BTC Cycle Review: know when to hold 'em & when to fold 'em

Reviewing the time around the halving that produces profitable trending signals.

From the chart 1 yr and 2 months before the halving and 1 year 5 months after the halving produces profitable signals

consider pre halving to be spring
consider post halving to be summer
consider the red X between the two to be winter and unprofitable to take signals.


Posting this up as reference into the next cycle. interested to see how this plays out.

评论:

You will here this alot over the next year:" "It's only the beginning"

I'm thinking that December 2022 was the beginning and we may be 1/3 of the way through the bull market already

Since posting this, I have seen more people quoting this general cycle narrative.

Yet I don't see $ flowing in preparing for 2024. What could happen here is participants wait until the coast is clear before entering. However, b/c ppl are so confident in the halving; it gets front run. This cycle starts early and finishes early.

Instead of lasting until 1 year after the halving it heats up in early 2024 and where ever we are in q4 2024 (no matter how low it seems) will actually be the top. Trapping late comers.

This happened in 2021. Those who waited to enter until mid 2020 would hardly have believed and did not realize that q1 2021 was effectively the top.

How to protect against this? I am and have been buying Aggressive full bull during the sideways action. So when the move is "only getting started" I'll already be beginning to take profits.

i am not alone in this.