
Ensures trades occur only during active market sessions, reducing exposure to low-liquidity periods.
Customizable Timeframe:
The EMA calculations can use a higher timeframe (e.g., 5m, 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D, default: 1H) via request.security.
This allows the strategy to base signals on longer-term trends while operating on a shorter-term chart.
Trade Management:
Fixed trade size of €100,000 per trade (tradeAmount), with a maximum quantity cap (maxQty = 10,000) to prevent oversized trades.
Counter-trades: Closes short positions before entering a long position and vice versa.
Trades are executed with a minimum quantity of 1 to ensure valid orders.
Visualization:
EMA Lines: The short EMA is colored based on the last signal (green for buy, red for sell, gray for neutral), and the long EMA is orange.
Signal Markers: Displays buy/sell signals as arrows (triangles) above/below candles if enabled (showSignalShapes).
Background/Candle Coloring: Optionally colors the chart background or candles green (bullish) or red (bearish) based on the trend (useColoredBars).
Statistics Display:
If enabled (useStats), a label on the chart shows:
Total closed trades
Open trades
Win rate (%)
Number of winning/losing trades
Profit factor (gross profit / gross loss)
Net profit
Maximum drawdown
Configuration Inputs
EMA Short Length (emaLength): Length of the short-term EMA (default: 1).
Trend EMA Length (trendLength): Length of the long-term EMA (default: 20).
Enable Trend Filter (useTrendFilter): Toggles trend-based filtering (default: true).
Color Candles (useColoredBars): Colors candles instead of the background (default: true).
Enable Session Filter (useSessionFilter): Restricts trading to specified hours (default: false).
Trading Session (sessionStart): Defines trading hours (default: 09:00–17:00).
Show Statistics (useStats): Displays performance stats on the chart (default: true).
Show Signal Arrows (showSignalShapes): Displays buy/sell signals as arrows (default: true).
Use Instant Signals (useInstantSignals): Generates signals based on live price action (default: false).
EMA Timeframe (emaTimeframe): Timeframe for EMA calculations (options: 5m, 15m, 1H, 4H, 1D; default: 1H).
Strategy Logic
Signal Generation:
Standard Mode: Signals are based on EMA crossovers (short EMA crossing long EMA) at candle close.
Instant Mode: Signals are based on the current price crossing the short EMA, enabling faster reactions.
Trade Execution:
On a buy signal, closes any short position and opens a long position.
On a sell signal, closes any long position and opens a short position.
Position size is calculated as the minimum of €100,000 or available equity, divided by the current price, capped at 10,000 units.
Filters:
Trend Filter: Ensures trades align with the trend direction (if enabled).
Session Filter: Restricts trades to user-defined market hours (if enabled).
Visual Feedback
EMA Lines: Provide a clear view of the short and long EMAs, with the short EMA’s color reflecting the latest signal.
Signal Arrows: Large green triangles (buy) below candles or red triangles (sell) above candles for easy signal identification.
Chart Coloring: Highlights bullish (green) or bearish (red) trends via background or candle colors.
Statistics Label: Displays key performance metrics in a label above the chart for quick reference.
Usage Notes
Initial Capital: €100,000 (configurable via initial_capital).
Currency: EUR (set via currency).
Order Processing: Orders are processed at candle close (process_orders_on_close=true) unless instant signals are enabled.
Dynamic Requests: Allows dynamic timeframe adjustments for EMA calculations (dynamic_requests=true).
Platform: Designed for TradingView, compatible with any market supported by the platform (e.g., stocks, forex, crypto).
Example Use Case
Scenario: Trading on a 5-minute chart with a 1-hour EMA timeframe, trend filter enabled, and session filter set to 09:00–17:00.
Behavior: The strategy will:
Calculate EMAs on the 1-hour timeframe.
Generate buy signals when the short EMA crosses above the long EMA (and price is above the long EMA).
Generate sell signals when the short EMA crosses below the long EMA (and price is below the long EMA).
Execute trades only during 09:00–17:00.
Display green/red candles and performance stats on the chart.
Limitations
Instant Signals: May lead to more frequent signals, increasing the risk of false positives in volatile markets.
Fixed Trade Size: Does not adjust dynamically based on market conditions beyond equity and max quantity limits.
Session Filter: Simplified and may not account for complex session rules or holidays.
Statistics: Displayed on-chart, which may clutter the view in smaller charts.
Customization
Adjust emaLength and trendLength to suit different market conditions (e.g., shorter for scalping, longer for swing trading).
Toggle useInstantSignals for faster or more stable signal generation.
Modify sessionStart to align with specific market hours.
Disable useStats or showSignalShapes for a cleaner chart.
This strategy is versatile for both manual and automated trading, offering flexibility for various markets and trading styles while providing clear visual and statistical feedback.
Live Market - Performance MonitorLive Market — Performance Monitor
Study material (no code) — step-by-step training guide for learners
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1) What this tool is — short overview
This indicator is a live market performance monitor designed for learning. It scans price, volume and volatility, detects order blocks and trendline events, applies filters (volume & ATR), generates trade signals (BUY/SELL), creates simple TP/SL trade management, and renders a compact dashboard summarizing market state, risk and performance metrics.
Use it to learn how multi-factor signals are constructed, how Greeks-style sensitivity is replaced by volatility/ATR reasoning, and how a live dashboard helps monitor trade quality.
________________________________________
2) Quick start — how a learner uses it (step-by-step)
1. Add the indicator to a chart (any ticker / timeframe).
2. Open inputs and review the main groups: Order Block, Trendline, Signal Filters, Display.
3. Start with defaults (OB periods ≈ 7, ATR multiplier 0.5, volume threshold 1.2) and observe the dashboard on the last bar.
4. Walk the chart back in time (use the last-bar update behavior) and watch how signals, order blocks, trendlines, and the performance counters change.
5. Run the hands-on labs below to build intuition.
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3) Main configurable inputs (what you can tweak)
• Order Block Relevant Periods (default ~7): number of consecutive candles used to define an order block.
• Min. Percent Move for Valid OB (threshold): minimum percent move required for a valid order block.
• Number of OB Channels: how many past order block lines to keep visible.
• Trendline Period (tl_period): pivot lookback for detecting highs/lows used to draw trendlines.
• Use Wicks for Trendlines: whether pivot uses wicks or body.
• Extension Bars: how far trendlines are projected forward.
• Use Volume Filter + Volume Threshold Multiplier (e.g., 1.2): requires volume to be greater than multiplier × average volume.
• Use ATR Filter + ATR Multiplier: require bar range > ATR × multiplier to filter noise.
• Show Targets / Table settings / Colors for visualization.
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4) Core building blocks — what the script computes (plain language)
Price & trend:
• Spot / LTP: current close price.
• EMA 9 / 21 / 50: fast, medium, slow moving averages to define short/medium trend.
o trend_bullish: EMA9 > EMA21 > EMA50
o trend_bearish: EMA9 < EMA21 < EMA50
o trend_neutral: otherwise
Volatility & noise:
• ATR (14): average true range used for dynamic target and filter sizing.
• dynamic_zone = ATR × atr_multiplier: minimum bar range required for meaningful move.
• Annualized volatility: stdev of price changes × sqrt(252) × 100 — used to classify volatility (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW).
Momentum & oscillators:
• RSI 14: overbought/oversold indicator (thresholds 70/30).
• MACD: EMA(12)-EMA(26) and a 9-period signal line; histogram used for momentum direction and strength.
• Momentum (ta.mom 10): raw momentum over 10 bars.
Mean reversion / band context:
• Bollinger Bands (20, 2σ): upper, mid, lower.
o price_position measures where price sits inside the band range as 0–100.
Volume metrics:
• avg_volume = SMA(volume, 20) and volume_spike = volume > avg_volume × volume_threshold
o volume_ratio = volume / avg_volume
Support & Resistance:
• support_level = lowest low over 20 bars
• resistance_level = highest high over 20 bars
• current_position = percent of price between support & resistance (0–100)
________________________________________
5) Order Block detection — concept & logic
What it tries to find: a bar (the base) followed by N candles in the opposite direction (a classical order block setup), with a minimum % move to qualify. The script records the high/low of the base candle, averages them, and plots those levels as OB channels.
How learners should think about it (conceptual):
1. An order block is a signature area where institutions (theory) left liquidity — often seen as a large bar followed by a sequence of directional candles.
2. This indicator uses a configurable number of subsequent candles to confirm that the pattern exists.
3. When found, it stores and displays the base candle’s high/low area so students can see how price later reacts to those zones.
Implementation note for learners: the tool keeps a limited history of OB lines (ob_channels). When new OBs exceed the count, the oldest lines are removed — good practice to avoid clutter.
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6) Trendline detection — idea & interpretation
• The script finds pivot highs and lows using a symmetric lookback (tl_period and half that as right/left).
• It then computes a trendline slope from successive pivots and projects the line forward (extension_bars).
• Break detection: Resistance break = close crosses above the projected resistance line; Support break = close crosses below projected support.
Learning tip: trendlines here are computed from pivot points and time. Watch how changing tl_period (bigger = smoother, fewer pivots) alters the trendlines and break signals.
________________________________________
7) Signal generation & filters — step-by-step
1. Primary triggers:
o Bullish trigger: order block bullish OR resistance trendline break.
o Bearish trigger: bearish order block OR support trendline break.
2. Filters applied (both must pass unless disabled):
o Volume filter: volume must be > avg_volume × volume_threshold.
o ATR filter: bar range (high-low) must exceed ATR × atr_multiplier.
o Not in an existing trade: new trades only start if trade_active is false.
3. Trend confirmation:
o The primary trigger is only confirmed if trend is bullish/neutral for buys or bearish/neutral for sells (EMA alignment).
4. Result:
o When confirmed, a long or short trade is activated with TP/SL calculated from ATR multiples.
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8) Trade management — what the tool does after a signal
• Entry management: the script marks a trade as trade_active and sets long_trade or short_trade flags.
• TP & SL rules:
o Long: TP = high + 2×ATR ; SL = low − 1×ATR
o Short: TP = low − 2×ATR ; SL = high + 1×ATR
• Monitoring & exit:
o A trade closes when price reaches TP or SL.
o When TP/SL hit, the indicator updates win_count and total_pnl using a very simple calculation (difference between TP/SL and previous close).
o Visual lines/labels are drawn for TP and updated as the trade runs.
Important learner notes:
• The script does not store a true entry price (it uses close in its P&L math), so PnL is an approximation — treat this as a learning proxy, not a position accounting system.
• There’s no sizing, slippage, or fee accounted — students must manually factor these when translating to real trades.
• This indicator is not a backtesting strategy; strategy.* functions would be needed for rigorous backtest results.
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9) Signal strength & helper utilities
• Signal strength is a composite score (0–100) made up of four signals worth 25 points each:
1. RSI extreme (overbought/oversold) → 25
2. Volume spike → 25
3. MACD histogram magnitude increasing → 25
4. Trend existence (bull or bear) → 25
• Progress bars (text glyphs) are used to visually show RSI and signal strength on the table.
Learning point: composite scoring is a way to combine orthogonal signals — study how changing weights changes outcomes.
________________________________________
10) Dashboard — how to read each section (walkthrough)
The dashboard is split into sections; here's how to interpret them:
1. Market Overview
o LTP / Change%: immediate price & daily % change.
2. RSI & MACD
o RSI value plus progress bar (overbought 70 / oversold 30).
o MACD histogram sign indicates bullish/bearish momentum.
3. Volume Analysis
o Volume ratio (current / average) and whether there’s a spike.
4. Order Block Status
o Buy OB / Sell OB: the average base price of detected order blocks or “No Signal.”
5. Signal Status
o 🔼 BUY or 🔽 SELL if confirmed, or ⚪ WAIT.
o No-trade vs Active indicator summarizing market readiness.
6. Trend Analysis
o Trend direction (from EMAs), market sentiment score (composite), volatility level and band/position metrics.
7. Performance
o Win Rate = wins / signals (percentage)
o Total PnL = cumulative PnL (approximate)
o Bull / Bear Volume = accumulated volumes attributable to signals
8. Support & Resistance
o 20-bar highest/lowest — use as nearby reference points.
9. Risk & R:R
o Risk Level from ATR/price as a percent.
o R:R Ratio computed from TP/SL if a trade is active.
10. Signal Strength & Active Trade Status
• Numeric strength + progress bar and whether a trade is currently active with TP/SL display.
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11) Alerts — what will notify you
The indicator includes pre-built alert triggers for:
• Bullish confirmed signal
• Bearish confirmed signal
• TP hit (long/short)
• SL hit (long/short)
• No-trade zone
• High signal strength (score > 75%)
Training use: enable alerts during a replay session to be notified when the indicator would have signalled.
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12) Labs — hands-on exercises for learners (step-by-step)
Lab A — Order Block recognition
1. Pick a 15–30 minute timeframe on a liquid ticker.
2. Use default OB periods (7). Mark each time the dashboard shows a Buy/Sell OB.
3. Manually inspect the chart at the base candle and the following sequence — draw the OB zone by hand and watch later price reactions to it.
4. Repeat with OB periods 5 and 10; note stability vs noise.
Lab B — Trendline break confirmation
1. Increase trendline period (e.g., 20), watch trendlines form from pivots.
2. When a resistance break is flagged, compare with MACD & volume: was momentum aligned?
3. Note false breaks vs confirmed moves — change extension_bars to see projection effects.
Lab C — Filter sensitivity
1. Toggle Use Volume Filter off, and record the number and quality of signals in a 2-day window.
2. Re-enable volume filter and change threshold from 1.2 → 1.6; note how many low-quality signals are filtered out.
Lab D — Trade management simulation
1. For each signalled trade, record the time, close entry approximation, TP, SL, and eventual hit/miss.
2. Compute actual PnL if you had entered at the open of the next bar to compare with the script’s PnL math.
3. Tabulate win rate and average R:R.
Lab E — Performance review & improvement
1. Build a spreadsheet of signals over 30–90 periods with columns: Date, Signal type, Entry price (real), TP, SL, Exit, PnL, Notes.
2. Analyze which filters or indicators contributed most to winners vs losers and adjust weights.
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13) Common pitfalls, assumptions & implementation notes (things to watch)
• P&L simplification: total_pnl uses close as a proxy entry price. Real entry/exit prices and slippage are not recorded — so PnL is approximate.
• No position sizing or money management: the script doesn’t compute position size from equity or risk percent.
• Signal confirmation logic: composite "signal_strength" is a simple 4×25 point scheme — explore different weights or additional signals.
• Order block detection nuance: the script defines the base candle and checks the subsequent sequence. Be sure to verify whether the intended candle direction (base being bullish vs bearish) aligns with academic/your trading definition — read the code carefully and test.
• Trendline slope over time: slope is computed using timestamps; small differences may make lines sensitive on very short timeframes — using bar_index differences is usually more stable.
• Not a true backtester: to evaluate performance statistically you must transform the logic into a strategy script that places hypothetical orders and records exact entry/exit prices.
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14) Suggested improvements for advanced learners
• Record true entry price & timestamp for accurate PnL.
• Add position sizing: risk % per trade using SL distance and account size.
• Convert to strategy. (Pine Strategy)* to run formal backtests with equity curves, drawdowns, and metrics (Sharpe, Sortino).
• Log trades to an external spreadsheet (via alerts + webhook) for offline analysis.
• Add statistics: average win/loss, expectancy, max drawdown.
• Add additional filters: news time blackout, market session filters, multi-timeframe confirmation.
• Improve OB detection: combine wick/body, volume spike at base bar, and liquidity sweep detection.
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15) Glossary — quick definitions
• ATR (Average True Range): measure of typical range; used to size targets and stops.
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): trend smoothing giving more weight to recent prices.
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): momentum oscillator; >70 overbought, <30 oversold.
• MACD: momentum oscillator using difference of two EMAs.
• Bollinger Bands: volatility bands around SMA.
• Order Block: a base candle area with subsequent confirmation candles; a zone of institutional interest (learning model).
• Pivot High/Low: local turning point defined by candles on both sides.
• Signal Strength: combined score from multiple indicators.
• Win Rate: proportion of signals that hit TP vs total signals.
• R:R (Risk:Reward): ratio of potential reward (TP distance) to risk (entry to SL).
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16) Limitations & assumptions (be explicit)
• This is an indicator for learning — not a trading robot or broker connection.
• No slippage, fees, commissions or tie-in to real orders are considered.
• The logic is heuristic (rule-of-thumb), not a guarantee of performance.
• Results are sensitive to timeframe, market liquidity, and parameter choices.
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17) Practical classroom / study plan (4 sessions)
• Session 1 — Foundations: Understand EMAs, ATR, RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands. Run the indicator and watch how these numbers change on a single day.
• Session 2 — Zones & Filters: Study order blocks and trendlines. Test volume & ATR filters and note changes in false signals.
• Session 3 — Simulated trading: Manually track 20 signals, compute real PnL and compare to the dashboard.
• Session 4 — Improvement plan: Propose changes (e.g., better PnL accounting, alternative OB rule) and test their impact.
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18) Quick reference checklist for each signal
1. Was an order block or trendline break detected? (primary trigger)
2. Did volume meet threshold? (filter)
3. Did ATR filter (bar size) show a real move? (filter)
4. Was trend aligned (EMA 9/21/50)? (confirmation)
5. Signal confirmed → mark entry approximation, TP, SL.
6. Monitor dashboard (Signal Strength, Volatility, No-trade zone, R:R).
7. After exit, log real entry/exit, compute actual PnL, update spreadsheet.
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19) Educational caveat & final note
This tool is built for training and analysis: it helps you see how common technical building blocks combine into trade ideas, but it is not a trading recommendation. Use it to develop judgment, to test hypotheses, and to design robust systems with proper backtesting and risk control before risking capital.
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20) Disclaimer (must include)
Training & Educational Only — This material and the indicator are provided for educational purposes only. Nothing here is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell financial instruments. Past simulated or historical performance does not predict future results. Always perform full backtesting and risk management, and consider seeking advice from a qualified financial professional before trading with real capital.
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Top and Bottom Probability
The top and bottom probability oscillator is an educational indicator that estimates the probability of a local top or bottom using four ingredients:
price extension since the last RSI overbought/oversold,
time since that OB/OS event,
RSI divergence strength,
Directional Momentum Velocity (DMV) — a normalized, signed trend velocity.
It plots RSI, two probability histograms (Top %, Bottom %), and an optional 0–100 velocity gauge.
How to read it
RSI & Levels: Standard RSI with OB/OS lines (70/30 by default).
Prob Top (%): Red histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing risk of a local top after an RSI overbought anchor.
Prob Bottom (%): Green histogram, 0–100. Higher values suggest increasing chance of a local bottom after an RSI oversold anchor.
Velocity (0–100): Optional line. Above 50 = positive/upward DMV; below 50 = negative/downward DMV. DMV pushes Top risk when trending down and Bottom chance when trending up.
These are composite, scale-free scores, not certainties or trade signals.
What the probabilities consider
Price Delta: How far price has moved beyond the last OB (for tops) or below the last OS (for bottoms). More extension → higher probability.
Time Since OB/OS: Longer time since the anchor → higher probability (until capped by the “Time Normalization (bars)” input).
Oscillator Divergence: RSI pulling away from its last OB/OS reading in the opposite direction implies weakening momentum and increases probability.
Directional Momentum Velocity (DMV):
Computes a regression slope of hlc3 vs. bar index, normalized by ATR, then squashed with tanh.
Downward DMV boosts Top probability; upward DMV boosts Bottom probability.
Toggle the velocity plot and adjust its sensitivity with Velocity Lookback, ATR Length, and Velocity Gain.
All four terms are blended with user-set weights. If Normalize Weights is ON, weights are rescaled to sum to 1.
Inputs (most useful)
RSI Length / OB / OS: Core RSI setup.
Time Normalization (bars): Sets how quickly the “time since OB/OS” term ramps from 0→1.
Weights:
Price Delta, Time Since OB/OS, Osc Divergence, Directional Velocity.
Turn Normalize Weights ON to keep the blend consistent when you experiment.
Settings:
Velocity Lookback: Window for slope estimation (shorter = more reactive).
ATR Length: Normalizes slope so symbols/timeframes are comparable.
Velocity Gain: Steepens or softens the tanh curve (higher = punchier extremes).
Show Velocity (0–100): Toggles the DMV display.
Tip: If you prefer momentum measured on RSI rather than price, in the DMV block replace hlc3 with rsi (concept stays identical).
Practical tips
Use Top/Bottom % as context, not triggers. Combine with structure (S/R), trend filters, and risk management.
On strong trends, expect the opposite probability (e.g., Top % during an uptrend) to stay suppressed longer.
Calibrate weights: e.g., raise Osc Divergence on mean-reversion symbols; raise Velocity in trending markets.
For lower noise: lengthen Velocity Lookback and ATR Length, or reduce Velocity Gain.
Intrabar Volume Delta — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)Intrabar Volume Delta Grid — RealTime + History (Stocks/Crypto/Forex)
# Short Description
Shows intrabar Up/Down volume, Delta (absolute/relative) and UpShare% in a compact grid for both real-time and historical bars. Includes an MTF (M1…D1) dashboard, contextual coloring, density controls, and alerts on Δ and UpShare%. Smart historical splitting (“History Mode”) for Crypto/Futures/FX.
---
# What it does (Quick)
* **UpVol / DownVol / Δ / UpShare%** — visualizes order-flow inside each candle.
* **Real-time** — accumulates intrabar volume live by tick-direction.
* **History Mode** — splits Up/Down on closed bars via simple or range-aware logic.
* **MTF Dashboard** — one table view across M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, D1 (Vol, Up/Down, Δ%, Share, Trend).
* **Contextual opacity** — stronger signals appear bolder.
* **Label density** — draw every N-th bar and limit to last X bars for performance.
* **Alerts** — thresholds for |Δ|, Δ%, and UpShare%.
---
# How it works (Real-Time vs History)
* **Real-time (open bar):** volume increments into **UpVolRT** or **DownVolRT** depending on last price move (↑ goes to Up, ↓ to Down). This approximates live order-flow even when full tick history isn’t available.
* **History (closed bars):**
* **None** — no split (Up/Down = 0/0). Safest for equities/indices with unreliable tick history.
* **Approx (Close vs Open)** — all volume goes to candle direction (green → Up 100%, red → Down 100%). Fast but yields many 0/100% bars.
* **Price Action Based** — splits by Close position within High-Low range; strength = |Close−mid|/(High−Low). Above mid → more Up; below mid → more Down. Falls back to direction if High==Low.
* **Auto** — **Stocks/Index → None**, **Crypto/Futures/FX → Approx**. If you see too many 0/100 bars, switch to **Price Action Based**.
---
# Rows & Meaning
* **Volume** — total bar volume (no split).
* **UpVol / DownVol** — directional intrabar volume.
* **Delta (Δ)** — UpVol − DownVol.
* **Absolute**: raw units
* **Relative (Δ%)**: Δ / (Up+Down) × 100
* **Both**: shows both formats
* **UpShare%** — UpVol / (Up+Down) × 100. >50% bullish, <50% bearish.
* Helpful icons: ▲ (>65%), ▼ (<35%).
---
# MTF Dashboard (🔧 Enable Dashboard)
A single table with **Vol, Up, Down, Δ%, Share, Trend (🔼/🔽/⏭️)** for selected timeframes (M1…D1). Great for a fast “panorama” read of flow alignment across horizons.
---
# Inputs (Grouped)
## Display
* Toggle rows: **Volume / Up / Down / Delta / UpShare**
* **Delta Display**: Absolute / Relative / Both
## Realtime & History
* **History Mode**: Auto / None / Approx / Price Action Based
* **Compact Numbers**: 1.2k, 1.25M, 3.4B…
## Theme & UI
* **Theme Mode**: Auto / Light / Dark
* **Row Spacing**: vertical spacing between rows
* **Top Row Y**: moves the whole grid vertically
* **Draw Guide Lines**: faint dotted guides
* **Text Size**: Tiny / Small / Normal / Large
## 🔧 Dashboard Settings
* **Enable Dashboard**
* **📏 Table Text Size**: Tiny…Huge
* **🦓 Zebra Rows**
* **🔲 Table Border**
## ⏰ Timeframes (for Dashboard)
* **M1…D1** toggles
## Contextual Coloring
* **Enable Contextual Coloring**: opacity by signal strength
* **Δ% cap / Share offset cap**: saturation caps
* **Min/Max transparency**: solid vs faint extremes
## Label Density & Size
* **Show every N-th bar**: draw labels only every Nth bar
* **Limit to last X bars**: keep labels only in the most recent X bars
## Colors
* Up / Down / Text / Guide
## Alerts
* **Delta Threshold (abs)** — |Δ| in volume units
* **UpShare > / <** — bullish/bearish thresholds
* **Enable Δ% Alert**, **Δ% > +**, **Δ% < −** — relative delta levels
---
# How to use (Quick Start)
1. Add the indicator to your chart (overlay=false → separate pane).
2. **History Mode**:
* Crypto/Futures/FX → keep **Auto** or switch to **Price Action Based** for richer history.
* Stocks/Index → prefer **None** or **Price Action Based** for safer splits.
3. **Label Density**: start with **Limit to last X bars = 30–150** and **Show every N-th bar = 2–4**.
4. **Contextual Coloring**: keep on to emphasize strong Δ% / Share moves.
5. **Dashboard**: enable and pick only the TFs you actually use.
6. **Alerts**: set thresholds (ideas below).
---
# Alerts (in TradingView)
Add alert → pick this indicator → choose any of:
* **Delta exceeds threshold** (|Δ| > X)
* **UpShare above threshold** (UpShare% > X)
* **UpShare below threshold** (UpShare% < X)
* **Relative Delta above +X%**
* **Relative Delta below −X%**
**Starter thresholds (tune per symbol & TF):**
* **Crypto M1/M5**: Δ% > +25…35 (bullish), Δ% < −25…−35 (bearish)
* **FX (tick volume)**: UpShare > 60–65% or < 40–35%
* **Stocks (liquid)**: set **Absolute Δ** by typical volume scale (e.g., 50k / 100k / 500k)
---
# Notes by Market Type
* **Crypto/Futures**: 24/7 and high liquidity — **Price Action Based** often gives nicer history splits than Approx.
* **Forex (FX)**: TradingView volume is typically **tick volume** (not true exchange volume). Treat Δ/Share as tick-based flow, still very useful intraday.
* **Stocks/Index**: historical tick detail can be limited. **None** or **Price Action Based** is a safer default. If you see too many 0/100% shares, switch away from Approx.
---
# “All Timeframes” accuracy
* Works on **any TF** (M1 → D1/W1).
* **Real-time accuracy** is strong for the open bar (live accumulation).
* **Historical accuracy** depends on your **History Mode** (None = safest, Approx = fastest/simplest, Price Action Based = more nuanced).
* The MTF dashboard uses `request.security` and therefore follows the same logic per TF.
---
# Trade Ideas (Use-Cases)
* **Scalping (M1–M5)**: a spike in Δ% + UpShare>65% + rising total Vol → momentum entries.
* **Intraday (M5–M30–H1)**: when multiple TFs show aligned Δ%/Share (e.g., M5 & M15 bullish), join the trend.
* **Swing (H4–D1)**: persistent Δ% > 0 and UpShare > 55–60% → structural accumulation bias.
---
# Advantages
* **True-feeling live flow** on the open bar.
* **Adaptable history** (three modes) to match data quality.
* **Clean visual layout** with guides, compact numbers, contextual opacity.
* **MTF snapshot** for quick bias read.
* **Performance controls** (last X bars, every N-th bar).
---
# Limitations & Care
* **FX uses tick volume** — interpret Δ/Share accordingly.
* **History Mode is an approximation** — confirm with trend/structure/liquidity context.
* **Illiquid symbols** can produce noisy or contradictory signals.
* **Too many labels** can slow charts → raise N, lower X, or disable guides.
---
# Best Practices (Checklist)
* Crypto/Futures: prefer **Price Action Based** for history.
* Stocks: **None** or **Price Action Based**; be cautious with **Approx**.
* FX: pair Δ% & UpShare% with session context (London/NY) and volatility.
* If labels overlap: tweak **Row Spacing** and **Text Size**.
* In the dashboard, keep only the TFs you actually act on.
* Alerts: start around **Δ% 25–35** for “punchy” moves, then refine per asset.
---
# FAQ
**1) Why do some closed bars show 0%/100% UpShare?**
You’re on **Approx** history mode. Switch to **Price Action Based** for smoother splits.
**2) Δ% looks strong but price doesn’t move — why?**
Δ% is an **order-flow** measure. Price also depends on liquidity pockets, sessions, news, higher-timeframe structure. Use confirmations.
**3) Performance slowdown — what to do?**
Lower **Limit to last X bars** (e.g., 30–100), increase **Show every N-th bar** (2–6), or disable **Draw Guide Lines**.
**4) Dashboard values don’t “match” the grid exactly?**
Dashboard is multi-TF via `request.security` and follows the history logic per TF. Differences are normal.
---
# Short “Store” Marketing Blurb
Intrabar Volume Delta Grid reveals the order-flow inside every candle (Up/Down, Δ, UpShare%) — live and on history. With smart history splitting, an MTF dashboard, contextual emphasis, and flexible alerts, it helps you spot momentum and bias across Crypto, Forex (tick volume), and Stocks. Tidy labels and compact numbers keep the panel readable and fast.
[GrandAlgo] Moving Averages Cross LevelsMoving Averages Cross Levels
Many traders watch for moving average crossovers – such as the golden cross (50 MA crossing above 200 MA) or death cross – as signals of changing trends. However, once a crossover happens, the exact price level where it occurred often fades from view, even though that level can be an important reference point. Moving Averages Cross Levels is an indicator that keeps those crossover price levels visible on your chart, helping you track where momentum shifts occurred and how price behaves relative to those key levels.
This tool plots horizontal line segments at the price where each pair of selected moving averages crossed within a recent window of bars. Each level is labeled with the moving average lengths (for example, “21×50” for a 21/50 MA cross) and is color-coded – green for bullish crossovers (short-term MA crossing above long-term MA) and red for bearish crossunders (short-term crossing below). By visualizing these crossover levels, you can quickly identify past trend change points and use them as potential support/resistance or decision levels in your trading. Importantly, this indicator is non-repainting – once a crossover level is plotted, it remains fixed at the historical price where the cross occurred, allowing you to continually monitor that level going forward. (As with any moving average-based analysis, crossover signals are lagging, so use these levels in conjunction with other tools for confirmation.)
Key Features:
✅ Multiple Moving Averages: Track up to 7 different MAs (e.g. 5, 8, 21, 50, 64, 83, 200 by default) simultaneously. You can enable/disable each MA and set its length, allowing flexible combinations of short-term and long-term averages.
✅ Selectable MA Type: Each average can be calculated as a Simple (SMA), Exponential (EMA), Volume-Weighted (VWMA), or Smoothed (RMA) moving average, giving you flexibility to match your preferred method.
✅ Auto Crossover Detection: The script automatically detects all crosses between any enabled MA pairs, so you don’t have to specify pairs manually. Whether it’s a fast cross (5×8) or a long-term cross (50×200), every crossover within the lookback period will be identified and marked.
✅ Horizontal Level Markers: For each detected crossover, a horizontal line segment is drawn at the exact price where the crossover occurred. This makes it easy to glance at your chart and see precisely where two moving averages intersected in the recent past.
✅ Labeled and Color-Coded: Each crossover line is labeled with the two MA lengths that crossed (e.g. “50×200”) for clear identification. Colors indicate crossover direction – by default green for bullish (positive) crossovers and red for bearish (negative) crossovers – so you can tell at a glance which way the trend shifted. (You can customize these colors in the settings.)
✅ Adjustable Lookback: A “Crosses with X candles” input lets you control how far back the script looks for crossovers to plot. This prevents your chart from getting cluttered with too many old levels – for example, set X = 100 to show crossovers from roughly the last 100 bars. Older crossover lines beyond this lookback window will automatically clear off the chart.
✅ Optional MA Plots: You can toggle the display of each moving average line on the chart. This means you can either view just the crossover levels alone for a clean look, or also overlay the MA curves themselves for additional context (to see how price and MAs were moving around the crossover).
✅ No Repainting or Hindsight Bias: Once a crossover level is plotted, it stays at that fixed price. The indicator doesn’t move levels around after the fact – each line is a true historical event marker. This allows you to backtest visually: see how price acted after the crossover by observing if it retested or respected that level later.
How It Works:
1️⃣ Add to Chart & Configure – Simply add the indicator to your chart. In the settings, choose which moving averages you want to include and set their lengths. For example, you might enable 21, 50, 200 to focus on medium and long-term crosses (including the golden cross), or turn on shorter MAs like 5 and 8 for quick momentum shifts. Adjust the lookback (number of bars to scan for crosses) if needed.
2️⃣ Visualization – The script continuously checks the latest X bars for any points where one MA crossed above or below another. Whenever a crossover is found, it calculates the exact price level at which the two moving averages intersected. On the last bar of your chart, it will draw a horizontal line segment extending from the crossover bar to the current bar at that price level, and place a label to the right of the line with the MA lengths. Green lines/labels signify bullish crossovers (where the first MA crossed above the second), and red lines indicate bearish crossunders.
3️⃣ On Your Chart – You will see these labeled levels aligned with the price scale. For example, if a 50 MA crossed above a 200 MA (bullish) 50 bars ago at price $100, there will be a green “50×200” line at $100 extending to the present, showing you exactly where that golden cross happened. You might notice price pulling back near that level and bouncing, or if price falls back through it, it could signal a failed crossover. The indicator updates in real-time: if a new crossover happens on the latest bar, a new line and label will instantly appear, and if any old cross moves out of the lookback range, its line is removed to keep the chart focused.
4️⃣ Customization – You can fine-tune the appearance: toggle any MA’s visibility, change line colors or label styles, and modify the lookback length to suit different timeframes. For instance, on a 1-hour chart you might use a lookback of 500 bars to see a few weeks of cross history, whereas on a daily chart 100 bars (about 4–5 months) may be sufficient. Adjust these settings based on how many crossover levels you find useful to display.
Ideal for Traders Who:
Use MA Crossovers in Strategy: If your strategy involves moving average crossovers (for trend confirmation or entry/exit signals), this indicator provides an extra layer of insight by keeping the price of those crossover events in sight. For example, trend-followers can watch if price stays above a bullish crossover level as a sign of trend strength, or falls below it as a sign of weakness.
Identify Support/Resistance from MA Events: Crossover levels often coincide with pivot points in market sentiment. A crossover can act like a regime change – the level where it happened may turn into support or resistance. This tool helps you mark those potential S/R levels automatically. Rather than manually noting where a golden cross occurred, you’ll have it highlighted, which can be useful for setting stop-losses (e.g. below the crossover price in a bullish scenario) or profit targets.
Track Multiple Averages at Once: Instead of focusing on just one pair of moving averages, you might be interested in the interaction of several (short, medium, and long-term trends). This indicator caters to that by plotting all relevant crossovers among your chosen MAs. It’s great for multi-timeframe thinkers as well – e.g. you could apply it on a higher timeframe chart to mark major cross levels, then drill down to lower timeframes knowing those key prices.
Value Clean Visualization: There are no flashing signals or arrows – just simple lines and labels that enhance your chart’s storytelling. It’s ideal if you prefer to make trading decisions based on understanding price interaction with technical levels rather than following automatic trade calls. Moving Averages Cross Levels gives you information to act on, without imposing any bias or strategy – you interpret the crossover levels in the context of your own trading system.
ATR Extension from Moving Average, with Robust Sigma Bands
# ATR Extension from Moving Average, with Robust Sigma Bands
**What it does**
This indicator measures how far price is from a selected moving average, expressed in **ATR multiples**, then overlays **robust sigma bands** around the long run central tendency of that extension. Positive values mean price is extended above the MA, negative values mean price is extended below the MA. The signal adapts to volatility through ATR, which makes comparisons consistent across symbols and regimes.
**Why it can help**
* Normalizes distance to an MA by ATR, which controls for changing volatility
* Uses the **bar’s extreme** against the MA, not just the close, so it captures true stretch
* Computes a **median** and **standard deviation** of the extension over a multi-year window, which yields simple, intuitive bands for trend and mean-reversion decisions
---
## Inputs
* **MA length**: default 50, options 200, 64, 50, 20, 9, 4, 3
* **MA timeframe**: Daily or Weekly. The MA is computed on the chosen higher timeframe through `request.security`.
* **MA type**: EMA or SMA
* **Years lookback**: 1 to 10 years, default 5. This sets the sample for the median and sigma calculation, `years * 365` bars.
* **Line width**: visual width of the plotted extension series
* **Table**: optional on-chart table that displays the current long run **median** and **sigma** of the extension, with selectable text size
**Fixed parameters in this release**
* **ATR length**: 20 on the daily timeframe
* **ATR type**: classic ATR. ADR percent is not enabled in this version.
---
## Plots and colors
* **Main plot**: “Extension from 50d EMA” by default. Value is in **ATR multiples**.
* **Reference lines**:
* `median` line, black dashed
* +2σ orange, +3σ red
* −2σ blue, −3σ green
---
## How it is calculated
1. **Moving average** on the selected higher timeframe: EMA or SMA of `close`.
2. **Extreme-based distance** from MA, as a percent of price:
* If `close > MA`, use `(high − MA) / close * 100`
* Else, use `(low − MA) / close * 100`
3. **ATR percent** on the daily timeframe: `ATR(20) / close * 100`
4. **ATR multiples**: extension percent divided by ATR percent
5. **Robust center and spread** over the chosen lookback window:
* Center: **median** of the ATR-multiple series
* Spread: **standard deviation** of that series
* Bands: center ± 1σ, 2σ, 3σ, with 2σ and 3σ drawn
This design yields an intuitive unit scale. A value of **+2.0** means price is about 2 ATR above the selected MA by the most stretched side of the current bar. A value of **−3.0** means roughly 3 ATR below.
---
## Practical use
* **Trend continuation**
* Sustained readings near or above **+1σ** together with a rising MA often signal healthy momentum.
* **Mean reversion**
* Spikes into **±2σ** or **±3σ** can identify stretched conditions for fade setups in range or late-trend environments.
* **Regime awareness**
* The **median** moves slowly. When median drifts positive for many months, the market spends more time extended above the MA, which often marks bullish regimes. The opposite applies in bearish regimes.
**Notes**
* The MA can be set to Weekly while ATR remains Daily. This is deliberate, it keeps the normalization stable for most symbols.
* On very short intraday charts, the extension remains meaningful since it references the session’s extreme against a higher-timeframe MA and a daily ATR.
* Symbols with short histories may not fill the lookback window. Bands will adapt as data accrues.
---
## Table overlay
Enable **Table → Show** to see:
* “ATR from \”
* Current **median** and **sigma** of the extension series for your lookback
---
## Recommended settings
* **Swing equities**: 50 EMA on Daily, 5 to 7 years
* **Index trend work**: 200 EMA on Daily, 10 years
* **Position trading**: 20 or 50 EMA on Weekly MA, 5 to 10 years
---
## Interpretation examples
* Reading **+2.7** with price above a rising 50 EMA, near prior highs
* Strong trend extension, consider pyramiding in trend systems or waiting for a pullback if you are a mean-reverter.
* Reading **−2.2** into multi-month support with flattening MA
* Stretch to the downside that often mean-reverts, size entries based on your system rules.
---
## Credits
The concept of measuring stretch from a moving average in ATR units has a rich community history. This implementation and its presentation draw on ideas popularized by **Jeff Sun**, **SugarTrader**, and **Steve D Jacobs**. Thanks to each for their contributions to ATR-based extension thinking.
---
## License
This script and description are distributed under **MPL-2.0**, consistent with the header in the source code.
---
## Changelog
* **v1.0**: Initial public release. Daily ATR normalization, EMA or SMA on D or W timeframe, robust median and sigma bands, optional table.
---
## Disclaimer
This tool is for educational use only. It is not financial advice. Always test on your own data and strategies, then manage risk accordingly.
