ANALYSIS: AUDUSD: Going Up....But For How Long?

FX:AUDUSD   澳元/美元
798 2
Let me sum this up as well as I can in one sentence: THIS IS NOT A REVERSAL!

What I mean is that a lot of people have been waiting and waiting and waiting for this pair to reverse from it's year long down trend and start a new bullish trend up. Of course, I'm one of them. BUT I am not one of the ones who are calling a bottom now. In fact, I am saying this is NOT a bottom! According to my long term wave count, this possible up move is only a retracement wave 4. You'll see what I mean shortly if you keep reading (and why wouldn't you?).

WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW - About The Main Chart Above
Kinda self-explanatory but I'll explain a little bit. There is a POTENTIAL bullish bat (blue) that if filled would be retesting the current lows (and I mean LOWS as there are several of them!). If this bat does fill, it would be an ideal place to get LONG without much risk. However, as you see on the chart, there is also a triangle pattern developing that if it holds and prices shoot up from there, would invalidate the bat.


This is my overall LONG TERM wave count. This has not changed since my last full analysis on this pair (see Related Ideas: "AUDUSD: Analysis, Bearish Crab & Why You Should be Looking DOWN").
WEEKLY CHART - Zooming In On The Current Down Trend
DAILY CHARTS - Wave Count Of Current PA & AB=CD Patterns
I had talked about a completed AB=CD pattern in a previous post 17 days ago (red) and prices have since come up from there (see Related Ideas: "UPDATE #2: AUDUSD: Is it time to BUY? Filled Crab says YES!"). But there is now a POTENTIAL Reciprocal AB=Cd pattern setting up (blue).

According to my wave count, this pair is currently starting a wave 4-type movement up. Wave 4's are notoriously difficult to predict in terms of price action. It can bounce back and forth radically. It is possible that it is still near it's beginning so if caught at this point (especially if the bat gets filled), you could ride out the wave 4 action without worrying so much about all the back and forth PA that will occur. However, the real prize will be to find where this wave 4 will end and try to catch the wave 5 down that my wave count is predicting is yet to come. As in my previous long term analysis on this pair, I am still holding firm that we will see the 70 cents (0.70000) level and below. Maybe before the end of this year. For now, I am LONG from the bottom of the bat and will hold my position from there. If you are not yet LONG on this pair, you could wait and see if the bat gets filled and get LONG from there. If that happens, I will add to my LONG positions. OR you could wait and see if the triangle pattern gets filled and buy on a breakout. Keep in mind that the triangle could break to the downside as well and complete the bat.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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as usual, very nice analysis.. d_(^___^)_b two thumbs up!!
I have had similar too.
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