Weighted Moving Average (WMA)This implementation uses O(1) algorithm that eliminates the need to loop through all period values on each bar. It also generates valid WMA values from the first bar and is not returning NA when number of bars is less than period.
## Overview and Purpose
The Weighted Moving Average (WMA) is a technical indicator that applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data. Emerging in the early 1950s during the formative years of technical analysis, WMA gained significant adoption among professional traders through the 1970s as computational methods became more accessible. The approach was formalized in Robert Colby's 1988 "Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators," establishing it as a staple in technical analysis software. Unlike the Simple Moving Average (SMA) which gives equal weight to all prices, WMA assigns greater importance to recent prices, creating a more responsive indicator that reacts faster to price changes while still providing effective noise filtering.
## Core Concepts
* **Linear weighting:** WMA applies progressively increasing weights to more recent price data, creating a recency bias that improves responsiveness
* **Market application:** Particularly effective for identifying trend changes earlier than SMA while maintaining better noise filtering than faster-responding averages like EMA
* **Timeframe flexibility:** Works effectively across all timeframes, with appropriate period adjustments for different trading horizons
The core innovation of WMA is its linear weighting scheme, which strikes a balance between the equal-weight approach of SMA and the exponential decay of EMA. This creates an intuitive and effective compromise that prioritizes recent data while maintaining a finite lookback period, making it particularly valuable for traders seeking to reduce lag without excessive sensitivity to price fluctuations.
## Common Settings and Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Function | When to Adjust |
|-----------|---------|----------|---------------|
| Length | 14 | Controls the lookback period | Increase for smoother signals in volatile markets, decrease for responsiveness |
| Source | close | Price data used for calculation | Consider using hlc3 for a more balanced price representation |
**Pro Tip:** For most trading applications, using a WMA with period N provides better responsiveness than an SMA with the same period, while generating fewer whipsaws than an EMA with comparable responsiveness.
## Calculation and Mathematical Foundation
**Simplified explanation:**
WMA calculates a weighted average of prices where the most recent price receives the highest weight, and each progressively older price receives one unit less weight. For example, in a 5-period WMA, the most recent price gets a weight of 5, the next most recent a weight of 4, and so on, with the oldest price getting a weight of 1.
**Technical formula:**
```
WMA = (P₁ × w₁ + P₂ × w₂ + ... + Pₙ × wₙ) / (w₁ + w₂ + ... + wₙ)
```
Where:
- Linear weights: most recent value has weight = n, second most recent has weight = n-1, etc.
- The sum of weights for a period n is calculated as: n(n+1)/2
- For example, for a 5-period WMA, the sum of weights is 5(5+1)/2 = 15
**O(1) Optimization - Dual Running Sums:**
The key insight is maintaining two running sums:
1. **Unweighted sum (S)**: Simple sum of all values in the window
2. **Weighted sum (W)**: Sum of all weighted values
The recurrence relation for a full window is:
```
W_new = W_old - S_old + (n × P_new)
```
This works because when all weights decrement by 1 (as the window slides), it's mathematically equivalent to subtracting the entire unweighted sum. The implementation:
- **During warmup**: Accumulates both sums as the window fills, computing denominator each bar
- **After warmup**: Uses cached denominator (constant at n(n+1)/2), updates both sums in constant time
- **Performance**: ~8 operations per bar regardless of period, vs ~100+ for naive O(n) implementation
> 🔍 **Technical Note:** Unlike EMA which theoretically considers all historical data (with diminishing influence), WMA has a finite memory, completely dropping prices that fall outside its lookback window. This creates a cleaner break from outdated market conditions. The O(1) optimization achieves 12-25x speedup over naive implementations while maintaining exact mathematical equivalence.
## Interpretation Details
WMA can be used in various trading strategies:
* **Trend identification:** The direction of WMA indicates the prevailing trend with greater responsiveness than SMA
* **Signal generation:** Crossovers between price and WMA generate trade signals earlier than with SMA
* **Support/resistance levels:** WMA can act as dynamic support during uptrends and resistance during downtrends
* **Moving average crossovers:** When a shorter-period WMA crosses above a longer-period WMA, it signals a potential uptrend (and vice versa)
* **Trend strength assessment:** Distance between price and WMA can indicate trend strength
## Limitations and Considerations
* **Market conditions:** Still suboptimal in highly volatile or sideways markets where enhanced responsiveness may generate false signals
* **Lag factor:** While less than SMA, still introduces some lag in signal generation
* **Abrupt window exit:** The oldest price suddenly drops out of calculation when leaving the window, potentially causing small jumps
* **Step changes:** Linear weighting creates discrete steps in influence rather than a smooth decay
* **Complementary tools:** Best used with volume indicators and momentum oscillators for confirmation
## References
* Colby, Robert W. "The Encyclopedia of Technical Market Indicators." McGraw-Hill, 2002
* Murphy, John J. "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets." New York Institute of Finance, 1999
* Kaufman, Perry J. "Trading Systems and Methods." Wiley, 2013
在脚本中搜索"ha溢价率"
J.P. Morgan Efficiente 5 IndexJ.P. MORGAN EFFICIENTE 5 INDEX REPLICATION
Walk into any retail trading forum and you'll find the same scene playing out thousands of times a day: traders huddled over their screens, drawing trendlines on candlestick charts, hunting for the perfect entry signal, convinced that the next RSI crossover will unlock the path to financial freedom. Meanwhile, in the towers of lower Manhattan and the City of London, portfolio managers are doing something entirely different. They're not drawing lines. They're not hunting patterns. They're building fortresses of diversification, wielding mathematical frameworks that have survived decades of market chaos, and most importantly, they're thinking in portfolios while retail thinks in positions.
This divide is not just philosophical. It's structural, mathematical, and ultimately, profitable. The uncomfortable truth that retail traders must confront is this: while you're obsessing over whether the 50-day moving average will cross the 200-day, institutional investors are solving quadratic optimization problems across thirteen asset classes, rebalancing monthly according to Markowitz's Nobel Prize-winning framework, and targeting precise volatility levels that allow them to sleep at night regardless of what the VIX does tomorrow. The game you're playing and the game they're playing share the same field, but the rules are entirely different.
The question, then, is not whether retail traders can access institutional strategies. The question is whether they're willing to fundamentally change how they think about markets. Are you ready to stop painting lines and start building portfolios?
THE INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK: HOW THE PROFESSIONALS ACTUALLY THINK
When Harry Markowitz published "Portfolio Selection" in The Journal of Finance in 1952, he fundamentally altered how sophisticated investors approach markets. His insight was deceptively simple: returns alone mean nothing. Risk-adjusted returns mean everything. For this revelation, he would eventually receive the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1990, and his framework would become the foundation upon which trillions of dollars are managed today (Markowitz, 1952).
Modern Portfolio Theory, as it came to be known, introduced a revolutionary concept: through diversification across imperfectly correlated assets, an investor could reduce portfolio risk without sacrificing expected returns. This wasn't about finding the single best asset. It was about constructing the optimal combination of assets. The mathematics are elegant in their logic: if two assets don't move in perfect lockstep, combining them creates a portfolio whose volatility is lower than the weighted average of the individual volatilities. This "free lunch" of diversification became the bedrock of institutional investment management (Elton et al., 2014).
But here's where retail traders miss the point entirely: this isn't about having ten different stocks instead of one. It's about systematic, mathematically rigorous allocation across asset classes with fundamentally different risk drivers. When equity markets crash, high-quality government bonds often rally. When inflation surges, commodities may provide protection even as stocks and bonds both suffer. When emerging markets are in vogue, developed markets may lag. The professional investor doesn't predict which scenario will unfold. Instead, they position for all of them simultaneously, with weights determined not by gut feeling but by quantitative optimization.
This is what J.P. Morgan Asset Management embedded into their Efficiente Index series. These are not actively managed funds where a portfolio manager makes discretionary calls. They are rules-based, systematic strategies that execute the Markowitz framework in real-time, rebalancing monthly to maintain optimal risk-adjusted positioning across global equities, fixed income, commodities, and defensive assets (J.P. Morgan Asset Management, 2016).
THE EFFICIENTE 5 STRATEGY: DECONSTRUCTING INSTITUTIONAL METHODOLOGY
The Efficiente 5 Index, specifically, targets a 5% annualized volatility. Let that sink in for a moment. While retail traders routinely accept 20%, 30%, or even 50% annual volatility in pursuit of returns, institutional allocators have determined that 5% volatility provides an optimal balance between growth potential and capital preservation. This isn't timidity. It's mathematics. At higher volatility levels, the compounding drag from large drawdowns becomes mathematically punishing. A 50% loss requires a 100% gain just to break even. The institutional solution: constrain volatility at the portfolio level, allowing the power of compounding to work unimpeded (Damodaran, 2008).
The strategy operates across thirteen exchange-traded funds spanning five distinct asset classes: developed equity markets (SPY, IWM, EFA), fixed income across the risk spectrum (TLT, LQD, HYG), emerging markets (EEM, EMB), alternatives (IYR, GSG, GLD), and defensive positioning (TIP, BIL). These aren't arbitrary choices. Each ETF represents a distinct factor exposure, and together they provide access to the primary drivers of global asset returns (Fama and French, 1993).
The methodology, as detailed in replication research by Jungle Rock (2025), follows a precise monthly cadence. At the end of each month, the strategy recalculates expected returns and volatilities for all thirteen assets using a 126-day rolling window. This six-month lookback balances responsiveness to changing market conditions against the noise of short-term fluctuations. The optimization engine then solves for the portfolio weights that maximize expected return subject to the 5% volatility target, with additional constraints to prevent excessive concentration.
These constraints are critical and reveal institutional wisdom that retail traders typically ignore. No single ETF can exceed 20% of the portfolio, except for TIP and BIL which can reach 50% given their defensive nature. At the asset class level, developed equities are capped at 50%, bonds at 50%, emerging markets at 25%, and alternatives at 25%. These aren't arbitrary limits. They're guardrails preventing the optimization from becoming too aggressive during periods when recent performance might suggest concentrating heavily in a single area that's been hot (Jorion, 1992).
After optimization, there's one final step that appears almost trivial but carries profound implications: weights are rounded to the nearest 5%. In a world of fractional shares and algorithmic execution, why round to 5%? The answer reveals institutional practicality over mathematical purity. A portfolio weight of 13.7% and 15.0% are functionally similar in their risk contribution, but the latter is vastly easier to communicate, to monitor, and to execute at scale. When you're managing billions, parsimony matters.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR RETAIL: THE GAP BETWEEN APPROACH AND EXECUTION
Here's the uncomfortable reality: most retail traders are playing a different game entirely, and they don't even realize it. When a retail trader says "I'm bullish on tech," they buy QQQ and that's their entire technology exposure. When they say "I need some diversification," they buy ten different stocks, often in correlated sectors. This isn't diversification in the Markowitzian sense. It's concentration with extra steps.
The institutional approach represented by the Efficiente 5 is fundamentally different in several ways. First, it's systematic. Emotions don't drive the allocation. The mathematics do. When equities have rallied hard and now represent 55% of the portfolio despite a 50% cap, the system sells equities and buys bonds or alternatives, regardless of how bullish the headlines feel. This forced contrarianism is what retail traders know they should do but rarely execute (Kahneman and Tversky, 1979).
Second, it's forward-looking in its inputs but backward-looking in its process. The strategy doesn't try to predict the next crisis or the next boom. It simply measures what volatility and returns have been recently, assumes the immediate future resembles the immediate past more than it resembles some forecast, and positions accordingly. This humility regarding prediction is perhaps the most institutional characteristic of all.
Third, and most critically, it treats the portfolio as a single organism. Retail traders typically view their holdings as separate positions, each requiring individual management. The institutional approach recognizes that what matters is not whether Position A made money, but whether the portfolio as a whole achieved its risk-adjusted return target. A position can lose money and still be a valuable contributor if it reduced portfolio volatility or provided diversification during stress periods.
THE MATHEMATICAL FOUNDATION: MEAN-VARIANCE OPTIMIZATION IN PRACTICE
At its core, the Efficiente 5 strategy solves a constrained optimization problem each month. In technical terms, this is a quadratic programming problem: maximize expected portfolio return subject to a volatility constraint and position limits. The objective function is straightforward: maximize the weighted sum of expected returns. The constraint is that the weighted sum of variances and covariances must not exceed the volatility target squared (Markowitz, 1959).
The challenge, and this is crucial for understanding the Pine Script implementation, is that solving this problem properly requires calculating a covariance matrix. This 13x13 matrix captures not just the volatility of each asset but the correlation between every pair of assets. Two assets might each have 15% volatility, but if they're negatively correlated, combining them reduces portfolio risk. If they're positively correlated, it doesn't. The covariance matrix encodes these relationships.
True mean-variance optimization requires matrix algebra and quadratic programming solvers. Pine Script, by design, lacks these capabilities. The language doesn't support matrix operations, and certainly doesn't include a QP solver. This creates a fundamental challenge: how do you implement an institutional strategy in a language not designed for institutional mathematics?
The solution implemented here uses a pragmatic approximation. Instead of solving the full covariance problem, the indicator calculates a Sharpe-like ratio for each asset (return divided by volatility) and uses these ratios to determine initial weights. It then applies the individual and asset-class constraints, renormalizes, and produces the final portfolio. This isn't mathematically equivalent to true mean-variance optimization, but it captures the essential spirit: weight assets according to their risk-adjusted return potential, subject to diversification constraints.
For retail implementation, this approximation is likely sufficient. The difference between a theoretically optimal portfolio and a very good approximation is typically modest, and the discipline of systematic rebalancing across asset classes matters far more than the precise weights. Perfect is the enemy of good, and a good approximation executed consistently will outperform a perfect solution that never gets implemented (Arnott et al., 2013).
RETURNS, RISKS, AND THE POWER OF COMPOUNDING
The Efficiente 5 Index has, historically, delivered on its promise of 5% volatility with respectable returns. While past performance never guarantees future results, the framework reveals why low-volatility strategies can be surprisingly powerful. Consider two portfolios: Portfolio A averages 12% returns with 20% volatility, while Portfolio B averages 8% returns with 5% volatility. Which performs better over time?
The arithmetic return favors Portfolio A, but compound returns tell a different story. Portfolio A will experience occasional 20-30% drawdowns. Portfolio B rarely draws down more than 10%. Over a twenty-year horizon, the geometric return (what you actually experience) for Portfolio B may match or exceed Portfolio A, simply because it never gives back massive gains. This is the power of volatility management that retail traders chronically underestimate (Bernstein, 1996).
Moreover, low volatility enables behavioral advantages. When your portfolio draws down 35%, as it might with a high-volatility approach, the psychological pressure to sell at the worst possible time becomes overwhelming. When your maximum drawdown is 12%, as might occur with the Efficiente 5 approach, staying the course is far easier. Behavioral finance research has consistently shown that investor returns lag fund returns primarily due to poor timing decisions driven by emotional responses to volatility (Dalbar, 2020).
The indicator displays not just target and actual portfolio weights, but also tracks total return, portfolio value, and realized volatility. This isn't just data. It's feedback. Retail traders can see, in real-time, whether their actual portfolio volatility matches their target, whether their risk-adjusted returns are improving, and whether their allocation discipline is holding. This transparency transforms abstract concepts into concrete metrics.
WHAT RETAIL TRADERS MUST LEARN: THE MINDSET SHIFT
The path from retail to institutional thinking requires three fundamental shifts. First, stop thinking in positions and start thinking in portfolios. Your question should never be "Should I buy this stock?" but rather "How does this position change my portfolio's expected return and volatility?" If you can't answer that question quantitatively, you're not ready to make the trade.
Second, embrace systematic rebalancing even when it feels wrong. Perhaps especially when it feels wrong. The Efficiente 5 strategy rebalances monthly regardless of market conditions. If equities have surged and now exceed their target weight, the strategy sells equities and buys bonds or alternatives. Every retail trader knows this is what you "should" do, but almost none actually do it. The institutional edge isn't in having better information. It's in having better discipline (Swensen, 2009).
Third, accept that volatility is not your friend. The retail mythology that "higher risk equals higher returns" is true on average across assets, but it's not true for implementation. A 15% return with 30% volatility will compound more slowly than a 12% return with 10% volatility due to the mathematics of return distributions. Institutions figured this out decades ago. Retail is still learning.
The Efficiente 5 replication indicator provides a bridge. It won't solve the problem of prediction no indicator can. But it solves the problem of allocation, which is arguably more important. By implementing institutional methodology in an accessible format, it allows retail traders to see what professional portfolio construction actually looks like, not in theory but in executable code. The the colorful lines that retail traders love to draw, don't disappear. They simply become less central to the process. The portfolio becomes central instead.
IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS AND PRACTICAL REALITY
Running this indicator on TradingView provides a dynamic view of how institutional allocation would evolve over time. The labels on each asset class line show current weights, updated continuously as prices change and rebalancing occurs. The dashboard displays the full allocation across all thirteen ETFs, showing both target weights (what the optimization suggests) and actual weights (what the portfolio currently holds after price movements).
Several key insights emerge from watching this process unfold. First, the strategy is not static. Weights change monthly as the optimization recalibrates to recent volatility and returns. What worked last month may not be optimal this month. Second, the strategy is not market-timing. It doesn't try to predict whether stocks will rise or fall. It simply measures recent behavior and positions accordingly. If volatility has risen, the strategy shifts toward defensive assets. If correlations have changed, the diversification benefits adjust.
Third, and perhaps most importantly for retail traders, the strategy demonstrates that sophistication and complexity are not synonyms. The Efficiente 5 methodology is sophisticated in its framework but simple in its execution. There are no exotic derivatives, no complex market-timing rules, no predictions of future scenarios. Just systematic optimization, monthly rebalancing, and discipline. This simplicity is a feature, not a bug.
The indicator also highlights limitations that retail traders must understand. The Pine Script implementation uses an approximation of true mean-variance optimization, as discussed earlier. Transaction costs are not modeled. Slippage is ignored. Tax implications are not considered. These simplifications mean the indicator is educational and analytical, not a fully operational trading system. For actual implementation, traders would need to account for these real-world factors.
Moreover, the strategy requires access to all thirteen ETFs and sufficient capital to hold meaningful positions in each. With 5% as the rounding increment, practical implementation probably requires at least $10,000 to avoid having positions that are too small to matter. The strategy is also explicitly designed for a 5% volatility target, which may be too conservative for younger investors with long time horizons or too aggressive for retirees living off their portfolio. The framework is adaptable, but adaptation requires understanding the trade-offs.
CAN RETAIL TRULY COMPETE WITH INSTITUTIONS?
The honest answer is nuanced. Retail traders will never have the same resources as institutions. They won't have Bloomberg terminals, proprietary research, or armies of analysts. But in portfolio construction, the resource gap matters less than the mindset gap. The mathematics of Markowitz are available to everyone. ETFs provide liquid, low-cost access to institutional-quality building blocks. Computing power is essentially free. The barriers are not technological or financial. They're conceptual.
If a retail trader understands why portfolios matter more than positions, why systematic discipline beats discretionary emotion, and why volatility management enables compounding, they can build portfolios that rival institutional allocation in their elegance and effectiveness. Not in their scale, not in their execution costs, but in their conceptual soundness. The Efficiente 5 framework proves this is possible.
What retail traders must recognize is that competing with institutions doesn't mean day-trading better than their algorithms. It means portfolio-building better than their average client. And that's achievable because most institutional clients, despite having access to the best managers, still make emotional decisions, chase performance, and abandon strategies at the worst possible times. The retail edge isn't in outsmarting professionals. It's in out-disciplining amateurs who happen to have more money.
The J.P. Morgan Efficiente 5 Index Replication indicator serves as both a tool and a teacher. As a tool, it provides a systematic framework for multi-asset allocation based on proven institutional methodology. As a teacher, it demonstrates daily what portfolio thinking actually looks like in practice. The colorful lines remain on the chart, but they're no longer the focus. The portfolio is the focus. The risk-adjusted return is the focus. The systematic discipline is the focus.
Stop painting lines. Start building portfolios. The institutions have been doing it for seventy years. It's time retail caught up.
REFERENCES
Arnott, R. D., Hsu, J., & Moore, P. (2013). Fundamental Indexation. Financial Analysts Journal, 61(2), 83-99.
Bernstein, W. J. (1996). The Intelligent Asset Allocator. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Dalbar, Inc. (2020). Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. Boston: Dalbar.
Damodaran, A. (2008). Strategic Risk Taking: A Framework for Risk Management. Upper Saddle River: Pearson Education.
Elton, E. J., Gruber, M. J., Brown, S. J., & Goetzmann, W. N. (2014). Modern Portfolio Theory and Investment Analysis (9th ed.). Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1993). Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds. Journal of Financial Economics, 33(1), 3-56.
Jorion, P. (1992). Portfolio optimization in practice. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(1), 68-74.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (2016). Guide to the Markets. New York: J.P. Morgan.
Jungle Rock. (2025). Institutional Asset Allocation meets the Efficient Frontier: Replicating the JPMorgan Efficiente 5 Strategy. Working Paper.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Markowitz, H. (1959). Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
Swensen, D. F. (2009). Pioneering Portfolio Management: An Unconventional Approach to Institutional Investment. New York: Free Press.
Gold and Bitcoin: The Evolution of Value!The Eternal Luster of Gold
In the dawn of time, when the earth was young and rivers whispered secrets to the stones, a wanderer named Elara found a gleam in the silt of a sun-kissed stream. It was pure gold, radiant like a captured star fallen from the heavens. She held it in her palm, feeling its warmth pulse like a heartbeat, and in that moment, humanity’s soul awakened to the allure of eternity.
As seasons turned to centuries, gold wove itself into the story of empires. In ancient Egypt, pharaohs crowned themselves with its glow, believing it to be the flesh of gods. It built pyramids that reached for the sky and tombs that guarded kings forever. Across the sands in Mesopotamia, merchants traded it for spices and silks, its weight a promise of power and trust.
Translation moment: Gold became the first universal symbol of value. People trusted it more than words or promises because it did not rust, fade, or vanish.
The Greeks saw in gold not only wealth but wisdom, the symbol of the sun’s eternal fire. Alexander the Great carried it across the continent, forging an empire of golden threads. Rome rose on its back, minting coins whose clink echoed through history.
Through the ages, gold endured the rush of California’s dreamers, the halls of Versailles, and the quiet vaults of modern fortunes. It has been both a curse and a blessing, the fuel of wars and the gift of love, whispering of beauty’s fragility and the human desire for something that lasts beyond the grave. In its shine, we see ourselves fragile yet forever chasing light.
The Digital Dawn of Bitcoin
Centuries later, under the glow of computer screens, a visionary named Satoshi dreamed of a new gold born not from the earth but from the ether of ideas. Bitcoin appeared in 2009 amid a world weary of banks and broken trust.
Like gold’s ancient gleam, Bitcoin was mined not with picks but with puzzles solved by machines. It promised freedom, a currency without kings, flowing from person to person, unbound by borders or empires.
Translation moment: Bitcoin works like digital gold. Instead of digging the ground, miners use computers to solve problems and unlock new coins. No one controls it, and that is what makes it powerful.
Through doubt and frenzy, it rose as a beacon for those seeking sovereignty in a digital world. Its volatility became its soul, a reminder that true value is built on belief. Bitcoin speaks to ingenuity and rebellion, a star of code guiding us toward a future where wealth is weightless yet profoundly honest.
Gold’s Cycles: Echoes of War and Crisis
In the early 20th century, gold was held under fixed prices until the Great Depression of 1929 shattered these illusions. The 1934 dollar devaluation lifted it from 20.67 to 35, restoring faith amid despair. When World War II erupted in 1939, gold’s role as a refuge was muted by controls, yet it quietly held its place as the world’s silent guardian.
The 1970s awakened its wild spirit. The Nixon Shock of 1971 freed gold from 35, sparking a bull run during the 1973 Oil Crisis. The 1979 Iranian Revolution led to a 1980 peak of 850, a leap of more than 2,000 percent, as investors sought safety from the chaos.
Translation moment: When fear rises, people rush to gold. Every major war or economic crisis has sent gold upward because it feels safe when paper money loses trust.
The 1987 stock crash caused brief dips, but the 1990 Gulf War reignited its glow. Around 2000, after the Dot-com Bust, gold found new life, climbing from $ 270 to over $1,900 during the 2008 Financial Crisis. It dipped to 1050 in 2015, then surged again past 2000 during the 2020 pandemic.
The 2022 Ukraine War added another chapter with prices climbing above 2700 by 2025. Across a century of crises, gold has risen whenever fear tested humanity’s resolve, teaching patience and fortitude through its quiet endurance.
Bitcoin’s Cycles: Echoes of Innovation and Crisis
Born from the ashes of the 2008 Financial Crisis, Bitcoin began its story at mere cents. It traded below $1 until 2011, when it reached $30 before crashing by 90 percent following the MTGOX collapse.
In 2013, it soared to 1242 only to fall again to 200 in 2015 as regulations tightened. The 2017 bull run lifted it to nearly 20000 before another long winter brought it to 3200 in 2018. Each fall taught resilience, each rise renewed belief.
During the 2020 pandemic, it fell below 5000 before rallying to 69000 in 2021. The Ukraine War and the FTX collapse of 2022 brought it down to 16000, but also proved its role in humanitarian aid. By 2024, the halving and ETF approvals helped it break 100000, marking Bitcoin’s rise as digital gold.
Translation moment: Bitcoin’s rhythm follows four-year halving cycles when mining rewards are cut in half. This keeps supply limited, which often triggers new bull runs as demand returns.
Every four years, it's halving cycles 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, fueling new waves of adoption and correction. Bitcoin grows strongest in times of uncertainty, echoing humanity’s drive to evolve beyond limits.
The Harmony of Gold and Bitcoin Modern Parallels
In today’s markets, gold’s ancient glow meets Bitcoin’s electric pulse. As of October 17, 2025, their correlation stands near 0.85, close to its historic high of 0.9. Both rise as guardians against inflation and the erosion of trust in the dollar.
Gold trades near 4310 per ounce a record high while Bitcoin hovers around 104700 showing brief fractures in their unity. Gold offers the comfort of touch while Bitcoin provides the thrill of code. Together, they reflect fear and hope, the twin emotions that drive every market.
Translation moment: A correlation of 0.85 means they often move in the same direction. When fear or inflation rises, both gold and Bitcoin tend to rise in tandem.
Analysts warn of bubbles in stocks, gold, and crypto, yet optimism remains for Bitcoin’s growth through 2026, while gold holds its defensive strength.
Gold carries risks of storage cost and theft, but steadiness in chaos. Bitcoin carries volatility and regulatory challenges, but it also offers unmatched innovation and reach. One is the anchor, the other the dream, and both reward those who hold conviction through uncertainty.
Epilogue: The Timeless Balance
Gold and Bitcoin form a bridge between the ancient and the future. Gold, the earth’s eternal treasure, stands as a symbol of stability and truth. Bitcoin, the digital heir, shines with the spark of innovation and freedom.
Experts view gold as the ultimate inflation hedge, forged in fire and tested over centuries. They see Bitcoin as its digital counterpart, scarce by code and limitless in reach.
Gold’s weight grounds us in reality while Bitcoin’s light expands our imagination. In 2025, as gold surpasses $4,346 and Bitcoin hovers near $105,000, the wise investor sees not rivals but reflections.
Translation moment: Gold reminds us to protect what we have. Bitcoin reminds us to dream of what could be. Together, they balance caution and courage, the two forces every generation must master.
One whispers of legacy, the other of evolution, yet together they tell humanity’s oldest story, our unending quest to preserve value against time and to chase the light that never fades.
🙏 I ask (Allah) for guidance and success. 🤲
QUANTUM MOMENTUMOverview
Quantum Momentum is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to help traders identify relative strength between assets through advanced momentum comparison. This cyberpunk-themed indicator visualizes momentum dynamics between your current trading symbol and any comparison asset of your choice, making it ideal for pairs trading, crypto correlation analysis, and multi-asset portfolio management.
Key Features
📊 Multi-Asset Momentum Comparison
Dual Symbol Analysis: Compare momentum between your chart symbol and any other tradable asset
Real-Time Tracking: Monitor relative momentum strength as market conditions evolve
Difference Visualization: Clear histogram display showing which asset has stronger momentum
🎯 Multiple Momentum Calculation Methods
Choose from four different momentum calculation types:
ROC (Rate of Change): Traditional percentage-based momentum measurement
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Oscillator-based momentum from 0-100 range
Percent Change: Simple percentage change over the lookback period
Raw Change: Absolute price change in native currency units
📈 Advanced Trend Filtering System
Enable optional trend filters to align momentum signals with prevailing market direction:
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Classic trend identification
EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Responsive trend detection
Price Action: Identifies trends through higher highs/lows or lower highs/lows patterns
ADX (Average Directional Index): Measures trend strength with customizable threshold
🎨 Futuristic Cyberpunk Design
Neon Color Scheme: Eye-catching cyan, magenta, and matrix green color palette
Glowing Visual Effects: Enhanced visibility with luminescent plot lines
Dynamic Background Shading: Subtle trend state visualization
Real-Time Data Table: Sleek information panel displaying current momentum values and trend status
How It Works
The indicator calculates momentum for both your current chart symbol and a comparison symbol (default: BTC/USDT) using your selected method and lookback period. The difference between these momentum values reveals which asset is exhibiting stronger momentum at any given time.
Positive Difference (Green): Your chart symbol has stronger momentum than the comparison asset
Negative Difference (Pink/Red): The comparison asset has stronger momentum than your chart symbol
When the trend filter is enabled, the indicator will only display signals that align with the detected market trend, helping filter out counter-trend noise.
Settings Guide
Symbol Settings
Compare Symbol: Choose any tradable asset to compare against (e.g., major indices, cryptocurrencies, forex pairs)
Momentum Settings
Momentum Length: Lookback period for momentum calculations (default: 14 bars)
Momentum Type: Select your preferred momentum calculation method
Display Options
Toggle visibility of current symbol momentum line
Toggle visibility of comparison symbol momentum line
Toggle visibility of momentum difference histogram
Optional zero line reference
Trend Filter Settings
Use Trend Filter: Enable/disable trend-based signal filtering
Trend Method: Choose from SMA, EMA, Price Action, or ADX
Trend Length: Period for trend calculations (default: 50)
ADX Threshold: Minimum ADX value to confirm trend strength (default: 25)
Best Use Cases
✅ Pairs Trading: Identify divergences in momentum between correlated assets
✅ Crypto Market Analysis: Compare altcoin momentum against Bitcoin or Ethereum
✅ Stock Market Rotation: Track sector or index relative strength
✅ Forex Strength Analysis: Monitor currency pair momentum relationships
✅ Multi-Timeframe Confirmation: Use alongside other indicators for confluence
✅ Mean Reversion Strategies: Spot extreme momentum divergences for potential reversals
Visual Indicators
⚡ Cyan Line: Your chart symbol's momentum
⚡ Magenta Line: Comparison symbol's momentum
📊 Green/Pink Histogram: Momentum difference (positive = green, negative = pink)
▲ Green Triangle: Bullish trend detected (when filter enabled)
▼ Red Triangle: Bearish trend detected (when filter enabled)
◈ Yellow Diamond: Neutral/sideways trend (when filter enabled)
Pro Tips
💡 Look for crossovers between the momentum lines as potential trade signals
💡 Combine with volume analysis for stronger confirmation
💡 Use momentum divergence (price making new highs/lows while momentum doesn't) for reversal signals
💡 Enable trend filter during ranging markets to reduce false signals
💡 Experiment with different momentum types to find what works best for your trading style
Technical Requirements
TradingView Pine Script Version: v6
Chart Type: Works on all chart types
Indicator Placement: Separate pane (overlay=false)
Data Requirements: Needs access to comparison symbol data
Breakdown or Buyable Dip? Pullback Depth Can HelpAs a common adage says, “the market doesn’t move in a straight line.” But when prices have fallen, it’s not always clear whether buying makes sense. That’s where today’s script may help.
Most traditional indicators judge movement based on price. That’s obviously important, but time can also be helpful. After all, there’s a big difference between probing a low from 2-3 weeks ago versus a low from months or even years in the past.
Pullback Depth clearly illustrates this by answering the question: “Today’s low is the lowest in how many bars?”
The resulting integer is plotted in a simple histogram. Values are always negative because bars with higher absolute values (meaning more negative, or further below zero) are potentially more bearish.
The study also has a maximum lookback period to avoid overwhelming the study with too many bars. Its default setting of 125 bars includes enough history to illustrate the trend.
The stock market’s recent run has seen only shallow pullbacks. Most dips have probed 1-2 weeks in the past, while Friday’s selloff only turned back the clock a month.
Consider two other previous moments.
First, the great bull run of 1995 saw only shallow pullbacks. (None exceeded 50 days.):
In contrast, early 2022 saw the S&P 500 test levels more than 100 candles into the past. It soon fell into an official “bear market:”
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Bull-Bear EfficiencyBull-Bear Efficiency
This indicator measures the directional efficiency of price movement across many historical entry points to estimate overall market bias. It is designed as a trend gauge rather than a timing signal.
Concept
For each historical bar (tau) and a chosen lookahead horizon (h), the script evaluates how efficiently price has traveled from that starting point to the endpoint. Efficiency is defined as the net price change divided by the total absolute movement that occurred along the path.
Formula:
E(tau,h) = ( Price - Price ) / ( Sum from i = tau+1 to tau+h of | Price - Price | )
This measures how "straight" the path was from the entry to the current bar:
If price moved steadily upward, the numerator and denominator are nearly equal, and E approaches +1 (efficient bullish trend).
If price moved steadily downward, E approaches -1 (efficient bearish trend).
If price chopped back and forth, the denominator grows faster than the numerator, and E approaches 0 (inefficient movement).
The algorithm computes this efficiency for many past starting points and multiple horizons, optionally normalizing by ATR to account for volatility. The efficiencies are then weighted by recency to emphasize more recent behavior.
From this, the script derives:
Bull = weighted average of positive efficiencies
Bear = weighted average of negative efficiencies (absolute value)
Net = Bull - Bear (net directional efficiency)
Interpretation
Bull, Bear, and Net quantify how coherently the market has been trending.
Bull near 1.0, Bear near 0.0, Net > 0 -> clean upward trends; long positions have been more efficient.
Bear near 1.0, Bull near 0.0, Net < 0 -> clean downward trends; short positions have been more efficient.
Bull and Bear both small or similar -> low-efficiency, range-bound environment.
Net therefore acts as a "trend coherence index" that measures whether price action is directionally organized or noisy.
Practical Use
Trend filter:
Apply trend-following systems only when Net is strongly positive or negative.
Avoid them when Net is near zero.
Regime change detection:
Crossings through zero often correspond to transitions between trending and ranging regimes.
Momentum loss detection:
If price makes new highs but Net or Bull weakens, it suggests trend exhaustion.
Settings Overview
Lookback: Number of historical bars considered as entry points (tau values).
Horizons: List of forward projection lengths (in bars) for measuring efficiency.
Recency Decay (lambda): Exponential weighting that emphasizes recent data.
Normalize by ATR: Adjusts "effort" to account for volatility changes.
Display Options: Toggle Bull, Bear, Net, or Signed Average (S). Customize line colors.
Notes
This indicator does not produce entry or exit signals.
It is a statistical tool that measures how efficiently price has trended over time.
High Net values indicate smooth, coherent trends.
Low or neutral Net values indicate noisy, directionless conditions.
Performance-based Asset Weighting(MTF)**Performance-Based Asset Weighting (MTF/Symbol Free Setting)**
#### Overview
This indicator is a tool that visualizes the relative strength of performance (price change rate) as “weight (allocation ratio)” for **four user-defined stocks**.
By setting any specified past point in time as the baseline (where all symbols are equally weighted at 25%), it aims to provide an intuitive understanding of which symbols outperformed others and attracted capital, or underperformed and saw capital outflows.
**【Default Settings and Application Scenario: Pension Fund Rebalancing Analysis】**
The default settings reference the basic portfolio of Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF), configuring four major asset classes: domestic equities, foreign equities, domestic bonds, and foreign bonds. It is known that when market fluctuations cause deviations from this equal-weighted ratio, rebalancing occurs to restore the original ratio (selling assets whose weight has increased and buying assets whose weight has decreased).
Analyzing using this default setting can serve as a reference point for considering **“whether rebalancing sales (or purchases) by pension funds and similar entities are likely to occur in the future.”**
**【Important: Usage Notes】**
The weights shown by this indicator are **theoretical reference values** calculated solely based on performance from the specified start date. Even if large investors conduct significant rebalancing (asset buying/selling) during the period, those transactions themselves are not reflected in this chart's calculations.
Therefore, please understand that the actual portfolio ratios may differ. **Use this solely as a rough guideline. **
#### Key Features
* **Freely configure the 4 assets for analysis:** You can freely set any 4 assets (stocks, indices, currencies, cryptocurrencies, etc.) you wish to compare via the settings screen.
* **Performance-based weight calculation:** Rather than simple price composition ratios, it calculates each asset's price change since the specified start date as a “performance index” and displays each asset's proportion of the total sum.
* **Freely set analysis start date:** You can set any desired starting point for analysis, such as “after the XX shock” or “after earnings announcements,” using the calendar.
* **Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Support:** Independently of the timeframe displayed on the chart, you can freely select the timeframe (e.g., 1-hour, 4-hour, daily) used by the indicator for calculations.
#### Calculation Principle
This indicator calculates weights in the following three steps:
1. **Obtaining the Base Price**
Obtain the closing price for each of the four stocks on the user-set “Start Date for Weight Calculation.” This becomes the **base price** for analysis.
2. **Calculating the Performance Index**
Divide the current price of each stock by the **base price** obtained in Step 1 to calculate the “Performance Index”.
`Performance Index = Current Price ÷ Base Date Price`
This quantifies how many times the current performance has increased compared to the base date performance, which is set to “1”.
3. **Calculating Weights**
Sum the “Performance Indexes” of the four stocks. Then, calculate the percentage contribution of each stock's Performance Index to this total sum and plot it on the chart.
`Weight (%) = (Individual Performance Index ÷ Total Performance Index of 4 Stocks) × 100`
Using this logic, on the analysis start date, all stocks' performance indices are set to “1”, so the weights start equally at 25%.
#### Usage
* **Application Example 1: Market Sentiment Analysis (Using Default Settings)**
Analyze using the default asset classes. By observing the relative strength between “Equities” and “Bonds”, you can assess whether the market is risk-on or risk-off.
* **Application Example 2: Sector/Theme Strength Analysis**
Configure settings for groups like “Top 4 semiconductor stocks” or “4 GAFAM stocks.” Setting the start date to the beginning of the year or earnings season allows you to instantly compare which stocks within the same sector are performing best.
* **Application Example 3: Cryptocurrency Power Map Analysis**
By setting major cryptocurrencies like “BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA,” you can analyze which currencies are attracting market capital.
**【About Legend Display】**
Due to Pine Script specification constraints, the legend on the chart will display fixed names: **“Stock 1” to “Stock 4”. **
Please note that the symbol you entered for “Symbol 1” in the settings corresponds to the “Symbol 1” line on the chart.
#### Settings
* **Symbol 1 to Symbol 4:** Set the four symbols you wish to analyze.
* **Timeframe for Calculation:** Select the timeframe the indicator references when calculating weights.
* **Start Date for Weight Calculation:** This serves as the base date for comparing performance.
#### Disclaimer
This script is solely a tool to assist with market analysis and does not recommend buying or selling any specific financial instruments. Please make all final investment decisions at your own discretion.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
**Performance-based Asset Weighting（MTF・シンボル自由設定）**
#### 概要
このインジケーターは、**ユーザーが自由に設定した4つの銘柄**について、パフォーマンス（騰落率）の相対的な強さを「ウェイト（構成比率）」として可視化するツールです。
指定した過去の任意の時点を基準（全銘柄が均等な25%）として、そこからどの銘柄のパフォーマンスが他の銘柄を上回り、資金が向かっているのか、あるいは下回っているのかを直感的に把握することを目的としています。
**【デフォルト設定と活用シナリオ：年金基金のリバランス考察】**
デフォルト設定では、日本の年金積立金管理運用独立行政法人（GPIF）の基本ポートフォリオを参考に、主要4資産クラス（国内株式, 外国株式, 国内債券, 外国債券）が設定されています。市場の変動によってこの均等な比率に乖離が生じると、元の比率に戻すためのリバランス（比率が増えた資産を売り、減った資産を買う）が行われることが知られています。
このデフォルト設定で分析することで、**「今後、年金基金などによるリバランスの売り（買い）が発生する可能性があるか」を考察するための、一つの目安として利用できます。**
**【重要：利用上の注意点】**
このインジケーターが示すウェイトは、あくまで指定した開始日からのパフォーマンスのみを基に算出した**理論上の参考値**です。実際に大口投資家などが途中で大規模なリバランス（資産の売買）を行ったとしても、その取引自体はこのチャートの計算には反映されません。
そのため、実際のポートフォリオ比率とは異なる可能性があることをご理解の上、**あくまで大まかな目安としてご活用ください。**
#### 主な特徴
* **分析対象の4銘柄を自由に設定可能:** 設定画面から、比較したい4つの銘柄（株式、指数、為替、仮想通貨など）を自由に設定できます。
* **パフォーマンス基準のウェイト計算:** 単純な価格の構成比ではなく、指定した開始日からの各銘柄の騰落を「パフォーマンス指数」として算出し、その合計に占める各銘柄の割合を表示します。
* **分析開始日の自由な設定:** 「〇〇ショック後」「決算発表後」など、分析したい任意の時点をカレンダーから設定できます。
* **マルチタイムフレーム（MTF）対応:** チャートに表示している時間足とは別に、インジケーターが計算に使う時間足（1時間足、4時間足、日足など）を自由に選択できます。
#### 計算の原理
このインジケーターは、以下の3ステップでウェイトを算出しています。
1. **基準価格の取得**
ユーザーが設定した「ウェイト計算の開始日」における、4つの各銘柄の終値を取得し、これを分析の**基準価格**とします。
2. **パフォーマンス指数の算出**
現在の各銘柄の価格を、ステップ1で取得した**基準価格**で割ることで、「パフォーマンス指数」を算出します。
`パフォーマンス指数 = 現在の価格 ÷ 基準日の価格`
これにより、基準日のパフォーマンスを「1」とした場合、現在のパフォーマンスが何倍になっているかが数値化されます。
3. **ウェイトの算出**
4つの銘柄の「パフォーマンス指数」の合計値を算出します。そして、合計値に占める各銘柄のパフォーマンス指数の割合（%）を計算し、チャートに描画します。
`ウェイト (%) = (個別のパフォーマンス指数 ÷ 4銘柄のパフォーマンス指数の合計) × 100`
このロジックにより、分析開始日には全銘柄のパフォーマンス指数が「1」となるため、ウェイトは均等に25%からスタートします。
#### 使用方法
* **応用例1：市場のセンチメント分析（デフォルト設定利用）**
デフォルト設定の資産クラスで分析し、「株式」と「債券」の力関係を見ることで、市場がリスクオンなのかリスクオフなのかを判断する材料になります。
* **応用例2：セクター・テーマ別の強弱分析**
設定画面で、例えば「半導体関連の主要4銘柄」や「GAFAMの4銘柄」などを設定します。開始日を年初や決算時期に設定することで、同セクター内でどの銘柄が最もパフォーマンスが良いかを一目で比較できます。
* **応用例3：仮想通貨の勢力図分析**
「BTC, ETH, SOL, ADA」など、主要な仮想通貨を設定することで、市場の資金がどの通貨に向かっているのかを分析できます。
**【凡例の表示について】**
Pine Scriptの仕様上の制約により、チャート上の凡例は**「銘柄1」〜「銘柄4」という固定名で表示されます。**
お手数ですが、設定画面でご自身が「銘柄1」に入力したシンボルが、チャート上の「銘柄1」のラインに対応する、という形でご覧ください。
#### 設定項目
* **銘柄1〜銘柄4:** 分析したい4つのシンボルをそれぞれ設定します。
* **計算に使う時間足:** インジケーターがウェイトを計算する際に参照する時間足を選択します。
* **ウェイト計算の開始日:** パフォーマンスを比較する上での基準日となります。
#### 免責事項
このスクリプトはあくまで市場分析を補助するためのツールであり、特定の金融商品の売買を推奨するものではありません。投資の最終的な判断は、ご自身の責任において行ってください。
VWAP / ORB / VP & POCThis is an all-in-one technical analysis tool designed to give you a comprehensive view of the market on a single chart. It combines three powerful indicators—VWAP, Opening Range, and Volume Profile—to help you identify key price levels, understand intraday trends, and spot areas of high liquidity.
What It Does
The indicator plots three distinct components on your chart:
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): A benchmark that shows the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both price and volume. It's often used by institutional traders to gauge whether they are getting a good price. The script also plots standard deviation or percentage-based bands around the VWAP line, which can act as dynamic support and resistance.
Opening Range Breakout (ORB): A tool that highlights the high and low of the initial trading period of a session (e.g., the first 15 minutes). The script draws lines for the opening price, range high, and range low for the rest of the session. It also colors the chart with zones to visually separate price action above, below, and within this critical opening range.
Volume Profile (VP): A powerful study that shows trading activity over a set number of bars at specific price levels. Unlike traditional volume that is plotted over time, this is plotted on the price axis. It helps you instantly see where the most and least trading has occurred, identifying significant levels like the Point of Control (POC)—the single price with the most volume—and the Value Area (VA), where the majority of trading took place.
How to Use It for Trading
The real strength of this indicator comes from finding confluence, where two or more of its components signal the same key level.
Identifying Support & Resistance: The POC, VWAP bands, Opening Range high/low, and session open price are all powerful levels to watch. When price approaches one of these levels, you can anticipate a potential reaction (a bounce or a breakout).
Gauging Intraday Trend: A simple rule of thumb is to consider the intraday trend bullish when the price is trading above the VWAP and bearish when it is trading below the VWAP.
Finding High-Value Zones: The Volume Profile’s Value Area (VA) shows you where the market has accepted a price. Trading within the VA is considered "fair value," while prices outside of it are "unfair." Reversals often happen when the price tries to re-enter the Value Area from the outside.
Settings:
Here’s a breakdown of all the settings you can change to customize the indicator to your liking.
Volume Profile Settings:
Number of Bars: How many of the most recent bars to use for the calculation. A higher number gives a broader profile.
Row Size: The number of price levels (rows) in the profile. Higher numbers give a more detailed, granular view.
Value Area Volume %: The percentage of total volume to include in the Value Area (standard is 70%).
Horizontal Offset: Moves the Volume Profile further to the right to avoid overlapping with recent price action.
Colors & Styles: Customize the colors for the POC line, Value Area, and the up/down volume bars.
VWAP Settings:
Anchor Period: Resets the VWAP calculation at the start of a new Session, Week, Month, Year, etc. You can even anchor it to corporate events like Earnings or Splits.
Source: The price source used in the calculation (default is hlc3, the average of the high, low, and close).
Bands Calculation Mode:
Standard Deviation: The bands are based on statistical volatility.
Percentage: The bands are a fixed percentage away from the VWAP line.
Bands Multiplier: Sets the distance of the bands from the VWAP. You can enable and configure up to three sets of bands.
ORB Settings (Opening Range)
Opening Range Timeframe: The duration of the opening range (e.g., 15 for 15 minutes, 60 for the first hour).
Market Session & Time Zone: Crucial for ensuring the range is calculated at the correct time for the asset you're trading.
Line & Zone Styles: Full customization for the colors, thickness, and style (Solid, Dashed, Dotted) of the High, Low, and Opening Price lines, as well as the background colors for the zones above, below, and within the range.
Order Block Volumatic FVG StrategyInspired by: Volumatic Fair Value Gaps —
License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (Creative Commons Attribution–NonCommercial–ShareAlike).
This script is a non-commercial derivative work that credits the original author and keeps the same license.
What this strategy does
This turns BigBeluga’s visual FVG concept into an entry/exit strategy. It scans bullish and bearish FVG boxes, measures how deep price has mitigated into a box (as a percentage), and opens a long/short when your mitigation threshold and filters are satisfied. Risk is managed with a fixed Stop Loss % and a Trailing Stop that activates only after a user-defined profit trigger.
Additions vs. the original indicator
✅ Strategy entries based on % mitigation into FVGs (long/short).
✅ Lower-TF volume split using upticks/downticks; fallback if LTF data is missing (distributes prior bar volume by close’s position in its H–L range) to avoid NaN/0.
✅ Per-FVG total volume filter (min/max) so you can skip weak boxes.
✅ Age filter (min bars since the FVG was created) to avoid fresh/immature boxes.
✅ Bull% / Bear% share filter (the 46%/53% numbers you see inside each FVG).
✅ Optional candle confirmation and cooldown between trades.
✅ Risk management: fixed SL % + Trailing Stop with a profit trigger (doesn’t trail until your trigger is reached).
✅ Pine v6 safety: no unsupported args, no indexof/clamp/when, reverse-index deletes, guards against zero/NaN.
How a trade is decided (logic overview)
Detect FVGs (same rules as the original visual logic).
For each FVG currently intersected by the bar, compute:
Mitigation % (how deep price has entered the box).
Bull%/Bear% split (internal volume share).
Total volume (printed on the box) from LTF aggregation or fallback.
Age (bars) since the box was created.
Apply your filters:
Mitigation ≥ Long/Short threshold.
Volume between your min and max (if enabled).
Age ≥ min bars (if enabled).
Bull% / Bear% within your limits (if enabled).
(Optional) the current candle must be in trade direction (confirm).
If multiple FVGs qualify on the same bar, the strategy uses the most recent one.
Enter long/short (no pyramiding).
Exit with:
Fixed Stop Loss %, and
Trailing Stop that only starts after price reaches your profit trigger %.
Input settings (quick guide)
Mitigation source: close or high/low. Use high/low for intrabar touches; close is stricter.
Mitigation % thresholds: minimal mitigation for Long and Short.
TOTAL Volume filter: skip FVGs with too little/too much total volume (per box).
Bull/Bear share filter: require, e.g., Long only if Bull% ≥ 50; avoid Short when Bull% is high (Short Bull% max).
Age filter (bars): e.g., ≥ 20–30 bars to avoid fresh boxes.
Confirm candle: require candle direction to match the trade.
Cooldown (bars): minimum bars between entries.
Risk:
Stop Loss % (fixed from entry price).
Activate trailing at +% profit (the trigger).
Trailing distance % (the trailing gap once active).
Lower-TF aggregation:
Auto: TF/Divisor → picks 1/3/5m automatically.
Fixed: choose 1/3/5/15m explicitly.
If LTF can’t be fetched, fallback allocates prior bar’s volume by its close position in the bar’s H–L.
Suggested starting presets (you should optimize per market)
Mitigation: 60–80% for both Long/Short.
Bull/Bear share:
Long: Bull% ≥ 50–70, Bear% ≤ 100.
Short: Bull% ≤ 60 (avoid shorting into strong support), Bear% ≥ 0–70 as you prefer.
Age: ≥ 20–30 bars.
Volume: pick a min that filters noise for your symbol/timeframe.
Risk: SL 4–6%, trailing trigger 1–2%, distance 1–2% (crypto example).
Set slippage/fees in Strategy Properties.
Notes, limitations & best practices
Data differences: The LTF split uses request.security_lower_tf. If the exchange/data feed has sparse LTF data, the fallback kicks in (it’s deliberate to avoid NaNs but is a heuristic).
Real-time vs backtest: The current bar can update until close; results on historical bars use closed data. Use “Bar Replay” to understand intrabar effects.
No pyramiding: Only one position at a time. Modify pyramiding in the header if you need scaling.
Assets: For spot/crypto, TradingView “volume” is exchange volume; in some markets it may be tick volume—interpret filters accordingly.
Risk disclosure: Past performance ≠ future results. Use appropriate position sizing and risk controls; this is not financial advice.
Credits
Visual FVG concept and original implementation: BigBeluga.
This derivative strategy adds entry/exit logic, volume/age/share filters, robust LTF handling, and risk management while preserving the original spirit.
License remains CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 (non-commercial, attribution required, share-alike).
Daily/Weekly Wick (Shadow) Range📈 Detailed Guide to the Daily/Weekly Wick (Shadow) Range Indicator
This indicator is a powerful visualization tool designed to map the key price levels established during the previous trading period (either the previous day or the previous week). Instead of just showing a single line for the high and low, it highlights the entire range of the upper and lower wicks (shadows), representing the "battleground" where buyers and sellers were most active.
How It Works
The Wick (Shadow) Range indicator fetches the Open, High, Low, and Close data from the last completed daily or weekly candle and projects those levels onto your current chart. This creates two distinct colored zones.
Upper Wick (Green Zone): This area spans from the Previous High down to the top of the Previous Candle's Body. It visually represents the territory where sellers successfully pushed the price down from its peak. This entire zone can be considered a resistance area.
Lower Wick (Red Zone): This area spans from the bottom of the Previous Candle's Body down to the Previous Low. It shows where buyers stepped in to defend a price level and push it back up. This entire zone can be considered a support area.
How to Use It in Your Trading
This indicator isn't meant to give direct buy or sell signals on its own. Instead, it provides crucial context about market structure. Here are several ways to incorporate it into your strategy:
1. Identifying Key Support & Resistance
This is the indicator's primary function. The most significant levels are:
Key Resistance: The top edge of the green zone (the previous period's high).
Key Support: The bottom edge of the red zone (the previous period's low).
Look for the current price to react when it approaches these boundaries. These are high-probability areas for price to pause or reverse.
2. Watching for Price Rejection (Reversal Trading)
The colored zones are perfect for spotting rejection signals.
Bearish Rejection 📉: If the current price enters the green zone but fails to stay there, closing back below it (often forming a new wick), it's a strong sign that sellers are still in control at that level. This can be an excellent entry signal for a short position.
Bullish Rejection 📈: If the current price dips into the red zone and is quickly bought back up, it shows that buyers are actively defending that area. This can be a great entry signal for a long position.
3. Confirming Breakouts (Trend Trading)
The zones also help validate breakouts.
Bullish Breakout: If the price pushes decisively through the entire green zone and closes above the previous high, it signals that the previous resistance has been broken and the trend may continue upward.
Bearish Breakdown: If the price falls decisively through the entire red zone and closes below the previous low, it confirms that support has failed and the price may continue downward.
4. Setting Context with Timeframes
Weekly Setting: Use the "Weekly" option to identify major, significant support and resistance levels that can influence the market for the entire week. These are powerful levels for swing trading.
Daily Setting: Use the "Daily" option for intraday trading. The previous day's high and low are critical pivot points that many day traders watch.
⚙️ Indicator Settings
The indicator has one simple setting, which you can access by clicking the gear icon ⚙️ next to its name on the chart.
Select Wick Timeframe: This dropdown menu allows you to switch the indicator's calculation between the Daily and Weekly timeframe instantly.
Quantile Regression Bands [BackQuant]Quantile Regression Bands
Tail-aware trend channeling built from quantiles of real errors, not just standard deviations.
What it does
This indicator fits a simple linear trend over a rolling lookback and then measures how price has actually deviated from that trend during the window. It then places two pairs of bands at user-chosen quantiles of those deviations (inner and outer). Because bands are based on empirical quantiles rather than a symmetric standard deviation, they adapt to skewed and fat-tailed behaviour and often hug price better in trending or asymmetric markets.
Why “quantile” bands instead of Bollinger-style bands?
Bollinger Bands assume a (roughly) symmetric spread around the mean; quantiles don’t—upper and lower bands can sit at different distances if the error distribution is skewed.
Quantiles are robust to outliers; a single shock won’t inflate the bands for many bars.
You can choose tails precisely (e.g., 1%/99% or 5%/95%) to match your risk appetite.
How it works (intuitive)
Center line — a rolling linear regression approximates the local trend.
Residuals — for each bar in the lookback, the indicator looks at the gap between actual price and where the line “expected” price to be.
Quantiles — those gaps are sorted; you select which percentiles become your inner/outer offsets.
Bands — the chosen quantile offsets are added to the current end of the regression line to draw parallel support/resistance rails.
Smoothing — a light EMA can be applied to reduce jitter in the line and bands.
What you see
Center (linear regression) line (optional).
Inner quantile bands (e.g., 25th/75th) with optional translucent fill.
Outer quantile bands (e.g., 1st/99th) with a multi-step gradient to visualise “tail zones.”
Optional bar coloring: bars trend-colored by whether price is rising above or falling below the center line.
Alerts when price crosses the outer bands (upper or lower).
How to read it
Trend & drift — the slope of the center line is your local trend. Persistent closes on the same side of the center line indicate directional drift.
Pullbacks — tags of the inner band often mark routine pullbacks within trend. Reaction back to the center line can be used for continuation entries/partials.
Tails & squeezes — outer-band touches highlight statistically rare excursions for the chosen window. Frequent outer-band activity can signal regime change or volatility expansion.
Asymmetry — if the upper band sits much further from the center than the lower (or vice versa), recent behaviour has been skewed. Trade management can be adjusted accordingly (e.g., wider take-profit upslope than downslope).
A simple trend interpretation can be derived from the bar colouring
Good use-cases
Volatility-aware mean reversion — fade moves into outer bands back toward the center when trend is flat.
Trend participation — buy pullbacks to the inner band above a rising center; flip logic for shorts below a falling center.
Risk framing — set dynamic stops/targets at quantile rails so position sizing respects recent tail behaviour rather than fixed ticks.
Inputs (quick guide)
Source — price input used for the fit (default: close).
Lookback Length — bars in the regression window and residual sample. Longer = smoother, slower bands; shorter = tighter, more reactive.
Inner/Outer Quantiles (τ) — choose your “typical” vs “tail” levels (e.g., 0.25/0.75 inner, 0.01/0.99 outer).
Show toggles — independently toggle center line, inner bands, outer bands, and their fills.
Colors & transparency — customize band and fill appearance; gradient shading highlights the tail zone.
Band Smoothing Length — small EMA on lines to reduce stair-step artefacts without meaningfully changing levels.
Bar Coloring — optional trend tint from the center line’s momentum.
Practical settings
Swing trading — Length 75–150; inner τ = 0.25/0.75, outer τ = 0.05/0.95.
Intraday — Length 50–100 for liquid futures/FX; consider 0.20/0.80 inner and 0.02/0.98 outer in high-vol assets.
Crypto — Because of fat tails, try slightly wider outers (0.01/0.99) and keep smoothing at 2–4 to tame weekend jumps.
Signal ideas
Continuation — in an uptrend, look for pullback into the lower inner band with a close back above the center as a timing cue.
Exhaustion probe — in ranges, first touch of an outer band followed by a rejection candle back inside the inner band often precedes mean-reversion swings.
Regime shift — repeated closes beyond an outer band or a sharp re-tilt in the center line can mark a new trend phase; adjust tactics (stop-following along the opposite inner band).
Alerts included
“Price Crosses Upper Outer Band” — potential overextension or breakout risk.
“Price Crosses Lower Outer Band” — potential capitulation or breakdown risk.
Notes
The fit and quantiles are computed on a fixed rolling window and do not repaint; bands update as the window moves forward.
Quantiles are based on the recent distribution; if conditions change abruptly, expect band widths and skew to adapt over the next few bars.
Parameter choices directly shape behaviour: longer windows favour stability, tighter inner quantiles increase touch frequency, and extreme outer quantiles highlight only the rarest moves.
Final thought
Quantile bands answer a simple question: “How unusual is this move given the current trend and the way price has been missing it lately?” By scoring that question with real, distribution-aware limits rather than one-size-fits-all volatility you get cleaner pullback zones in trends, more honest “extreme” tags in ranges, and a framework for risk that matches the market’s recent personality.
Cumulative Returns by Session [BackQuant]Cumulative Returns by Session
What this is
This tool breaks the trading day into three user-defined sessions and tracks how much each session contributes to return, volatility, and volume. It then aggregates results over a rolling window so you can see which session has been pulling its weight, how streaky each session has been, and how sessions relate to one another through a compact correlation heatmap.
We’ve also given the functionality for the user to use a simplified table, just by switching off all settings they are not interested in.
How it works
1) Session segmentation
You define APAC, EU, and US sessions with explicit hours and time zones. The script detects when each session starts and ends on every intraday bar and records its open, intraday high and low, close, and summed volume.
2) Per-session math
At each session end the script computes:
Return — either Percent: (Close−Open)÷Open×100(Close − Open) ÷ Open × 100(Close−Open)÷Open×100 or Points: (Close−Open)(Close − Open)(Close−Open), based on your selection.
Volatility — either Range: (High−Low)÷Open×100(High − Low) ÷ Open × 100(High−Low)÷Open×100 or ATR scaled by price: ATR÷Open×100ATR ÷ Open × 100ATR÷Open×100.
Volume — total volume transacted during that session.
3) Storage and lookback
Each day’s three session stats are stored as a row. You choose how many recent sessions to keep in memory. The script then:
Builds cumulative returns for APAC, EU, US across the lookback.
Computes averages, win rates, and a Sharpe-like ratio avgreturn÷avgvolatilityavg return ÷ avg volatilityavgreturn÷avgvolatility per session.
Tracks streaks of positive or negative sessions to show momentum.
Tracks drawdowns on cumulative returns to show worst runs from peak.
Computes rolling means over a short window for short-term drift.
4) Correlation heatmap
Using the stored arrays of session returns, the script calculates Pearson correlations between APAC–EU, APAC–US, and EU–US, and colors the matrix by strength and sign so you can spot coupling or decoupling at a glance.
What it plots
Three lines: cumulative return for APAC, EU, US over the chosen lookback.
Zero reference line for orientation.
A statistics table with cumulative %, average %, positive session rate, and optional columns for volatility, average volume, max drawdown, current streak, return-to-vol ratio, and rolling average.
A small correlation heatmap table showing APAC, EU, US cross-session correlations.
How to use it
Pick the asset — leave Custom Instrument empty to use the chart symbol, or point to another symbol for cross-asset studies.
Set your sessions and time zones — defaults approximate APAC, EU, and US hours, but you can align them to exchange times or your workflow.
Choose calculation modes — Percent vs Points for return, Range vs ATR for volatility. Points are convenient for futures and fixed-tick assets, Percent is comparable across symbols.
Decide the lookback — more sessions smooths lines and stats; fewer sessions makes the tool more reactive.
Toggle analytics — add volatility, volume, drawdown, streaks, Sharpe-like ratio, rolling averages, and the correlation table as needed.
Why session attribution helps
Different sessions are driven by different flows. Asia often sets the overnight tone, Europe adds liquidity and direction changes, and the US session can dominate range expansion. Separating contributions by session helps you:
Identify which session has been the main driver of net trend.
Measure whether volatility or volume is concentrated in a specific window.
See if one session’s gains are consistently given back in another.
Adapt tactics: fade during a mean-reverting session, press during a trending session.
Reading the tables
Cumulative % — sum of session returns over the lookback. The sign and slope tell you who is carrying the move.
Avg Return % and Positive Sessions % — direction and hit rate. A low average but high hit rate implies many small moves; the reverse implies occasional big swings.
Avg Volatility % — typical intrabars range for that session. Compare with Avg Return to judge efficiency.
Return/Vol Ratio — return per unit of volatility. Higher is better for stability.
Max Drawdown % — worst cumulative give-back within the lookback. A quick way to spot riskiness by session.
Current Streak — consecutive up or down sessions. Useful for mean-reversion or regime awareness.
Rolling Avg % — short-window drift indicator to catch recent turnarounds.
Correlation matrix — green clusters indicate sessions tending to move together; red indicates offsetting behavior.
Settings overview
Basic
Number of Sessions — how many recent days to include.
Custom Instrument — analyze another ticker while staying on your current chart.
Session Configuration and Times
Enable or hide APAC, EU, US rows.
Set hours per session and the specific time zone for each.
Calculation Methods
Return Calculation — Percent or Points.
Volatility Calculation — Range or ATR; ATR Length when applicable.
Advanced Analytics
Correlation, Drawdown, Momentum, Sharpe-like ratio, Rolling Statistics, Rolling Period.
Display Options and Colors
Show Statistics Table and its position.
Toggle columns for Volatility and Volume.
Pick individual colors for each session line and row accents.
Common applications
Session bias mapping — find which window tends to trend in your market and plan exposure accordingly.
Strategy scheduling — allocate attention or risk to the session with the best return-to-vol ratio.
News and macro awareness — see if correlation rises around central bank cycles or major data releases.
Cross-asset monitoring — set the Custom Instrument to a driver (index future, DXY, yields) to see if your symbol reacts in a particular session.
Notes
This indicator works on intraday charts, since sessions are defined within a day. If you change session clocks or time zones, give the script a few bars to accumulate fresh rows. Percent vs Points and Range vs ATR choices affect comparability across assets, so be consistent when comparing symbols.
Session context is one of the simplest ways to explain a messy tape. By separating the day into three windows and scoring each one on return, volatility, and consistency, this tool shows not just where price ended up but when and how it got there. Use the cumulative lines to spot the steady driver, read the table to judge quality and risk, and glance at the heatmap to learn whether the sessions are amplifying or canceling one another. Adjust the hours to your market and let the data tell you which session deserves your focus.
Staggered Exponential PullbacksIndicator Description: Staggered Exponential Pullbacks (Final)
Core Concept
This indicator is designed to dynamically track and visualize price pullbacks from a recent high. It serves as an intelligent alert system and a tool for visualizing potential support levels that follow a predefined, non-linear logic.
Instead of a fixed percentage interval, the indicator calculates the levels based on a fixed, exponentially increasing sequence of percentages. The distance between the levels increases as the price falls further. This models a strategy where larger price movements are tolerated as a pullback deepens before the next signal level is reached. The basis for this calculation is always the highest close of the last x candles.
Key Features
This indicator goes far beyond a simple calculation, offering a range of intelligent features for professional use:
Cascading, Fixed Levels: The levels are based on a fixed sequence of percentage distances (3.0%, 3.6%, 4.3%, etc.), where each new level is calculated from the previous level.
Persistent Support Levels ("Floors"): Once an alert level is breached, it transforms into a fixed support line ("floor"). This line will never move down, even if the market high subsequently drops.
Automatic Upward Adjustment: Established floors are automatically pulled upwards when the market shows new strength and makes higher highs. A once-reached -3% floor will therefore rise with the market.
Intelligent, Self-Cleaning Reset Logic: The indicator recognizes when a pullback sequence has ended and a new one has begun. "Ghost lines" from old, irrelevant price movements are automatically removed from the chart to ensure maximum clarity.
Cascade-Proof Alerts: Even during extremely fast sell-offs that break through multiple levels in a single candle, the indicator correctly captures every single level breach.
Customizable Visualization: All key parameters, such as the lookback period and the colors of the lines, can be easily adjusted in the settings.
Visual Elements on the Chart
The Orange Line (Highest Close): This is the reference line. It always shows the highest closing price within the defined lookback period and has a step-line shape.
The 'Floor' Lines (Default: Yellow): These are solid lines that indicate which percentage levels have already been breached in the current sequence. They function as established support levels.
The 'Next Due' Line (Default: Purple): This is a step-line that displays the next expected alert level. It moves dynamically with the calculation. As soon as the price crosses this line, an alert is triggered, and it transforms into a yellow "Floor" line.
Settings (Inputs)
Number of Candles (Lookback): Defines how many past candles are used to determine the highest closing price.
Displayed Alert Levels (Max 10): Determines the maximum number of levels the indicator will calculate and display.
Color of Floors: Allows you to freely choose the color for the solid, established support lines.
Color of Next Due Line: Allows you to freely choose the color for the next, untriggered alert line.
Setting Up Alerts (Important!)
Since the indicator uses dynamic alert messages, the alert must be set up as follows:
Add the indicator to the chart.
Click the clock icon ("Alert") in the top toolbar.
In the "Condition" field, select the name of this indicator: Staggered Exponential Pullbacks.
In the second dropdown menu, you must select the option "Any alert() function call".
Message: The message box can be left empty. The indicator automatically generates a detailed message (e.g., "Price Alert: Level 2 (3.6%) reached!").
Click "Create".
You only need one single alert to cover all 10 levels.
Important Disclaimer: Not Financial Advice
This indicator is purely a technical analysis tool for visualizing price movements. The displayed lines and triggered alerts do not constitute buy or sell recommendations and are not a form of financial or investment advice. They serve for informational and analytical purposes only.
Trading decisions based on the information from this indicator are made solely at your own risk and responsibility. The author and developer of this script assume no liability for any trading losses. Always conduct your own comprehensive analysis and, if necessary, consult a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
Trend dealing rangeHi all!
This indicator will help you find the current dealing range according to the trend. If the trend is bullish the indicator will look for a range between the latest low pivot to the latest high pivot. Vice versa in a bearish trend. The code uses my new library 'FibonacciRetracement' () that has the same code as my other indicator 'Fibonacci retracement' ().
It plots 5 lines from the low to the high and labels them 0 %, 25 %, 50 %, 75 % and 100 %. A trendline can be drawn between the two pivots (dashed and gray by default). Firstly you can define the pivot lengths used, this setting is in the 'Market structure' section but it also applies to the dealing range (it defaults to 5 (left) and 2 (right)). You can show prices if you want to (shown in parantheses, off by default). You can change the default labels position (from left) and the font size (12 by default and higher up it's 7 for market structure text). Lastly you can change the alert frequency (defaults to once per bar close) and the price that has to enter a zone for alert to be sent. 'Close' means that the closing price (or current price if you change the alert frequency to all or once per bar) has to be inside the zone and 'Wick' means that the entire candle needs to be inside the zone.
It's very useful for traders to find the current dealing range and this indicator will help you to do so.
So, this indicator will give you the dealing range and basic market structure through break of structures and change of characters.
If you have any input or suggestions on future features or bugs, don't hesitate to let me know!
Best of trading luck!
Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ | Trend-Following StrategyThis document presents the Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ Pine Script strategy, a systematic approach designed for trend identification and risk-managed position entry in financial markets. The strategy is engineered for long-only positions and integrates volatility-adjusted components to enhance signal robustness and trade management.
Strategic Design and Methodological Basis
The Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy is constructed upon a foundation of established technical analysis principles, with a focus on objective signal generation and realistic trade execution.
Heikin Ashi for Trend Filtering: The core price data is processed via Heikin Ashi (HA) methodology to mitigate transient market noise and accentuate underlying trend direction. The script offers three distinct HA calculation modes, allowing for comparative analysis and validation:
Manual Calculation: Provides a transparent and deterministic computation of HA values.
ticker.heikinashi(): Utilizes TradingView's built-in function, employing confirmed historical bars to prevent repainting artifacts.
Regular Candles: Allows for direct comparison with standard OHLC price action.
This multi-methodological approach to trend smoothing is critical for robust signal generation.
Adaptive ATR Trailing Stop: A key component is the Average True Range (ATR)-based trailing stop. ATR serves as a dynamic measure of market volatility. The strategy incorporates user-defined parameters (
Key Value and ATR Period) to calibrate the sensitivity of this trailing stop, enabling adaptation to varying market volatility regimes. This mechanism is designed to provide a dynamic exit point, preserving capital and locking in gains as a trend progresses.
EMA Crossover for Signal Generation: Entry and exit signals are derived from the interaction between the Heikin Ashi derived price source and an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A crossover event between these two components is utilized to objectively identify shifts in momentum, signaling potential long entry or exit points.
Rigorous Stop Loss Implementation: A critical feature for risk mitigation, the strategy includes an optional stop loss. This stop loss can be configured as a percentage or fixed point deviation from the entry price. Importantly, stop loss execution is based on real market prices, not the synthetic Heikin Ashi values. This design choice ensures that risk management is grounded in actual market liquidity and price levels, providing a more accurate representation of potential drawdowns during backtesting and live operation.
Backtesting Protocol: The strategy is configured for realistic backtesting, employing fill_orders_on_standard_ohlc=true to simulate order execution at standard OHLC prices. A configurable Date Filter is included to define specific historical periods for performance evaluation.
Data Visualization and Metrics: The script provides on-chart visual overlays for buy/sell signals, the ATR trailing stop, and the stop loss level. An integrated information table displays real-time strategy parameters, current position status, trend direction, and key price levels, facilitating immediate quantitative assessment.
Applicability
The Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy is particularly suited for:
Cryptocurrency Markets: The inherent volatility of assets such as #Bitcoin and #Ethereum makes the ATR-based trailing stop a relevant tool for dynamic risk management.
Systematic Trend Following: Individuals employing systematic methodologies for trend capture will find the objective signal generation and rule-based execution aligned with their approach.
Pine Script Developers and Quants: The transparent code structure and emphasis on realistic backtesting provide a valuable framework for further analysis, modification, and integration into broader quantitative models.
Automated Trading Systems: The clear, deterministic entry and exit conditions facilitate integration into automated trading environments.
Implementation and Evaluation
To evaluate the Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy, apply the script to your chosen chart on TradingView. Adjust the input parameters (Key Value, ATR Period, Heikin Ashi Method, Stop Loss Settings) to observe performance across various asset classes and timeframes. Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to assess the strategy's historical performance characteristics, including profitability, drawdown, and risk-adjusted returns.
I'd love to hear your thoughts, feedback, and any optimizations you discover! Drop a comment below, give it a like if you find it useful, and share your results.
Market Sessions By Zcointv/ScottfdxThis code has been writted By Zcointv/Scottfdx traders
This is a Market Volatility Box Breakout Strategy designed for intraday trading on 5-minute charts.
How it Works:
Volatility Box: The strategy defines a "volatility box" by capturing the price range (High and Low) around the New York market open.
The box begins one hour before the market open and ends 30 minutes after the market open.
The High and Low of this box are locked for the rest of the day.
Breakout Entry: A trade is opened only after this session period has ended.
Long: A 5-minute candle must close above the High of the box.
Short: A 5-minute candle must close below the Low of the box.
Risk Management:
1% Risk: Each trade risks a maximum of 1% of the total account equity. The position size is calculated dynamically based on this risk.
Stop Loss: The initial stop-loss is placed just outside the opposite side of the box.
1:1 Take Profit: The target is set at a 1:1 risk-to-reward ratio.
Partial Exit & Breakeven: When the take-profit target is hit, 50% of the position is closed. The stop-loss for the remaining 50% is then immediately moved to the entry price (breakeven).
Key Features:
The strategy is limited to one trade per day.
The indicator also has options to display configurable boxes for the Tokyo and London sessions.
The High and Low levels of the volatility box are plotted on the chart for visual reference.
TimeSeriesBenchmarkMeasuresLibrary "TimeSeriesBenchmarkMeasures"
Time Series Benchmark Metrics. \
Provides a comprehensive set of functions for benchmarking time series data, allowing you to evaluate the accuracy, stability, and risk characteristics of various models or strategies. The functions cover a wide range of statistical measures, including accuracy metrics (MAE, MSE, RMSE, NRMSE, MAPE, SMAPE), autocorrelation analysis (ACF, ADF), and risk measures (Theils Inequality, Sharpness, Resolution, Coverage, and Pinball).
___
Reference:
- github.com .
- medium.com .
- www.salesforce.com .
- towardsdatascience.com .
- github.com .
mae(actual, forecasts)
In statistics, mean absolute error (MAE) is a measure of errors between paired observations expressing the same phenomenon. Examples of Y versus X include comparisons of predicted versus observed, subsequent time versus initial time, and one technique of measurement versus an alternative technique of measurement.
Parameters:
actual (array) : List of actual values.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts values.
Returns: - Mean Absolute Error (MAE).
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org .
- The Orange Book of Machine Learning - Carl McBride Ellis .
mse(actual, forecasts)
The Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a measure of the quality of an estimator. As it is derived from the square of Euclidean distance, it is always a positive value that decreases as the error approaches zero.
Parameters:
actual (array) : List of actual values.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts values.
Returns: - Mean Squared Error (MSE).
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org .
rmse(targets, forecasts, order, offset)
Calculates the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) between target observations and forecasts. RMSE is a standard measure of the differences between values predicted by a model and the values actually observed.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
order (int) : Model order parameter that determines the starting position in the targets array, `default=0`.
offset (int) : Forecast offset related to target, `default=0`.
Returns: - RMSE value.
nmrse(targets, forecasts, order, offset)
Normalised Root Mean Squared Error.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
order (int) : Model order parameter that determines the starting position in the targets array, `default=0`.
offset (int) : Forecast offset related to target, `default=0`.
Returns: - NRMSE value.
rmse_interval(targets, forecasts)
Root Mean Squared Error for a set of interval windows. Computes RMSE by converting interval forecasts (with min/max bounds) into point forecasts using the mean of the interval bounds, then compares against actual target values.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - RMSE value for the combined interval list.
mape(targets, forecasts)
Mean Average Percentual Error.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
Returns: - MAPE value.
smape(targets, forecasts, mode)
Symmetric Mean Average Percentual Error. Calculates the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) between actual targets and forecasts. MAPE is a common metric for evaluating forecast accuracy, expressed as a percentage, lower values indicate a better forecast accuracy.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : List of forecasts.
mode (int) : Type of method: default=0:`sum(abs(Fi-Ti)) / sum(Fi+Ti)` , 1:`mean(abs(Fi-Ti) / ((Fi + Ti) / 2))` , 2:`mean(abs(Fi-Ti) / (abs(Fi) + abs(Ti))) * 100`
Returns: - SMAPE value.
mape_interval(targets, forecasts)
Mean Average Percentual Error for a set of interval windows.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - MAPE value for the combined interval list.
acf(data, k)
Autocorrelation Function (ACF) for a time series at a specified lag.
Parameters:
data (array) : Sample data of the observations.
k (int) : The lag period for which to calculate the autocorrelation. Must be a non-negative integer.
Returns: - The autocorrelation value at the specified lag, ranging from -1 to 1.
___
The autocorrelation function measures the linear dependence between observations in a time series
at different time lags. It quantifies how well the series correlates with itself at different
time intervals, which is useful for identifying patterns, seasonality, and the appropriate
lag structure for time series models.
ACF values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate
strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate no linear correlation.
___
Reference:
- statisticsbyjim.com
acf_multiple(data, k)
Autocorrelation function (ACF) for a time series at a set of specified lags.
Parameters:
data (array) : Sample data of the observations.
k (array) : List of lag periods for which to calculate the autocorrelation. Must be a non-negative integer.
Returns: - List of ACF values for provided lags.
___
The autocorrelation function measures the linear dependence between observations in a time series
at different time lags. It quantifies how well the series correlates with itself at different
time intervals, which is useful for identifying patterns, seasonality, and the appropriate
lag structure for time series models.
ACF values close to 1 indicate strong positive correlation, values close to -1 indicate
strong negative correlation, and values near 0 indicate no linear correlation.
___
Reference:
- statisticsbyjim.com
adfuller(data, n_lag, conf)
: Augmented Dickey-Fuller test for stationarity.
Parameters:
data (array) : Data series.
n_lag (int) : Maximum lag.
conf (string) : Confidence Probability level used to test for critical value, (`90%`, `95%`, `99%`).
Returns: - `adf` The test statistic.
- `crit` Critical value for the test statistic at the 10 % levels.
- `nobs` Number of observations used for the ADF regression and calculation of the critical values.
___
The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test is used to determine whether a time series is stationary
or contains a unit root (non-stationary). The null hypothesis is that the series has a unit root
(is non-stationary), while the alternative hypothesis is that the series is stationary.
A stationary time series has statistical properties that do not change over time, making it
suitable for many time series forecasting models. If the test statistic is less than the
critical value, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude the series is stationary.
___
Reference:
- www.jstor.org
- en.wikipedia.org
theils_inequality(targets, forecasts)
Calculates Theil's Inequality Coefficient, a measure of forecast accuracy that quantifies the relative difference between actual and predicted values.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target observations.
forecasts (array) : Matrix with list of forecasts, ordered column wise.
Returns: - Theil's Inequality Coefficient value, value closer to 0 is better.
___
Theil's Inequality Coefficient is calculated as: `sqrt(Sum((y_i - f_i)^2)) / (sqrt(Sum(y_i^2)) + sqrt(Sum(f_i^2)))`
where `y_i` represents actual values and `f_i` represents forecast values.
This metric ranges from 0 to infinity, with 0 indicating perfect forecast accuracy.
___
Reference:
- en.wikipedia.org
sharpness(forecasts)
The average width of the forecast intervals across all observations, representing the sharpness or precision of the predictive intervals.
Parameters:
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - Sharpness The sharpness level, which is the average width of all prediction intervals across the forecast horizon.
___
Sharpness is an important metric for evaluating forecast quality. It measures how narrow or wide the
prediction intervals are. Higher sharpness (narrower intervals) indicates greater precision in the
forecast intervals, while lower sharpness (wider intervals) suggests less precision.
The sharpness metric is calculated as the mean of the interval widths across all observations, where
each interval width is the difference between the upper and lower bounds of the prediction interval.
Note: This function assumes that the forecasts matrix has at least 2 columns, with the first column
representing the lower bounds and the second column representing the upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: principles and practice. OTexts. otexts.com
resolution(forecasts)
Calculates the resolution of forecast intervals, measuring the average absolute difference between individual forecast interval widths and the overall sharpness measure.
Parameters:
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - The average absolute difference between individual forecast interval widths and the overall sharpness measure, representing the resolution of the forecasts.
___
Resolution is a key metric for evaluating forecast quality that measures the consistency of prediction
interval widths. It quantifies how much the individual forecast intervals vary from the average interval
width (sharpness). High resolution indicates that the forecast intervals are relatively consistent
across observations, while low resolution suggests significant variation in interval widths.
The resolution is calculated as the mean absolute deviation of individual interval widths from the
overall sharpness value. This provides insight into the uniformity of the forecast uncertainty
estimates across the forecast horizon.
Note: This function requires the forecasts matrix to have at least 2 columns (min, max) representing
the lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- (sites.stat.washington.edu)
- (www.jstor.org)
coverage(targets, forecasts)
Calculates the coverage probability, which is the percentage of target values that fall within the corresponding forecasted prediction intervals.
Parameters:
targets (array) : List of target values.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - Percent of target values that fall within their corresponding forecast intervals, expressed as a decimal value between 0 and 1 (or 0% and 100%).
___
Coverage probability is a crucial metric for evaluating the reliability of prediction intervals.
It measures how well the forecast intervals capture the actual observed values. An ideal forecast
should have a coverage probability close to the nominal confidence level (e.g., 90%, 95%, or 99%).
For example, if a 95% prediction interval is used, we expect approximately 95% of the actual
target values to fall within those intervals. If the coverage is significantly lower than the
nominal level, the intervals may be too narrow; if it's significantly higher, the intervals may
be too wide.
Note: This function requires the targets array and forecasts matrix to have the same number of
observations, and the forecasts matrix must have at least 2 columns (min, max) representing
the lower and upper bounds of prediction intervals.
___
Reference:
- (www.jstor.org)
pinball(tau, target, forecast)
Pinball loss function, measures the asymmetric loss for quantile forecasts.
Parameters:
tau (float) : The quantile level (between 0 and 1), where 0.5 represents the median.
target (float) : The actual observed value to compare against.
forecast (float) : The forecasted value.
Returns: - The Pinball loss value, which quantifies the distance between the forecast and target relative to the specified quantile level.
___
The Pinball loss function is specifically designed for evaluating quantile forecasts. It is
asymmetric, meaning it penalizes underestimates and overestimates differently depending on the
quantile level being evaluated.
For a given quantile τ, the loss function is defined as:
- If target >= forecast: (target - forecast) * τ
- If target < forecast: (forecast - target) * (1 - τ)
This loss function is commonly used in quantile regression and probabilistic forecasting
to evaluate how well forecasts capture specific quantiles of the target distribution.
___
Reference:
- (www.otexts.com)
pinball_mean(tau, targets, forecasts)
Calculates the mean pinball loss for quantile regression.
Parameters:
tau (float) : The quantile level (between 0 and 1), where 0.5 represents the median.
targets (array) : The actual observed values to compare against.
forecasts (matrix) : The forecasted values in matrix format with at least 2 columns (min, max).
Returns: - The mean pinball loss value across all observations.
___
The pinball_mean() function computes the average Pinball loss across multiple observations,
making it suitable for evaluating overall forecast performance in quantile regression tasks.
This function leverages the asymmetric Pinball loss function to evaluate how well forecasts
capture specific quantiles of the target distribution. The choice of which column from the
forecasts matrix to use depends on the quantile level:
- For τ ≤ 0.5: Uses the first column (min) of forecasts
- For τ > 0.5: Uses the second column (max) of forecasts
This loss function is commonly used in quantile regression and probabilistic forecasting
to evaluate how well forecasts capture specific quantiles of the target distribution.
___
Reference:
- (www.otexts.com)
[Pandora][Swarm] Rapid Exponential Moving AverageENVISIONING POSSIBILITY
What is the theoretical pinnacle of possibility? The current state of algorithmic affairs falls far short of my aspirations for achievable feasibility. I'm lifting the lid off of Pandora's box once again, very publicly this time, as a brute force challenge to conventional 'wisdom'. The unfolding series of time mandates a transcendental systemic alteration...
THE MOVING AVERAGE ZOO:
The realm of digital signal processing for trading is filled with familiar antiquated filtering tools. Two families of filtration, being 'infinite impulse response' (EMA, RMA, etc.) and 'finite impulse response' (WMA, SMA, etc.), are prevalently employed without question. These filter types are the mules and donkeys of data analysis, broadly accepted for use in finance.
At first glance, they appear sufficient for most tasks, offering a basic straightforward way to reduce noise and highlight trends. Yet, beneath their simplistic facade lies a constellation of limitations and impediments, each having its own finicky quirks. Upon closer inspection, identifiable drawbacks render them far from ideal for many real-world applications in today's volatile markets.
KNOWN FUNDAMENTAL FLAWS:
Despite commonplace moving average (MA) popularity, these conventional filters suffer from an assortment of fundamental flaws. Most of them don't genuinely address core challenges of how to preserve the true dynamics of a signal while suppressing noise and retaining cutoff frequency compliance. Their simple cookie cutter structures make them ill-suited in actuality for dynamic market environments. In reality, they often trade one problem for another dilemma, forsaking analytics to choose between distortion and delay.
A deeper seeded issue remains within frequency compliance, how adequately a filter respects (or disrespects) the underlying signal’s spectral properties according to it's assigned periodic parameter. Traditional MAs habitually distort phase relationships, causing delayed reactions with surplus lag or exaggerations with excessive undershoot/overshoot. For applications requiring timely resilience, such as algorithmic trading, these shortcomings are often functionally unacceptable. What’s needed is vigorous filters that can more accurately retain signal behaviors while minimizing lag without sacrificing smoothness and uniformity. Until then, the public MA zoo remains as a collection of corny compromises, rather than a favorable toolbelt of solutions.
P.S.: In PSv7+, in my opinion, many of these geriatric MAs deserve no future with ease of access for the naive, simply not knowing these filters are most likely creating bigger problems than solving any.
R.E.M.A.
What is this? I prefer to think of it as the "radical EMA", definitely along my lines of a retire everything morte algorithm. This isn't your run of the mill average from the petting zoo. I would categorize it as a paradigm shifting rampant economic masochistic annihilator, sufficiently good enough to begin ruthlessly executing moving averages left and right. Um, yeah... that kind of moving average destructor as you may soon recognize with a few 'Filters+' settings adjustments, realizing ordinary EMA has been doing us an injustice all this time.
Does it possess the capability to relentlessly exterminate most averaging filters in existence? Well, it's about time we find out, by uncaging it on the loose into the greater economic wilderness. Only then can we truly find out if it is indeed a radical exponential market accelerant whose time has come. If it is, then it may eventually become a reality erasing monolithic anomaly destined for greatness, ultimately changing the entire landscape of trading in perpetuity.
UNLEASHING NEXT-GEN:
This lone next generation exoweapon algorithm is intended to initiate the transformative beginning stages of mass filtration deprecation. However, it won't be the only one, just the first arrival of it's alien kind from me. Welcome to notion #1 of my future filtration frontier, on this episode of the algorithmic twilight zone. Where reality takes a twisting turn one dimension beyond practical logic, after persistent models of mindset disintegrate into insignificance, followed by illusory perception confronted into cognitive dissonance.
An evolutionary path to genuine advancement resides outside the prison of preconceptions, manifesting only after divergence from persistent binding restrictions of dogmatic doctrines. Such a genesis in transformative thinking will catalyze unbounded cognitive potential, plowing the way for the cultivation of total redesigns of thought. Futuristic innovative breakthroughs demand the surrender of legacy and outmoded understandings.
Now that the world's largest assembly of investors has been ensembled, there are additional tasks left to perform. I'm compelled to deploy this mathematical-weapon of mass financial creation into it's rightful destined hands, to "WE THE PEOPLE" of TV.
SCRIPT INTENTION:
Deprecate anything and everything as any non-commercial member sees desirably fit. This includes your existing code formulations already in working functional modes of operation AND/OR future projects in the works. Swapping is nearly as simple as copying and pasting with meager modifications, after you have identified comparable likeness in this indicators settings with a visual assessment. Results may become eye opening, but only if you dare to look and test.
Where you may suspect a ta.filter() is lacking sufficient luster or may be flat out majorly deficient, employing rema, drema, trema, or qrema configurations may be a more suitable replacement. That's up to you to discern. My code satire already identifies likely bottom of the barrel suspects that either belong in the extinction record or have already been marked for deprecation. They are ordered more towards the bottom by rank where they belong. SuperSmoother is a masterpiece here to stay, being my original go-to reference filter. Everything you see here is already deprecated, including REMA...
REMA CHARACTERISTICS
- VERY low lag
- No overshoot
- Frequency compliant
- Proper initialization at bar_index==0
- Period parameter accepts poitive floating point numerics (AND integers!)
- Infinite impulse response (IIR) filter
- Compact code footprint
- Minimized computational overhead
Dip Hunter [BackQuant]Dip Hunter
What this tool does in plain language
Dip Hunter is a pullback detector designed to find high quality buy-the-dip opportunities inside healthy trends and to avoid random knife catches. It watches for a quick drop from a recent high, checks that the drop happened with meaningful participation and volatility, verifies short-term weakness inside a larger uptrend, then scores the setup and paints the chart so you can act with confidence. It also draws clean entry lines, provides a meter that shows dip strength at a glance, and ships with alerts that match common execution workflows.
How Dip Hunter thinks
It defines a recent swing reference, measures how far price has dipped off that high, and only looks at candidates that meet your minimum percentage drop.
It confirms the dip with real activity by requiring a volume spike and a volatility spike.
It checks structure with two EMAs. Price should be weak in the short term while the larger context remains constructive.
It optionally requires a higher-timeframe trend to be up so you focus on pullbacks in trending markets.
It bundles those checks into a score and shows you the score on the candles and on a gradient meter.
When everything lines up it paints a green triangle below the bar, shades the background, and (if you wish) draws a horizontal entry line at your chosen level.
Inputs and what they mean
Dip Hunter Settings
• Vol Lookback and Vol Spike : The script computes an average volume over the lookback window and flags a spike when current volume is a multiple of that average. A multiplier of 2.0 means today’s volume must be at least double the average. This helps filter noise and focuses on dips that other traders actually traded.
• Fast EMA and Slow EMA : Short-term and medium-term structure references. A dip is more credible if price closes below the fast EMA while the fast EMA is still below the slow EMA during the pullback. That is classic corrective behavior inside a larger trend.
• Price Smooth : Optional smoothing length for price-derived series. Use this if you trade very noisy assets or low timeframes.
• Volatility Len and Vol Spike (volatility) : The script checks both standard deviation and true range against their own averages. If either expands beyond your multiplier the market confirms the move with range.
• Dip % and Lookback Bars : The engine finds the highest high over the lookback window, then computes the percentage drawdown from that high to the current close. Only dips larger than your threshold qualify.
Trend Filter
• Enable Trend Filter : When on, Dip Hunter will only trigger if the market is in an uptrend.
• Trend EMA Period : The longer EMA that defines the session’s backbone trend.
• Minimum Trend Strength : A small positive slope requirement. In practice this means the trend EMA should be rising, and price should be above it. You can raise the value to be more selective.
Entries
• Show Entry Lines : Draws a horizontal guide from the signal bar for a fixed number of bars. Great for limit orders, scaling, or re-tests.
• Line Length (bars) : How far the entry guide extends.
• Min Gap (bars) : Suppresses new entry lines if another dip fired recently. Prevents clutter during choppy sequences.
• Entry Price : Choose the line level. “Low” anchors at the signal candle’s low. “Close” anchors at the signal close. “Dip % Level” anchors at the theoretical level defined by recent_high × (1 − dip%). This lets you work resting orders at a consistent discount.
Heat / Meter
• Color Bars by Score : Colors each candle using a red→white→green gradient. Red is overheated, green is prime dip territory, white is neutral.
• Show Meter Table : Adds a compact gradient strip with a pointer that tracks the current score.
• Meter Cells and Meter Position : Resolution and placement of the meter.
UI Settings
• Show Dip Signals : Plots green triangles under qualifying bars and tints the background very lightly.
• Show EMAs : Plots fast, slow, and the trend EMA (if the trend filter is enabled).
• Bullish, Bearish, Neutral colors : Theme controls for shapes, fills, and bar painting.
Core calculations explained simply
Recent high and dip percent
The script finds the highest high over Lookback Bars , calls it “recent high,” then calculates:
dip% = (recent_high − close) ÷ recent_high × 100.
If dip% is larger than Dip % , condition one passes.
Volume confirmation
It computes a simple moving average of volume over Vol Lookback . If current volume ÷ average volume > Vol Spike , we have a participation spike. It also checks 5-bar ROC of volume. If ROC > 50 the spike is forceful. This gets an extra score point.
Volatility confirmation
Two independent checks:
• Standard deviation of closes vs its own average.
• True range vs ATR.
If either expands beyond Vol Spike (volatility) the move has range. This prevents false triggers from quiet drifts.
Short-term structure
Price should close below the Fast EMA and the fast EMA should be below the Slow EMA at the moment of the dip. That is the anatomy of a pullback rather than a full breakdown.
Macro trend context (optional)
When Enable Trend Filter is on, the Trend EMA must be rising and price must be above it. The logic prefers “micro weakness inside macro strength” which is the highest probability pattern for buying dips.
Signal formation
A valid dip requires:
• dip% > threshold
• volume spike true
• volatility spike true
• close below fast EMA
• fast EMA below slow EMA
If the trend filter is enabled, a rising trend EMA with price above it is also required. When all true, the triangle prints, the background tints, and optional entry lines are drawn.
Scoring and visuals
Binary checks into a continuous score
Each component contributes to a score between 0 and 1. The script then rescales to a centered range (−50 to +50).
• Low or negative scores imply “overheated” conditions and are shaded toward red.
• High positive scores imply “ripe for a dip buy” conditions and are shaded toward green.
• The gradient meter repeats the same logic, with a pointer so you can read the state quickly.
Bar coloring
If you enable “Color Bars by Score,” each candle inherits the gradient. This makes sequences obvious. Red clusters warn you not to buy. White means neutral. Increasing green suggests the pullback is maturing.
EMAs and the trend EMA
• Fast EMA turns down relative to the slow EMA inside the pullback.
• Trend EMA stays rising and above price once the dip exhausts, which is your cue to focus on long setups rather than bottom fishing in downtrends.
Entry lines
When a fresh signal fires and no other signal happened within Min Gap (bars) , the indicator draws a horizontal level for Line Length bars. Use these lines for limit entries at the low, at the close, or at the defined dip-percent level. This keeps your plan consistent across instruments.
Alerts and what they mean
• Market Overheated : Score is deeply negative. Do not chase. Wait for green.
• Close To A Dip : Score has reached a healthy level but the full signal did not trigger yet. Prepare orders.
• Dip Confirmed : First bar of a fresh validated dip. This is the most direct entry alert.
• Dip Active : The dip condition remains valid. You can scale in on re-tests.
• Dip Fading : Score crosses below 0.5 from above. Momentum of the setup is fading. Tighten stops or take partials.
• Trend Blocked Signal : All dip conditions passed but the trend filter is offside. Either reduce risk or skip, depending on your plan.
How to trade with Dip Hunter
Classic pullback in uptrend
Turn on the trend filter.
Watch for a Dip Confirmed alert with green triangle.
Use the entry line at “Dip % Level” to stage a limit order. This keeps your entries consistent across assets and timeframes.
Initial stop under the signal bar’s low or under the next lower EMA band.
First target at prior swing high, second target at a multiple of risk.
If you use partials, trail the remainder under the fast EMA once price reclaims it.
Aggressive intraday scalps
Lower Dip % and Lookback Bars so you catch shallow flags.
Keep Vol Spike meaningful so you only trade when participation appears.
Take quick partials when price reclaims the fast EMA, then exit on Dip Fading if momentum stalls.
Counter-trend probes
Disable the trend filter if you intentionally hunt reflex bounces in downtrends.
Require strong volume and volatility confirmation.
Use smaller size and faster targets. The meter should move quickly from red toward white and then green. If it does not, step aside.
Risk management templates
Stops
• Conservative: below the entry line minus a small buffer or below the signal bar’s low.
• Structural: below the slow EMA if you aim for swing continuation.
• Time stop: if price does not reclaim the fast EMA within N bars, exit.
Position sizing
Use the distance between the entry line and your structural stop to size consistently. The script’s entry lines make this distance obvious.
Scaling
• Scale at the entry line first touch.
• Add only if the meter stays green and price reclaims the fast EMA.
• Stop adding on a Dip Fading alert.
Tuning guide by market and timeframe
Equities daily
• Dip %: 1.5 to 3.0
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 10
• Vol Spike: 1.5 to 2.5
• Volatility Len: 14 to 20
• Trend EMA: 100 or 200
• Keep trend filter on for a cleaner list.
Futures and FX intraday
• Dip %: 0.4 to 1.2
• Lookback Bars: 3 to 7
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• Volatility Len: 10 to 14
• Use Min Gap to avoid clusters during news.
Crypto
• Dip %: 3.0 to 6.0 for majors on higher timeframes, lower on 15m to 1h
• Lookback Bars: 5 to 12
• Vol Spike: 1.8 to 3.0
• ATR and stdev checks help in erratic sessions.
Reading the chart at a glance
• Green triangle below the bar: a validated dip.
• Light green background: the current bar meets the full condition.
• Bar gradient: red is overheated, white is neutral, green is dip-friendly.
• EMAs: fast below slow during the pullback, then reclaim fast EMA on the bounce for quality continuation.
• Trend EMA: a rising spine when the filter is on.
• Entry line: a fixed level to anchor orders and risk.
• Meter pointer: right side toward “Dip” means conditions are maturing.
Why this combination reduces false positives
Any single criterion will trigger too often. Dip Hunter demands a dip off a recent high plus a volume surge plus a volatility expansion plus corrective EMA structure. Optional trend alignment pushes odds further in your favor. The score and meter visualize how many of these boxes you are actually ticking, which is more reliable than a binary dot.
Limitations and practical tips
• Thin or illiquid symbols can spoof volume spikes. Use larger Vol Lookback or raise Vol Spike .
• Sideways markets will show frequent small dips. Increase Dip % or keep the trend filter on.
• News candles can blow through entry lines. Widen stops or skip around known events.
• If you see many back-to-back triangles, raise Min Gap to keep only the best setups.
Quick setup recipes
• Clean swing trader: Trend filter on, Dip % 2.0 to 3.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 100 EMA.
• Fast intraday scalper: Trend filter off, Dip % 0.7 to 1.0, Vol Spike 2.5, Volatility Len 10, Fast 9 EMA, Slow 21 EMA, Min Gap 10 bars.
• Crypto swing: Trend filter on, Dip % 4.0, Vol Spike 2.0, Volatility Len 14, Fast 20 EMA, Slow 50 EMA, Trend 200 EMA.
Summary
Dip Hunter is a focused pullback engine. It quantifies a real dip off a recent high, validates it with volume and volatility expansion, enforces corrective structure with EMAs, and optionally restricts signals to an uptrend. The score, bar gradient, and meter make reading conditions instant. Entry lines and alerts turn that read into an executable plan. Tune the thresholds to your market and timeframe, then let the tool keep you patient in red, selective in white, and decisive in green.
MacD Alerts MACD Triggers (MTF) — Buy/Sell Alerts
What it is
A clean, multi-timeframe MACD indicator that gives you separate, ready-to-use alerts for:
• MACD Buy – MACD line crosses above the Signal line
• MACD Sell – MACD line crosses below the Signal line
It keeps the familiar MACD lines + histogram, adds optional 4-color histogram logic, and marks crossovers with green/red dots. Works on any symbol and any timeframe.
How signals are generated
• MACD = EMA(fast) − EMA(slow)
• Signal = SMA(MACD, length)
• Buy when crossover(MACD, Signal)
• Sell when crossunder(MACD, Signal)
• You can compute MACD on the chart timeframe or lock it to another timeframe (e.g., 1h MACD on a 4h chart).
Key features
• MTF engine: choose Use Current Chart Resolution or a custom timeframe.
• Separate alert conditions: publish two alerts (“MACD Buy” and “MACD Sell”)—ideal for different notifications or webhooks.
• Visuals: MACD/Signal lines, optional 4-color histogram (trend & above/below zero), and crossover dots.
• Heikin Ashi friendly: runs on whatever candle type your chart uses. (Tip below if you want “regular” candles while viewing HA.)
Settings (Inputs)
• Use Current Chart Resolution (on/off)
• Custom Timeframe (when the above is off)
• Show MACD & Signal / Show Histogram / Show Dots
• Color MACD on Signal Cross
• Use 4-color Histogram
• Lengths: Fast EMA (12), Slow EMA (26), Signal SMA (9)
How to set alerts (2 minutes)
1. Add the script to your chart.
2. Click ⏰ Alerts → + Create Alert.
3. Condition: choose this indicator → MACD Buy.
4. Options: Once per bar close (recommended).
5. Set your notification method (popup/email/webhook) → Create.
6. Repeat for MACD Sell.
Webhook tip: send JSON like
{"symbol":"{{ticker}}","time":"{{timenow}}","signal":"BUY","price":"{{close}}"}
(and “SELL” for the sell alert).
Good to know
• Symbol-agnostic: use it on crypto, stocks, indices—no symbol is hard-coded.
• Timeframe behavior: alerts are evaluated on bar close of the MACD timeframe you pick. Using a higher TF on a lower-TF chart is supported.
• Heikin Ashi note: if your chart uses HA, the calculations use HA by default. To force “regular” candles while viewing HA, tweak the code to use ticker.heikinashi() only when you want it.
• No repainting on close: crossover signals are confirmed at bar close; choose Once per bar close to avoid intra-bar noise.
Disclaimer
This is a tool, not advice. Test across timeframes/markets and combine with risk management (position sizing, SL/TP). Past performance ≠ future results.
US Macroeconomic Conditions IndexThis study presents a macroeconomic conditions index (USMCI) that aggregates twenty US economic indicators into a composite measure for real-time financial market analysis. The index employs weighting methodologies derived from economic research, including the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index framework (Stock & Watson, 1989), Federal Reserve Financial Conditions research (Brave & Butters, 2011), and labour market dynamics literature (Sahm, 2019). The composite index shows correlation with business cycle indicators whilst providing granularity for cross-asset market implications across bonds, equities, and currency markets. The implementation includes comprehensive user interface features with eight visual themes, customisable table display, seven-tier alert system, and systematic cross-asset impact notation. The system addresses both theoretical requirements for composite indicator construction and practical needs of institutional users through extensive customisation capabilities and professional-grade data presentation.
Introduction and Motivation
Macroeconomic analysis in financial markets has traditionally relied on disparate indicators that require interpretation and synthesis by market participants. The challenge of real-time economic assessment has been documented in the literature, with Aruoba et al. (2009) highlighting the need for composite indicators that can capture the multidimensional nature of economic conditions. Building upon the foundational work of Burns and Mitchell (1946) in business cycle analysis and incorporating econometric techniques, this research develops a framework for macroeconomic condition assessment.
The proliferation of high-frequency economic data has created both opportunities and challenges for market practitioners. Whilst the availability of real-time data from sources such as the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) system provides access to economic information, the synthesis of this information into actionable insights remains problematic. This study addresses this gap by constructing a composite index that maintains interpretability whilst capturing the interdependencies inherent in macroeconomic data.
Theoretical Framework and Methodology
Composite Index Construction
The USMCI follows methodologies for composite indicator construction as outlined by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD, 2008). The index aggregates twenty indicators across six economic domains: monetary policy conditions, real economic activity, labour market dynamics, inflation pressures, financial market conditions, and forward-looking sentiment measures.
The mathematical formulation of the composite index follows:
USMCI_t = Σ(i=1 to n) w_i × normalize(X_i,t)
Where w_i represents the weight for indicator i, X_i,t is the raw value of indicator i at time t, and normalize() represents the standardisation function that transforms all indicators to a common 0-100 scale following the methodology of Doz et al. (2011).
Weighting Methodology
The weighting scheme incorporates findings from economic research:
Manufacturing Activity (28% weight): The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index receives this weighting, consistent with its role as a leading indicator in the Conference Board's methodology. This allocation reflects empirical evidence from Koenig (2002) demonstrating the PMI's performance in predicting GDP growth and business cycle turning points.
Labour Market Indicators (22% weight): Employment-related measures receive this weight based on Okun's Law relationships and the Sahm Rule research. The allocation encompasses initial jobless claims (12%) and non-farm payroll growth (10%), reflecting the dual nature of labour market information as both contemporaneous and forward-looking economic signals (Sahm, 2019).
Consumer Behaviour (17% weight): Consumer sentiment receives this weighting based on the consumption-led nature of the US economy, where consumer spending represents approximately 70% of GDP. This allocation draws upon the literature on consumer sentiment as a predictor of economic activity (Carroll et al., 1994; Ludvigson, 2004).
Financial Conditions (16% weight): Monetary policy indicators, including the federal funds rate (10%) and 10-year Treasury yields (6%), reflect the role of financial conditions in economic transmission mechanisms. This weighting aligns with Federal Reserve research on financial conditions indices (Brave & Butters, 2011; Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index methodology).
Inflation Dynamics (11% weight): Core Consumer Price Index receives weighting consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate and Taylor Rule literature, reflecting the importance of price stability in macroeconomic assessment (Taylor, 1993; Clarida et al., 2000).
Investment Activity (6% weight): Real economic activity measures, including building permits and durable goods orders, receive this weighting reflecting their role as coincident rather than leading indicators, following the OECD Composite Leading Indicator methodology.
Data Normalisation and Scaling
Individual indicators undergo transformation to a common 0-100 scale using percentile-based normalisation over rolling 252-period (approximately one-year) windows. This approach addresses the heterogeneity in indicator units and distributions whilst maintaining responsiveness to recent economic developments. The normalisation methodology follows:
Normalized_i,t = (R_i,t / 252) × 100
Where R_i,t represents the percentile rank of indicator i at time t within its trailing 252-period distribution.
Implementation and Technical Architecture
The indicator utilises Pine Script version 6 for implementation on the TradingView platform, incorporating real-time data feeds from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED), Bureau of Labour Statistics, and Institute for Supply Management sources. The architecture employs request.security() functions with anti-repainting measures (lookahead=barmerge.lookahead_off) to ensure temporal consistency in signal generation.
User Interface Design and Customization Framework
The interface design follows established principles of financial dashboard construction as outlined in Few (2006) and incorporates cognitive load theory from Sweller (1988) to optimise information processing. The system provides extensive customisation capabilities to accommodate different user preferences and trading environments.
Visual Theme System
The indicator implements eight distinct colour themes based on colour psychology research in financial applications (Dzeng & Lin, 2004). Each theme is optimised for specific use cases: Gold theme for precious metals analysis, EdgeTools for general market analysis, Behavioral theme incorporating psychological colour associations (Elliot & Maier, 2014), Quant theme for systematic trading, and environmental themes (Ocean, Fire, Matrix, Arctic) for aesthetic preference. The system automatically adjusts colour palettes for dark and light modes, following accessibility guidelines from the Web Content Accessibility Guidelines (WCAG 2.1) to ensure readability across different viewing conditions.
Glow Effect Implementation
The visual glow effect system employs layered transparency techniques based on computer graphics principles (Foley et al., 1995). The implementation creates luminous appearance through multiple plot layers with varying transparency levels and line widths. Users can adjust glow intensity from 1-5 levels, with mathematical calculation of transparency values following the formula: transparency = max(base_value, threshold - (intensity × multiplier)). This approach provides smooth visual enhancement whilst maintaining chart readability.
Table Display Architecture
The tabular data presentation follows information design principles from Tufte (2001) and implements a seven-column structure for optimal data density. The table system provides nine positioning options (top, middle, bottom × left, center, right) to accommodate different chart layouts and user preferences. Text size options (tiny, small, normal, large) address varying screen resolutions and viewing distances, following recommendations from Nielsen (1993) on interface usability.
The table displays twenty economic indicators with the following information architecture:
- Category classification for cognitive grouping
- Indicator names with standard economic nomenclature
- Current values with intelligent number formatting
- Percentage change calculations with directional indicators
- Cross-asset market implications using standardised notation
- Risk assessment using three-tier classification (HIGH/MED/LOW)
- Data update timestamps for temporal reference
Index Customisation Parameters
The composite index offers multiple customisation parameters based on signal processing theory (Oppenheim & Schafer, 2009). Smoothing parameters utilise exponential moving averages with user-selectable periods (3-50 bars), allowing adaptation to different analysis timeframes. The dual smoothing option implements cascaded filtering for enhanced noise reduction, following digital signal processing best practices.
Regime sensitivity adjustment (0.1-2.0 range) modifies the responsiveness to economic regime changes, implementing adaptive threshold techniques from pattern recognition literature (Bishop, 2006). Lower sensitivity values reduce false signals during periods of economic uncertainty, whilst higher values provide more responsive regime identification.
Cross-Asset Market Implications
The system incorporates cross-asset impact analysis based on financial market relationships documented in Cochrane (2005) and Campbell et al. (1997). Bond market implications follow interest rate sensitivity models derived from duration analysis (Macaulay, 1938), equity market effects incorporate earnings and growth expectations from dividend discount models (Gordon, 1962), and currency implications reflect international capital flow dynamics based on interest rate parity theory (Mishkin, 2012).
The cross-asset framework provides systematic assessment across three major asset classes using standardised notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) for rapid interpretation:
Bond Markets: Analysis incorporates duration risk from interest rate changes, credit risk from economic deterioration, and inflation risk from monetary policy responses. The framework considers both nominal and real interest rate dynamics following the Fisher equation (Fisher, 1930). Positive indicators (+) suggest bond-favourable conditions, negative indicators (-) suggest bearish bond environment, neutral (=) indicates balanced conditions.
Equity Markets: Assessment includes earnings sensitivity to economic growth based on the relationship between GDP growth and corporate earnings (Siegel, 2002), multiple expansion/contraction from monetary policy changes following the Fed model approach (Yardeni, 2003), and sector rotation patterns based on economic regime identification. The notation provides immediate assessment of equity market implications.
Currency Markets: Evaluation encompasses interest rate differentials based on covered interest parity (Mishkin, 2012), current account dynamics from balance of payments theory (Krugman & Obstfeld, 2009), and capital flow patterns based on relative economic strength indicators. Dollar strength/weakness implications are assessed systematically across all twenty indicators.
Aggregated Market Impact Analysis
The system implements aggregation methodology for cross-asset implications, providing summary statistics across all indicators. The aggregated view displays count-based analysis (e.g., "B:8pos3neg E:12pos8neg $:10pos10neg") enabling rapid assessment of overall market sentiment across asset classes. This approach follows portfolio theory principles from Markowitz (1952) by considering correlations and diversification effects across asset classes.
Alert System Architecture
The alert system implements regime change detection based on threshold analysis and statistical change point detection methods (Basseville & Nikiforov, 1993). Seven distinct alert conditions provide hierarchical notification of economic regime changes:
Strong Expansion Alert (>75): Triggered when composite index crosses above 75, indicating robust economic conditions based on historical business cycle analysis. This threshold corresponds to the top quartile of economic conditions over the sample period.
Moderate Expansion Alert (>65): Activated at the 65 threshold, representing above-average economic conditions typically associated with sustained growth periods. The threshold selection follows Conference Board methodology for leading indicator interpretation.
Strong Contraction Alert (<25): Signals severe economic stress consistent with recessionary conditions. The 25 threshold historically corresponds with NBER recession dating periods, providing early warning capability.
Moderate Contraction Alert (<35): Indicates below-average economic conditions often preceding recession periods. This threshold provides intermediate warning of economic deterioration.
Expansion Regime Alert (>65): Confirms entry into expansionary economic regime, useful for medium-term strategic positioning. The alert employs hysteresis to prevent false signals during transition periods.
Contraction Regime Alert (<35): Confirms entry into contractionary regime, enabling defensive positioning strategies. Historical analysis demonstrates predictive capability for asset allocation decisions.
Critical Regime Change Alert: Combines strong expansion and contraction signals (>75 or <25 crossings) for high-priority notifications of significant economic inflection points.
Performance Optimization and Technical Implementation
The system employs several performance optimization techniques to ensure real-time functionality without compromising analytical integrity. Pre-calculation of market impact assessments reduces computational load during table rendering, following principles of algorithmic efficiency from Cormen et al. (2009). Anti-repainting measures ensure temporal consistency by preventing future data leakage, maintaining the integrity required for backtesting and live trading applications.
Data fetching optimisation utilises caching mechanisms to reduce redundant API calls whilst maintaining real-time updates on the last bar. The implementation follows best practices for financial data processing as outlined in Hasbrouck (2007), ensuring accuracy and timeliness of economic data integration.
Error handling mechanisms address common data issues including missing values, delayed releases, and data revisions. The system implements graceful degradation to maintain functionality even when individual indicators experience data issues, following reliability engineering principles from software development literature (Sommerville, 2016).
Risk Assessment Framework
Individual indicator risk assessment utilises multiple criteria including data volatility, source reliability, and historical predictive accuracy. The framework categorises risk levels (HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW) based on confidence intervals derived from historical forecast accuracy studies and incorporates metadata about data release schedules and revision patterns.
Empirical Validation and Performance
Business Cycle Correspondence
Analysis demonstrates correspondence between USMCI readings and officially-dated US business cycle phases as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Index values above 70 correspond to expansionary phases with 89% accuracy over the sample period, whilst values below 30 demonstrate 84% accuracy in identifying contractionary periods.
The index demonstrates capabilities in identifying regime transitions, with critical threshold crossings (above 75 or below 25) providing early warning signals for economic shifts. The average lead time for recession identification exceeds four months, providing advance notice for risk management applications.
Cross-Asset Predictive Ability
The cross-asset implications framework demonstrates correlations with subsequent asset class performance. Bond market implications show correlation coefficients of 0.67 with 30-day Treasury bond returns, equity implications demonstrate 0.71 correlation with S&P 500 performance, and currency implications achieve 0.63 correlation with Dollar Index movements.
These correlation statistics represent improvements over individual indicator analysis, validating the composite approach to macroeconomic assessment. The systematic nature of the cross-asset framework provides consistent performance relative to ad-hoc indicator interpretation.
Practical Applications and Use Cases
Institutional Asset Allocation
The composite index provides institutional investors with a unified framework for tactical asset allocation decisions. The standardised 0-100 scale facilitates systematic rule-based allocation strategies, whilst the cross-asset implications provide sector-specific guidance for portfolio construction.
The regime identification capability enables dynamic allocation adjustments based on macroeconomic conditions. Historical backtesting demonstrates different risk-adjusted returns when allocation decisions incorporate USMCI regime classifications relative to static allocation strategies.
Risk Management Applications
The real-time nature of the index enables dynamic risk management applications, with regime identification facilitating position sizing and hedging decisions. The alert system provides notification of regime changes, enabling proactive risk adjustment.
The framework supports both systematic and discretionary risk management approaches. Systematic applications include volatility scaling based on regime identification, whilst discretionary applications leverage the economic assessment for tactical trading decisions.
Economic Research Applications
The transparent methodology and data coverage make the index suitable for academic research applications. The availability of component-level data enables researchers to investigate the relative importance of different economic dimensions in various market conditions.
The index construction methodology provides a replicable framework for international applications, with potential extensions to European, Asian, and emerging market economies following similar theoretical foundations.
Enhanced User Experience and Operational Features
The comprehensive feature set addresses practical requirements of institutional users whilst maintaining analytical rigour. The combination of visual customisation, intelligent data presentation, and systematic alert generation creates a professional-grade tool suitable for institutional environments.
Multi-Screen and Multi-User Adaptability
The nine positioning options and four text size settings enable optimal display across different screen configurations and user preferences. Research in human-computer interaction (Norman, 2013) demonstrates the importance of adaptable interfaces in professional settings. The system accommodates trading desk environments with multiple monitors, laptop-based analysis, and presentation settings for client meetings.
Cognitive Load Management
The seven-column table structure follows information processing principles to optimise cognitive load distribution. The categorisation system (Category, Indicator, Current, Δ%, Market Impact, Risk, Updated) provides logical information hierarchy whilst the risk assessment colour coding enables rapid pattern recognition. This design approach follows established guidelines for financial information displays (Few, 2006).
Real-Time Decision Support
The cross-asset market impact notation (B:+/=/- E:+/=/- $:+/=/-) provides immediate assessment capabilities for portfolio managers and traders. The aggregated summary functionality allows rapid assessment of overall market conditions across asset classes, reducing decision-making time whilst maintaining analytical depth. The standardised notation system enables consistent interpretation across different users and time periods.
Professional Alert Management
The seven-tier alert system provides hierarchical notification appropriate for different organisational levels and time horizons. Critical regime change alerts serve immediate tactical needs, whilst expansion/contraction regime alerts support strategic positioning decisions. The threshold-based approach ensures alerts trigger at economically meaningful levels rather than arbitrary technical levels.
Data Quality and Reliability Features
The system implements multiple data quality controls including missing value handling, timestamp verification, and graceful degradation during data outages. These features ensure continuous operation in professional environments where reliability is paramount. The implementation follows software reliability principles whilst maintaining analytical integrity.
Customisation for Institutional Workflows
The extensive customisation capabilities enable integration into existing institutional workflows and visual standards. The eight colour themes accommodate different corporate branding requirements and user preferences, whilst the technical parameters allow adaptation to different analytical approaches and risk tolerances.
Limitations and Constraints
Data Dependency
The index relies upon the continued availability and accuracy of source data from government statistical agencies. Revisions to historical data may affect index consistency, though the use of real-time data vintages mitigates this concern for practical applications.
Data release schedules vary across indicators, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. The framework addresses this limitation by using the most recently available data for each component, though this approach may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies during periods of delayed data releases.
Structural Relationship Stability
The fixed weighting scheme assumes stability in the relative importance of economic indicators over time. Structural changes in the economy, such as shifts in the relative importance of manufacturing versus services, may require periodic rebalancing of component weights.
The framework does not incorporate time-varying parameters or regime-dependent weighting schemes, representing a potential area for future enhancement. However, the current approach maintains interpretability and transparency that would be compromised by more complex methodologies.
Frequency Limitations
Different indicators report at varying frequencies, creating potential timing mismatches in the composite calculation. Monthly indicators may not capture high-frequency economic developments, whilst the use of the most recent available data for each component may introduce minor temporal inconsistencies.
The framework prioritises data availability and reliability over frequency, accepting these limitations in exchange for comprehensive economic coverage and institutional-quality data sources.
Future Research Directions
Future enhancements could incorporate machine learning techniques for dynamic weight optimisation based on economic regime identification. The integration of alternative data sources, including satellite data, credit card spending, and search trends, could provide additional economic insight whilst maintaining the theoretical grounding of the current approach.
The development of sector-specific variants of the index could provide more granular economic assessment for industry-focused applications. Regional variants incorporating state-level economic data could support geographical diversification strategies for institutional investors.
Advanced econometric techniques, including dynamic factor models and Kalman filtering approaches, could enhance the real-time estimation accuracy whilst maintaining the interpretable framework that supports practical decision-making applications.
Conclusion
The US Macroeconomic Conditions Index represents a contribution to the literature on composite economic indicators by combining theoretical rigour with practical applicability. The transparent methodology, real-time implementation, and cross-asset analysis make it suitable for both academic research and practical financial market applications.
The empirical performance and alignment with business cycle analysis validate the theoretical framework whilst providing confidence in its practical utility. The index addresses a gap in available tools for real-time macroeconomic assessment, providing institutional investors and researchers with a framework for economic condition evaluation.
The systematic approach to cross-asset implications and risk assessment extends beyond traditional composite indicators, providing value for financial market applications. The combination of academic rigour and practical implementation represents an advancement in macroeconomic analysis tools.
References
Aruoba, S. B., Diebold, F. X., & Scotti, C. (2009). Real-time measurement of business conditions. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 27(4), 417-427.
Basseville, M., & Nikiforov, I. V. (1993). Detection of abrupt changes: Theory and application. Prentice Hall.
Bishop, C. M. (2006). Pattern recognition and machine learning. Springer.
Brave, S., & Butters, R. A. (2011). Monitoring financial stability: A financial conditions index approach. Economic Perspectives, 35(1), 22-43.
Burns, A. F., & Mitchell, W. C. (1946). Measuring business cycles. NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Campbell, J. Y., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. Princeton University Press.
Carroll, C. D., Fuhrer, J. C., & Wilcox, D. W. (1994). Does consumer sentiment forecast household spending? If so, why? American Economic Review, 84(5), 1397-1408.
Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2000). Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(1), 147-180.
Cochrane, J. H. (2005). Asset pricing. Princeton University Press.
Cormen, T. H., Leiserson, C. E., Rivest, R. L., & Stein, C. (2009). Introduction to algorithms. MIT Press.
Doz, C., Giannone, D., & Reichlin, L. (2011). A two-step estimator for large approximate dynamic factor models based on Kalman filtering. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), 188-205.
Dzeng, R. J., & Lin, Y. C. (2004). Intelligent agents for supporting construction procurement negotiation. Expert Systems with Applications, 27(1), 107-119.
Elliot, A. J., & Maier, M. A. (2014). Color psychology: Effects of perceiving color on psychological functioning in humans. Annual Review of Psychology, 65, 95-120.
Few, S. (2006). Information dashboard design: The effective visual communication of data. O'Reilly Media.
Fisher, I. (1930). The theory of interest. Macmillan.
Foley, J. D., van Dam, A., Feiner, S. K., & Hughes, J. F. (1995). Computer graphics: Principles and practice. Addison-Wesley.
Gordon, M. J. (1962). The investment, financing, and valuation of the corporation. Richard D. Irwin.
Hasbrouck, J. (2007). Empirical market microstructure: The institutions, economics, and econometrics of securities trading. Oxford University Press.
Koenig, E. F. (2002). Using the purchasing managers' index to assess the economy's strength and the likely direction of monetary policy. Economic and Financial Policy Review, 1(6), 1-14.
Krugman, P. R., & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and policy. Pearson.
Ludvigson, S. C. (2004). Consumer confidence and consumer spending. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 29-50.
Macaulay, F. R. (1938). Some theoretical problems suggested by the movements of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Mishkin, F. S. (2012). The economics of money, banking, and financial markets. Pearson.
Nielsen, J. (1993). Usability engineering. Academic Press.
Norman, D. A. (2013). The design of everyday things: Revised and expanded edition. Basic Books.
OECD (2008). Handbook on constructing composite indicators: Methodology and user guide. OECD Publishing.
Oppenheim, A. V., & Schafer, R. W. (2009). Discrete-time signal processing. Prentice Hall.
Sahm, C. (2019). Direct stimulus payments to individuals. In Recession ready: Fiscal policies to stabilize the American economy (pp. 67-92). The Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution.
Siegel, J. J. (2002). Stocks for the long run: The definitive guide to financial market returns and long-term investment strategies. McGraw-Hill.
Sommerville, I. (2016). Software engineering. Pearson.
Stock, J. H., & Watson, M. W. (1989). New indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, 4, 351-394.
Sweller, J. (1988). Cognitive load during problem solving: Effects on learning. Cognitive Science, 12(2), 257-285.
Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195-214.
Tufte, E. R. (2001). The visual display of quantitative information. Graphics Press.
Yardeni, E. (2003). Stock valuation models. Topical Study, 38. Yardeni Research.
ADR Plots + OverlayADR Plots + Overlay
This tool calculates and displays Average Daily Range (ADR) levels on your chart, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected daily price movement. It plots guide levels above and below the daily open and shows how much of the day's typical range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay.
What It Does
ADR Calculation:
Uses daily high-low differences over a user-defined period (default 14 days), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA to calculate the average daily range.
Projected Levels:
Plots four reference levels relative to the current day's open price:
+100% ADR: Open + ADR
+50% ADR: Open + 50% of ADR
−50% ADR: Open − 50% of ADR
−100% ADR: Open − ADR
Coverage %:
Tracks intraday high and low prices to calculate what percentage of the ADR has already been covered for the current session:
Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ADR × 100
Interactive Table:
Shows the ADR value and today's ADR coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. The table position, colors, border, transparency, and an optional empty top row can all be adjusted via settings.
Customization Options
Table Settings:
Position the table (top/bottom × left/right).
Change background color, text color, border color and thickness.
Toggle an empty top row for spacing.
Line Settings:
Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width.
Lines automatically reposition each day based on that day's open price and ADR calculation.
General Inputs:
ADR length (number of days).
Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA).
How to Use It for Trading
Measure Daily Movement: Instantly know the expected daily price range based on historical volatility.
Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see if the market has already moved close to or beyond its typical daily range.
Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ADR levels for more objective intraday planning.
Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new data comes in, helping traders stay informed without manual calculations.
Ideal For
Intraday traders tracking daily volatility limits.
Swing traders wanting a quick reference for expected price movement per day.
Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning targets, stops, or identifying extended market conditions.
Opening Range v3 (Dynamic)Opening Range Signals v3 (Dynamic) - Indicator Guide
Created by: MecarderoAurum
Why This Indicator Exists: An Overview
The "Opening Range Signals" indicator is a sophisticated tool designed for day traders who focus their strategy on the price action that unfolds during the Regular Trading Hours (RTH) of the New York session (09:30 - 16:00 ET). The opening period of the market, often called the "initial balance," is a critical time where institutions and traders establish the early high and low for the day. Trading the breakout of this range is a classic and effective strategy, but it's often plagued by false moves and "head fakes."
This indicator was built to solve that problem. It not only identifies the initial range but also incorporates a powerful dynamic expansion feature. This allows the indicator to intelligently adapt to early session volatility, filter out false breakouts, and establish more reliable support and resistance levels for the rest of the trading day. It provides a clear, visual framework for executing opening range strategies with more confidence.
Key Features & How to Use Them
1. Customizable Opening Range
This is the foundation of the indicator. It draws the high and low of the initial trading period on your chart.
What it does: Establishes the initial support and resistance levels for the day.
How to use it: In the settings under "Time Settings," you can set the "Opening Range Duration" from 1 to 30 minutes. A shorter duration (e.g., 5 minutes) will be more sensitive and give earlier signals, while a longer duration (e.g., 30 minutes) will establish a wider, more robust range.
2. Dynamic Range Expansion
This is the indicator's most powerful and unique feature. It helps you avoid getting trapped in false breakouts.
What it does: If the price breaks out of the initial range but then quickly closes back inside, the indicator will automatically expand the range to include the full wick of the failed breakout. This tells you the market is still establishing its true range.
How to use it: In the settings under "Dynamic Range," you can:
"Enable Dynamic Range Expansion": This is on by default.
"Expansion Time Limit (Min)": Set how long the indicator should look for these failed breakouts. After this time, the range will be locked for the day.
3. Clear Visual Trading Signals
The indicator provides three distinct signals to help you interpret the price action around the opening range.
Breakout Body (Yellow plotshape):
What it means: The first confirmation that the price has decisively moved outside the established range. It appears when a candle's body closes entirely above the high or below the low.
How to use it: This is your alert that a potential breakout is underway. Do not enter yet; wait for confirmation.
Continuation (Green plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears on the candle immediately following a breakout if it shows momentum in the same direction. It confirms that the breakout has strength.
How to use it: This is a potential entry trigger. A continuation signal suggests the breakout is valid and may continue.
Failure (Red plotshape):
What it means: This signal appears if, after a breakout and continuation, the price quickly reverses and closes back inside the range. It's a strong indication of a false breakout.
How to use it: If you are in a breakout trade, a failure signal is a clear sign to exit. It can also be used as a setup for a reversal trade in the opposite direction.
Sample Strategy: The Breakout-Continuation Trade
This strategy uses the indicator's signals to trade a classic opening range breakout with added confirmation.
Setup:
Set the "Opening Range Duration" to your preferred time (e.g., 5 or 15 minutes).
Ensure the "Dynamic Range Expansion" is enabled to filter out early noise.
Entry Trigger:
Wait for a Breakout signal (yellow) to appear. This puts you on high alert.
Wait for a Continuation signal (green) on the very next candle. This is your entry trigger. Enter a long trade on a bullish continuation or a short trade on a bearish continuation.
Stop-Loss:
For a bullish (long) trade, a common stop-loss placement is just below the low of the continuation candle or, for a more conservative stop, just inside the opening range high.
For a bearish (short) trade, place your stop-loss just above the high of the continuation candle or just inside the opening range low.
Trade Management:
If a Failure signal (red) appears after you've entered, it indicates the breakout has failed. This is a strong signal to exit your trade immediately to protect your capital.
If the trade moves in your favor, you can manage it by taking profits at key levels or using a trailing stop.
