Yield curve of the 2-10 year US Treasury Bonds, with over 50 years of history.
The Yield Curve is the interest rate on the 10 year bond minus the 2 year bond.
When it inverts (crosses under 0) a recession usually follows 6-12 months later.
It's a great leading indicator to identify risk in the macroeconomic environment.
A simple script showing US reverse repurchase agreements and Federal Treasury balance values from FRED.
This script should give a neat overview of how little faith there is in the markets from how much cash is parked in ORRPs.
I made this a while ago as a private script so here it is as a public script.
The indicator is locked to the 1 Day resolution.
Identifies when the US Treasury Yield Curve inverts (2 and 10 year bond rates).
When they ‘invert’ long-term bonds have a lower interest rate than short-term bonds. In other words, the bond market is pricing in a significant drop in future interest rates (which might be caused by the US Fed fighting off a recession in the future).
In the last 50 years, every...