Macro Risk On/Off SentimentOverview
As an Ichimoku trader, I've always found it crucial to understand the broader market sentiment before entering trades. That's why I developed this Macro Risk On/Off Sentiment Indicator. It's designed to provide a comprehensive view of global market risk sentiment by analysing multiple factors across different asset classes. By combining nine key market indicators, it produces an overall risk sentiment score, giving me a clearer picture of the market's mood before I apply my Ichimoku strategy.
Rationale
While Ichimoku is powerful for identifying trends and potential entry points, I realised it doesn't always capture the broader market context. Markets don't exist in isolation—they're influenced by a myriad of factors including volatility, economic indicators, and cross-asset relationships. By creating this indicator, I aimed to fill that gap, providing myself with a macro view that complements my Ichimoku analysis.
How It Works
The indicator analyses nine different market factors:
VIX (Volatility Index): Measures market expectations of near-term volatility.
S&P 500 Performance: Represents the overall US stock market performance.
US 10-Year Treasury Yield: Indicates bond market sentiment and economic outlook.
Gold Price Movement: Often seen as a safe-haven asset.
US Dollar Index: Measures the strength of the USD against a basket of currencies.
Emerging Markets Performance: Represents risk appetite for higher-risk markets.
High Yield Bond Spreads: Indicates credit market risk sentiment.
Copper/Gold Ratio: An economic growth indicator.
Put/Call Ratio: Measures overall market sentiment based on options trading.
Each factor is assigned a score based on its z-score relative to its recent history, then weighted according to its perceived importance. The overall risk score is a weighted average of these individual scores.
How I Use It
Before applying my Ichimoku strategy, I first check this indicator to gauge the overall market sentiment:
I look at the blue line plotted on the chart, which represents the overall risk score.
I note the background colour: green for risk-on (positive score) and red for risk-off (negative score).
I check the label in the lower-left corner, which provides specific FX pair recommendations and market expectations.
In a risk-on environment (positive score):
I focus on long positions in AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, EUR/USD, etc.
I look for short opportunities in USD/CAD, USD/NOK, etc.
I expect commodities and yields to rise
In a risk-off environment (negative score):
I focus on long positions in USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD
I look for short opportunities in AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/USD
I expect increased volatility and falling yields
The strength of the sentiment is reflected in how close the score is to either 1 (strong risk-on) or -1 (strong risk-off). This helps me gauge how aggressive or conservative I should be with my Ichimoku trades.
Customisation
I've designed this indicator to be flexible. You can modify it to:
Adjust the lookback period and moving average length (both default to 30)
Change the weighting of different factors in the final score calculation
Include or exclude specific factors based on your analysis needs
By combining this Macro Risk On/Off Sentiment Indicator with my Ichimoku analysis, I've found I can make more informed trading decisions, taking into account both the technical setups I see on the chart and the broader market context.
在脚本中搜索"vix"
Enhanced Market Influence DashboardDescription
The "Enhanced Market Influence Dashboard" (EMID) is a sophisticated trading indicator developed in Pine Script, designed to provide traders with a comprehensive view of the market's influences by analyzing a diverse set of financial instruments. This script integrates various market data, calculates dynamic weights based on volatility, and combines them into a composite score to help traders identify significant market movements.
Concept and Methodology
The EMID indicator aggregates data from multiple financial instruments, including forex pairs, commodities, indices, and ETFs. By calculating the median and volatility of these instruments over user-defined timelines, it dynamically adjusts their weights to reflect current market conditions. The composite score generated from these weighted values helps traders understand the overall market influence and detect significant movements.
Key Features
Market Data Integration: The script fetches real-time data from various symbols such as USD/JPY, Gold, Dollar Index (DXY), US Treasury Rate, VIX Index, Crude Oil, EUR/USD, Emerging Market Index, QYLD ETF, and Nasdaq 100 Futures.
1. Dynamic Weight Calculation: The script calculates dynamic weights for each instrument based on their volatility relative to their simple moving average. This approach ensures that more volatile instruments have a proportionally higher impact on the composite score.
2. Median and Volatility Analysis: It uses the median value and standard deviation over specified timelines to gauge the central tendency and volatility of each instrument.
3. Composite Score Generation: By normalizing the difference between current prices and their respective medians, and applying dynamic weights, the script generates a composite score that reflects the overall market sentiment.
4. Baseline Calculation: A dynamic baseline is computed as the median of the composite score over the lookback period, providing a reference point for identifying significant deviations.
5. Alerts: The script includes alert conditions to notify traders of significant market movements, either above or below the baseline by a threshold value.
Usage
To use the EMID indicator, follow these steps:
1. Input Configuration: Adjust the input parameters to suit your trading strategy. The key inputs include:
-Median Timeline: The period for calculating the median values.
-Volatility Timeline: The period for calculating volatility.
-Base Weights: Set the base weights for each financial instrument according to their perceived influence on the market.
-Adding the Indicator: Apply the EMID indicator to your chart in TradingView. Ensure that the symbols used in the script are relevant to your trading strategy and available in your TradingView subscription.
2. Interpreting the Composite Score: The composite score plotted on the chart gives an aggregated view of market influences. Compare the composite score with the baseline to identify significant market movements.
-A composite score significantly above the baseline indicates a potential market uptrend.
-A composite score significantly below the baseline indicates a potential market downtrend.
-Setting Alerts: Use the alert conditions to set up notifications for significant market movements. These alerts help you stay informed about critical changes in market sentiment.
Underlying Calculations
1. Median Calculation: The median function is applied to each instrument's price data over the specified timeline.
2. Volatility Calculation: Volatility is calculated as the standard deviation divided by the simple moving average over the volatility timeline.
3. Dynamic Weight Application: Base weights are multiplied by the respective volatility values to get dynamic weights.
4. Normalized Scores: The script normalizes the difference between current prices and their medians, then multiplies by the dynamic weights to get individual scores.
5. Composite Score: Summing all normalized and weighted scores results in the composite score.
6. Baseline: The baseline is the median of the composite score over the median timeline.
By integrating multiple market influences and dynamically adjusting weights based on volatility, the EMID indicator provides a robust tool for traders to analyze market conditions and make informed trading decisions.
Sector Rotation Hedging With Volatility Index [TradeDots]The "Sector Rotation Hedging Strategy With Volatility Index" is a comprehensive trading indicator developed to optimally leverage the S&P500 volatility index. It is designed to switch between distinct ETF sectors, strategically hedging to moderate risk exposure during harsh market volatility.
HOW DOES IT WORK
The core of this indicator is grounded on the S&P500 volatility index (VIX) close price and its 60-day moving average. This serves to determine whether the prevailing market volatility is above or below the quarterly average.
In periods of elevated market volatility, risk exposure escalates significantly. Traders retaining stocks in sectors with disproportionately high volatility face increased vulnerability to negative returns. To tackle this, our indicator employs a two-pronged approach utilizing two sequential candlestick close prices to confirm if volatility surpasses the average value.
Upon confirming above-average volatility, a hedging table is deployed to spotlight ETFs with low volatility, such as the Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU), to derisk the overall portfolio.
Conversely, in low-volatility conditions, sectors yielding higher returns like the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) are preferred. The hedging table is utilized to earmark high-return sector ETFs.
Thus, during highly volatile market periods, the strategy recommends enhancing portfolio allocation to low-volatility ETFs. During low-volatility windows, the portfolio is calibrated towards high-volatility ETFs for heightened returns.
IMPORTANT CONSIDERATION
In real trading, additional considerations encompassing trading commissions, management fees, and ancillary rotation costs should be factored in. False signals may arise, potentially leading to losses from these fees.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
Gains CorrelationsScript Description: This script is to tie the major futures indexes together at a macro level with the normal relationships (i.e. 10YR Yield, DXY, VIX inversely related to Equities) and determine how strong the correlation is between them using a 20 period average. For example, a move up in the 10YR yield while having a strong inverse covariance with equities should signal a downward move for equities. In addition, if ES and NQ are going down, and the Dow and RTY have a strong covariance, the probability of them going down as well is strong. Overall, it's a macro indicator on broad market movements.
Originality & Usefulness: The script functions by tying 7 major indexes together using correlation strength relative to the currently selected ticker. The user can change the tickers and also invert if needed. This is different from the single correlation script by adding in several as they track in tandem. The chart used is to illustrate periods where correlations are tight with equities and the lines are clustered towards the top range of strong covariance. It also highlights when Equities are far out of line with others like gold (GC). A loose covariance would mean the relationship is weak and this indicator would show a divergence in price action between them. The overall intent is to show that most indexes rise and fall together but sometimes they move faster together.
VolatilityFlex LevelsThe VolatilityFlex Levels indicator computes the degree of change (or sigma) by leveraging the selected Volatility Index (such as VIX or any user-specified volatility index). It utilizes this information to graphically represent distinct levels for a designated financial instrument. These levels include -sigma, -3/4sigma, -1/2sigma, -1/4sigma, 1/4sigma, 1/2sigma, 3/4sigma, and sigma.
COT MCIThe COT MCI script is a market indicator based on the data from the Commitment of Traders Reports.
Integration of COT Report Data:
The script sources COT data from futures contracts, including:
Treasury Bonds (ZB), Dollar Index (DX), 10-Year Treasury Notes (ZN)
Commodities like Soybeans (ZS), Soy Meal (ZM), Soy Oil (ZL), Corn (ZC), Wheat (ZW), Kansas City Wheat (KE), Pork (HE), Cattle (LE)
Precious Metals such as Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Palladium (PA), Platinum (PL)
Industrial Metals like Copper (HG), Aluminum (AUP), Steel (HRC)
Energy Products like Crude Oil (CL), Heating Oil (HO), Gasoline (RB), Natural Gas (NG), Brent Crude (BB)
Currencies such as AUD (6A), GBP (6B), CAD (6C), EUR (6E), JPY (6J), CHF (6S), NZD (6N), BRL (6L), MXN (6M), RUB (6R), ZAR (6Z)
Others: Sugar (SB), Coffee (KC), Cocoa (CC), Cotton (CT), Ethanol (EH), Rice (ZR), Oats (ZO), Whey (DC), Orange Juice (OJ), Lumber (LBS), Livestock (GF), E-mini S&P 500 (ES), E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY), E-mini Dow Jones (YM), E-mini NASDAQ-100 (NQ), VIX Futures (VX), S&P 500 (SP), DJIA (DJIA)
Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)
Functions and Logic of the Script:
COT Calculation: Determines the net positions for commercial actors and large speculators. Also Available are short and long positions of commercials or large speculators.
Position Change Analysis: Analyzes the percentage changes in net positions and open interest data over a period of 6 weeks (Weekly Chart).
Average Value Calculation: Determines short-term and long-term trend averages.
Trend Analysis: Buy and sell signals (represented in colors) are based on linear regressions and average calculations.
Usage and Application Examples:
Ideal for traders looking for a detailed analysis of market dynamics and position changes in the futures market. Suitable for decision-making in transaction timing and assessing market sentiment.
Usage Notes:
Users should be familiar with the interpretation of COT data and basic concepts of futures trading. Particularly suitable for medium to long-term trading strategies.
Expected Intraday MovementThis indicator pretends to represent the "probable" maximum movement of an asset, for the rest of the day.
This indicator should be used "only" in intraday timeframe. You will not be able to see it if you select a longer timeframe.
To calculate the probable maximum movement, the indicator uses the VIX value for each minute.
On the first candle of the day, it also calculates the probable maximum movement for the whole day, and plots it in horizontal lines.
It also allows adding a couple of extra lines (for visual purposes only).
It also allows the creation of alerts, so that when the value of the asset is close to one of the limits, it can send you an alert using the Tradingview alert system.
Summary of parameters:
Intraday bands: allows you to show/hide the bands for each minute.
Intraday first candle projection: allows to show/hide the estimated projection from the first candle of the day.
Enable alert: allows to enable/disable alerts.
Upper and lower band offset: optional offset where alarms will be triggered (e.g. 10 points before the limit is reached).
Intraday Extra Projection: allows to show/hide extra levels (for visual purposes only)
Upper and lower extra: values for extra levels.
As always, no indicator is meant to provide a single, reliable strategy to your trading regimen and no indicator or group of indicators should be relied on solely. Be sure to do your own analysis and assessments of the stock prior to taking any trades.
Safe trades everyone!
Correlational cyclesCorrelation is a statistical measure that expresses the extent to which two variables are linearly related (meaning they change together at a constant rate). It's a common tool for describing simple relationships without making a statement about cause and effect.
This script allows the user to input a multiplier to reverse the symbol input. This enables the user to look at a correlation measure between VIX and QQQ and the same time.. And get a better of understanding of what is not alligning and what is. the peaks in correlations usually signal a coming volatile period.
[GTH decimals heatmap] (wide screen advised)Preface
I share my personal general view on indicators below; skip ahead to the Description below if you are not interested.
It is my personal conviction that most - if not all - indicators rely mainly on trader's belief that they work, and in a feedback system like free markets they might become a self-fulfilling prophecy as a result, if (!) a big part of the traders believes in it, because some famous trader releases an indicator, or such person's public statement goes viral.
One of those voodoo indicators is the famous "follow-through day". There is zero statistical evidence for its validity, beyond the validity of a statement like "If it's bright at day it's usually the sun shining". The uselessness was proven exactly on its inventor's YT channel, Investors Business Daily. According to the examiner, its inventor William J. O'Neil himself could not explain the values used for this indicator. It might have been an incidental observation at some point without general validity. A.k.a "curve fitting". Still, it's being used by many today.
Another one of those indicators is the three points reversal on the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) which allegedly might potentially maybe indicate a possible shift in trend. Both indicators share an immediately problematic feature: They use absolute values. Nothing is ever absolute in a highly subjective and emotionally driven game like the markets where a lot of money can be made and lost.
Most indicators can not produce additional information since they can only re-pack price/volume action. Many times an interpretion of the distance between price and a moving average and/or the slope of a moving average deliver very similar - if not better - results than MACD, RSI etc., especially with standard settings, the origin of which are usually unknown (always a warning sign). Very few indicators can deliver information which is otherwise hard to quantify, e. g. market noise (Kaufman's Efficiency Ratio or Price Density) or volatility, standard deviation etc.
It is common knowledge that trading the markets is a game of probability. No indicator works all the time (or at all, see above). In order to make decisions based on any indicator, the probability for its validity and the conditions under which validity seemed to have occurred, must be known. Otherwise it is just coffee grounds reading under the illusion of adding to the edge, when in fact it is only adding to the trees, making it even harder to see the forest.
Description
A common belief is that whole or half-dollar prices tend to be attraction points in price action, so a number of traders include those into decision making. But are they really...?
Spoiler Alert:
Generally, it is safe to say that for the big majority of stocks there is very thin evidence for it. It depends vastly on the asset, the timeframe used and the market period (pre/post/main trading times). If at all, there seems to be an above random but still thin evidence for whole prices being significant attraction points. Interesting/surprising patterns are visible on many stocks/timeframes/session periods, though.
The screenshot shows TSLA, 30m timeframe, two heatmaps added. The top one shows pre/post-market data only, the bottom one main market data only. The cyan fields indicate the strongest occurrence, the dark blue fields indicate the weakest occurrence of open/high/low/close prices at the respective decimal. The red field indicates the current/last price decimal.
Clearly, TSLA displays a strong pre-market attraction for .00, followed by .33 and .67 and .50. This pattern of thirds seems to be a unique feature of TSLA. In the main trading session it is being diluted by a more random distribution.
Other interesting equities to examine:
SPY: No significant pattern on any timeframe!
META: Generally weak patterns on all timeframes, but interestingly on the 1D there is evidence for less randomness on O and H, more on L and most on C.
AAPL: 1D, foggy attraction areas around .35 and .12. Whole price is no attraction area at all! Very weak attraction around .73.
AMD: Strong pattern on D, W, M, attraction areas around 1/16th intervals. No patterns on lower timeframes.
AMZN: Significant differences between pre/post and main session. Strong 1/16th pattern below D in pre/post.
TAOP: Strong 1/5th pattern on all timeframes.
Read the tool tips and go explore!
Options Scalping NiftyThis Indicator is Owned by Team Option Scalping.
Top Right Corner TABLE ( 6 , 10 )
When you are trading in Nifty futures , we have to check major Stocks which is contributing to Nifty move. So we have given that in this tab.
This table consist of 5 Major Indices and 5 Stocks :
• BankNifty
• Nifty
•FinNifty
• Dow
• VIX
• RIL
• HDFCBANK
• INFY
• TCS
• ICICBANK
And following data of each stock has been provided:
• LTP
• Daily Change
• Daily Percentage Change
• 15-minute Change Percentage
• 1-Hour Change Percentage
This Table is completely different from Our other publish indicator named "Options Scalping V2". That consist of banking stocks data, and this consist of Nifty Stocks data. Data set are same but constituents are different.
Bull / Bear Market RegimeBull / Bear Market Regime
Instructions:
- A simple risk on or risk off indicator based on CBOE's Implied Correlation and VIX to highlight and indicate Bull / Bear Markets. To be used with the S&P500 index as that's the source from where the CBOE calculates and measures implied volatility & implied correlation. Can also be used with the other indices such as: Dow Jones, S&P 500, Nasdaq, & Nasdaq100, & Index ETF's such as DIA, SPY, QQQ, etc.
- Know the active regime, see the larger picture using the Daily or Weekly view, and visualize the current "Risk On (Bull) or Risk Off (Bear)" environment.
Description:
- Risk On and Risk Off simplified & visualized. Know if we are in a RISK ON or RISK OFF environment (Bull or Bear Market). (Absolute bottoms and tops will occur BEFORE a Risk On (Bull Market) or Risk Off (Bear Market) environment is confirmed!) This indicator is not meant to bottom tick or uptick market price action, but to show the active regime.
- Green: Bull Market, Risk On, low volatility, and low risk.
- Red: Bear Market, Risk Off, high volatility, and higher risk.
Buy & Sell Indicators (DAILY time frame)
- Nothing is 100% guaranteed! Can be used for short to medium term trades at the users discretion in BEAR MARKETS!!
- These signals are meant to be used during a RISK OFF / BEAR MARKET environment that tends to be accompanied with high volatility. A Risk on / Bull Market environment tends to have low volatility and endless rallies, so the signals will differ and in most instances not apply for Bull market / Risk on regime.
- The SELL signal will more often than not signal that a pullback is near in a BULL market and that a BMR-Bear Market Rally is almost over in a BEAR market.
- The BUY signal will have far more accuracy in a BEAR market-high volatility environment and can Identify short-term and major bottoms.
Always use proper sizing and risk management!
infoThis is a very simple script that i use to add useful info to my trading view charts.
specifically i track following :
1. VIX
2. RSI
3. ticker name and timeframe
Feel free to change, modify as per your requirements
Volatility Spike EstimatorPlots the Average True Range (ATR), its historical mean, the upper threshold for a volatility spike, and uses background color to show the likelihood of a volatility spike based on the current ATR value.
Green background indicates an increased likelihood of a volatility spike, while red background means a spike might have already occurred or be in progress.
Update: In this version, we added a short-term ATR calculation with an adjustable input parameter, shortTermATRLength. The likelihood of a volatility spike is now estimated based on the short-term ATR instead of the original ATR. This change makes the indicator more sensitive to recent market conditions and can help detect potential volatility spikes more quickly.
Negative Correlation SignalsThank you to Hendrik Fuchs who coded this for me - I highly recommend you...
The AUDUSD/EURUSD has a negative correlation with the DXY as does the GBPJPY/USDJPY have with the JPYX. This indicator is very simple and uses opposite candle pinbars (pinbar/doji structure can be set by you) of the two instruments on the chart whilst the stochastic RSI should be above 80 for overbought on the one but below 20 on the other for oversold (or vice versa) to generate a signal.
This indicator works as follow:
1. Choose an instrument that has an opposing negatively correlated instrument (EURUSD & DXY, GBPJPY & JPYX, US100 & VIX, etc.)
2. Add indicator to the chart and open settings.
3. Open the settings and add the correct instruments (default is set to GBPJPY & JPYX).
4. Enter your desired Stochastic RSI & candle formation settings.
You will see buy and sell signals appear on the charts. Alerts are possible (Any alert() function call). Does not repaint after close of candle. Better on higher timeframes but can also be used for scalping. Best used as confluence or as part of a trend trading system.
There are obviously many many variations that I have not even thought off - please let us know in the comment section if you find settings/timeframes/instruments that work particularly well.
CM_Williams_Vix_Fix - Market Top and Bottom with multi-timeframeThis is a modification of CM_Williams_Vix_Fix indicator to include both market tops and bottoms with multi-timeframe support. The original indicator only finds market bottoms.
All credits go to the original author ChrisMoody.
Original script link
Working:
The histogram above 0 signifies the trend of market going UP and the histogram below 0 signifies the trend of market going DOWN.
The histogram bar is calculated using "LookBack Period Standard Deviation High" number of candles. A threshold is calculated using bollinger bands and based on percentile of "Look Back Period Percentile High" number of candles.
If the histogram bar above 0 crosses the up threshold then we have market top which is signified by histogram bar having the color green. If the histogram bar below 0 crosses the down threshold then we have market bottom which is signified by histogram bar having the color red.
The market tops and bottoms can also be calculated across multiple timeframes.
Sample usage:
Suppose the market is in an uptrend and the indicator displays red market bottom bar, this might be an indication that the market has reached the end of a pullback. We can use additional indicators like stochastic or rsi to get additional confluence.
This indicator does not repaint but you need to wait for the candle to close.
Index_and_Commodity_PricesThis indicator shows real-time current day-to-day performance of 18 different indices and commodities . Here is the list of different sector ETFs that this indicator tracks
/////INDEX//////
1. BİST-100 - XU0100 - TR- Index
2. BİST-30 - XU030 - TR - Index
3. VİOP-30 - XU030D1! - Index
4. DJI - Dow Jones - Index
5. DAX - DAX Index
6. VIX - Volatilite S&P Index
//////FOREX MARKET/////
7. DXY - U.S. Dollar Index
8. EURUSD -
9. BTCUSD -
10. XAUUSD -
11. XAGUSD -
//////COMMODITY///////
12. BR1! - Brent
13. NG1! - Natural Gas
14. HRC1! -
15. ZW1! -
16. HG1! -
17. DJUSCL -
///////OTHER///////
18. US10Y -
Sigma Expected Movement [D/W/M]Based on the VIX, this indicator shows the expected movement of a stock, ETF or index.
This indicator has two standard deviations that you can set for better guidance.
You can also adjust it for a result in one day, one week or one month.
Settings
* Period
* 1st Deviation: Default 68%
* 2nd Deviation: Default 90%
*Round To Integer: If it checked, it will search for the nearest integer (+/-). Optimal for people who do Options.
*Table Position: refers to which corner you want to put the table with information.
SPX_Strikes_OpcionSigmaThis is a tool to know the strikes to use for Iron Condor.
You can change the colors for the lines.
It uses the VIX to estimate the movement of the SPX index.
VOLQ Sigma TableThis indicator replaces the implied volatility of VOLQ with the daily volatility and reflects that value into the price on the NDX chart to create the VOLQ standard deviation table.
It will only be useful for stocks related to the Nasdaq Index.
For example, NDX, QQQ or so.
And we want to predict the range of weekly fluctuations by plotting those values as a line in the future.
It is expressed as High 2σ by adding the standard deviation 2 sigma value of the VOLQ value from last week's closing price.
It is expressed as High 1σ by adding the standard deviation 1 sigma value of the VOLQ value from last week's closing price.
It is expressed as Low 1σ by subtracting the standard deviation 1 sigma value of the VOLQ value from the closing price of the previous week.
It is expressed as Low 2σ by subtracting the standard deviation 2 sigma value of the VOLQ value from last week's closing price.
1day predicts daily fluctuations.
2day predicts 2-day fluctuations.
3day predicts 3-day fluctuations.
4day predicts 4-day fluctuations.
5day predicts 5-day fluctuations.
In the settings you can select the start date to display the VOLQ line via input.
-----------------------------
What motivated me to create this indicator?
From my point of view, the reason for classifying vix volq historical volatility (realized volatility) is that the most important point is that VIXX and VolQ are calculated from implied volatility. It can be standardized as one-month volatility. There are many strike prices, but exchanges use the implied volatility of options traded on their own exchanges.
Because historical volatility depends on how the period is set, to compare with VIXX, we compare it with a month, that is, 20 business days. One-month implied volatility means (actually different depending on the strike price), because option traders expect that the one-month volatility will be this much, and it is the volatility created by volatility trading.
So we see it as the volatility expected by derivatives traders, especially volatility traders.
I'm trying to infer what the market thinks will fluctuate this much from the numbers generated there.
Willspread Chart + POIV & ADVolumen TrendColor sπThe Indicator is a combination of different types of measurements to the Price Action.
1. Spread: The Spread is set to measure your Symbol to another chosen Market like Dollar as Contra . But you can switch also between different markets.
2. Accumulation/Distribution with True Range of High or Low including OpenInterest. This only works with Futures .
--Energies, Metals, Bonds, Softs, Currencies, Livestock, live cattle , feeder cattle, lean hogs , index--
Open Interest for:
ZW, ZC, ZS, ZM, ZL, ZO, ZR, CL, RB, HO, NG, GC, SI, HG, PA, PL, ZN, ZB, ZT, ZF, CC, CT, KC, SB, JO, LB, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDMXN, NZDUSD, USDRUB, DX, BTC, ETH, LE, GF, HE, NQ, NDX, ES, SPX, RTY, VIX,
3. Accumulation/Distribution with True Range of High or Low including Volume .
4. The color shows if the Market has positive or negative (Willspread, Volume or Open Interest)
5. The Indicator also shows Divergences to Price and Willspread Movements.
If you want to have more information just give me a message.
Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes [Loxx]Implied Volatility Estimator using Black Scholes derives a estimation of implied volatility using the Black Scholes options pricing model. The Bisection algorithm is used for our purposes here. This includes the ability to adjust for dividends.
Implied Volatility
The implied volatility (IV) of an option contract is that value of the volatility of the underlying instrument which, when input in an option pricing model (such as Black–Scholes), will return a theoretical value equal to the current market price of that option. The VIX , in contrast, is a model-free estimate of Implied Volatility. The latter is viewed as being important because it represents a measure of risk for the underlying asset. Elevated Implied Volatility suggests that risks to underlying are also elevated. Ordinarily, to estimate implied volatility we rely upon Black-Scholes (1973). This implies that we are prepared to accept the assumptions of Black Scholes (1973).
Inputs
Spot price: select from 33 different types of price inputs
Strike Price: the strike price of the option you're wishing to model
Market Price: this is the market price of the option; choose, last, bid, or ask to see different results
Historical Volatility Period: the input period for historical volatility ; historical volatility isn't used in the Bisection algo, this is to serve as a comparison, even though historical volatility is from price movement of the underlying asset where as implied volatility is the volatility of the option
Historical Volatility Type: choose from various types of implied volatility , search my indicators for details on each of these
Option Base Currency: this is to calculate the risk-free rate, this is used if you wish to automatically calculate the risk-free rate instead of using the manual input. this uses the 10 year bold yield of the corresponding country
% Manual Risk-free Rate: here you can manually enter the risk-free rate
Use manual input for Risk-free Rate? : choose manual or automatic for risk-free rate
% Manual Yearly Dividend Yield: here you can manually enter the yearly dividend yield
Adjust for Dividends?: choose if you even want to use use dividends
Automatically Calculate Yearly Dividend Yield? choose if you want to use automatic vs manual dividend yield calculation
Time Now Type: choose how you want to calculate time right now, see the tool tip
Days in Year: choose how many days in the year, 365 for all days, 252 for trading days, etc
Hours Per Day: how many hours per day? 24, 8 working hours, or 6.5 trading hours
Expiry date settings: here you can specify the exact time the option expires
*** the algorithm inputs for low and high aren't to be changed unless you're working through the mathematics of how Bisection works.
Included
Option pricing panel
Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Related Indicators
Cox-Ross-Rubinstein Binomial Tree Options Pricing Model
vol_coneDraws a volatility cone on the chart, using the contract's realized volatility (rv). The inputs are:
- window: the number of past periods to use for computing the realized volatility. VIX uses 30 calendar days, which is 21 trading days, so 21 is the default.
- stdevs: the number of standard deviations that the cone will cover.
- periods to project: the length of the volatility cone.
- periods per year: the number of periods in a year. for a daily chart, this is 252. for a thirty minute chart on a contract that trades 23 hours a day, this is 23 * 2 * 252 = 11592. for an accurate cone, this input must be set correctly, according to the chart's time frame.
- history: show the lagged projections. in other words, if the cone is set to project 21 periods in the future, the lines drawn show the top and bottom edges of the cone from 23 periods ago.
- rate: the current interest or discount rate. this is used to compute the forward price of the underlying contract. using an accurate forward price allows you to compare the realized volatility projection to the implied volatility projections derived from options prices.
Example settings for a 30 minute chart of a contract that trades 23 hours per day, with 1 standard deviation, a 21 day rv calculation, and half a day projected:
- stdevs: 1
- periods to project: 23
- window: 23 * 2 * 21 = 966
- periods per year: 23 * 2 * 252 = 11592
Additionally, a table is drawn in the upper right hand corner, with several values:
- rv: the contract's current realized volatility.
- rnk: the rv's percentile rank, compared to the rv values on past bars.
- acc: the proportion of times price settled inside, versus outside, the volatility cone, "periods to project" into the future. this should be around 65-70% for most contracts when the cone is set to 1 standard deviation.
- up: the upper bound of the cone for the projection period.
- dn: the lower bound of the cone for the projection period.
Limitations:
- pinescript only seems to be able to draw a limited distance into the future. If you choose too many "periods to project", the cone will start drawing vertically at some limit.
- the cone is not totally smooth owing to the facts a) it is comprised of a limited number of lines and b) each bar does not represent the same amount of time in pinescript, as some cross weekends, session gaps, etc.
vol_boxA simple script to draw a realized volatility forecast, in the form of a box. The script calculates realized volatility using the EWMA method, using a number of periods of your choosing. Using the "periods per year", you can adjust the script to work on any time frame. For example, if you are using an hourly chart with bitcoin, there are 24 periods * 365 = 8760 periods per year. This setting is essential for the realized volatility figure to be accurate as an annualized figure, like VIX.
By default, the settings are set to mimic CBOE volatility indices. That is, 252 days per year, and 20 period window on the daily timeframe (simulating a 30 trading day period).
Inside the box are three figures:
1. The current realized volatility.
2. The rank. E.g. "10%" means the current realized volatility is less than 90% of realized volatility measures.
3. The "accuracy": how often price has closed within the box, historically.
Inputs:
stdevs: the number of standard deviations for the box
periods to project: the number of periods to forecast
window: the number of periods for calculating realized volatility
periods per year: the number of periods in one year (e.g. 252 for the "D" timeframe)
