MACD StrategyThis script sends buy and sell signals as alerts to 3Commas (online software with trading bots in cryptocurreny)
It's based on 2 indicators:
- MACD
- 12 EMA and 26 EMA
When the 12 EMA and 26 EMA crossover, the MACD line crosses above 0. The goal here is to look for buy signals when the MACD and Signal are below 0, the histogram is positive, and there was or will be a 12 EMA and 26 EMA crossover.
I struggle with the following:
- There are multiple ways to use this as a crossover signal. I want to calculate the win rate of every posibility.
- What should be my take profit and my stoploss?
I think a 2:1 R/R,and a 60% win rate would make a great strategy! I could use some advice.
在脚本中搜索"12月1日给海æ°æ‰«ç 手ç»è´¹"
PowerX Strategy Bar Coloring [OFFICIAL VERSION]This script colors the bars according to the PowerX Strategy by Markus Heitkoetter:
The PowerX Strategy uses 3 indicators:
- RSI (7)
- Stochastics (14, 3, 3)
- MACD (12, 26 , 9)
The bars are colored GREEN if...
1.) The RSI (7) is above 50 AND
2.) The Stochastic (14, 3, 3) is above 50 AND
3.) The MACD (12, 26, 9) is above its Moving Average, i.e. MACD Histogram is positive.
The bars are colored RED if...
1.) The RSI (7) is below 50 AND
2.) The Stochastic (14, 3, 3) is below 50 AND
3.) The MACD (12, 26, 9) is below its Moving Average, i.e. MACD Histogram is negative.
If only 2 of these 3 conditions are met, then the bars are black (default color)
We highly recommend plotting the indicators mentioned above on your chart, too, so that you can see when bars are getting close to being "RED" or "GREEN", e.g. RSI is getting close to the 50 line.
Price Action and 3 EMAs Momentum plus Sessions FilterThis indicator plots on the chart the parameters and signals of the Price Action and 3 EMAs Momentum plus Sessions Filter Algorithmic Strategy. The strategy trades based on time-series (absolute) and relative momentum of price close, highs, lows and 3 EMAs.
I am still learning PS and therefore I have only been able to write the indicator up to the Signal generation. I plan to expand the indicator to Entry Signals as well as the full Strategy.
The strategy works best on EURUSD in the 15 minutes TF during London and New York sessions with 1 to 1 TP and SL of 30 pips with lots resulting in 3% risk of the account per trade. I have already written the full strategy in another language and platform and back tested it for ten years and it was profitable for 7 of the 10 years with average profit of 15% p.a which can be easily increased by increasing risk per trade. I have been trading it live in that platform for over two years and it is profitable.
Contributions from experienced PS coders in completing the Indicator as well as writing the Strategy and back testing it on Trading View will be appreciated.
STRATEGY AND INDICATOR PARAMETERS
Three periods of 12, 48 and 96 in the 15 min TF which are equivalent to 3, 12 and 24 hours i.e (15 min * period / 60 min) are the foundational inputs for all the parameters of the PA & 3 EMAs Momentum + SF Algo Strategy and its Indicator.
3 EMAs momentum parameters and conditions
• FastEMA = ema of 12 periods
• MedEMA = ema of 48 periods
• SlowEMA = ema of 96 periods
• All the EMAs analyse price close for up to 96 (15 min periods) equivalent to 24 hours
• There’s Upward EMA momentum if price close > FastEMA and FastEMA > MedEMA and MedEMA > SlowEMA
• There’s Downward EMA momentum if price close < FastEMA and FastEMA < MedEMA and MedEMA < SlowEMA
PA momentum parameters and conditions
• HH = Highest High of 48 periods from 1st closed bar before current bar
• LL = Lowest Low of 48 periods from 1st closed bar from current bar
• Previous HH = Highest High of 84 periods from 12th closed bar before current bar
• Previous LL = Lowest Low of 84 periods from 12th closed bar before current bar
• All the HH & LL and prevHH & prevLL are within the 96 periods from the 1st closed bar before current bar and therefore indicative of momentum during the past 24 hours
• There’s Upward PA momentum if price close > HH and HH > prevHH and LL > prevLL
• There’s Downward PA momentum if price close < LL and LL < prevLL and HH < prevHH
Signal conditions and Status (BuySignal, SellSignal or Neutral)
• The strategy generates Buy or Sell Signals if both 3 EMAs and PA momentum conditions are met for each direction and these occur during the London and New York sessions
• BuySignal if price close > FastEMA and FastEMA > MedEMA and MedEMA > SlowEMA and price close > HH and HH > prevHH and LL > prevLL and timeinrange (LDN&NY) else Neutral
• SellSignal if price close < FastEMA and FastEMA < MedEMA and MedEMA < SlowEMA and price close < LL and LL < prevLL and HH < prevHH and timeinrange (LDN&NY) else Neutral
Entry conditions and Status (EnterBuy, EnterSell or Neutral)(NOT CODED YET)
• ENTRY IS NOT AT THE SIGNAL BAR but at the current bar tick price retracement to FastEMA after the signal
• EnterBuy if current bar tick price <= FastEMA and current bar tick price > prevHH at the time of the Buy Signal
• EnterSell if current bar tick price >= FastEMA and current bar tick price > prevLL at the time of the Sell Signal
Smart labelling - Candlestick FunctionOftentimes a single look at the candlestick configuration happens to be enough to understand what is going on. The chandlestick function is an experiment in smart labelling that produces candles for various time frames, not only for the fixed 1m, 3m , 5m, 15m, etc. ones, and helps in decision-making when eye-balling the chart. This function generates up to 12 last candlesticks , which is generally more than enough.
Mind that since this is an experiment, the function does not cover all possible combinations. In some time frames the produced candles overlap. This is a todo item for those who are unterested. For instance, the current version covers the following TFs:
Chart - TF in the script
1m - 1-20,24,30,32
3m - 1-10
5m - 1-4,6,9,12,18,36
15m - 1-4,6,12
Tested chart TFs: 1m, 3m ,5m,15m. Tested securities: BTCUSD , EURUSD
[astropark] Power Tools Overlay//******************************************************************************
// Power Tools Overlay
// Inner Version 1.2.1 13/12/2018
// Developer: iDelphi
// Developer: astropark (Ichimoku Cloud), SMA EMA & Cross tools
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// 21/11/2018 Added EMA SMA WMA
// 21/11/2018 Added SMA-EMA EMA-WMA WMA-SMA (Thanks to mariobros1 for the idea of the Simultaneous MA)
// 21/11/2018 Added Bollinger Bands
// 21/11/2018 Added Ichimoku Cloud (Thanks to astropark for all the code of the Ichimoku Cloud)
// 23/11/2018 Show all the indicator as default
// 23/11/2018 Added a cross when single Moving Averages crossing (Thanks to astropark for the idea)
// 24/11/2018 Descriptions Fix
// 24/11/2018 Added Option to enable/disable all Moving Averages
// 10/12/2018 Added EMAs and Crosses
// 13/12/2018 indicator number fixes
//******************************************************************************
[Delphi] Power Tools OscillatorsFEATURES
- RSI
- Stochastic
//******************************************************************************
// Power Tools Oscillators
// Inner Version 1.0 04/12/2018
// Developer: iDelphi
//------------------------------------------------------------------------------
// 04/12/2018 Added RSI
// 04/12/2018 Added Stochastic
//******************************************************************************
Multi SMA EMA WMA HMA BB (4x3 MAs Bollinger Bands) Pro MTF - RRBMulti SMA EMA WMA HMA 4x3 Moving Averages with Bollinger Bands Pro MTF by RagingRocketBull 2018
Version 1.0
This indicator shows multiple MAs of any type SMA EMA WMA HMA etc with BB and MTF support, can show MAs as dynamically moving levels.
There are 4 MA groups + 1 BB group. You can assign any type/timeframe combo to a group, for example:
- EMAs 50,100,200 x H1, H4, D1, W1 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 1 type)
- EMAs 8,13,21,55,100,200 x M15, H1 (2 TFs x 6 MAs x 1 type)
- D1 EMAs and SMAs 12,26,50,100,200,400 (1 TF x 6 MAs x 2 types)
- H1 WMAs 7,77,231; H4 HMAs 50,100,200; D1 EMAs 144,169,233; W1 SMAs 50,100,200 (4 TFs x 3 MAs x 4 types)
- +1 extra MA type/timeframe for BB
compile time: 25-30 sec
full redraw time after parameter change in UI: 3 sec
There are several versions: Simple, MTF, Pro MTF, Advanced MTF and Ultimate MTF. This is the Pro MTF version. The Differences are listed below. All versions have BB
- Simple: you have 2 groups of MAs that can be assigned any type (5+5)
- MTF: +2 custom Timeframes for each group (2x5 MTF)
- Pro MTF: +4 custom Timeframes for each group (4x3 MTF), MA levels and show max bars back options
- Advanced MTF: +2 extra MAs/group (4x5 MTF), custom Ticker/Symbol, backreferences for type, TF and MA lengths in UI
- Ultimate MTF: +individual settings for each MA, custom Ticker/Symbols
Features:
- 4x3 = 12 MAs of any type including Hull Moving Average (HMA)
- 4x MTF groups with step line smoothing
- BB +1 extra TF/type for BB MAs
- 12 MA levels with adjustable group offsets, indents and shift
- show max bars back
- you can show/hide both groups of MAs/levels and individual MAs
Notes:
1. based on 3EmaBB, uses plot*, barssince and security functions
2. you can't set certain constants from input due to Pinescript limitations - change the code as needed, recompile and use as a private version
3. Levels = trackprice implementation
4. Show Max Bars Back = show_last implementation
5. uses timeframe textbox instead of input resolution to allow for 120 240 and other custom TFs. Also supports TFs in hours: 2H or H2
6. swma has a fixed length = 4, alma and linreg have additional offset and smoothing params
7. Smoothing is applied by default for visual aesthetics on MTF. To use exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping) - disable it
MTF Notes:
- uses simple timeframe textbox instead of input resolution dropdown to allow for 120, 240 and other custom TFs, also supports timeframes in H: 2H, H2
- Groups that are not assigned a Custom TF will use Current Timeframe (0).
- MTF will work for any MA type assigned to the group
- MTF works both ways: you can display a higher TF MA/BB on a lower TF or a lower TF MA/BB on a higher TF.
- MTF MA values are normally aligned at the boundary of their native timeframe. This produces stair stepping when a higher TF MA is viewed on a lower TF.
Therefore X Y Point Density/Smoothing is applied by default on MA MTF for visual aesthetics. Set both to 0 to disable and see exact ma mtf values (lines with stair stepping and original mtf alignment).
- Smoothing is disabled for BB MTF bands because fill doesn't work with smoothed MAs after duplicate values are replaced with na.
- MTF MA Value fluctuation is possible on the current bar due to default security lookahead
Smoothing:
- X,Y == 0 - X,Y smoothing disabled (stair stepping on high TFs)
- X == 0, Y > 0 - X,Y smoothing applied to all TFs
- Y == 0, X > 0 - X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf, Y smoothing disabled
- X > 0, Y > 0 - Y smoothing applied to all TFs, then X smoothing applied to all TFs < deltaX_max_tf
X Smoothing with Y == 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the first bar.
X Smoothing with Y > 0 - shows only every deltaX-th point starting from the last shown Y point, essentially filling huge gaps remaining after Y Smoothing with points and preserving the curve's general shape
X Smoothing on high TFs with already scarce points produces weird curve shapes, it works best only on high density lower TFs
Y Smoothing reduces points on all TFs, removes adjacent points with prices within deltaY, while preserving the smaller curve details.
A combination of X,Y produces the most accurate smoothing. Higher delta value - larger range, more points removed.
Show Max Bars Back:
- can't set plot show_last from input -> implemented using a timenow based range check
- you can't delete/modify history once plotted, so essentially it just sets a start point for plotting (from num_bars bars back) that works only in realtime mode (not in replay)
Levels:
You can plot current MA value using plot trackprice=true or by checking Show Price Line in Style. Problem is:
- you can only change color (not the dashed line style, width), have both ma + price line (not just the line), and it's full screen wide
- you can't set plot trackprice from input => implemented using plotshape/plotchar with fixed text labels serving as levels
- there's no other way of creating a dynamic level: hline, plot, offset - nothing else works.
- you can't plot a text var - all text strings must be constants, so you can't change the style, width and text labels without recompiling.
- from input you can only adjust offset, indent and shift for each level group, and change color
- the dot below each level line is the exact MA value. If you want just the line swap plotshape with plotchar, recompile and save as your private version, adjust Y shift.
To speed up redraw times: reduce last_bars to ~2000, recompile and use as your own private version
Pinescript is a rudimentary language (should be called Painscript instead) that can basically only plot data. You can't do much else. Please see the code for tips and hints.
Certain things just can't be done or require shady workarounds and weeks of testing trying to resolve weird node.js compiler errors.
Feel free to learn from/reuse/change the code as needed and use as your own private version. See comments in code. Good Luck!
Chart Fusion Line SND Detection by TitikSona🧭 Overview
Fusion Line Momentum Analyzer is a momentum visualization tool that introduces a unified model of oscillator fusion.
It blends Fast and Slow Stochastics with RSI into one adaptive curve, designed to eliminate conflicting signals between different momentum sources.
Instead of reading three separate oscillators, the Fusion Line provides a consolidated view of strength and exhaustion zones in a single framework.
This approach helps analysts detect aligned momentum shifts with greater clarity and less noise, without repainting or lagging methods.
⚙️ Core Concept
Traditional oscillators often provide conflicting readings when volatility changes.
To solve this, the Fusion Line averages three normalized components:
Fast Stochastic (12,3,3) — reacts quickly to short-term momentum spikes.
Slow Stochastic (100,8,8) — filters long-term momentum context.
RSI (26) — measures internal strength between buying and selling pressure.
Each is rescaled to a 0–100 range, then averaged into a single curve called the Fusion Line.
A secondary Signal Line (SMA 9) is added to visualize directional confirmation.
This combination aims to preserve responsiveness from the fast components while maintaining structural stability from the slow and RSI layers.
🌈 Features
Unified momentum curve combining stochastic and RSI dynamics.
Automatic bias shading to highlight dominant trend direction.
Real-time percentage strength meter (visual intensity).
Configurable alert triggers on key momentum zones (20/80).
Clean chart display without unnecessary elements or overlays.
📘 Interpretation
Rising Fusion Line → indicates strengthening bullish momentum.
Falling Fusion Line → indicates strengthening bearish pressure.
Fusion values below 20 → potential oversold recovery.
Fusion values above 80 → possible exhaustion or reversal zone.
Mid-zone movement → reflects equilibrium or sideways momentum.
These readings should always be combined with higher timeframe structure or volume confirmation for context.
⚙️ Default Parameters
Fast Stochastic (12,3,3)
Slow Stochastic (100,8,8)
RSI Length (26)
Signal Line Smoothing (9)
All values can be adjusted to adapt to asset volatility or timeframe conditions.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is a research and visualization tool, not a signal generator.
It does not predict price movement or guarantee performance.
Use for analytical purposes only and combine with your own trading framework.
👨💻 Developer
Created by TitikSona — Research & Fusion Concept Designer
Built using Pine Script v6
Type: Open-source educational script
💬 Short Description
Fusion-based momentum visualization combining Double Stochastic and RSI into one adaptive line for clearer, noise-free momentum analysis.
RSI VWAP v1 [JopAlgo]RSI VWAP v1.1 made stronger by volume-aware!
We know there's nothing new and the original RSI already does an excellent job. We're just working on small, practical improvements – here's our take: The same basic idea, clearer display, and a single, specially developed rolling line: a VWAP of the RSI that incorporates volume (participation) into the calculation.
Do you prefer the pure classic?
You can still use Wilder or Cutler engines –
but the star here is the VW-RSI + rolling line.
This RSI also offers the possibility of illustrating a possible
POC (Point of Control - or the HAL or VAL) level.
However, the indicator does NOT plot any of these levels itself.
We have included an illustration in the chart for this!
We hope this version makes your decision-making easier.
What you’ll see
The RSI line with a 50 midline and optional bands: either static 70/30 or adaptive μ±k·σ of the Rolling Line.
One smoothing concept only: the Rolling Line (light blue) = VWAP of RSI.
Shadow shading between RSI and the Rolling Line (green when RSI > line, red when RSI < line).
A lighter tint only on the parts of that shadow that sit above the upper band or below the lower band (quick overbought/oversold context).
Simple divergence lines drawn from RSI pivots (green for regular bullish, red for regular bearish). No labels, no buy/sell text—kept deliberately clean.
What’s new, and why it helps
VW-RSI engine (default):
RSI can be computed from volume-weighted up/down moves, so momentum reflects how much traded when price moved—not just the direction.
Rolling Line (VWAP of RSI) with pure VWAP adaptation:
Low volume: blends toward a faster VWAP so early, thin starts aren’t missed.
Volume spikes: blends toward a slower VWAP so a single heavy bar doesn’t whip the curve.
You can reveal the Base Rolling (pre-adaptation) line to see exactly how much adaptation is happening.
Adaptive bands (optional):
Instead of fixed 70/30, use mean ± k·stdev of the Rolling Line over a lookback. Levels breathe with the market—useful in strong trends where static bounds stay pinned.
Minimal, readable panel:
One smoothing, one story. The shadow tells you who’s in control; the lighter highlight shows stretch beyond your lines.
How to read it (fast)
Bias: RSI above 50 (and a rising Rolling Line) → bullish bias; below 50 → bearish bias.
Trigger: RSI crossing the Rolling Line with the bias (e.g., above 50 and crossing up).
Stretch: Near/above the upper band, avoid chasing; near/below the lower band, avoid panic—prefer a cross back through the line.
Divergence lines: Use as context, not as standalone signals. They often help you wait for the next cross or avoid late entries into exhaustion.
Settings that actually matter
RSI Engine: VW-RSI (default), Wilder, or Cutler.
Rolling Line Length: the VWAP length on RSI (higher = calmer, lower = earlier).
Adaptive behavior (pure VWAP):
Speed-up on Low Volume → blends toward fast VWAP (factor of your length).
Dampen Spikes (volume z-score) → blends toward slow VWAP.
Fast/Slow Factors → how far those fast/slow variants sit from the base length.
Bands: choose Static 70/30 or Adaptive μ±k·σ (set the lookback and k).
Visuals: show/hide Base Rolling (ref), main shadow, and highlight beyond bands.
Signal gating: optional “ignore first bars” per day/session if you dislike open noise.
Starter presets
Scalp (1–5m): RSI 9–12, Rolling 12–18, FastFactor ~0.5, SlowFactor ~2.0, Adaptive on.
Intraday (15m–1H): RSI 10–14, Rolling 18–26, Bands k = 1.0–1.4.
Swing (4H–1D): RSI 14–20, Rolling 26–40, Bands k = 1.2–1.8, Adaptive on.
Where it shines (and limits)
Best: liquid markets where volume structure matters (majors, indices, large caps).
Works elsewhere: even with imperfect volume, the shadow + bands remain useful.
Limits: very thin/illiquid assets reduce the benefit of volume-weighting—lengthen settings if needed.
Attribution & License
Based on the concept and baseline implementation of the “Relative Strength Index” by TradingView (Pine v6 built-in).
Released as Open-source (MPL-2.0). Please keep the license header and attribution intact.
Disclaimer
For educational purposes only; not financial advice. Markets carry risk. Test first, use clear levels, and manage risk. This project is independent and not affiliated with or endorsed by TradingView.
Smart RR Lot (Forex) — RR + Lot auto (Final v6 Stable)//@version=6
indicator("Smart RR Lot (Forex) — RR + Lot auto (Final v6 Stable)", overlay=true, max_lines_count=12, max_labels_count=12)
// ===== Paramètres du compte =====
acc_currency = input.string("EUR", "Devise du compte", options= )
account_balance = input.float(6037.0, "Solde du compte", step=1.0)
risk_pct = input.float(1.0, "Risque par trade (%)", step=0.1, minval=0.01)
// ===== Niveaux à placer sur le graphique =====
entry_price = input.price(1.1000, "Entry (cliquer la pipette)")
sl_price = input.price(1.0990, "Stop Loss (cliquer la pipette)")
tp_price = input.price(1.1010, "Take Profit (cliquer la pipette)")
// ===== Taille du pip (Forex) =====
isJPYpair = str.contains(syminfo.ticker, "JPY")
pip_size = isJPYpair ? 0.01 : 0.0001
// ===== Valeur du pip (1 lot = 100 000 unités) =====
pip_value_quote = 100000.0 * pip_size
quote_ccy = syminfo.currency
// ===== Conversion QUOTE → devise du compte =====
f_rate(sym) =>
request.security(sym, "D", close, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
f_conv_to_account(quote, acc) =>
acc_equals = quote == acc
if acc_equals
1.0
else
r1 = f_rate(acc + quote)
r2 = f_rate(quote + acc)
float res = na
if not na(r1)
res := 1.0 / r1
else if not na(r2)
res := r2
else
res := 1.0
res
quote_to_account = f_conv_to_account(quote_ccy, acc_currency)
pip_value_account = pip_value_quote * quote_to_account
// ===== Calcul RR & taille de lot =====
stop_dist_points = math.abs(entry_price - sl_price)
tp_dist_points = math.abs(tp_price - entry_price)
distance_pips = stop_dist_points / pip_size
rr = tp_dist_points / stop_dist_points
risk_amount = account_balance * (risk_pct * 0.01)
lot_size = distance_pips > 0 ? (risk_amount / (distance_pips * pip_value_account)) : na
lot_size_clamped = na(lot_size) ? na : math.max(lot_size, 0)
// ====== Lignes horizontales ======
var line lEntry = na
var line lSL = na
var line lTP = na
f_hline(line_id, float y, color colr) =>
var line newLine = na
if na(line_id)
newLine := line.new(bar_index - 1, y, bar_index, y, xloc=xloc.bar_index, extend=extend.right, color=colr, width=2)
else
line.set_xy1(line_id, bar_index - 1, y)
line.set_xy2(line_id, bar_index, y)
line.set_color(line_id, colr)
line.set_extend(line_id, extend.right)
newLine := line_id
newLine
colEntry = color.new(color.gray, 0)
colSL = color.new(color.red, 0)
colTP = color.new(color.teal, 0)
lEntry := f_hline(lEntry, entry_price, colEntry)
lSL := f_hline(lSL, sl_price, colSL)
lTP := f_hline(lTP, tp_price, colTP)
// ===== Labels d’informations =====
var label infoLbl = na
var label lblEntry = na
var label lblSL = na
var label lblTP = na
txtInfo = "RR = " + (na(rr) ? "—" : str.tostring(rr, "#.##")) +
" | Lot = " + (na(lot_size_clamped) ? "—" : str.tostring(lot_size_clamped, "#.##")) +
" (" + acc_currency + ")\n" +
"Risque " + str.tostring(risk_pct, "#.##") + "% = " + str.tostring(risk_amount, "#.##") + " " + acc_currency
midY = (entry_price + tp_price) * 0.5
if na(infoLbl)
infoLbl := label.new(bar_index, midY, txtInfo, xloc=xloc.bar_index, style=label.style_label_right, textcolor=color.white, color=color.new(color.black, 0))
else
label.set_x(infoLbl, bar_index)
label.set_y(infoLbl, midY)
label.set_text(infoLbl, txtInfo)
entryTxt = "ENTRY\n" + str.tostring(entry_price, format.price)
slTxt = "SL\n" + str.tostring(sl_price, format.price)
tpTxt = "TP\n" + str.tostring(tp_price, format.price)
if na(lblEntry)
lblEntry := label.new(bar_index, entry_price, entryTxt, xloc=xloc.bar_index, style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.white, color=color.new(colEntry, 0))
else
label.set_x(lblEntry, bar_index)
label.set_y(lblEntry, entry_price)
label.set_text(lblEntry, entryTxt)
if na(lblSL)
lblSL := label.new(bar_index, sl_price, slTxt, xloc=xloc.bar_index, style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.white, color=color.new(colSL, 0))
else
label.set_x(lblSL, bar_index)
label.set_y(lblSL, sl_price)
label.set_text(lblSL, slTxt)
if na(lblTP)
lblTP := label.new(bar_index, tp_price, tpTxt, xloc=xloc.bar_index, style=label.style_label_down, textcolor=color.white, color=color.new(colTP, 0))
else
label.set_x(lblTP, bar_index)
label.set_y(lblTP, tp_price)
label.set_text(lblTP, tpTxt)
ICT Killzones & MacrosICT Killzones & Macros (v1.1.5) — configurable ICT session windows + refined “macro” windows with live High/Low levels, optional extensions, next-window previews, and lightweight opening-price lines. Built to be clock-robust, timezone-aware, and performant on intraday charts.
Tip: All times are interpreted in your chosen IANA timezone (default: America/New_York) and auto-handle DST. You can rename, recolor, enable/disable, and retime every window.
What it plots
- Killzones (5) : Asia (19:00–02:00), London (02:00–05:00), NY AM (07:00–09:30), London Close (10:00–12:00), NY PM (13:30–16:00) — full-height boxes with optional header.
- Macros (8) (defaults tailored for common ICT “refined” windows): Asia-1 (18:00–21:00), Asia-2 (21:00–00:00), London-1 (01:00–04:00), AM-1 (09:45–10:15), AM-2 (10:45–11:15), Lunch (12:00–13:00), PM-1 (13:30–14:30), Power Hour (15:10–16:00).
- Live High/Low lines for the current Macro/Killzone window.
- Optional HL extension to the right until price crosses or the trading day rolls (style selectable).
- “Next” previews : earliest upcoming Macro and Killzone header; optional next-window background band.
- Opening Prices (3 lightweight time lines) : defaults 00:00, 08:30, 09:30 with right-edge labels, scoped to a session you choose (auto-cleans at session end).
- Key inputs & styling
- General : Timezone (IANA), “Sessions to show” (per window) to keep only the last N completed windows.
- Header : height (ticks), gap (ticks), fill opacity, border width/style, text size/color, toggle “Next Macro/Killzone” headers.
- Boxes : global fill opacity, global border width/style (used by both Macros & Killzones).
- High/Low : show HL, HL line style, extend on/off + extension style, optional extension labels.
- Opening Prices : enable Time 1/2/3, set HH:MM for each, session window, per-line colors, style (dotted/dashed/solid), width.
- Per-window controls : each Macro/Killzone has Enable, Session (HHMM-HHMM), Label, Fill color.
How to use (quick start)
- Set Timezone to your preference (default America/New_York).
- Toggle on the Macros and Killzones you trade. Adjust session times if needed.
- (Optional) Turn on Extend High/Low to project levels until crossed/day-roll.
- (Optional) Enable Next… headers to see the next upcoming window at a glance.
- (Optional) Configure Opening Prices (00:00 / 08:30 / 09:30 by default) and the session over which they appear.
Behavior & notes
- Time windows are computed by clock, not by guessing bar timestamps, making them robust across brokers and timeframes.
- With HL extension on, the current window’s levels extend until crossed or the end of the trading day (in your timezone). With it off, completed windows keep static HL markers (limited by “Sessions to show”).
- “Sessions to show” applies per Macro/Killzone to automatically prune older windows and keep charts snappy.
- Opening-price lines exist only within the chosen “Opening Prices Session” and are removed when it ends (keeps charts clean).
Defaults (color cues)
Killzones: Asia (blue), London (purple), NY AM (green), London Close (yellow), NY PM (orange).
Macros: neutral greys with Lunch and PM accents out of the box (all customizable).
Performance tips
- Reduce “Sessions to show” if you scroll far back in history.
- Disable “Next…” previews and/or extension labels on very slow machines.
- Narrow the “Opening Prices Session” window to exactly when you need those lines.
Changelog highlights
- v1.1.5 : Internal refinements and stability.
- v1.1.3 : Live High/Low lines for current windows + optional extension.
- v1.1.2 : Added “next Killzone” preview (to match “next Macro”).
- v1.1.0 : Defaults updated (5 KZ, 8 Macros). Removed “snap-to-killzone” behavior.
- v1.0.0 : Independent Macro vs. Killzone rendering; cleaner header logic.
- Known limitations
If your chart warns about drawings, trim “Sessions to show”.
If your broker session times differ from NY hours, adjust the sessions or change the indicator timezone.
Credits & intent
Inspired by ICT timing concepts; provided for education/mark-up, not financial advice.
Built to be flexible so you can mirror your personal playbook and journaling workflow.
Lucas' Money GlitchHere's a description you can use to publish your indicator to TradingView:
Title: Triple SuperTrend + RSI + Fib BB + Volume Oscillator
Short Description:
Advanced multi-indicator system combining three SuperTrends, RSI, Fibonacci Bollinger Bands, DEMA filter, and Volume Oscillator for precise trade entry and exit signals.
Full Description:
Overview
This comprehensive trading indicator combines multiple proven technical analysis tools to identify high-probability trade setups with built-in risk management through automated take profit levels.
Key Features
📊 Triple SuperTrend System
Uses three SuperTrend indicators with different ATR periods (10, 11, 12) and multipliers (1.0, 2.0, 3.0)
Requires all three SuperTrends to align before generating signals
Reduces false signals and confirms trend strength
📈 Volume Oscillator Filter
Calculates volume momentum using short and long-term moving averages
Requires volume oscillator to be above 20% threshold for trade entries
Ensures trades only occur during periods of strong volume activity
Displayed as a clean histogram in separate pane (green = bullish, red = bearish)
🎯 RSI Confirmation
7-period RSI must be above 50 for buy signals
RSI must be below 50 for sell signals
Prevents counter-trend entries
🌊 200 DEMA Trend Filter
Double Exponential Moving Average acts as major trend filter
Optional: Only buy above DEMA, only sell below DEMA
Can be toggled on/off based on trading style
📐 Fibonacci Bollinger Bands
Uses 2.618 Fibonacci multiplier (Golden Ratio)
200-period basis
Price touching bands triggers exit signals
Helps identify overextended moves
Entry Signals
BUY Signal (Green Triangle):
All three SuperTrends turn bullish simultaneously
RSI > 50
Price above 200 DEMA (if filter enabled)
Volume Oscillator > 20%
SELL Signal (Red Triangle):
All three SuperTrends turn bearish simultaneously
RSI < 50
Price below 200 DEMA (if filter enabled)
Volume Oscillator > 20%
Exit Signals
Automatic Exits Occur When:
Any of the three SuperTrends changes direction
Price touches Fibonacci Bollinger Band (upper or lower)
Take Profit target is reached (1.5x the distance from entry to ST1)
Exit Labels:
🟠 "TP" = Take Profit hit
🟡 "X" = SuperTrend change or BB touch
Visual Elements
Orange Line: Dynamic take profit level based on SuperTrend distance
Green/Red Lines: Three SuperTrend levels (varying opacity)
Purple Bands: Fibonacci Bollinger Bands with shaded area
Blue Line: 200 DEMA
Background Tint: Green when all bullish, red when all bearish
Volume Histogram: Separate pane showing volume oscillator
Dashboard Display
Real-time information table showing:
Current position status (Long/Short/Flat)
RSI value
Volume Oscillator percentage
Overall trend direction
Alert Conditions
Set up custom alerts for:
Buy signals
Sell signals
Take profit hits
Exit signals
Customizable Parameters
SuperTrend Settings:
Individual ATR periods and multipliers for each SuperTrend
Default: ST1(10,1.0), ST2(11,2.0), ST3(12,3.0)
Volume Oscillator:
Short length (default: 5)
Long length (default: 10)
Threshold percentage (default: 20%)
Toggle filter on/off
Other Filters:
RSI length (default: 7)
DEMA length (default: 200)
Fib BB length and multiplier
Take profit multiplier (default: 1.5x)
Best Use Cases
Trend following strategies
Swing trading
Day trading on higher timeframes (15min+)
Works on all markets: Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Futures
Notes
This is an indicator, not an automated strategy
Signals are for informational purposes only
Always practice proper risk management
Test on historical data before live trading
Works best in trending markets
Triple SuperTrend + RSI + Fib BBTriple SuperTrend + RSI + Fibonacci Bollinger Bands Strategy
📊 Overview
This advanced trading strategy combines the power of three SuperTrend indicators with RSI confirmation and Fibonacci Bollinger Bands to generate high-probability trade signals. The strategy is designed to capture strong trending moves while filtering out false signals through multi-indicator confluence.
🔧 Core Components
Three SuperTrend Indicators
The strategy uses three SuperTrend indicators with progressively longer periods and multipliers:
SuperTrend 1: 10-period ATR, 1.0 multiplier (fastest, most sensitive)
SuperTrend 2: 11-period ATR, 2.0 multiplier (medium sensitivity)
SuperTrend 3: 12-period ATR, 3.0 multiplier (slowest, most stable)
This layered approach ensures that all three timeframe perspectives align before generating a signal, significantly reducing false entries.
RSI Confirmation (7-period)
The Relative Strength Index acts as a momentum filter:
Long signals require RSI > 50 (bullish momentum)
Short signals require RSI < 50 (bearish momentum)
This prevents entries during weak or divergent price action.
Fibonacci Bollinger Bands (200, 2.618)
Uses a 200-period Simple Moving Average with 2.618 standard deviation bands (Fibonacci ratio). These bands serve dual purposes:
Visual representation of price extremes
Automatic exit trigger when price reaches overextended levels
📈 Entry Logic
LONG Entry (BUY Signal)
A LONG position is opened when ALL of the following conditions are met simultaneously:
All three SuperTrend indicators turn green (bullish)
RSI(7) is above 50
This is the first bar where all conditions align (no repainting)
SHORT Entry (SELL Signal)
A SHORT position is opened when ALL of the following conditions are met simultaneously:
All three SuperTrend indicators turn red (bearish)
RSI(7) is below 50
This is the first bar where all conditions align (no repainting)
🚪 Exit Logic
Positions are automatically closed when ANY of these conditions occur:
SuperTrend Color Change: Any one of the three SuperTrend indicators changes direction
Fibonacci BB Touch: Price reaches or exceeds the upper or lower Fibonacci Bollinger Band (2.618 standard deviations)
This dual-exit approach protects profits by:
Exiting quickly when trend momentum shifts (SuperTrend change)
Taking profits at statistical price extremes (Fib BB touch)
🎨 Visual Features
Signal Arrows
Green Up Arrow (BUY): Appears below the bar when long entry conditions are met
Red Down Arrow (SELL): Appears above the bar when short entry conditions are met
Yellow Down Arrow (EXIT): Appears above the bar when exit conditions are met
Background Coloring
Light Green Tint: All three SuperTrends are bullish (uptrend environment)
Light Red Tint: All three SuperTrends are bearish (downtrend environment)
SuperTrend Lines
Three colored lines plotted with varying opacity:
Solid line (ST1): Most responsive to price changes
Semi-transparent (ST2): Medium-term trend
Most transparent (ST3): Long-term trend structure
Dashboard
Real-time information panel showing:
Individual SuperTrend status (UP/DOWN)
Current RSI value and color-coded status
Current position (LONG/SHORT/FLAT)
Net Profit/Loss
⚙️ Customizable Parameters
SuperTrend Settings
ATR periods for each SuperTrend (default: 10, 11, 12)
Multipliers for each SuperTrend (default: 1.0, 2.0, 3.0)
RSI Settings
RSI length (default: 7)
RSI source (default: close)
Fibonacci Bollinger Bands
BB length (default: 200)
BB multiplier (default: 2.618)
Strategy Options
Enable/disable long trades
Enable/disable short trades
Initial capital
Position sizing
Commission settings
💡 Strategy Philosophy
This strategy is built on the principle of confluence trading - waiting for multiple independent indicators to align before taking a position. By requiring three SuperTrend indicators AND RSI confirmation, the strategy filters out the majority of low-probability setups.
The multi-timeframe SuperTrend approach ensures that short-term, medium-term, and longer-term trends are all in agreement, which typically occurs during strong, sustainable price moves.
The exit strategy is equally important, using both trend-following logic (SuperTrend changes) and mean-reversion logic (Fibonacci BB touches) to adapt to different market conditions.
📊 Best Use Cases
Trending Markets: Works best in markets with clear directional bias
Higher Timeframes: Designed for 15-minute to daily charts
Volatile Assets: SuperTrend indicators excel in assets with clear trends
Swing Trading: Hold times typically range from hours to days
⚠️ Important Notes
No Repainting: All signals are confirmed and will not change on historical bars
One Signal Per Setup: The strategy prevents duplicate signals on consecutive bars
Exit Protection: Always exits before potentially taking an opposite position
Visual Clarity: All three SuperTrend lines are visible simultaneously for transparency
🎯 Recommended Settings
While default parameters are optimized for general use, consider:
Crypto/Volatile Markets: May benefit from slightly higher multipliers
Forex: Default settings work well for major pairs
Stocks: Consider longer BB periods (250-300) for daily charts
Lower Timeframes: Reduce all periods proportionally for scalping
📝 Alerts
Built-in alert conditions for:
BUY signal triggered
SELL signal triggered
EXIT signal triggered
Set up notifications to never miss a trade opportunity!
Disclaimer: This strategy is for educational and informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always backtest thoroughly and practice proper risk management before live trading.
Session First 5-Min High/LowHere's a professional description for your indicator:
Session First 5-Min High/Low Marker
This indicator automatically identifies and marks the high and low price levels established during the first 5 minutes of major trading sessions, helping traders identify key intraday support and resistance zones.
Key Features:
Tracks three major trading sessions in IST (Indian Standard Time):
Asian Session: 5:30 AM - 5:35 AM
London Session: 12:30 PM - 12:35 PM
New York Session: 5:30 PM - 5:35 PM
Draws horizontal lines at the highest and lowest prices reached during each session's opening 5-minute window
Color-coded for easy identification (Yellow for Asian, Blue for London, Red for New York)
Lines extend across the chart to help track price reactions throughout the day
Clean, minimal design with optional labels
Best Used For:
Identifying key intraday support and resistance levels
Session breakout trading strategies
Understanding institutional order flow at market opens
Works on 1-minute timeframe for precise tracking
Customizable Settings:
Toggle line extensions on/off
Adjust line width (1-5)
Change colors for each session
Show/hide session labels
Perfect for day traders and scalpers who trade around major session openings and want to identify high-probability support/resistance zones established during peak liquidity periods.
This description explains what the indicator does, its practical applications, and its key features in a way that's clear for TradingView users.RetryClaude can make mistakes. Please double-check responses.
Dynamic Equity Allocation Model"Cash is Trash"? Not Always. Here's Why Science Beats Guesswork.
Every retail trader knows the frustration: you draw support and resistance lines, you spot patterns, you follow market gurus on social media—and still, when the next bear market hits, your portfolio bleeds red. Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to navigate market turbulence with ease, preserving capital when markets crash and participating when they rally. What's their secret?
The answer isn't insider information or access to exotic derivatives. It's systematic, scientifically validated decision-making. While most retail traders rely on subjective chart analysis and emotional reactions, professional portfolio managers use quantitative models that remove emotion from the equation and process multiple streams of market information simultaneously.
This document presents exactly such a system—not a proprietary black box available only to hedge funds, but a fully transparent, academically grounded framework that any serious investor can understand and apply. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) synthesizes decades of financial research from Nobel laureates and leading academics into a practical tool for tactical asset allocation.
Stop drawing colorful lines on your chart and start thinking like a quant. This isn't about predicting where the market goes next week—it's about systematically adjusting your risk exposure based on what the data actually tells you. When valuations scream danger, when volatility spikes, when credit markets freeze, when multiple warning signals align—that's when cash isn't trash. That's when cash saves your portfolio.
The irony of "cash is trash" rhetoric is that it ignores timing. Yes, being 100% cash for decades would be disastrous. But being 100% equities through every crisis is equally foolish. The sophisticated approach is dynamic: aggressive when conditions favor risk-taking, defensive when they don't. This model shows you how to make that decision systematically, not emotionally.
Whether you're managing your own retirement portfolio or seeking to understand how institutional allocation strategies work, this comprehensive analysis provides the theoretical foundation, mathematical implementation, and practical guidance to elevate your investment approach from amateur to professional.
The choice is yours: keep hoping your chart patterns work out, or start using the same quantitative methods that professionals rely on. The tools are here. The research is cited. The methodology is explained. All you need to do is read, understand, and apply.
The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model (DEAM) is a quantitative framework for systematic allocation between equities and cash, grounded in modern portfolio theory and empirical market research. The model integrates five scientifically validated dimensions of market analysis—market regime, risk metrics, valuation, sentiment, and macroeconomic conditions—to generate dynamic allocation recommendations ranging from 0% to 100% equity exposure. This work documents the theoretical foundations, mathematical implementation, and practical application of this multi-factor approach.
1. Introduction and Theoretical Background
1.1 The Limitations of Static Portfolio Allocation
Traditional portfolio theory, as formulated by Markowitz (1952) in his seminal work "Portfolio Selection," assumes an optimal static allocation where investors distribute their wealth across asset classes according to their risk aversion. This approach rests on the assumption that returns and risks remain constant over time. However, empirical research demonstrates that this assumption does not hold in reality. Fama and French (1989) showed that expected returns vary over time and correlate with macroeconomic variables such as the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. Campbell and Shiller (1988) demonstrated that the price-earnings ratio possesses predictive power for future stock returns, providing a foundation for dynamic allocation strategies.
The academic literature on tactical asset allocation has evolved considerably over recent decades. Ilmanen (2011) argues in "Expected Returns" that investors can improve their risk-adjusted returns by considering valuation levels, business cycles, and market sentiment. The Dynamic Equity Allocation Model presented here builds on this research tradition and operationalizes these insights into a practically applicable allocation framework.
1.2 Multi-Factor Approaches in Asset Allocation
Modern financial research has shown that different factors capture distinct aspects of market dynamics and together provide a more robust picture of market conditions than individual indicators. Ross (1976) developed the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, a model that employs multiple factors to explain security returns. Following this multi-factor philosophy, DEAM integrates five complementary analytical dimensions, each tapping different information sources and collectively enabling comprehensive market understanding.
2. Data Foundation and Data Quality
2.1 Data Sources Used
The model draws its data exclusively from publicly available market data via the TradingView platform. This transparency and accessibility is a significant advantage over proprietary models that rely on non-public data. The data foundation encompasses several categories of market information, each capturing specific aspects of market dynamics.
First, price data for the S&P 500 Index is obtained through the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (ticker: SPY). The use of a highly liquid ETF instead of the index itself has practical reasons, as ETF data is available in real-time and reflects actual tradability. In addition to closing prices, high, low, and volume data are captured, which are required for calculating advanced volatility measures.
Fundamental corporate metrics are retrieved via TradingView's Financial Data API. These include earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratio, return on equity, debt-to-equity ratio, dividend yield, and share buyback yield. Cochrane (2011) emphasizes in "Presidential Address: Discount Rates" the central importance of valuation metrics for forecasting future returns, making these fundamental data a cornerstone of the model.
Volatility indicators are represented by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and related metrics. The VIX, often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," measures the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options and serves as a proxy for market participants' risk perception. Whaley (2000) describes in "The Investor Fear Gauge" the construction and interpretation of the VIX and its use as a sentiment indicator.
Macroeconomic data includes yield curve information through US Treasury bonds of various maturities and credit risk premiums through the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free government bonds. These variables capture the macroeconomic conditions and financing conditions relevant for equity valuation. Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) showed that the shape of the yield curve has predictive power for future economic activity, justifying the inclusion of these data.
2.2 Handling Missing Data
A practical problem when working with financial data is dealing with missing or unavailable values. The model implements a fallback system where a plausible historical average value is stored for each fundamental metric. When current data is unavailable for a specific point in time, this fallback value is used. This approach ensures that the model remains functional even during temporary data outages and avoids systematic biases from missing data. The use of average values as fallback is conservative, as it generates neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic signals.
3. Component 1: Market Regime Detection
3.1 The Concept of Market Regimes
The idea that financial markets exist in different "regimes" or states that differ in their statistical properties has a long tradition in financial science. Hamilton (1989) developed regime-switching models that allow distinguishing between different market states with different return and volatility characteristics. The practical application of this theory consists of identifying the current market state and adjusting portfolio allocation accordingly.
DEAM classifies market regimes using a scoring system that considers three main dimensions: trend strength, volatility level, and drawdown depth. This multidimensional view is more robust than focusing on individual indicators, as it captures various facets of market dynamics. Classification occurs into six distinct regimes: Strong Bull, Bull Market, Neutral, Correction, Bear Market, and Crisis.
3.2 Trend Analysis Through Moving Averages
Moving averages are among the oldest and most widely used technical indicators and have also received attention in academic literature. Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) examined in "Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns" the profitability of trading rules based on moving averages and found evidence for their predictive power, although later studies questioned the robustness of these results when considering transaction costs.
The model calculates three moving averages with different time windows: a 20-day average (approximately one trading month), a 50-day average (approximately one quarter), and a 200-day average (approximately one trading year). The relationship of the current price to these averages and the relationship of the averages to each other provide information about trend strength and direction. When the price trades above all three averages and the short-term average is above the long-term, this indicates an established uptrend. The model assigns points based on these constellations, with longer-term trends weighted more heavily as they are considered more persistent.
3.3 Volatility Regimes
Volatility, understood as the standard deviation of returns, is a central concept of financial theory and serves as the primary risk measure. However, research has shown that volatility is not constant but changes over time and occurs in clusters—a phenomenon first documented by Mandelbrot (1963) and later formalized through ARCH and GARCH models (Engle, 1982; Bollerslev, 1986).
DEAM calculates volatility not only through the classic method of return standard deviation but also uses more advanced estimators such as the Parkinson estimator and the Garman-Klass estimator. These methods utilize intraday information (high and low prices) and are more efficient than simple close-to-close volatility estimators. The Parkinson estimator (Parkinson, 1980) uses the range between high and low of a trading day and is based on the recognition that this information reveals more about true volatility than just the closing price difference. The Garman-Klass estimator (Garman and Klass, 1980) extends this approach by additionally considering opening and closing prices.
The calculated volatility is annualized by multiplying it by the square root of 252 (the average number of trading days per year), enabling standardized comparability. The model compares current volatility with the VIX, the implied volatility from option prices. A low VIX (below 15) signals market comfort and increases the regime score, while a high VIX (above 35) indicates market stress and reduces the score. This interpretation follows the empirical observation that elevated volatility is typically associated with falling markets (Schwert, 1989).
3.4 Drawdown Analysis
A drawdown refers to the percentage decline from the highest point (peak) to the lowest point (trough) during a specific period. This metric is psychologically significant for investors as it represents the maximum loss experienced. Calmar (1991) developed the Calmar Ratio, which relates return to maximum drawdown, underscoring the practical relevance of this metric.
The model calculates current drawdown as the percentage distance from the highest price of the last 252 trading days (one year). A drawdown below 3% is considered negligible and maximally increases the regime score. As drawdown increases, the score decreases progressively, with drawdowns above 20% classified as severe and indicating a crisis or bear market regime. These thresholds are empirically motivated by historical market cycles, in which corrections typically encompassed 5-10% drawdowns, bear markets 20-30%, and crises over 30%.
3.5 Regime Classification
Final regime classification occurs through aggregation of scores from trend (40% weight), volatility (30%), and drawdown (30%). The higher weighting of trend reflects the empirical observation that trend-following strategies have historically delivered robust results (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). A total score above 80 signals a strong bull market with established uptrend, low volatility, and minimal losses. At a score below 10, a crisis situation exists requiring defensive positioning. The six regime categories enable a differentiated allocation strategy that not only distinguishes binarily between bullish and bearish but allows gradual gradations.
4. Component 2: Risk-Based Allocation
4.1 Volatility Targeting as Risk Management Approach
The concept of volatility targeting is based on the idea that investors should maximize not returns but risk-adjusted returns. Sharpe (1966, 1994) defined with the Sharpe Ratio the fundamental concept of return per unit of risk, measured as volatility. Volatility targeting goes a step further and adjusts portfolio allocation to achieve constant target volatility. This means that in times of low market volatility, equity allocation is increased, and in times of high volatility, it is reduced.
Moreira and Muir (2017) showed in "Volatility-Managed Portfolios" that strategies that adjust their exposure based on volatility forecasts achieve higher Sharpe Ratios than passive buy-and-hold strategies. DEAM implements this principle by defining a target portfolio volatility (default 12% annualized) and adjusting equity allocation to achieve it. The mathematical foundation is simple: if market volatility is 20% and target volatility is 12%, equity allocation should be 60% (12/20 = 0.6), with the remaining 40% held in cash with zero volatility.
4.2 Market Volatility Calculation
Estimating current market volatility is central to the risk-based allocation approach. The model uses several volatility estimators in parallel and selects the higher value between traditional close-to-close volatility and the Parkinson estimator. This conservative choice ensures the model does not underestimate true volatility, which could lead to excessive risk exposure.
Traditional volatility calculation uses logarithmic returns, as these have mathematically advantageous properties (additive linkage over multiple periods). The logarithmic return is calculated as ln(P_t / P_{t-1}), where P_t is the price at time t. The standard deviation of these returns over a rolling 20-trading-day window is then multiplied by √252 to obtain annualized volatility. This annualization is based on the assumption of independently identically distributed returns, which is an idealization but widely accepted in practice.
The Parkinson estimator uses additional information from the trading range (High minus Low) of each day. The formula is: σ_P = (1/√(4ln2)) × √(1/n × Σln²(H_i/L_i)) × √252, where H_i and L_i are high and low prices. Under ideal conditions, this estimator is approximately five times more efficient than the close-to-close estimator (Parkinson, 1980), as it uses more information per observation.
4.3 Drawdown-Based Position Size Adjustment
In addition to volatility targeting, the model implements drawdown-based risk control. The logic is that deep market declines often signal further losses and therefore justify exposure reduction. This behavior corresponds with the concept of path-dependent risk tolerance: investors who have already suffered losses are typically less willing to take additional risk (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
The model defines a maximum portfolio drawdown as a target parameter (default 15%). Since portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown are proportional to equity allocation (assuming cash has neither volatility nor drawdown), allocation-based control is possible. For example, if the market exhibits a 25% drawdown and target portfolio drawdown is 15%, equity allocation should be at most 60% (15/25).
4.4 Dynamic Risk Adjustment
An advanced feature of DEAM is dynamic adjustment of risk-based allocation through a feedback mechanism. The model continuously estimates what actual portfolio volatility and portfolio drawdown would result at the current allocation. If risk utilization (ratio of actual to target risk) exceeds 1.0, allocation is reduced by an adjustment factor that grows exponentially with overutilization. This implements a form of dynamic feedback that avoids overexposure.
Mathematically, a risk adjustment factor r_adjust is calculated: if risk utilization u > 1, then r_adjust = exp(-0.5 × (u - 1)). This exponential function ensures that moderate overutilization is gently corrected, while strong overutilization triggers drastic reductions. The factor 0.5 in the exponent was empirically calibrated to achieve a balanced ratio between sensitivity and stability.
5. Component 3: Valuation Analysis
5.1 Theoretical Foundations of Fundamental Valuation
DEAM's valuation component is based on the fundamental premise that the intrinsic value of a security is determined by its future cash flows and that deviations between market price and intrinsic value are eventually corrected. Graham and Dodd (1934) established in "Security Analysis" the basic principles of fundamental analysis that remain relevant today. Translated into modern portfolio context, this means that markets with high valuation metrics (high price-earnings ratios) should have lower expected returns than cheaply valued markets.
Campbell and Shiller (1988) developed the Cyclically Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE), which smooths earnings over a full business cycle. Their empirical analysis showed that this ratio has significant predictive power for 10-year returns. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) demonstrated in "Value and Momentum Everywhere" that value effects exist not only in individual stocks but also in asset classes and markets.
5.2 Equity Risk Premium as Central Valuation Metric
The Equity Risk Premium (ERP) is defined as the expected excess return of stocks over risk-free government bonds. It is the theoretical heart of valuation analysis, as it represents the compensation investors demand for bearing equity risk. Damodaran (2012) discusses in "Equity Risk Premiums: Determinants, Estimation and Implications" various methods for ERP estimation.
DEAM calculates ERP not through a single method but combines four complementary approaches with different weights. This multi-method strategy increases estimation robustness and avoids dependence on single, potentially erroneous inputs.
The first method (35% weight) uses earnings yield, calculated as 1/P/E or directly from operating earnings data, and subtracts the 10-year Treasury yield. This method follows Fed Model logic (Yardeni, 2003), although this model has theoretical weaknesses as it does not consistently treat inflation (Asness, 2003).
The second method (30% weight) extends earnings yield by share buyback yield. Share buybacks are a form of capital return to shareholders and increase value per share. Boudoukh et al. (2007) showed in "The Total Shareholder Yield" that the sum of dividend yield and buyback yield is a better predictor of future returns than dividend yield alone.
The third method (20% weight) implements the Gordon Growth Model (Gordon, 1962), which models stock value as the sum of discounted future dividends. Under constant growth g assumption: Expected Return = Dividend Yield + g. The model estimates sustainable growth as g = ROE × (1 - Payout Ratio), where ROE is return on equity and payout ratio is the ratio of dividends to earnings. This formula follows from equity theory: unretained earnings are reinvested at ROE and generate additional earnings growth.
The fourth method (15% weight) combines total shareholder yield (Dividend + Buybacks) with implied growth derived from revenue growth. This method considers that companies with strong revenue growth should generate higher future earnings, even if current valuations do not yet fully reflect this.
The final ERP is the weighted average of these four methods. A high ERP (above 4%) signals attractive valuations and increases the valuation score to 95 out of 100 possible points. A negative ERP, where stocks have lower expected returns than bonds, results in a minimal score of 10.
5.3 Quality Adjustments to Valuation
Valuation metrics alone can be misleading if not interpreted in the context of company quality. A company with a low P/E may be cheap or fundamentally problematic. The model therefore implements quality adjustments based on growth, profitability, and capital structure.
Revenue growth above 10% annually adds 10 points to the valuation score, moderate growth above 5% adds 5 points. This adjustment reflects that growth has independent value (Modigliani and Miller, 1961, extended by later growth theory). Net margin above 15% signals pricing power and operational efficiency and increases the score by 5 points, while low margins below 8% indicate competitive pressure and subtract 5 points.
Return on equity (ROE) above 20% characterizes outstanding capital efficiency and increases the score by 5 points. Piotroski (2000) showed in "Value Investing: The Use of Historical Financial Statement Information" that fundamental quality signals such as high ROE can improve the performance of value strategies.
Capital structure is evaluated through the debt-to-equity ratio. A conservative ratio below 1.0 multiplies the valuation score by 1.2, while high leverage above 2.0 applies a multiplier of 0.8. This adjustment reflects that high debt constrains financial flexibility and can become problematic in crisis times (Korteweg, 2010).
6. Component 4: Sentiment Analysis
6.1 The Role of Sentiment in Financial Markets
Investor sentiment, defined as the collective psychological attitude of market participants, influences asset prices independently of fundamental data. Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) developed a sentiment index and showed that periods of high sentiment are followed by overvaluations that later correct. This insight justifies integrating a sentiment component into allocation decisions.
Sentiment is difficult to measure directly but can be proxied through market indicators. The VIX is the most widely used sentiment indicator, as it aggregates implied volatility from option prices. High VIX values reflect elevated uncertainty and risk aversion, while low values signal market comfort. Whaley (2009) refers to the VIX as the "Investor Fear Gauge" and documents its role as a contrarian indicator: extremely high values typically occur at market bottoms, while low values occur at tops.
6.2 VIX-Based Sentiment Assessment
DEAM uses statistical normalization of the VIX by calculating the Z-score: z = (VIX_current - VIX_average) / VIX_standard_deviation. The Z-score indicates how many standard deviations the current VIX is from the historical average. This approach is more robust than absolute thresholds, as it adapts to the average volatility level, which can vary over longer periods.
A Z-score below -1.5 (VIX is 1.5 standard deviations below average) signals exceptionally low risk perception and adds 40 points to the sentiment score. This may seem counterintuitive—shouldn't low fear be bullish? However, the logic follows the contrarian principle: when no one is afraid, everyone is already invested, and there is limited further upside potential (Zweig, 1973). Conversely, a Z-score above 1.5 (extreme fear) adds -40 points, reflecting market panic but simultaneously suggesting potential buying opportunities.
6.3 VIX Term Structure as Sentiment Signal
The VIX term structure provides additional sentiment information. Normally, the VIX trades in contango, meaning longer-term VIX futures have higher prices than short-term. This reflects that short-term volatility is currently known, while long-term volatility is more uncertain and carries a risk premium. The model compares the VIX with VIX9D (9-day volatility) and identifies backwardation (VIX > 1.05 × VIX9D) and steep backwardation (VIX > 1.15 × VIX9D).
Backwardation occurs when short-term implied volatility is higher than longer-term, which typically happens during market stress. Investors anticipate immediate turbulence but expect calming. Psychologically, this reflects acute fear. The model subtracts 15 points for backwardation and 30 for steep backwardation, as these constellations signal elevated risk. Simon and Wiggins (2001) analyzed the VIX futures curve and showed that backwardation is associated with market declines.
6.4 Safe-Haven Flows
During crisis times, investors flee from risky assets into safe havens: gold, US dollar, and Japanese yen. This "flight to quality" is a sentiment signal. The model calculates the performance of these assets relative to stocks over the last 20 trading days. When gold or the dollar strongly rise while stocks fall, this indicates elevated risk aversion.
The safe-haven component is calculated as the difference between safe-haven performance and stock performance. Positive values (safe havens outperform) subtract up to 20 points from the sentiment score, negative values (stocks outperform) add up to 10 points. The asymmetric treatment (larger deduction for risk-off than bonus for risk-on) reflects that risk-off movements are typically sharper and more informative than risk-on phases.
Baur and Lucey (2010) examined safe-haven properties of gold and showed that gold indeed exhibits negative correlation with stocks during extreme market movements, confirming its role as crisis protection.
7. Component 5: Macroeconomic Analysis
7.1 The Yield Curve as Economic Indicator
The yield curve, represented as yields of government bonds of various maturities, contains aggregated expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The slope of the yield curve has remarkable predictive power for recessions. Estrella and Mishkin (1998) showed that an inverted yield curve (short-term rates higher than long-term) predicts recessions with high reliability. This is because inverted curves reflect restrictive monetary policy: the central bank raises short-term rates to combat inflation, dampening economic activity.
DEAM calculates two spread measures: the 2-year-minus-10-year spread and the 3-month-minus-10-year spread. A steep, positive curve (spreads above 1.5% and 2% respectively) signals healthy growth expectations and generates the maximum yield curve score of 40 points. A flat curve (spreads near zero) reduces the score to 20 points. An inverted curve (negative spreads) is particularly alarming and results in only 10 points.
The choice of two different spreads increases analysis robustness. The 2-10 spread is most established in academic literature, while the 3M-10Y spread is often considered more sensitive, as the 3-month rate directly reflects current monetary policy (Ang, Piazzesi, and Wei, 2006).
7.2 Credit Conditions and Spreads
Credit spreads—the yield difference between risky corporate bonds and safe government bonds—reflect risk perception in the credit market. Gilchrist and Zakrajšek (2012) constructed an "Excess Bond Premium" that measures the component of credit spreads not explained by fundamentals and showed this is a predictor of future economic activity and stock returns.
The model approximates credit spread by comparing the yield of high-yield bond ETFs (HYG) with investment-grade bond ETFs (LQD). A narrow spread below 200 basis points signals healthy credit conditions and risk appetite, contributing 30 points to the macro score. Very wide spreads above 1000 basis points (as during the 2008 financial crisis) signal credit crunch and generate zero points.
Additionally, the model evaluates whether "flight to quality" is occurring, identified through strong performance of Treasury bonds (TLT) with simultaneous weakness in high-yield bonds. This constellation indicates elevated risk aversion and reduces the credit conditions score.
7.3 Financial Stability at Corporate Level
While the yield curve and credit spreads reflect macroeconomic conditions, financial stability evaluates the health of companies themselves. The model uses the aggregated debt-to-equity ratio and return on equity of the S&P 500 as proxies for corporate health.
A low leverage level below 0.5 combined with high ROE above 15% signals robust corporate balance sheets and generates 20 points. This combination is particularly valuable as it represents both defensive strength (low debt means crisis resistance) and offensive strength (high ROE means earnings power). High leverage above 1.5 generates only 5 points, as it implies vulnerability to interest rate increases and recessions.
Korteweg (2010) showed in "The Net Benefits to Leverage" that optimal debt maximizes firm value, but excessive debt increases distress costs. At the aggregated market level, high debt indicates fragilities that can become problematic during stress phases.
8. Component 6: Crisis Detection
8.1 The Need for Systematic Crisis Detection
Financial crises are rare but extremely impactful events that suspend normal statistical relationships. During normal market volatility, diversified portfolios and traditional risk management approaches function, but during systemic crises, seemingly independent assets suddenly correlate strongly, and losses exceed historical expectations (Longin and Solnik, 2001). This justifies a separate crisis detection mechanism that operates independently of regular allocation components.
Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) documented in "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly" recurring patterns in financial crises: extreme volatility, massive drawdowns, credit market dysfunction, and asset price collapse. DEAM operationalizes these patterns into quantifiable crisis indicators.
8.2 Multi-Signal Crisis Identification
The model uses a counter-based approach where various stress signals are identified and aggregated. This methodology is more robust than relying on a single indicator, as true crises typically occur simultaneously across multiple dimensions. A single signal may be a false alarm, but the simultaneous presence of multiple signals increases confidence.
The first indicator is a VIX above the crisis threshold (default 40), adding one point. A VIX above 60 (as in 2008 and March 2020) adds two additional points, as such extreme values are historically very rare. This tiered approach captures the intensity of volatility.
The second indicator is market drawdown. A drawdown above 15% adds one point, as corrections of this magnitude can be potential harbingers of larger crises. A drawdown above 25% adds another point, as historical bear markets typically encompass 25-40% drawdowns.
The third indicator is credit market spreads above 500 basis points, adding one point. Such wide spreads occur only during significant credit market disruptions, as in 2008 during the Lehman crisis.
The fourth indicator identifies simultaneous losses in stocks and bonds. Normally, Treasury bonds act as a hedge against equity risk (negative correlation), but when both fall simultaneously, this indicates systemic liquidity problems or inflation/stagflation fears. The model checks whether both SPY and TLT have fallen more than 10% and 5% respectively over 5 trading days, adding two points.
The fifth indicator is a volume spike combined with negative returns. Extreme trading volumes (above twice the 20-day average) with falling prices signal panic selling. This adds one point.
A crisis situation is diagnosed when at least 3 indicators trigger, a severe crisis at 5 or more indicators. These thresholds were calibrated through historical backtesting to identify true crises (2008, 2020) without generating excessive false alarms.
8.3 Crisis-Based Allocation Override
When a crisis is detected, the system overrides the normal allocation recommendation and caps equity allocation at maximum 25%. In a severe crisis, the cap is set at 10%. This drastic defensive posture follows the empirical observation that crises typically require time to develop and that early reduction can avoid substantial losses (Faber, 2007).
This override logic implements a "safety first" principle: in situations of existential danger to the portfolio, capital preservation becomes the top priority. Roy (1952) formalized this approach in "Safety First and the Holding of Assets," arguing that investors should primarily minimize ruin probability.
9. Integration and Final Allocation Calculation
9.1 Component Weighting
The final allocation recommendation emerges through weighted aggregation of the five components. The standard weighting is: Market Regime 35%, Risk Management 25%, Valuation 20%, Sentiment 15%, Macro 5%. These weights reflect both theoretical considerations and empirical backtesting results.
The highest weighting of market regime is based on evidence that trend-following and momentum strategies have delivered robust results across various asset classes and time periods (Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen, 2012). Current market momentum is highly informative for the near future, although it provides no information about long-term expectations.
The substantial weighting of risk management (25%) follows from the central importance of risk control. Wealth preservation is the foundation of long-term wealth creation, and systematic risk management is demonstrably value-creating (Moreira and Muir, 2017).
The valuation component receives 20% weight, based on the long-term mean reversion of valuation metrics. While valuation has limited short-term predictive power (bull and bear markets can begin at any valuation), the long-term relationship between valuation and returns is robustly documented (Campbell and Shiller, 1988).
Sentiment (15%) and Macro (5%) receive lower weights, as these factors are subtler and harder to measure. Sentiment is valuable as a contrarian indicator at extremes but less informative in normal ranges. Macro variables such as the yield curve have strong predictive power for recessions, but the transmission from recessions to stock market performance is complex and temporally variable.
9.2 Model Type Adjustments
DEAM allows users to choose between four model types: Conservative, Balanced, Aggressive, and Adaptive. This choice modifies the final allocation through additive adjustments.
Conservative mode subtracts 10 percentage points from allocation, resulting in consistently more cautious positioning. This is suitable for risk-averse investors or those with limited investment horizons. Aggressive mode adds 10 percentage points, suitable for risk-tolerant investors with long horizons.
Adaptive mode implements procyclical adjustment based on short-term momentum: if the market has risen more than 5% in the last 20 days, 5 percentage points are added; if it has declined more than 5%, 5 points are subtracted. This logic follows the observation that short-term momentum persists (Jegadeesh and Titman, 1993), but the moderate size of adjustment avoids excessive timing bets.
Balanced mode makes no adjustment and uses raw model output. This neutral setting is suitable for investors who wish to trust model recommendations unchanged.
9.3 Smoothing and Stability
The allocation resulting from aggregation undergoes final smoothing through a simple moving average over 3 periods. This smoothing is crucial for model practicality, as it reduces frequent trading and thus transaction costs. Without smoothing, the model could fluctuate between adjacent allocations with every small input change.
The choice of 3 periods as smoothing window is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Longer smoothing would excessively delay signals and impede response to true regime changes. Shorter or no smoothing would allow too much noise. Empirical tests showed that 3-period smoothing offers an optimal ratio between these goals.
10. Visualization and Interpretation
10.1 Main Output: Equity Allocation
DEAM's primary output is a time series from 0 to 100 representing the recommended percentage allocation to equities. This representation is intuitive: 100% means full investment in stocks (specifically: an S&P 500 ETF), 0% means complete cash position, and intermediate values correspond to mixed portfolios. A value of 60% means, for example: invest 60% of wealth in SPY, hold 40% in money market instruments or cash.
The time series is color-coded to enable quick visual interpretation. Green shades represent high allocations (above 80%, bullish), red shades low allocations (below 20%, bearish), and neutral colors middle allocations. The chart background is dynamically colored based on the signal, enhancing readability in different market phases.
10.2 Dashboard Metrics
A tabular dashboard presents key metrics compactly. This includes current allocation, cash allocation (complement), an aggregated signal (BULLISH/NEUTRAL/BEARISH), current market regime, VIX level, market drawdown, and crisis status.
Additionally, fundamental metrics are displayed: P/E Ratio, Equity Risk Premium, Return on Equity, Debt-to-Equity Ratio, and Total Shareholder Yield. This transparency allows users to understand model decisions and form their own assessments.
Component scores (Regime, Risk, Valuation, Sentiment, Macro) are also displayed, each normalized on a 0-100 scale. This shows which factors primarily drive the current recommendation. If, for example, the Risk score is very low (20) while other scores are moderate (50-60), this indicates that risk management considerations are pulling allocation down.
10.3 Component Breakdown (Optional)
Advanced users can display individual components as separate lines in the chart. This enables analysis of component dynamics: do all components move synchronously, or are there divergences? Divergences can be particularly informative. If, for example, the market regime is bullish (high score) but the valuation component is very negative, this signals an overbought market not fundamentally supported—a classic "bubble warning."
This feature is disabled by default to keep the chart clean but can be activated for deeper analysis.
10.4 Confidence Bands
The model optionally displays uncertainty bands around the main allocation line. These are calculated as ±1 standard deviation of allocation over a rolling 20-period window. Wide bands indicate high volatility of model recommendations, suggesting uncertain market conditions. Narrow bands indicate stable recommendations.
This visualization implements a concept of epistemic uncertainty—uncertainty about the model estimate itself, not just market volatility. In phases where various indicators send conflicting signals, the allocation recommendation becomes more volatile, manifesting in wider bands. Users can understand this as a warning to act more cautiously or consult alternative information sources.
11. Alert System
11.1 Allocation Alerts
DEAM implements an alert system that notifies users of significant events. Allocation alerts trigger when smoothed allocation crosses certain thresholds. An alert is generated when allocation reaches 80% (from below), signaling strong bullish conditions. Another alert triggers when allocation falls to 20%, indicating defensive positioning.
These thresholds are not arbitrary but correspond with boundaries between model regimes. An allocation of 80% roughly corresponds to a clear bull market regime, while 20% corresponds to a bear market regime. Alerts at these points are therefore informative about fundamental regime shifts.
11.2 Crisis Alerts
Separate alerts trigger upon detection of crisis and severe crisis. These alerts have highest priority as they signal large risks. A crisis alert should prompt investors to review their portfolio and potentially take defensive measures beyond the automatic model recommendation (e.g., hedging through put options, rebalancing to more defensive sectors).
11.3 Regime Change Alerts
An alert triggers upon change of market regime (e.g., from Neutral to Correction, or from Bull Market to Strong Bull). Regime changes are highly informative events that typically entail substantial allocation changes. These alerts enable investors to proactively respond to changes in market dynamics.
11.4 Risk Breach Alerts
A specialized alert triggers when actual portfolio risk utilization exceeds target parameters by 20%. This is a warning signal that the risk management system is reaching its limits, possibly because market volatility is rising faster than allocation can be reduced. In such situations, investors should consider manual interventions.
12. Practical Application and Limitations
12.1 Portfolio Implementation
DEAM generates a recommendation for allocation between equities (S&P 500) and cash. Implementation by an investor can take various forms. The most direct method is using an S&P 500 ETF (e.g., SPY, VOO) for equity allocation and a money market fund or savings account for cash allocation.
A rebalancing strategy is required to synchronize actual allocation with model recommendation. Two approaches are possible: (1) rule-based rebalancing at every 10% deviation between actual and target, or (2) time-based monthly rebalancing. Both have trade-offs between responsiveness and transaction costs. Empirical evidence (Jaconetti, Kinniry, and Zilbering, 2010) suggests rebalancing frequency has moderate impact on performance, and investors should optimize based on their transaction costs.
12.2 Adaptation to Individual Preferences
The model offers numerous adjustment parameters. Component weights can be modified if investors place more or less belief in certain factors. A fundamentally-oriented investor might increase valuation weight, while a technical trader might increase regime weight.
Risk target parameters (target volatility, max drawdown) should be adapted to individual risk tolerance. Younger investors with long investment horizons can choose higher target volatility (15-18%), while retirees may prefer lower volatility (8-10%). This adjustment systematically shifts average equity allocation.
Crisis thresholds can be adjusted based on preference for sensitivity versus specificity of crisis detection. Lower thresholds (e.g., VIX > 35 instead of 40) increase sensitivity (more crises are detected) but reduce specificity (more false alarms). Higher thresholds have the reverse effect.
12.3 Limitations and Disclaimers
DEAM is based on historical relationships between indicators and market performance. There is no guarantee these relationships will persist in the future. Structural changes in markets (e.g., through regulation, technology, or central bank policy) can break established patterns. This is the fundamental problem of induction in financial science (Taleb, 2007).
The model is optimized for US equities (S&P 500). Application to other markets (international stocks, bonds, commodities) would require recalibration. The indicators and thresholds are specific to the statistical properties of the US equity market.
The model cannot eliminate losses. Even with perfect crisis prediction, an investor following the model would lose money in bear markets—just less than a buy-and-hold investor. The goal is risk-adjusted performance improvement, not risk elimination.
Transaction costs are not modeled. In practice, spreads, commissions, and taxes reduce net returns. Frequent trading can cause substantial costs. Model smoothing helps minimize this, but users should consider their specific cost situation.
The model reacts to information; it does not anticipate it. During sudden shocks (e.g., 9/11, COVID-19 lockdowns), the model can only react after price movements, not before. This limitation is inherent to all reactive systems.
12.4 Relationship to Other Strategies
DEAM is a tactical asset allocation approach and should be viewed as a complement, not replacement, for strategic asset allocation. Brinson, Hood, and Beebower (1986) showed in their influential study "Determinants of Portfolio Performance" that strategic asset allocation (long-term policy allocation) explains the majority of portfolio performance, but this leaves room for tactical adjustments based on market timing.
The model can be combined with value and momentum strategies at the individual stock level. While DEAM controls overall market exposure, within-equity decisions can be optimized through stock-picking models. This separation between strategic (market exposure) and tactical (stock selection) levels follows classical portfolio theory.
The model does not replace diversification across asset classes. A complete portfolio should also include bonds, international stocks, real estate, and alternative investments. DEAM addresses only the US equity allocation decision within a broader portfolio.
13. Scientific Foundation and Evaluation
13.1 Theoretical Consistency
DEAM's components are based on established financial theory and empirical evidence. The market regime component follows from regime-switching models (Hamilton, 1989) and trend-following literature. The risk management component implements volatility targeting (Moreira and Muir, 2017) and modern portfolio theory (Markowitz, 1952). The valuation component is based on discounted cash flow theory and empirical value research (Campbell and Shiller, 1988; Fama and French, 1992). The sentiment component integrates behavioral finance (Baker and Wurgler, 2006). The macro component uses established business cycle indicators (Estrella and Mishkin, 1998).
This theoretical grounding distinguishes DEAM from purely data-mining-based approaches that identify patterns without causal theory. Theory-guided models have greater probability of functioning out-of-sample, as they are based on fundamental mechanisms, not random correlations (Lo and MacKinlay, 1990).
13.2 Empirical Validation
While this document does not present detailed backtest analysis, it should be noted that rigorous validation of a tactical asset allocation model should include several elements:
In-sample testing establishes whether the model functions at all in the data on which it was calibrated. Out-of-sample testing is crucial: the model should be tested in time periods not used for development. Walk-forward analysis, where the model is successively trained on rolling windows and tested in the next window, approximates real implementation.
Performance metrics should be risk-adjusted. Pure return consideration is misleading, as higher returns often only compensate for higher risk. Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Calmar Ratio, and Maximum Drawdown are relevant metrics. Comparison with benchmarks (Buy-and-Hold S&P 500, 60/40 Stock/Bond portfolio) contextualizes performance.
Robustness checks test sensitivity to parameter variation. If the model only functions at specific parameter settings, this indicates overfitting. Robust models show consistent performance over a range of plausible parameters.
13.3 Comparison with Existing Literature
DEAM fits into the broader literature on tactical asset allocation. Faber (2007) presented a simple momentum-based timing system that goes long when the market is above its 10-month average, otherwise cash. This simple system avoided large drawdowns in bear markets. DEAM can be understood as a sophistication of this approach that integrates multiple information sources.
Ilmanen (2011) discusses various timing factors in "Expected Returns" and argues for multi-factor approaches. DEAM operationalizes this philosophy. Asness, Moskowitz, and Pedersen (2013) showed that value and momentum effects work across asset classes, justifying cross-asset application of regime and valuation signals.
Ang (2014) emphasizes in "Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing" the importance of systematic, rule-based approaches over discretionary decisions. DEAM is fully systematic and eliminates emotional biases that plague individual investors (overconfidence, hindsight bias, loss aversion).
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Trend Candle CounterComplete Tutorial: Trend Candle Counter Pine ScriptTable of Contents
Installation Guide
Understanding the Indicator
How It Works
Customization Options
Trading Strategies
Setting Up Alerts
Troubleshooting
1. Installation Guide {#installation}Step-by-Step Installation:Step 1: Open TradingView
Go to www.tradingview.com
Log in to your account
Step 2: Access Pine Editor
Click on "Pine Editor" tab at the bottom of the chart
Or press Alt + E (Windows) or Option + E (Mac)
Step 3: Create New Indicator
Click "Open" → "New blank indicator"
Delete any default code
Step 4: Paste the Script
Copy the entire Trend Candle Counter script
Paste it into the editor
Step 5: Save and Apply
Click "Save" (or Ctrl + S)
Give it a name: "Trend Candle Counter"
Click "Add to Chart"
✅ Done! The indicator should now appear on your chart.2. Understanding the Indicator {#understanding}What Does It Do?This indicator numbers each candle based on the current trend: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}Trend TypeNumberingVisualUptrend+1, +2, +3, +4...🟢 Green labelsDowntrend-1, -2, -3, -4...🔴 Red labelsTrend ChangeResets to ±1Label color switchesVisual Components:
Candle Labels - Numbers above each candle
Trend Line (EMA) - Green (up) / Red (down)
Background Shading - Light green/red tint
Info Table - Top-right corner showing:
Current trend direction
Current candle number
Current price
3. How It Works {#how-it-works}Trend Detection Logic:IF Close > EMA → UPTREND (positive counting)
IF Close < EMA → DOWNTREND (negative counting)
Counting Mechanism:Example Uptrend:Candle 1: Close > EMA → Label: +1
Candle 2: Close > EMA → Label: +2
Candle 3: Close > EMA → Label: +3
Candle 4: Close < EMA → Label: -1 (trend changed!)
Example Downtrend:Candle 1: Close < EMA → Label: -1
Candle 2: Close < EMA → Label: -2
Candle 3: Close < EMA → Label: -3
Candle 4: Close > EMA → Label: +1 (trend changed!)
Key Insight:The higher the absolute number, the longer the trend has been running!4. Customization Options {#customization}Accessing Settings:
Click the gear icon ⚙️ next to the indicator name
Go to "Inputs" tab
Available Parameters: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}ParameterDefaultDescriptionRecommendationTrend Detection Length14EMA period for trend5-10: Scalping14-20: Day trading50-200: Swing tradingShow Candle Numbers✅ YesDisplay labelsDisable for cleaner chartLabel SizeSmallSize of numbersTiny: Multi-timeframeLarge: Focus on one chartUptrend ColorGreenPositive number colorCustomize to preferenceDowntrend ColorRedNegative number colorCustomize to preferenceOptimization by Trading Style:For Scalpers (1m - 5m charts):Trend Detection Length: 5-10
Label Size: Tiny
Show Labels: Optional (can be cluttered)
For Day Traders (15m - 1h charts):Trend Detection Length: 14-20
Label Size: Small
Show Labels: Yes
For Swing Traders (4h - Daily charts):Trend Detection Length: 50-100
Label Size: Normal
Show Labels: Yes
5. Trading Strategies {#strategies}Strategy 1: Trend Reversal TradingEntry Signals:
Buy: When counter changes from negative to +1
Sell: When counter changes from positive to -1
Confirmation:
Wait for +2 or -2 to confirm trend strength
Use additional indicators (RSI, MACD) for validation
Example:Candle: -5, -6, -7, -8, +1, +2 ← BUY HERE
Stop Loss: Below the -8 candle low
Target: When counter reaches +8 to +10
Strategy 2: Trend Continuation TradingEntry Signals:
Buy: Enter on pullbacks during uptrend (e.g., at +3, +5, +7)
Sell: Enter on bounces during downtrend (e.g., at -3, -5, -7)
Risk Management:
Avoid entering at high numbers (+15, -15) - trend may be exhausted
Example:Candle: +1, +2, +3 ← Small pullback, BUY
Continue: +4, +5, +6, +7
Exit: When counter resets to -1
Strategy 3: Trend Exhaustion DetectionWarning Signs:
Counter reaches +10 or higher → Uptrend may be overextended
Counter reaches -10 or lower → Downtrend may be overextended
Action:
Tighten stop losses
Take partial profits
Watch for reversal patterns (doji, engulfing)
Strategy 4: Multi-Timeframe AnalysisSetup:
Add indicator to 3 timeframes (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h)
Look for alignment
Best Trades:15m: +1 (new uptrend)
1h: +5 (established uptrend)
4h: +3 (strong uptrend)
→ HIGH PROBABILITY BUY
6. Setting Up Alerts {#alerts}Built-in Alert Conditions:The script includes 2 automatic alerts:
"Uptrend Started" - Triggers when counter = +1
"Downtrend Started" - Triggers when counter = -1
How to Set Up Alerts:Step 1: Right-click on chart
Select "Add Alert"
Step 2: Configure Alert
Condition: Select "Trend Candle Counter"
Choose: "Uptrend Started" or "Downtrend Started"
Options:
Once per bar close (recommended)
Webhook URL (for automation)
Step 3: Notification Settings
✅ Popup
✅ Send email
✅ Push notification (mobile app)
✅ Play sound
Step 4: Create Alert
Click "Create"
Custom Alert Ideas:Alert for Specific Candle Numbers:
Notify when counter reaches +5 or -5
Notify when counter exceeds +10 or -10 (exhaustion)
7. Troubleshooting {#troubleshooting}Common Issues & Solutions:Issue 1: Labels are too cluttered
Solution:
Disable "Show Candle Numbers" in settings
Use larger timeframe
Reduce label size to "tiny"
Issue 2: Too many false signals
Solution:
Increase "Trend Detection Length" (e.g., 20, 50)
Wait for +2 or -2 confirmation
Combine with other indicators
Issue 3: Trend line doesn't match price action
Solution:
Adjust EMA length to match your trading style
Consider using different trend detection (SMA, HMA)
Issue 4: Indicator not showing on chart
Solution:
Check if it's in a separate pane - move to main chart
Refresh the page
Re-add the indicator
Issue 5: Counter seems delayed
Solution:
This is normal - indicator confirms on candle close
For faster signals, use lower timeframe
Reduce EMA length (but expect more noise)
8. Advanced Tips 💡Combining with Other Indicators:Best Combinations:
RSI + Trend Candle Counter
Buy at +1 when RSI > 50
Sell at -1 when RSI < 50
MACD + Trend Candle Counter
Confirm +1 with MACD bullish crossover
Confirm -1 with MACD bearish crossover
Volume + Trend Candle Counter
Strong trends (+1) should have increasing volume
Low volume at high numbers (+10) = exhaustion
Reading Market Psychology: {scrollbar-width:none;-ms-overflow-style:none;-webkit-overflow-scrolling:touch;} ::-webkit-scrollbar{display:none}Counter ValueMarket Psychology+1 to +3Early adopters entering+4 to +7Momentum building+8 to +12FOMO phase+13+Extreme greed - caution!-1 to -3Early sellers-4 to -7Panic building-8 to -12Capitulation-13+Extreme fear - reversal likely9. Real Trading Example 📊Scenario: BTC/USD 1H ChartTime | Counter | Action
--------|---------|----------------------------------
10:00 | -8 | Downtrend established
11:00 | -9 | Still falling
12:00 | -10 | Exhaustion zone - watch closely
13:00 | +1 | ✅ BUY SIGNAL - Trend reversal!
14:00 | +2 | Confirmation - trend valid
15:00 | +3 | Hold position
16:00 | +4 | Add to position (optional)
17:00 | +5 | Move stop loss to breakeven
...
22:00 | +11 | Take partial profits
23:00 | +12 | Tighten stop loss
00:00 | -1 | ❌ EXIT - Trend reversed
Alerte Croisement EMA9 & SMA12 (Zone remplie)📊 Moving Average 1
Period: 9 → The average is calculated over the last 9 candles (or time periods).
Shift: 0 → No shift; the average is aligned with the current data.
Method: Exponential → Uses an Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which gives more weight to recent data.
Apply to: Close → The average is based on the closing price of each candle.
📊 Moving Average 2
Period: 12 → Calculated over the last 12 periods.
Shift: 0 → No shift.
Method: Simple → Uses a Simple Moving Average (SMA), which gives equal weight to each period.
Apply to: Close → Based on closing prices.
SCTI - D14SCTI - D14 Comprehensive Technical Analysis Suite
English Description
SCTI D14 is an advanced multi-component technical analysis indicator designed for professional traders and analysts. This comprehensive suite combines multiple analytical tools into a single, powerful indicator that provides deep market insights across various timeframes and methodologies.
Core Components:
1. EMA System (Exponential Moving Averages)
13 customizable EMA lines with periods ranging from 8 to 2584
Fibonacci-based periods (8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584)
Color-coded visualization for easy trend identification
Individual toggle controls for each EMA line
2. TFMA (Multi-Timeframe Moving Averages)
Cross-timeframe analysis with 3 independent EMA calculations
Real-time labels showing trend direction and price relationships
Customizable timeframes for each moving average
Percentage deviation display from current price
3. PMA (Precision Moving Average Cloud)
7-layer moving average system with customizable periods
Fill areas between moving averages for trend visualization
Support and resistance zone identification
Dynamic color-coded trend clouds
4. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)
Multiple anchor points (Session, Week, Month, Quarter, Year, Earnings, Dividends, Splits)
Standard deviation bands for volatility analysis
Automatic session detection and anchoring
Statistical price level identification
5. Advanced Divergence Detector
12 technical indicators for divergence analysis (MACD, RSI, Stochastic, CCI, Williams %R, Bias, Momentum, OBV, VW-MACD, CMF, MFI, External)
Regular and hidden divergences detection
Bullish and bearish signals with visual confirmation
Customizable sensitivity and filtering options
Real-time alerts for divergence formations
6. Volume Profile & Node Analysis
Comprehensive volume distribution analysis
Point of Control (POC) identification
Value Area High/Low (VAH/VAL) calculations
Volume peaks and troughs detection
Support and resistance levels based on volume
7. Smart Money Concepts
Market structure analysis with Break of Structure (BOS) and Change of Character (CHoCH)
Internal and swing structure detection
Equal highs and lows identification
Fair Value Gaps (FVG) detection and visualization
Liquidity zones and institutional flow analysis
8. Trading Sessions
9 major trading sessions (Asia, Sydney, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Europe, London, New York, NYSE)
Real-time session status and countdown timers
Session volume and performance tracking
Customizable session boxes and labels
Statistical session analysis table
Key Features:
Modular Design: Enable/disable any component independently
Real-time Analysis: Live updates with market data
Multi-timeframe Support: Works across all chart timeframes
Customizable Alerts: Set alerts for any detected pattern or signal
Professional Visualization: Clean, organized display with customizable colors
Performance Optimized: Efficient code for smooth chart performance
Use Cases:
Trend Analysis: Identify market direction using multiple EMA systems
Entry/Exit Points: Use divergences and structure breaks for timing
Risk Management: Utilize volume profiles and session analysis for better positioning
Multi-timeframe Analysis: Confirm signals across different timeframes
Institutional Analysis: Track smart money flows and market structure
Perfect For:
Day traders seeking comprehensive market analysis
Swing traders needing multi-timeframe confirmation
Professional analysts requiring detailed market structure insights
Algorithmic traders looking for systematic signal generation
---
中文描述
SCTI - D14是一个先进的多组件技术分析指标，专为专业交易者和分析师设计。这个综合套件将多种分析工具整合到一个强大的指标中，在各种时间框架和方法论中提供深度市场洞察。
核心组件：
1. EMA系统（指数移动平均线）
13条可定制EMA线，周期从8到2584
基于斐波那契的周期（8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610, 987, 1597, 2584）
颜色编码可视化，便于趋势识别
每条EMA线的独立切换控制
2. TFMA（多时间框架移动平均线）
跨时间框架分析，包含3个独立的EMA计算
实时标签显示趋势方向和价格关系
每个移动平均线的可定制时间框架
显示与当前价格的百分比偏差
3. PMA（精密移动平均云）
7层移动平均系统，周期可定制
移动平均线间填充区域用于趋势可视化
支撑阻力区域识别
动态颜色编码趋势云
4. VWAP（成交量加权平均价格）
多个锚点（交易时段、周、月、季、年、财报、分红、拆股）
标准差带用于波动性分析
自动时段检测和锚定
统计价格水平识别
5. 高级背离检测器
12个技术指标用于背离分析（MACD、RSI、随机指标、CCI、威廉姆斯%R、Bias、动量、OBV、VW-MACD、CMF、MFI、外部指标）
常规和隐藏背离检测
看涨看跌信号配视觉确认
可定制敏感度和过滤选项
背离形成的实时警报
6. 成交量分布与节点分析
全面的成交量分布分析
控制点（POC）识别
价值区域高/低点（VAH/VAL）计算
成交量峰值和低谷检测
基于成交量的支撑阻力水平
7. 聪明钱概念
市场结构分析，包括结构突破（BOS）和结构转变（CHoCH）
内部和摆动结构检测
等高等低识别
公允价值缺口（FVG）检测和可视化
流动性区域和机构资金流分析
8. 交易时区
9个主要交易时段（亚洲、悉尼、东京、上海、香港、欧洲、伦敦、纽约、纽交所）
实时时段状态和倒计时器
时段成交量和表现跟踪
可定制时段框和标签
统计时段分析表格
主要特性：
模块化设计：可独立启用/禁用任何组件
实时分析：随市场数据实时更新
多时间框架支持：适用于所有图表时间框架
可定制警报：为任何检测到的模式或信号设置警报
专业可视化：清洁、有序的显示界面，颜色可定制
性能优化：高效代码确保图表流畅运行
使用场景：
趋势分析：使用多重EMA系统识别市场方向
入场/出场点：利用背离和结构突破进行时机选择
风险管理：利用成交量分布和时段分析进行更好定位
多时间框架分析：在不同时间框架间确认信号
机构分析：跟踪聪明钱流向和市场结构
适用于：
寻求全面市场分析的日内交易者
需要多时间框架确认的摆动交易者
需要详细市场结构洞察的专业分析师
寻求系统化信号生成的算法交易者
Foresight Cone (HoltxF1xVWAP) [KedArc Quant]Description:
This is a time-series forecasting indicator that estimates the next bar (F1) and projects a path a few bars ahead. It also draws a confidence cone based on how accurate the recent forecasts have been. You can optionally color the projection only when price agrees with VWAP.
Why it’s different
* One clear model: Everything comes from Holt’s trend-aware forecasting method—no mix of unrelated indicators.
* Transparent visuals: You see the next-bar estimate (F1), the forward projection, and a cone that widens or narrows based on recent forecast error.
* Context, not signals: The VWAP option only changes colors. It doesn’t add trade rules.
* No look-ahead: Accuracy is measured using the forecast made on the previous bar versus the current bar.
Inputs (what they mean)
* Source: Price series to forecast (default: Close).
* Preset: Quick profiles for fast, smooth, or momentum markets (see below).
* Alpha (Level): How fast the model reacts to new prices. Higher = faster, twitchier.
* Beta (Trend): How fast the model updates the slope. Higher = faster pivots, more flips in chop.
* Horizon: How many bars ahead to project. Bigger = wider cone.
* Residual Window: How many bars to judge recent accuracy. Bigger = steadier cone.
* Confidence Z: How wide the cone should be (typical setting ≈ “95% style” width).
* Show Bands / Draw Forward Path: Turn the cone and forward lines on/off.
* Color only when aligned with VWAP: Highlights projections only when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP.
* Colors / Show Panel: Styling plus a small panel with RMSE, MAPE, and trend slope.
Presets (when to pick which)
* Scalp / Fast (1-min): Very responsive; best for quick moves. More twitch in chop.
* Smooth Intraday (1–5 min): Calmer and steadier; a good default most days.
* Momentum / Breakout: Quicker slope tracking during strong pushes; may over-react in ranges.
* Custom: Set your own values if you know exactly what you want.
What is F1 here?
F1 is the model’s next-bar fair value. Crosses of price versus F1 can hint at short-term momentum shifts or mean-reversion, especially when viewed with VWAP or the cone.
How this helps
* Gives a baseline path of where price may drift and a cone that shows normal wiggle room.
* Helps you tell routine noise (inside cone) from information (edges or breaks outside the cone).
* Keeps you aware of short-term bias via the trend slope and F1.
How to use (step by step)
1. Add to chart → choose a Preset (start with Smooth Intraday).
2. Set Horizon around 8–15 bars for intraday.
3. (Optional) Turn on VWAP alignment to color only when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP.
4. Watch where price sits relative to the cone and F1:
* Inside = normal noise.
* At edges = stretched.
* Outside = possible regime change.
5. Check the panel: if RMSE/MAPE spike, expect a wider cone; consider a smoother preset or a higher timeframe.
6. Tweak Alpha/Beta only if needed: faster for momentum, slower for chop.
7. Combine with your own plan for entries, exits, and risk.
Accuracy Panel — what it tells you
Preset & Horizon: Shows which preset you’re using and how many bars ahead the projection goes. Longer horizons mean more uncertainty.
RMSE (error in price units): A “typical miss” measured in the chart’s currency (e.g., ₹).
Lower = tighter fit and a usually narrower cone. Rising = conditions getting noisier; the cone will widen.
MAPE (error in %): The same idea as RMSE but in percent.
Good for comparing different symbols or timeframes. Sudden spikes often hint at a regime change.
Slope T: The model’s short-term trend reading.
Positive = gentle up-bias; negative = gentle down-bias; near zero = mostly flat/drifty.
How to read it at a glance
Calm & directional: RMSE/MAPE steady or falling + Slope T positive (or negative) → trends tend to respect the cone’s mid/upper (or mid/lower) area.
Choppy/uncertain: RMSE/MAPE climbing or jumping → expect more whipsaw; rely more on the cone edges and higher-TF context.
Flat tape: Slope T near zero → mean-revert behavior is common; treat cone edges as stretch zones rather than breakout zones.
Warm-up & tweaks
Warm-up: Right after adding the indicator, the panel may be blank for a short time while it gathers enough bars.
Too twitchy? Switch to Smooth Intraday or increase the Residual Window.
Too slow? Use Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout to react quicker.
Timeframe tips
* 1–3 min: Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout; horizon \~8–12.
* 5–15 min: Smooth Intraday; horizon \~12–15.
* 30–60 min+: Consider a larger residual window for a steadier cone.
FAQ
Q: Is this a strategy or an indicator?
A: It’s an indicator only. It does not place orders, TP/SL, or run backtests.
Q: Does it repaint?
A: The next-bar estimate (F1) and the cone are calculated using only information available at that time. The forward path is a projection drawn on the last bar and will naturally update as new bars arrive. Historical bars aren’t revised with future data.
Q: What is F1?
A: F1 is the indicator’s best guess for the next bar.
Price crossing above/below F1 can hint at short-term momentum shifts or mean-reversion.
Q: What do “Alpha” and “Beta” do?
A: Alpha controls how fast the indicator reacts to new prices
(higher = faster, twitchier). Beta controls how fast the slope updates (higher = quicker pivots, more flips in chop).
Q: Why does the cone width change?
A: It reflects recent forecast accuracy. When the market gets noisy, the cone widens. When the tape is calm, it narrows.
Q: What does the Accuracy Panel tell me?
A:
* Preset & Horizon you’re using.
* RMSE: typical forecast miss in price units.
* MAPE: typical forecast miss in percent.
* Slope T: short-term trend reading (up, down, or flat).
If RMSE/MAPE rise, expect a wider cone and more whipsaw.
Q: The panel shows “…” or looks empty. Why?
A: It needs a short warm-up to gather enough bars. This is normal after you add the indicator or change settings/timeframes.
Q: Which timeframe is best?
A:
* 1–3 min: Scalp/Fast or Momentum/Breakout, horizon \~8–12.
* 5–15 min: Smooth Intraday, horizon \~12–15.
Higher timeframes work too; consider a larger residual window for steadier cones.
Q: Which preset should I start with?
A: Start with Smooth Intraday. If the market is trending hard, try Momentum/Breakout.
For very quick tapes, use Scalp/Fast. Switch back if things get choppy.
Q: What does the VWAP option do?
A: It only changes colors (highlights when price agrees with the trend side of VWAP).
It does not add or remove signals.
Q: Are there alerts?
A: Yes—alerts for price crossing F1 (up/down). Use “Once per bar close” to reduce noise on fast charts.
Q: Can I use this on stocks, futures, crypto, or FX?
A: Yes. It works on any symbol/timeframe. You may want to adjust Horizon and the Residual Window based on volatility.
Q: Can I use it with Heikin Ashi or other non-standard bars?
A: You can, but remember you’re forecasting the synthetic series of those bars. For pure price behavior, use regular candles.
Q: The cone feels too wide/too narrow. What do I change?
A:
* Too wide: lower Alpha/Beta a bit or increase the Residual Window.
* Too narrow (misses moves): raise Alpha/Beta slightly or try Momentum/Breakout.
Q: Why do results change when I switch timeframe or symbol?
A: Different noise levels and trends. The accuracy stats reset per chart, so the cone adapts to each context.
Q: Any limits or gotchas?
A: Extremely large Horizon may hit TradingView’s line-object limits; reduce Horizon or turn
off extra visuals if needed. Big gaps or news spikes will widen errors—expect the cone to react.
Q: Can this predict exact future prices?
A: No. It provides a baseline path and context. Always combine with your own rules and risk management.
Glossary
* TS (Time Series): Data over time (prices).
* Holt’s Method: A forecasting approach that tracks a current level and a trend to predict the next bars.
* F1: The indicator’s best guess for the next bar.
* F(h): The projected value h bars ahead.
* VWAP: Volume-Weighted Average Price—used here for optional color alignment.
* RMSE: Typical forecast miss in price units (how far off, on average).
* MAPE: Typical forecast miss in percent (scale-free, easy to compare).
Notes & limitations
* The panel needs a short warm-up; stats may be blank at first.
* The cone reflects recent conditions; sudden volatility changes will widen it.
* This is a tool for context. It does not place trades and does not promise results.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational purposes only.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trading involves risk, and users should exercise caution and use proper risk management when applying this strategy.
BioSwarm Imprinter™BioSwarm Imprinter™ — Agent-Based Consensus for Traders
What it is
BioSwarm Imprinter™ is a non-repainting, agent-based sentiment oscillator. It fuses many short-to-medium lookback “opinions” into one 0–100 consensus line that is easy to read at a glance (50 = neutral, >55 bullish bias, <45 bearish bias). The engine borrows from swarm intelligence: many simple voters (agents) adapt their influence over time based on how well they’ve been predicting price, so the crowd gets smarter as conditions change.
Use it to:
• Detect emerging trends sooner without overreacting to noise.
• Filter mean-reversion vs continuation opportunities.
• Gate entries with a confidence score that reflects both strength and persistence of the move.
• Combine with your execution tools (VWAP/ORB/levels) as a state filter rather than a trade signal by itself.
⸻
Why it’s different
• Swarm learning: Each agent improves or decays its “fitness” depending on whether its vote matched the next bar’s direction. High-fitness agents matter more; weak agents fade.
• Multi-horizon by design: The crowd is composed of fixed, simple lookbacks spread from lenMin to lenMax. You get a blended, robust view instead of a single fragile parameter.
• Two complementary lenses: Each agent evaluates RSI-style balance (via Wilder’s RMA) and momentum (EMA deviation). You decide the weight of each.
• No repaint, no MTF pitfalls: Everything runs on the chart’s timeframe with bar-close confirmation; no request.security() or forward references.
• Actionable UI: A clean consensus line, optional regime background, confidence heat, and triangle markers when thresholds are crossed.
⸻
What you see on the chart
• Consensus line (0–100): Smoothed to your preference; color/area makes bull/bear zones obvious.
• Regime coloring (optional): Light green in bull zone, light red in bear zone; neutral otherwise.
• Confidence heat: A small gauge/number (0–100) that combines distance from neutral and recent persistence.
• Markers (optional): Triangles when consensus crosses up through your bull threshold (e.g., 55) or down through your bear threshold (e.g., 45).
• Info panel (optional): Consensus value, regime, confidence, number of agents, and basic diagnostics.
⸻
How it works (under the hood)
1. Horizon bins: The range is divided into numBins. Each bin has a fixed, simple integer length (crucial for Pine’s safety rules).
2. Per-bin features (computed every bar):
• RSI-style balance using Wilder’s RMA (not ta.rsi()), then mapped to −1…+1.
• Momentum as (close − EMA(L)) / EMA(L) (dimensionless drift).
3. Agent vote: For its assigned bin, an agent forms a weighted score: score = wRSI*RSI_like + wMOM*Momentum. A small dead-band near zero suppresses chop; votes are +1/−1/0.
4. Fitness update (bar close): If the agent’s previous vote agreed with the next bar’s direction, multiply its fitness by learnGain; otherwise by learnPain. Fitness is clamped so it never explodes or dies.
5. Consensus: Weighted average of all votes using fitness as weights → map to 0–100 and smooth with EMA.
Why it doesn’t repaint:
• No future references, no MTF resampling, fitness updates only on confirmed bars.
• All TA primitives (RMA/EMA/deltas) are computed every bar unconditionally.
⸻
Signals & confidence
• Bullish bias: consensus ≥ bullThr (e.g., 55).
• Bearish bias: consensus ≤ bearThr (e.g., 45).
• Confidence (0–100):
• Distance score: how far consensus is from 50.
• Momentum score: how strong the recent change is versus its recent average.
• Combined into a single gate; start filtering entries at ≥60 for higher quality.
Tip: For range sessions, raise thresholds (60/40) and increase smoothing; for momentum sessions, lower smoothing and keep thresholds at 55/45.
⸻
Inputs you’ll actually tune
• Agents & horizons:
• N_agents (e.g., 64–128)
• lenMin / lenMax (e.g., 6–30 intraday, 10–60 swing)
• numBins (e.g., 12–24)
• Weights & smoothing:
• wRSI vs wMOM (e.g., 0.7/0.3 for FX & indices; 0.6/0.4 for crypto)
• deadBand (0.03–0.08)
• consSmooth (3–8)
• Thresholds & hygiene:
• bullThr/bearThr (55/45 default)
• cooldownBars to avoid signal spam
⸻
Playbooks (ready-to-use)
1) Breakout / Trend continuation
• Timeframe: 15m–1h for day/swing.
• Filter: Take longs only when consensus > 55 and confidence ≥ 60.
• Execution: Use your ORB/VWAP/pullback trigger for entry. Trail with swing lows or 1.5×ATR. Exit on a close back under 50 or when a bearish signal prints.
2) Mean reversion (fade)
• When: Sideways days or low-volatility clusters.
• Setup: Increase deadBand and consSmooth.
• Signal: Bearish fades when consensus rolls over below ≈55 but stays above 50; bullish fades when it rolls up above ≈45 but stays below 50.
• Targets: The neutral zone (~50) as the first take-profit.
3) Multi-TF alignment
• Keep BioSwarm on 1H for bias, execute on 5–15m:
• Only take entries in the direction of the 1H consensus.
• Skip counter-bias scalps unless confidence is very low (explicit mean-reversion plan).
⸻
Integrations that work
• DynamoSent Pro+ (macro bias): Only act when macro bias and swarm consensus agree.
• ORB + Session VWAP Pro: Trade London/NY ORB breakouts that retest while consensus >55 (long) or <45 (short).
• Levels/Orderflow: BioSwarm is your “go / no-go”; execution stays with your usual triggers.
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Quick start
1. Drop the indicator on a 1H chart.
2. Start with: N_agents=64, lenMin=6, lenMax=30, numBins=16, deadBand=0.06, consSmooth=5, thresholds 55/45.
3. Trade only when confidence ≥ 60.
4. Add your favorite execution tool (VWAP/levels/OR) for entries & exits.
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Non-repainting & safety notes
• No request.security(); no hidden lookahead.
• Bar-close confirmation for fitness and signals.
• All TA calls are unconditional (no “sometimes called” warnings).
• No series-length inputs to RSI/EMA — we use RMA/EMA formulas that accept fixed simple ints per bin.
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Known limits & tips
• Too many signals? Raise deadBand, increase consSmooth, widen thresholds to 60/40.
• Too few signals? Lower deadBand, reduce consSmooth, narrow thresholds to 53/47.
• Over-fitting risk: Keep learnGain/learnPain modest (e.g., ×1.04 / ×0.96).
• Compute load: Large N_agents × numBins is heavier; scale to your device.
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Example recipes
EURUSD 1H (swing):
lenMin=8, lenMax=34, numBins=16, wRSI=0.7, wMOM=0.3, deadBand=0.06, consSmooth=6, thr=55/45
Buy breakouts when consensus >55 and confidence ≥60; confirm with 5–15m pullback to VWAP or level.
SPY 15m (US session):
lenMin=6, lenMax=24, numBins=12, consSmooth=4, deadBand=0.05
On trend days, stay with longs as long as consensus >55; add on shallow pullbacks.
BTC 1H (24/7):
Increase momentum weight: wRSI=0.6, wMOM=0.4, extend lenMax to ~50. Use dynamic stops (ATR) and partials on strong verticals.
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Final word
BioSwarm is a state engine: it tells you when the market is primed to continue or mean-revert. Pair it with your entries and risk framework to turn that state into trades. If you’d like, I can supply a companion strategy template that consumes the consensus and back-tests the three playbooks (Breakout/Fade/Flip) with standard risk management.
Piano Frequency LevelsPiano Frequency Levels
This indicator applies the mathematical principles of musical harmony to market analysis, creating support and resistance levels based on authentic piano frequency ratios. Drawing from centuries-old musical theory, it maps the precise mathematical relationships between piano keys to price levels.
How It Works: The indicator uses the exact frequency ratios from equal temperament tuning - the same mathematical system that makes pianos sound harmonious. Each level represents an actual piano key frequency, scaled proportionally to your chosen anchor price.
Key Features:
• Piano-Based Ratios: Uses authentic 12-tone equal temperament frequency relationships (1.05946 ratio between semitones)
• Directional Intelligence: Automatically creates ascending levels from lows (resistance) or descending levels from highs (support)
• Musical Note Labels: Optional display of actual piano key names (C4, D#5, F6, etc.) alongside price levels
• Black Key Subdivisions: Toggle authentic sharp/flat keys between natural notes for additional precision
• Octave Color Coding: Each musical octave displays in a different color for easy visual identification
• Anchor Reference: Bright green line clearly marks your C-note reference point
Musical Foundation: Every level corresponds to an actual piano key. The anchor point represents "C" (the musical root), with levels progressing through the natural musical sequence: C, D, E, F, G, A, B, then repeating in higher octaves. This creates proportional spacing that mirrors the harmonic relationships musicians have used for centuries.
Usage:
1. Set your anchor to a significant market high or low
2. Choose your desired number of levels (typically 12-24 for 1-2 octaves)
3. Enable "Add Black Keys" for additional intermediate levels
4. Enable "Show Note Names" to see which piano key each level represents
The Theory: Musical harmony is based on precise mathematical ratios that create pleasing relationships between frequencies. These same mathematical principles may manifest in market movements, as price action often exhibits proportional relationships similar to musical intervals.
Unique Advantages:
• Based on established mathematical principles rather than arbitrary ratios
• Provides both major levels (white keys) and intermediate levels (black keys)
• Automatically adapts direction based on anchor type (high vs low)
• Maintains authentic musical relationships across all timeframes and price ranges
Important Note: This indicator presents a theoretical framework for market analysis. Like all technical analysis tools, it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and proper risk management. The musical ratios provide a unique perspective on potential support and resistance levels, but past performance does not guarantee future results.
Transform your charts into a musical instrument and discover the hidden harmonies in market movements.
Trend FriendTrend Friend — What it is and how to use it
I built Trend Friend to stop redrawing the same trendlines all day. It automatically connects confirmed swing points (fractals) and keeps the most relevant lines in front of you. The goal: give you clean, actionable structure without the guesswork.
What it does (in plain English)
Finds swing highs/lows using a Fractal Period you choose.
Draws auto-trendlines between the two most recent confirmed highs and the two most recent confirmed lows.
Colours by intent:
Lines drawn from highs (potential resistance / bearish) = Red
Lines drawn from lows (potential support / bullish) = Green
Keeps the chart tidy: The newest lines are styled as “recent,” older lines are dimmed as “historical,” and it prunes anything beyond your chosen limit.
Optional crosses & alerts: You can highlight when price closes across the most recent line and set alerts for new lines formed and upper/lower line crosses.
Structure labels: It tags HH, LH, HL, LL at the swing points, so you can quickly read trend/rotation.
How it works (under the hood)
A “fractal” here is a confirmed pivot: the highest high (or lowest low) with n bars on each side. That means pivots only confirm after n bars, so signals are cleaner and less noisy.
When a new pivot prints, the script connects it to the prior pivot of the same type (high→high, low→low). That gives you one “bearish” line from highs and one “bullish” line from lows.
The newest line is marked as recent (brighter), and the previous recent line becomes historical (dimmed). You can keep as many pairs as you want, but I usually keep it tight.
Inputs you’ll actually use
Fractal Period (n): this is the big one. It controls how swingy/strict the pivots are.
Lower n → more swings, more lines (faster, noisier)
Higher n → fewer swings, cleaner lines (slower, swing-trade friendly)
Max pair of lines: how many pairs (up+down) to keep on the chart. 1–3 is a sweet spot.
Extend: extend lines Right (my default) or Both ways if you like the context.
Line widths & colours: recent vs. historical are separate so you can make the active lines pop.
Show crosses: toggle the X markers when price crosses a line. I turn this on when I’m actively hunting breakouts/retests.
Reading the chart
Red lines (from highs): I treat these as potential resistance. A clean break + hold above a red line often flips me from “fade” to “follow.”
Green lines (from lows): Potential support. Same idea in reverse: break + hold below and I stop buying dips until I see structure reclaim.
HH / LH / HL / LL dots: quick read on structure.
HH/HL bias = uptrend continuation potential
LH/LL bias = downtrend continuation potential
Mixed prints = rotation/chop—tighten risk or wait for clarity.
My H1 guidance (fine-tuning Fractal Period)
If you’re mainly on H1 (my use case), tune like this:
Fast / aggressive: n = 6–8 (lots of signals, good for momentum days; more chop risk)
Balanced (recommended): n = 9–12 (keeps lines meaningful but responsive)
Slow / swing focus: n = 13–21 (filters noise; better for trend days and higher-TF confluence)
Rule of thumb: if you’re getting too many touches and whipsaws, increase n. If you’re late to obvious breaks, decrease n.
How I trade it (example workflow)
Pick your n for the session (H1: start at 9–12).
Mark the recent red & green lines. That’s your immediate structure.
Look for interaction:
Rejections from a line = fade potential back into the range.
Break + close across a line = watch the retest for continuation.
Confirm with context: session bias, HTF structure, and your own tools (VWAP, RSI, volume, FVG/OB, etc.).
Plan the trade: enter on retest or reclaim, stop beyond the line/last swing, target the opposite side or next structure.
Alerts (set and forget)
“New trendline formed” — fires when a new high/low pivot confirms and a fresh line is drawn.
“Upper/lower trendline crossed” — fires when price crosses the most recent red/green line.
Use these to track structure shifts without staring at the screen.
Good to know (honest limitations)
Confirmation lag: pivots need n bars on both sides, so signals arrive after the swing confirms. That’s by design—less noise, fewer fake lines.
Lines update as structure evolves: when a new pivot forms, the previous “recent” line becomes “historical,” and older ones can be removed based on your max setting.
Not an auto trendline crystal ball: it won’t predict which line holds or breaks—it just keeps the most relevant structure clean and up to date.
Final notes
Works on any timeframe; I built it with H1 in mind and scale to H4/D1 by increasing n.
Pairs nicely with session tools and VWAP for intraday, or with supply/demand / FVGs for swing planning.
Risk first: lines are structure, not guarantees. Manage position size and stops as usual.
Not financial advice. Trade your plan. Stay nimble.
RSI Crossover AlertRSI Crossover Alert Indicator - User Guide
The RSI Crossover Alert Indicator is a comprehensive technical analysis tool that detects multiple types of RSI crossovers and generates real-time alerts. It combines traditional RSI analysis with signal lines, divergence detection, and multi-level crossing alerts.
1. Multiple Crossover Detection
- RSI/Signal Line Cross: Signals a primary trend change.
- RSI/Second Signal Cross: Confirmation signals for stronger trends.
- Level Crossings: Crosses of Overbought 70, Oversold 30, and Midline 50.
- Divergence Detection: Hidden and regular divergences for reversal signals.
2. Alert Types
- Alert: RSI > Signal
Description: Bullish momentum is building.
Signal: Consider long positions.
- Alert: RSI < Signal
Description: Bearish momentum is building.
Signal: Consider short positions.
- Alert: RSI > 70
Description: Entering the overbought zone.
Signal: Prepare for a potential reversal.
- Alert: RSI < 30
Description: Entering the oversold zone.
Signal: Watch for a bounce opportunity.
- Alert: RSI crosses 50
Description: A shift in momentum.
Signal: Trend confirmation.
3. Visual Components
- Lines: RSI blue, Signal orange, Second Signal purple
- Histogram: Visualizes momentum by showing the difference between RSI and the Signal line.
- Background Zones: Red overbought, Green oversold
- Markers: Up/down triangles to indicate crossovers.
- Info Table: Real-time RSI values and status.
Strategy 1: Classic Crossover
- Entry Long: RSI crosses above the Signal Line AND RSI is below 50.
- Entry Short: RSI crosses below the Signal Line AND RSI is above 50.
- Take Profit: On the opposite signal.
- Stop Loss: At the recent swing high/low.
Strategy 2: Extreme Zone Reversal
- Entry Long: RSI is below 30 and crosses above the Signal Line.
- Entry Short: RSI is above 70 and crosses below the Signal Line.
- Risk Management: Higher win rate but fewer signals. Use a minimum 2:1 risk-reward ratio.
Strategy 3: Divergence Trading
- Setup: Enable divergence alerts and look for price/RSI divergence. Wait for an RSI crossover for confirmation.
- Entry: Enter on the crossover after the divergence appears. Place the stop loss beyond the starting point of the divergence.
Strategy 4: Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
1. Check the higher timeframe e.g. Daily to identify the main trend.
2. Use the current timeframe e.g. 4H/1H for your entry.
3. Only enter in the direction of the main trend.
4. Use the RSI crossover as the entry trigger.
Optimal Settings by Market
- Forex Major Pairs
RSI Length: 14, Signal Length: 9, Overbought/Oversold: 70/30
- Crypto High Volatility
RSI Length: 10-12, Signal Length: 6-8, Overbought/Oversold: 75/25
- Stocks Trending
RSI Length: 14-21, Signal Length: 9-12, Overbought/Oversold: 70/30
- Commodities
RSI Length: 14, Signal Length: 9, Overbought/Oversold: 80/20
Risk Management Rules
1. Position Sizing: Never risk more than 1-2% on a single trade. Reduce size in ranging markets.
2. Stop Loss Placement: Place stops beyond the recent swing high/low for crossovers. Using an ATR-based stop is also effective.
3. Profit Taking: Take partial profits at a 1:1 risk-reward ratio. Switch to a trailing stop after reaching 2:1.
1. Filtering Signals
- Combine with volume indicators.
- Confirm the trend on a higher timeframe.
- Wait for candlestick pattern confirmation.
2. Avoid Common Mistakes
- Don't trade every single crossover.
- Avoid taking signals against a strong trend.
- Do not ignore risk management.
3. Market Conditions
- Trending Market: Focus on midline 50 crosses.
- Ranging Market: Look for reversals from overbought/oversold levels.
- Volatile Market: Widen the overbought/oversold levels.
- If you get too many false signals:
Increase the signal line period, add other confirmation indicators, or use a higher timeframe.
- If you are missing major moves:
Decrease the RSI length, shorten the signal line period, or check your alert settings.
Recommended Combinations
1. RSI + MACD: For dual momentum confirmation.
2. RSI + Bollinger Bands: For volatility-adjusted signals.
3. RSI + Volume: To confirm the strength of a signal.
4. RSI + Moving Averages: To use as a trend filter.
This indicator provides a comprehensive RSI analysis. Success depends on proper configuration, risk management, and combining signals with the overall market context. Start with the default settings, then optimize based on your trading style and market conditions.
